Earnings Labs

StubHub Holdings, Inc. (STUB)

Q3 2025 Earnings Call· Mon, Nov 17, 2025

$7.44

+2.55%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-5.93%

1 Week

-6.32%

1 Month

+9.20%

vs S&P

+7.58%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to StubHub's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference call is being recorded today, November 13, 2025. I will now turn the call over to Clinton Hooks with StubHub.

Clinton Hooks

Analyst

Thank you for joining us to discuss StubHub's Third quarter 2025 results. For reference, our third quarter 2025 earnings release and presentation are available under the Quarterly Results section of our Investor Relations website at investors.stubhub.com. Before we begin, please note that today's discussion will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws. These statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations. We assume no responsibility for updating these statements. Therefore, please exercise caution in relying on them. For detailed risk factors, please refer to our SEC filings. We'll also discuss certain non-GAAP measures, which we believe are useful to investors for evaluating our performance. These measures should not be considered in isolation or as substitutes for GAAP results. Full reconciliations to GAAP measures are available in our earnings release. Unless otherwise noted, our profitability and EBITDA discussions today refer to non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA. Joining me today are Eric Baker, our Founder, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Connie James, our Chief Financial Officer. They will provide opening remarks, then take questions. With that, I'll turn it over to Eric.

Eric Baker

Analyst

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our first earnings call as a public company. I want to welcome all our investors, both those who supported us throughout our private journey and those who are new to the StubHub story. We're grateful for your trust and partnership, as we embark on this next chapter together. Today, I'll focus primarily on the progress we've made in establishing StubHub as a leading live event ticketing marketplace and on our strategic initiatives. I'll then hand it over to Connie to speak to our third quarter financial performance. While we won't be providing detailed 2026 guidance on today's call, we look forward to sharing our outlook during our next earnings call in early 2026. With that said, I want to begin by stepping back and discussing the business that we have built over the last 2 decades and share the long-term vision of where we are going, one that continues to be defined by a customer-focused and relentless drive to make live entertainment accessible to everyone everywhere. The past few years have been transformative for our business. We completed the StubHub acquisition, navigated the pandemic, fully rebuilt StubHub's technology stack, restored StubHub as the clear category leader and have now entered the public market. Our thesis for the acquisition was to restore StubHub's market leadership in North America and create a unified global ticketing marketplace. Our business today is the result of the successful execution of that thesis, and we are very proud of the asset that exists as a result. Today, StubHub operates what we believe is the largest global secondary ticketing marketplace for live event tickets, selling over 40 million tickets annually across more than 200 countries and territories from over 1 million sellers all over the world. Our…

Constance James

Analyst

Thanks, Eric. Before I discuss our third quarter financial performance, I'd like to share our financial philosophy that guides our decision-making, and ultimately, how we look to drive long-term shareholder value. To that end, the foundation of our value creation approach rests on 3 financial principles. First, we prioritize driving sustainable market share growth by strategically investing in our marketplace ecosystem. Second, we are committed to long-term margin expansion through operational discipline and the natural leverage in our marketplace model. Third, we focus relentlessly on cash flow generation. Our business model efficiently converts adjusted EBITDA into free cash flow, providing us the financial flexibility to reinvest in the business and optimize our capital structure. With that context, let's turn to our third quarter results, beginning with our key marketplace metrics, gross merchandise sales, or GMS. GMS represents the total economic value flowing through our platform and directly drives the network effects that make StubHub increasingly valuable to both buyers and sellers. Our GMS reached $2.4 billion in the third quarter, representing 11% growth from the prior year period. This performance demonstrates the fundamental strength of our marketplace even as we navigated the anticipated impact of the federally mandated all-in pricing in the United States earlier this year. As expected, the transition has reduced conversion rates as customers adjusted to the new pricing format. Based on our internal estimates previously disclosed, we believe the implementation of all-in pricing had an estimated 10% one-time impact on the size of the North American secondary ticketing market. We expect this transition effect will continue to influence year-over-year comparisons through May 2026 as we cycle through the full 12-month period following the May 2025 implementation date. Even with this temporary growth headwind, our results demonstrate the resilience of our business model and our ability to…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from the line of Doug Anmuth with JPMorgan.

Constance James

Analyst

Eric, during 2025, you've made some substantial investments in core resale market share and also direct issuance. Can you just talk about the returns you're seeing on those 2 areas of spending and whether you expect those to continue in '26? And then, I know there's some noise as Eric mentioned in the 4Q on sales versus last year, but just curious on the thought process in not providing a 4Q guide in that you're halfway through the quarter.

