Scorpio Tankers Inc. (STNG) Q3 2026 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary

Hello, and welcome to the Scorpio Tankers Inc. Third Quarter 2026 Conference Call. I would now I would like to turn the conference over to James Doyle, Head of Corporate Development and IR. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you for joining us today. Welcome to the Scorpio Tankers Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. On the call with me today are Emanuele A. Lauro, Chief Executive Officer Robert L. Bugbee, President Cameron Mackey, Chief Operating Officer; Christopher Avella, Chief Financial Officer; Lars Dencker Nielsen, Chief Commercial Officer. Earlier today, we issued our third quarter earnings press release, which is available on our website, scorpiotankers.com. The information discussed on this call is based on information as of today, October 28, 2026, and may contain forward-looking statements that involve risk and uncertainty. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in such statements. For a discussion of these risks and uncertainties, you should review the forward-looking statement disclosure in the earnings press release as well as Scorpio Tankers' SEC filings which are available at scorpiotankers.com and sec.gov. Call participants are advised that the audio of this conference call is being broadcasted live on the Internet and is also being recorded for playback purposes. An archive of the webcast will be made available on the Investor Relations page of our website. It will be available for approximately 14 days. Will be giving a short presentation today. The presentation is available at scorpiotankers.com on the Investor Relations page under Reports and Presentations. The slides will also be available on the webcast. After the presentation, we will go to Q&A. For those asking questions, please limit the number of questions to 2. If you have an additional question, please rejoin the queue. Now I would like to introduce our Chief Executive Officer, Emanuele A. Lauro.

Thank you, James, and good morning, or good afternoon, everyone. Over the past quarters, I have spoken about our focus on things we can control. Strengthening our balance sheet, lowering our cost of capital, and cash breakevens, optimizing and renewing our fleet. And returning capital to shareholders. That approach has not changed. Today, Scorpio Tankers enters the fourth quarter of 2026 in the strongest financial position in its history. With a modern fleet and considerable flexibility to navigate the cycles ahead. In the third quarter, we generated an adjusted EBITDA of $172 million and adjusted net income of $127 million To appreciate how far we have come, 5 years ago, the company had 3.1 billion in debt and just $230 million in cash. Today, we have $655 million in debt. And more than $2 billion in cash. At the same time, we have continued to lower our daily cash breakevens which is now below $11 thousand per day per vessel. This gives us a significant structural advantage. In a strong market, we are positioned to generate substantial free cash flow. In a weaker market, our low breakevens and strong balance sheet provide resilience and the flexibility to take advantage of opportunities. We have applied the same discipline to our fleet. As I mentioned last quarter, we have sold all of them at attractive prices and selectively reinvested in modern fuel efficient tonnage. This is our approach to fleet renewal, realizing value from existing assets while strengthening the fleet for the years ahead. Turning to markets, the fourth quarter is off to a much stronger start as we enter what is typically the seasonally strongest part of the year. To date, for Q4, we have booked our LR at approximately a $181 thousand per day. MRs at $56 thousand per day. Our Handymax vessels at $40 thousand per day. While crude tankers have led the broader market in 2026, the product tankers have begun to follow, as increasing crude volumes from The Middle East are supporting higher refinery runs and refined product exports. Together with the constrained vessel supply, we believe these dynamics are creating favorable conditions for product tankers and the potential for further strengthening in rates. As always, there is uncertainty around how markets and geopolitical events will evolve. But as I said last quarter, our job is not to predict the cycle. Our job is to be prepared for it. That brings me to capital returns. Today, our board increased the quarterly dividend from $0.40 per share to $0.75 per share This is an increase of approximately 67%. This decision reflects the strength of our balance sheet and our confidence in the company's ability to return capital to shareholders through the cycle. We expect to continue increasing the dividend annually. We have built a platform that can generate meaningful cash flow in strong markets, remain resilient in weaker ones, and preserve the flexibility to invest when the opportunity arises. That philosophy has guided us for many years, and it will continue to guide us in the years ahead. Just would like to thank you for your continued support. My opening remarks are over, and I will now I would like to turn the call to Robert.

