Mark Millett
Analyst · Bank of America Merrill Lynch
I think the trade cases in place will -- should be enforced and obviously, the political climate in Washington is proceeding in that manner. I think a huge case is the anti-circumvention case against Vietnam. That is ongoing and should see the light of day June, July or -- this summer. I think people need to focus more, in all honesty, on the marketplace in America than worrying too much about the import level and worrying too much about iron ore is coming off. And there seems to be a commentary or view that the price [indiscernible] softening is going to occur midyear. And perhaps, on the -- Timna, perhaps, I'm a little bit of a contrarian, but I think the market dynamics in place is -- they're strong and are certainly going to support the current pricing environment, if not more. You've got a domestic market strength that is supply-side driven today and is supported by strong and, I think, growing demand and it's going to mitigate any softness in raw materials. We mentioned, on the demand side, automotive still remains strong. It may have turned over a little bit, but it's going to remain strong for the rest of the year. Nonresidential construction is continuing to grow. Energy is coming back. All we have to do is look at the recent MSCI data, where shipments in March which I think normally, month-over-month tends to lighten up a little bit, they increased, I think, significantly, materially. And the inventory levels in the system today are at 2 months. If you look at sheet or flat roll, they're only 1.8 months which is a very, very, very low level. So supply chain inventory is very, very tight. You do have the import cases in place today and they're going to be enforced in a much stronger vein going forward. Then you have an industry with lead times stretching out. So it's, I think, a very good, positive market environment that's going to support good pricing and good spreads through the rest of the year. And it's -- I would argue that we're at a bit of a tipping point. I think inventories today are at a very precarious position. The short inventory sort of maximized turn business model or the consolidating service center industry has been accommodated these past years by a challenged market, mills with low utilization rates, lead times short and they've been able to sort of buy off the floor, almost, of the mills. And I think that's about to change. So I view the market in a very positive vein right now.