Eric Baker

Analyst

Sure. Thanks for the question, Doug. Appreciate it. So I think you had a few things in there in terms of what we've been doing with market share investment, how we think about that and how we think about the outlook for the business. Again, I think as we said in our opening remarks, we take a long-term approach, so we are not providing guidance, and we'll be talking about 2026 when we're on our next call. But with that being said, let me address some of the things that you brought up. So first is, as you noted and as we talked about, we had a real focus this year in investing to take market share and to do that in a very systematic way. And we've been extremely pleased with the results. I think we can see in this quarter that has just passed that, that has continued to pace. Our relative market share, I think, as I said, is about 4x. And I think everyone can see what has happened out there in the market in a great way. I think what's exciting about that, again, is that we're really creating permanent advantages in terms of how people are situated. One of the things I mentioned at the opening was around the point-of-sale system. And we've seen that what we've deployed in the point-of-sale system has rapidly been taking share ahead of schedule, moving us into a dominant position, which obviously feeds the data that we have, feeds the -- we get increased durable share as people use the POS to operate their business, and it provides a great backbone for our advertising business and sponsored listings. So we're very excited about all of that. I think Connie addressed, as we go and we look forward from where we sit, there's an extremely strong market for live events. It's as strong as ever. I think Connie addressed their shifts in terms of when on sales may happen. But as we look at it, everything is going at pace.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Eric Sheridan with Goldman Sachs.

Eric Sheridan

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

As we turn the page on 2025, curious how you're thinking about aligning marketing investments over the medium to long term? And what signals you're getting in terms of the receptivity to marketing investments to continue to grow the user base across all the array of offerings and products you're bringing to the market?

Eric Baker

Analyst · Goldman Sachs.

Great. Eric, thank you for the question. And I think some of that echoes what I also would follow up. And I think as Doug asked about some of the various investments, and I talked about market share, and we're seeing great traction and durability in that as we sort of see the flywheel is working, I think the other thing which we've talked about is, obviously, we're very excited about our direct issuance business. And what that for us really means open distribution. And to sort of recap what that is, is we really view it as, look, our mission backing up is that for fans. We want to give them easy access to the events they want to go to so they can access those live events and get there in a very easy, delightful fashion. We also want to assist content in making sure tickets don't go unsold, seats don't go empty, and they can maximize their revenue. And that's a real pressing issue for people. I think even Live Nation on their most recent call mentioned that 98% of their events do not sell out. And there's tons of tickets, obviously, don't sell. Sports has a similar dynamic, where they're trying to fill arenas. And so I think this ties into the direct issuance initiative, and to your question, which is that we have seen a tremendous receptivity, which is that in order to solve this issue that rights owners have in order to try and increase their revenue, increase throughput, get people into the arenas, they see the wealth of data and distribution we have, that has sort of led to, obviously, Major League Baseball, where we're seeing great receptivity from the teams. We talked about the festival channel, where we signed up Peachtree and LED, and we've been doing a great job with that. Tying that back to your question in terms of some of the marketing spend, we also talked about as we built that out, we've made the investment to prove it. And we see rights owners and people in the queue coming on board where it does not require any financial payment for them to access our open distribution. And so similar to how teams like the Dodgers have done that, when I was speaking with Shaun and Raj just last week in New York, and we were looking at the pipeline, the majority of the pipeline, as it's transitioning, does not involve any cash payment from us. And so we think this is going in an excellent direction and tracking the way we want to see it.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Justin Post with Bank of America.

Justin Post

Analyst · Bank of America.

Wondering if you could give us any visibility on the sponsored listing ad launch, when you're thinking the timing is and how quickly that could ramp? And then second, maybe talk more about the Major League Baseball deal, are you going to get direct tickets from the league? And are you seeing more productive discussions across multiple leagues?

Eric Baker

Analyst · Bank of America.

Excellent. Justin, thank you for the question. Appreciate it. I think you're asking -- let me address some of the advertising generally, including sponsored listings, then I can talk about what you asked about MLB. So let's talk about advertising. And first, let me just frame it. The way we think of our opportunity in advertising is, first of all, doing things which are value-added for our consumer base to enhance that experience and doing it for other members in the ecosystem who are selling tickets. There's 2 flavors of that advertising. One is, again, where you have things like the Booking.com deal that we did, where we work with different potential partners so that post-purchase people, if you're traveling again, we have a huge international business. People travel for these events, you can book through Booking and so forth. And so that Booking has been a great proof point and a start to that. The second, which you mentioned, is sponsored listings. And so on sponsored listings, just to explain what that is, is basically that we have sellers on our platform, and these sellers are looking to sell their tickets. And as in many marketplaces, we put the ability for these people to pay to bump their listings to the top and sort of feature them. This is not reinventing the wheel. Here's what we're excited about and get to sort of why we're excited about the progress and the promise for it. We have 2 great aspects to it that are unique. One is that these people are selling a perishable item. So it expires, and then, it's not worth anything. So it's very important to get that in front of people. And most of the supply that we have on our platform is competing to try…

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Mark Mahaney with Evercore.