Thank you very much, Emanuele. Wow. What a fantastic report this is. But there are a few things I would like to highlight that are not necessarily on this report. Clearly. So first of all, the cash balance of today does not really demonstrate the real strength of the company. We should note that the spot revenue cash that is being generated in the whole of April has had no distribution yet from our pools to the company. So, in this sense, the cash balance is understated. Pro forma, we are still awaiting the conclusion of the sale for a $145 million from 2 LR2 sales with later. For delivery later this year. Lastly, we are going to do something unusual. I mean, these are special earnings. I think you should see what we are seeing underneath this. But our markets have accelerated quite steadily since July. And as we approach, as Emanuele indicated, the strongest part of our year, bearing in mind this is still only October and we are not even near Thanksgiving yet. I think it is worth looking at the monthly movements since July in our market. The MRs in July earned approximately 29 thousand. In August 30 thousand in September 2032, in October, $53 thousand; and in November for the first 37%. Nearly 70 thousand. The LR2s, in July earned $55 thousand; August, $71 thousand; September, $82 thousand; October, $168 thousand. And for 37% so far in November, approximately $215 thousand a day. I think this is really showing how the refineries have been steadily receiving more oil and as they receive more oil, they export it. And all of this is before we get to the strongest, the real strength in the market traditionally which normally comes a week with between a week before thanksgiving and 2 weeks after. With that, I would like to pass it over to James.

Thanks, Robert. 57, please. Product tanker earnings have been improving for several months. But the real acceleration has come in just the past few weeks, as Robert has highlighted. Since May, Middle East crude exports have more than doubled from 8 million barrels a bit per day to nearly 17 million. The additional crude supply has helped drive a 4 million barrel-per-day increase in global refinery runs. Translating into higher product exports and stronger tanker rates. And we believe the fundamentals point to further strengthening. Low inventories, resilient demand, rising refinery runs, longer trade routes and limited vessel supply. Slide 8, please. In September, seaborne product exports reached 20.6 million barrels per day, a 14% increase from their May lows. Much of this growth has been driven by Asia, where increased crude availability has allowed refinery runs and exports to increase. Around 20% of Asian exports are going long-haul to destinations West of the Suez Canal. This has strengthened LR2 and MR rates in Asia, but also globally. As longer voyages and fleet repositioning tighten supply. Slide 9, please. There has been considerable discussion about inventory restocking. With more than 600 million barrels drawn since the start of the conflict. But there is an important point that often gets overlooked. Underlying demand remains strong. Much of the additional refinery output will first be needed to meet current consumption, supporting higher product tanker volumes. Only after that can inventories begin to rebuild, creating another potential tailwind for tanker demand. In other words, we see 2 sources of demand meeting today's consumption and replacing yesterday's draws. Slide 10, please. Over the past decade, global refining capacity has shifted further away from the end consumer, and overall net capacity growth has been limited. And the strength in refining margins today reflects just how tight global refining capacity has become and how far that capacity is from the end consumer. As a result, product tanker ton-mile demand has increased by more than 20% since 2019. And with refinery runs and exports continuing to rise, we expect further growth. in ton-mile demand. Slide 11, please. Turning to vessel supply. Approximately 15% of the global tanker fleet is sanctioned with 30 with 70% of those vessels over 20 years old. While sanctions have attracted significant attention, the broader fleet was already aging. Even after next year's scheduled deliveries, approximately 26% of the fleet will be 20 years and older. The aging of the fleet is a structural challenge regardless of sanctions. And at some point, will reduce fleet growth through scrapping. Fly 12, please. This brings us to another important point about vessel supply. Nearly half the product tanker order book consists of LR2s. However, 69% of the existing LR2 fleet is currently trading crude oil. And we expect many of these vessels to remain in that market. Adjusting for LR2s trading crude, the effective supply growth could be closer to 4% over the next 3 years. But factoring in accelerated retirements of older vessels, that figure could fall to just 1%. The key takeaway is that headline fleet growth overstates the actual increase in clean trading capacity. And this is happening against the backdrop of rising demand, increasing refinery runs, low inventories and longer trade routes. We believe this creates a favorable environment for product tankers with room for further strengthening. And with that, I will turn it over to Christopher Avella.