Mark Stephen Mahaney

Analyst · Evercore.

Eric, I just want to ask about the direct issuance market. And if you think about it in terms of low, medium, high-hanging fruit, if there's such an expression, where do you think the best opportunities are for StubHub in the next 2 to 3 years? Is it more international? Is it more U.S.? Is it more sports? Is it more live theater? Like what are the best opportunities to ramp up into this promising market?

Eric Baker

Analyst · Evercore.

Sure. Thank you, Mark. Appreciate it. Let me again say that what we are talking about doing for content is universal to all content. So when I talk -- talking with Shaun the other day, when you go in and you say, we have a solution where we can actually get you access to more data, more distribution, more people nonexclusively to help drive your revenue and fill seats, people are like, this is great. They're very receptive to it. Because remember, what content is trying to solve every day is increasing the revenue, increasing the attendance and doing that in a way that works for fans. And we -- obviously, that's what we've been doing for years and years. So it's really just about making that as easy as possible from a product and service solution. So that's a long way of saying we're seeing a very diverse pipeline across the board. There's obviously multiple sports leagues in the United States. But globally, we've said before, we worked with European soccer franchises. Festivals we work with, I cited 2, that are domestic, but there are many internationally that we're looking at working with. We talked about the increased ramp in MLB. So I think really, this is something that is attractive across the board. Let me leave you with one other thought, Mark, on this, is that another way to think about it, and we've said this, is that this is not something which is competing with primary ticketing. We are not trying to replace primary ticketing companies. You can imagine us partnering with primary ticketing companies in order to open up our distribution to them. And that being a very powerful way to access anything across the planet because, again, this is a $150 billion-plus market. So it is a huge ocean to fish in, and we're very excited about it.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Brian Pitz with BMO Capital Markets.

Brian Pitz

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets.

Maybe a broader question on how StubHub is thinking about the future of Agentic search and ticket buying. Maybe you could provide us your views on how agents will impact either future take rates or advertising revenue going forward as we are hearing more and more industry discussions around Agentic capabilities in live event ticketing?

Eric Baker

Analyst · BMO Capital Markets.

Yes. No, thank you, Brian, and thank you for the question on AI, which is obviously a very exciting topic. And so let me open by just saying, in the immediate term, everything has been business as usual with consumers using the channels that they use, and that continues. That being said, as you say, and we're always thinking long term and how this works. And I'll tell you why we're excited about the opportunities and how we think it will play out. The first thing is that any time there's top-of-the-funnel ways to reach people in competitive ways with people giving you that access top of the funnel to reach people and compete, which is traditional Google search and other methods, we believe it's extremely powerful. We believe we're extremely well positioned, and what we're seeing is that when you're looking at where you send traffic and where the agent needs to go and how they need to, they're solving for the best solution for that consumer, which naturally goes back to who has that supply chain, who has the catalog, who can be relied on for the ticket, who has the best selection, et cetera. So as we build that, we see the same way it worked even in search and everything else. That's ultimately where you need to be. Now, I think over time, what we're very excited about, Brian, is there's going to be both paid and unpaid ways to take advantage of this. We think that as we see in our dialogues with many of these companies that we talk to all the time, there may be ways where there's a paid model for them to drive traffic, but again, always with a quality score and thinking that way. And there's ways that there will be unpaid as they show. But again, the key thing is that they're going to want to drive people to the best possible outcome for consumers that's going to deliver value, and that's what we're building. So we're excited about the opportunities. That's how we see it.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Lloyd Walmsley with Mizuho.

Lloyd Walmsley

Analyst · Mizuho.

You guys talked earlier about the headwind to growth from all-in pricing. And just wondering if you guys feel like you've carved some of that back already. Is it still running at sort of the low double-digit headwind rate? And do you feel like we're just -- we're sort of -- we just have to comp through it next year? And then secondly, if you could just comment on how meaningful you think World Cup could be next year? And any early indications you're seeing on that would be great.

Eric Baker

Analyst · Mizuho.

Sure. Thank you for the questions, Lloyd. Let me on all-in pricing and then World Cup. And so let me straight on, I think, as we talked about before when we've discussed this and we talked about it, the all-in pricing is a 10% headwind, we believe, for 1 year. We'll lap it in May of '26, I think, as Connie said. So that is -- we don't see any deviance from that. That's what we see. That sort of is what it is. I do want to put that in context for people to understand one thing. We talk about running our business for the long term and that we're really trying to do right by the consumers and the content. And look, I want to put this in context, we also have explained to people, we lobbied for all-in pricing for multiple years. It's something that I think you can go to the SEC website, it's public record. It's not something -- and we were the only people, I think, in our sort of sector to do that. And the reason I bring that up is we did that knowing that there would be this hit. And we knew that in the short term, it's obviously arithmetic, Lloyd, it's 10%. But in the long term, it creates a much better experience for consumers, and it's going to behoove people like us who provide the best experience. Anyway, that's all on pricing. The World Cup, again, listen, we don't -- again, we're not quantifying going forward, but what -- here's what I can tell you. The World Cup has always been a tremendous event for even going back to the days of viagogo because our heritage is international. It's phenomenal in terms of resale, and it is a global event that's going to be North America with a ton of matches, which is arguably the biggest sports spectacle on planet Earth. So we are extremely excited about it and very much looking forward to it, and we'll see.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of John Blackledge with TD Cowen.

John Blackledge

Analyst · TD Cowen.

One question on take rates. Could you talk about take rates between the secondary market and the emerging direct issuance business? And do you expect them to be similar as the direct issuance bid scales? And secondly, just curious if you can unpack the 3Q '25 GMS growth between North America and international?

Eric Baker

Analyst · TD Cowen.

Thanks, John. I appreciate the question. So let me -- I believe you had a question about how do take rates, how do you think about then direct issuance and open distribution and some stuff around our international business. Let me frame some stuff and then maybe Connie will give whatever color we can as well. So I think the first thing is when we talk about the open distribution-direct issuance model, the very straightforward answer to you is the take rates are the same. As we sit here today and everything we've seen, the take rates are the same. That's just fact. I think to help understand, so I want people to understand what we're doing here and why that is, is sometimes people again say, well, doesn't a primary ticketing company have a different take rate? And again, I just want to be very clear, we're not running a primary ticketing access control system. What we're doing is providing a marketplace, providing distribution for people just like we do for fans, just like we do for power sellers, no different. That is why we are able to tell people that when they sell through us, we're charging through the marketplace in the same way. We're not charging them. So that's the answer to that question. I think in terms of U.S. international, I'll just give you in terms of high-level flavor, and we don't break it out. So that's just not to disappoint you there. International has been a rapidly growing business for us, we're very excited about. I think sometimes we don't do a good enough job of articulating to people viagogo, which obviously went on to acquire StubHub, was built internationally. We're in 200 countries. I will tell you, Asia and Latin America are particularly strong. And I will also tell you that if you listen to different event and concert schedules for 2026 and what everyone says in the industry, which we see is tours are going increasingly global, and they're increasingly in these different geographies. So we're very excited about that.

Constance James

Analyst · TD Cowen.

Yes. Nothing further to add, just to emphasize that international continues to be an area where we see consistent growth. We're also excited to have Raj on board, who's going to put some direct focus on international as well, which is super exciting. So great momentum across the board.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Shweta Khajuria with Wolfe Research.

Shweta Khajuria

Analyst · Wolfe Research.

The first one is on direct issuance. Could you please talk to how you're thinking about the number of teams that you expect to perhaps bring on onto the platform next year? And what level of visibility do you have in terms of the timeline? Anything you can comment on when do you need to sign them all by to benefit by the end of next year? So that's the first one. And the second one, any color on just the overall demand trends that you're seeing through the quarter through October and November that could help us out as to how we think about fourth quarter going forward?

Eric Baker

Analyst · Wolfe Research.