Thank you, James. And good morning or good afternoon, everyone. Slide 14, please. This past quarter, we generated $172 million in adjusted EBITDA and $127 million in adjusted net income. We also recorded $153 million gain on the sales of 5 vessels, repaid $200 million in debt through the early redemption of our Nordic bonds and paid $23 million in dividends. The chart on the right shows the evolution of our net debt position since December 2021. Our capital allocation policy over this period has been headlined by debt reduction followed by a disciplined and sustainable dividend and opportunistic share buybacks. As you can see, this approach has resulted in a reduction of our net debt position by $4.5 billion from a net debt balance of $2.9 billion at the end of 2021 to a net cash position of $1.4 billion or $27 per share as of today. Our balance sheet has never been stronger and our outlook for the sector is optimistic. It is against this backdrop that we are pleased to announce a 67% increase in our quarterly dividend from $0.45 per share to $0.75 per share. Slide 15, please. Our focus over the past 4 years has not only been on reducing our debt burden, but also the optimization of our capital structure through transactions, which have lowered the company's cost of capital. The chart on the left shows our outstanding debt by type since December 2021. As you can see, our capital structure has been completely transformed. From $3.2 billion of debt comprising primarily of expensive lease financing to $655 million of debt comprised mostly of fixed rate convertible debt with a 1% yield to maturity. These convertible notes were issued in April and May of this year and have a $655 million face value. $230 million of this was issued in a follow on offering priced at a 10% premium to par. So while the notes carry a 1.75% fixed coupon, the premium to par achieved on the follow on offering reduced the combined yield to maturity to below 1%. The notes are convertible under certain conditions at $99 per share. This transaction, along with the sales of vessels at cyclically high prices has enabled us to repay $357 million of legacy secured debt and to redeem our $200 million 7.5% coupon-rate senior unsecured notes. The chart on the right shows the significant decline in our borrowing costs over the past 4 years. We have $50 million of secured debt outstanding through a credit facility with Bank of America, which was executed earlier this year. We also recently executed a $90 million credit facility with Standard Chartered Bank and DekaBank. This facility is currently undrawn, and we have until October 31, 2027 to draw down on it. Both of these facilities carry margins at just 120 basis points and have 7-year tenures from their respective drawdown dates. Slide 16, please. The chart on the left shows our liquidity profile. We had $2.1 billion in cash as of October 26, and an additional $483 million in availability under revolving credit facilities for a total of $2.5 billion in available liquidity. As Robert mentioned, this balance does not include the full hire payments for October, which we expect to be paid within the next week for over $100 million. With the strong fourth quarter outlook and the sales of 2 LR2s for over $140 million which are pending closing, we expect our liquidity position to grow through the end of the year. We currently have commitments to purchase 17 new building vessels and to contribute equity for the minority interest in a joint venture of 8 VLCCs under construction. The chart on the top right is a waterfall reflecting our remaining commitments under these agreements, which total approximately $1.3 billion. Our disciplined allocation of capital over the past 4 years has provided us with the financial flexibility to enter into these agreements, and we highlight that we can afford all of these vessels without the need to obtain debt financing. This puts us in a very competitive position especially during a period when benchmarked interest rates are on the rise. Slide 17, please. Our cash breakeven rate which include vessel operating costs, cash G&A, cash interest payments, commitment fees, and regularly scheduled loan amortization are below $11 thousand per day. To illustrate our cash generation potential at these cash breakeven levels, at $30 thousand per day, the company can generate up to $520 million in cash flow per year, and at $60 thousand per day, the company can generate up to $1.3 billion in cash flow per year. This concludes our presentation for today. I would like to thank everyone for their time and attention. And now I would like to turn the call over to Q&A.