Yes. No, Shweta, thank you for the question. I know I think in terms of -- let me talk generally, I think about. I can talk to you generally about DI and open distribution, how we think about that. And also certainly, how do we see sort of live event demand and what's going on? Obviously, as we've said, the way that we think, and we're not providing guidance at this time, and I'm sure we look forward to the next call and talking about next year then. With that context, what I would say is in direct issuance, again, the way we think about it is, again, I think to the question that Eric may have answered -- asked earlier, is that we really have this wide ocean, and it's in so many different compartments when we talk to Shaun and Raj that you've got different leagues, different festivals, different geographies. So it's very, very broad. And what we're finding is the applicability is pretty universal and that really what we need to do is have the product and service work for people the right way. What I would also tell you is that when you get the product and service done the right way, and remember, I want to make this very clear, we are not doing this where it's not exclusive to us. It's multi-listed on multiple platforms, and it fits into their workflow. It doesn't -- that means you don't have to sign up at some predetermined date. You don't have to make a long-term decision. It becomes an option that is in your workflow at any point in time to flip the switch and sell through the retail channel. That then becomes a beautiful thing because you're not bidding on RFPs years in advance and saying, I own this for X years. So that's -- thank you for asking the question. It's an important distinction. I think, in terms of just consumer demand and live events, again, and we don't -- not giving guidance and stuff, but I will take it this way, the demand for live events is phenomenal. We don't see anything with consumer demand that's any different. I think as Connie alluded to, as she spoke, we run a marketplace business and the timing of when things go on sale on the event catalog sometimes varies. And I've been doing this for 20, 25 years, my gosh. And it can move. Sometimes things go in the fourth quarter instead of first quarter, sometimes things go in the third quarter instead of the fourth quarter. That is a timing catalog question that has nothing to do with the robust demand that we see from consumers who love going to live events and continue to do so.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from the line of Jason Helfstein with Oppenheimer.

Jason Helfstein

Analyst · Oppenheimer.

I guess, I want to just maybe re-ask the Shweta's question just because we're getting asked this by a number of clients. So maybe, Connie, can you help us understand, I guess, how much pull forward did you see in 3Q that may kind of be affecting fourth quarter? And I guess, how meaningful is kind of the unfavorable World Series relative to last year? And then a second question that's been coming up, Ticketmaster, Live Nation, whatever, has been under increased pressure, I think, to try to rein in speculative sellers. Can you just talk about like how you manage the business around speculative selling? And just your broad thoughts about it. Is it something that like -- kind of it's something we should all be paying attention to or just in the scope of a very big business, it's just not meaningful?

Constance James

Analyst · Oppenheimer.

Yes. Great. Thanks for the question. And happy to provide some color. As we mentioned, we knew going in to the fourth quarter that it would be a little bit of a tough comparison. We had the unique Taylor Swift comp as well as the World Series. And as I mentioned, we did see a little bit of timing shift in relation to September. To Eric's point, what we continue to focus on is the long term. We know that there can be timing shifts from time to time. What we continue to be focused on is capturing share. And in the third quarter, we were able to do just that. In fact, if you look at our market share, we were nearing 50%. So as we look at it, we think it's merely a timing issue more than anything else. And more broadly, I'd say the outlook for '26 continues to look really strong. And so if there's a little bit of timing, the good news is that we're well positioned to capture a significant portion of those on sales when they do come in. So hopefully, that gives you a little bit of color. In relation to speculative ticketing, et cetera, I'll pass it over to Eric to provide some color.

Eric Baker

Analyst · Oppenheimer.

Yes. No, thanks for the question, Jason. I think sometimes when people talk about, I think, within speculative ticketing, there's a lot of people in the market that -- how do we make sure that we're guaranteeing people get tickets and that it happens in an authentic way. That's our business. That's what we do. So minimizing fraud and make sure these tickets get delivered. So for us, there's not -- it's business as usual and nothing to talk about there.

Operator

Operator

And our final question comes from the line of Andrew Boone with Citizens.

Brianna Diaz

Analyst

This is Brianna on for Andrew Boone. Just can you share how users are currently interacting with the mobile app and how that may be different than on the web? And do you see an opportunity for the mobile app to evolve into a more comprehensive platform, whether that's through loyalty program or a different lever to drive better frequency and retention?

Eric Baker

Analyst

Thank you for the question. Appreciate it. I think the question about mobile app, on the first thing, just we don't break out for the purposes of what we report. I think though, as you allude, and I think what we are seeing and what you're sort of alluding to is that as we are getting more and more people coming back to us all the time, as we think about what we provide to make that experience easy to know who you are to -- even with these things where we're adding in things through Booking and other things to build a more complete product, that's really what we're striving to do. So as we continue to do that, we're certainly adding the building blocks for a complete product and making it easier and easier for people to know that they just have the first port of call to go to, which is StubHub, and that's what we're excited about. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our question-and-answer session. I will now turn the call back over to Mr. Eric Baker for closing remarks.

Eric Baker

Analyst

Thank you, everyone, for joining us for our first earnings call as a public company. We very much appreciate it. As I said at the outset, both to those who have been along with us for our many-year journey and for those who are new to the story, thank you for taking the time. We look forward to speaking to you again in the future.

Operator

Operator

And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call, and we thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.