We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then 1 on your touch tone phone. If you are using a speaker phone, please pick up your handset before pressing any keys. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question today comes from Omar Nokta with Clarksons Securities. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Hey, guys. Morning. Good afternoon. Clearly, another solid quarter here in the bag, and your bookings for the fourth quarter are quite strong. And, Robert, as you perhaps illustrated, seems just like a staircase improvement with each passing month. I do have a mix of a market and Scorpio specific question here. On the last call, Lars, I recall you mentioned that it makes sense for us when we think about what you can capture on the LR2s we should be looking at spot market averages for crude AFRAS and clean LR2s. And it looks based off of your guidance for the fourth quarter that is right there right in the middle. Can you just talk a bit about that dynamic a bit more how you are trading the LR2s today? And I think you mentioned last quarter that 4 LR2s, are trading dirty. Just wanted to see if you could give us an update on that and just in general, how do you think about the LR2 market from here? How it is developing? And thoughts as we move forward given a good chunk of the fleet's transition to the dirty trade. Sorry for the long winded question. Thank you.

Hey, Omar, I am going to try to answer as best as I can. I think if you go back when we had the last call, I think we had if you look at the overall spot exposure on LR2s, we had about 1 in 8 voyages in crude. Today, as things stand, we probably have 1 in 3 in the third quarter. And that was kind of a reflection of where we saw the crude market was relative to the clean market. We kept powder dry on some of our clean ships with the anticipation that the clean was at some point going to ramp up in particular because you had seen so many of the LR twos as we also talked the last time, moving into dirty, that kind of direction of travel continued. And you got a. You know, probably 70% of the LR2s are now trading in dirty. I think that is by end of September. You have obviously seen now with the increasing crude exports, etcetera, going in, higher refinery runs, and so on and suddenly, you know, the fuse was lit and, the LR2 rates that you are seeing today are astronomical. So you today have a kind of a perfect situation really where because of the lack of supply and the crew market, because of the sanctioned fleets on the Aframaxes, you have a very strong Aframax market as well, a little bit more volatile. And now you have a resurgence in the LR twos that we see a lot of follow on, and we can also see it on the on the on the fixtures that we have been doing this week as well. That rates are extremely high. So, you know, as we are looking into and heading into the winter market and as Robert said, the party has not really started yet. So, we are very kind of happy with our position in terms of how we position our LR2s vis a vis our Aframaxes. and we are comfortable with that.

Thanks, Lars. Very helpful color and context. And maybe just as a second question, and I will pass it over. Maybe just sticking with the market We have. You discussed the LR2s. Can you just maybe talk about the MRs? We saw fireworks during the second quarter, a bit of a moderation in the third. But here, things have gone beyond what we have been seeing in there are at cyclical or I guess, all time highs right now. In terms of spot rates. What is. what is been driving that strengthening here? In the past few weeks?

Well, first of all, it is the first time in my career that I have ever seen a market in Asia being this strong. We have seen, you know, spikes in Asia where the West was weak, Volatility, we have talked a lot about in The US Gulf. We have seen very high rates, and then moving down very, very quickly. But, you know, as of today, on the October 28, you know, you have got rates in the U.S. Gulf trading north of $80, and you have got rates in Asia on long-haul round voyages. All trading between 70 and 80 thousand dollars. This has never been seen before. So, you know, it is that there is plenty of cargo and, you know, The US story we have talked about before, we have talked about the China product export issues. But the thing is that you know, a lot of these ships are going longer haul. And, you know, we have had the Australian demand story going on for a number of years. That continues. But now we are seeing a lot more moving into The US West Coast and also into South America, the, you know, West Coast Of South America. And, obviously, ton-miles means a lot in what we are doing in these things. Frankly, I think I think it goes across any type of ship you are dealing with. Every barrel that you are moving is traveling further and it is slower. there is a lot of double handling taking place. A lot more ships are being soaked up. In different areas, which is required in particular of course, in The Middle East, but it is not only to that area. So you know, even though you would say purely on ton miles that we are maybe slightly up but there is a lot more requirement for ships generally in the market that requires the ships to double handle, and we are seeing, obviously, a kind of a shrinkage in supply of vessels in all markets. Thanks, Lars. Very helpful. I appreciate that. I will pass it back.

The next question comes from Chris Robertson with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Hi, good morning, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. Maybe a question for Christopher, just looking at the convertible with the market strengthening here, presumably, there will be a response in the equity, and I think you alluded earlier that conversion price would be around $99. So just wondering how you are thinking about that in terms of early redemption, certainly gonna be a lot of cash generation here with the current strong market.

Sure, Christopher, Thanks for the question. Just to specific, the conversion price is $99 that is convertible at the option of the holders right now. We are in a window where the company cannot redeem it. So if we were to do anything, it would be market purchases. We are not gonna forecast that at the moment. So right now, you know, we are happy with where we are with the convertible. You know, and it is likely to likely to stay at that level.

Alright. Yeah. I got it. Thank you for that. Just turning to a more broader market question, maybe a little bit more specific pertaining to geopolitics here. But I am seeing some of the Russian cargoes, starting to come to The US. Is there going to be any impact on the mainstream like legitimate tanker market? Or is this more of a for lack of a better term, sideshow?

I mean, I will start off and just say it is gonna be a sideshow. it is a flash in the pan. The volumes are so small in the overall market that it will not move the needle in terms of the normal tanker trade. On top of that, if you were to talk about ships that were sanctioned, most of them are going to be 20 years old and so on So, you know, anything that deals with this particular issue in its narrow sense will have very limited impact on our market. Great. Thanks. Thank you very much. I will turn it over.

The next question comes from Gregory Lewis with BTIG. Please go ahead.

Yeah. Hi. Thank you, and good morning, good afternoon, everybody, and thanks for taking my question. I would love to hear a little bit more how we thought about setting the dividend where it is. You know, you would I think you will end the slide, you have the $11 thousand breakeven. But, you know, it was it was a substantial dividend increase. But so just kinda curious you know, how we kind of backed into that $0.75 quarterly dividend rate?

Sure. I think that is a great question. So I think it is very clear that you know, the company as Emanuele alluded to right from the beginning of the call has really taken a quantum step up in its balance sheet strength. And, you know, we are the lore says, you know, the party has not yet begun. In a seasonal basis in products is another good statement. And so we are confident that we can fulfill our first requirement any form of dividend that we can maintain its regularity and it is sustainable throughout the cycle. And the second 1 is that, as Emanuele said, is that we can raise that dividend. Every year. And so we wanted to create a point where it was so obvious. We are going to make a strong step upwards. Which I think we have done 67%. it is a strong step upwards. And make a strong start whilst knowing that absolutely that you know, even if our hopes or expectations do not come true for whatever reason, that we still got room to move it upwards. Even if the market collapses and we are very. What we want to do with the dividend is to provide some sort of certainty for shareholders and not just return, but some sort of certainty in uncertain times a let's say, a trampoline We have the benefits in the company of, you know, of interest rate increases at the moment with whatever the. Fed does today, or does not do if they raise interest rates will be an unusual company that is accretive. So we are not really worried about that. But that is the thinking behind it. We have not yet. We spent so much time in this last month and actually handling a spot market that is been super strong and super volatile. Earning as much money. We have not created scientific tested process for this. We have listened to the counseling of some of our top long only shareholders. As to what they would like to see and why they would like to have a dividend and why they would like to have a sustainable business and why they would like to have it increasing. So this I would see as a as a as a significant step in a number of reoccurring steps. Okay, super helpful. Thank you for the time, everybody.

Have a great day. Thank you. The next question comes from Stephanie Moore with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Hi. Good morning. Good afternoon. Everybody. Thank you. Maybe just taking a step back here and talking a little bit about the broader market dynamics here. I guess with the Middle East supply and refinery operations recovering, are you thinking about the net impact on just overall demand? I mean, you definitely called out just the consumption and then restocking opportunity, but maybe if you could just bucket where you see the biggest opportunity in terms of export volumes out of the region. And also, timing wise, how long of a runway would we expect to see some of these demand drivers pan out? Thank you.

Thanks, Stephanie, I will take that. So, look, from a demand perspective, things have remained quite strong. If you go back to the lows in May, I think refined product demand excluding fuel oil was around 70 million barrels per day. Right now, we are probably at 74 million. And if you fast forward a year from now, we could be at 76. So we can see 2 million barrels more of demand growth I think the biggest opportunities for where that supply comes from will be The Middle East and also continued exports out of Asia. And we expect that to continue really if you look at forecasted refinery runs through 2027. There could be a chance that supplies are very tight and balances are very tight in Q4 and Q1 of this year. So we would not expect restocking until potentially end of next year. So there is there is some good runway there. And right now, fundamentals look really strong.

Absolutely. Thank you. And then just my follow-up question. I think 1 area that might be you know, we get the question would be just overall appetite to maybe increase term coverage. Obviously, spot markets are strengthening. You know, how do you kind of balance preserving upside, but also maybe locking in some attractive rates as well? Thank you.

I will take that. Start with Lars can add any detail if he wants to. So I think that we frame everything in let's say, our overall balance of charters and we have it and risk and reward. So as James said, we have a very optimistic view of the market at the moment. You know, things changed a lot 4, 5 weeks ago when suddenly we started to see more oil transit through the Straits of Hormuz. Which enabled those refineries to be back up and exporting. And set the stage for what James has just been talking. So within that, we do not have to make a defensive call. there is no reason to make a call on the actual market at the moment. That you can see by the rates that have. it is happened very quickly. The. This ripping up in LR2s, the ripping up that is going on right now in the MR. So, I mean, you know, I spoke earlier about MR's first part of November you know, beginning 2070. And Lars is already talking this morning in the eighties. And that is you have to wait a little bit for the charter market to catch up. So right now, we are very happy with the situation. We can. We are right in front of winter, and there is no urgency to put time charter coverage on. As we move forward, we will do what we have done before. We will have some vessels coming off, and we are looking to 1 way of looking at it would be you know, what does it take for us in terms of secure income to actually cover all of our everything. So, basically, we have a charter fleet that is enabling the spot fleet to operate at zero as a operating cash breakeven. it is 1 way we could look at this going forward. We have not yet decided, but I would say that you could expect us to continue what we have been doing. Which is at opportune times in the market to continue to add time charter coverage. But as to timing, I. I will pass that to Lars at the moment. Lars?

Robert. I think you encapsulated it perfectly well. We look at it opportunistically as ships come off. We see the various market positions are at the time. Then we make a decision that follows that the market in our view and the forward curve.

The next question comes from Liam Burke with B. Riley. Please go ahead.

Yes. Thank you. You have a few LR twos trading dirty. Do you just assume you want to leave them as be, or is there any thought of bringing them back into the clean market?

As things stand right now, Liam, they will stay dirty as they are trading just as fine as they are doing right now. If the spread changes, then we will make a decision The fungibility, as you probably know, between LR2s and Aframaxes have kind of increased to some extent, and the availability of cleanup cargoes have increased. And the appetite from end users have also increased in enabling us to do so. But as markets are as they are today, we are not gonna change anything Great. Thank you.

And I think this is for James. James, refinery margins peaked. They are coming off, record highs, I think, here. Is that any concern to rates or all the things you laid out in your prepared comments offsetting any kind of decline in refinery margins?

Look, think margins, as you highlighted, were at record levels, right, and they are records for a reason. What we see is high refinery runs, which is beneficial to products, but probably comes at the cost of margins, right? So the tightness you see on the supply demand side, right, will eventually be eased by more exports, which benefits us. So I think margins will still remain healthy because the reality is there is not a lot of refineries being built over the next few years. And actually, 90% of the capacity that is coming on is between India and China. And most of the Indian product or a portion of it gets exported. So we view this as structurally positive. Great. Thank you. Thanks, Liam.

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Emanuele A. Lauro for any closing remarks.

Thank you, operator. No closing remarks other than thanking everybody for their time and attention today and look forward to speaking in the weeks ahead. The call is over. Thank you.

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.