Barry S. Sternlicht
Management
Let's talk about what -- just the servicing portion which has that $188 million book value today. '15 is going to be our next year in servicing and '16 and '17 will be considerably the biggest years probably LNR's likely to have ever had, but a lot will depend on where our interest rates are. And offsetting that will be the CMBS securities. So just to go over this, because it's a little -- a lot less obvious than you think. If rates come down, right, or spreads stay in and things don't default, some of the things we wrote off in the CMBS book, even the way the world's going, may have huge value. You could see massive gains in the CMBS book. If rates go up and there's more defaults, the CMBS is going to be worth less, right, because we're not going to get any excess cash flow payments in the CMBS tranches. And instead, we're going to get servicing fees and extension fees and refinancing fees and all the fees that a servicer normally gets. So we have an interesting natural hedge in place. And it's -- and for us, I mean, I don't know which one we'd rather have. I like chaos, I like higher rates. I would help our Core Earnings of the lending book, as Rina pointed out, 300 basis points would be a bonanza for us, we'd make a ton of money. By the way, rates going down doesn't impact us, because most of our loans have a LIBOR floor or, I already said LIBOR plus 25 basis points. So how much lower can they go? So it's aced, it's a free option, right? The shareholders are getting a free option on higher rates. And the natural hedge business, chaos would also allow the loan company, the loan business, to help refinance all these loans, right? So we -- that's great for us. It falls into servicing and we approach every borrower and say, "Hey, we are a one-stop solution. We know the asset because we've been servicing it, and we even commit to making you a loan in 10 seconds because we have all the data." I guess if I had to choose, I'd probably take higher rates. I guess -- my guess is we're in through what we got for a while, on low rates for longer. And Jeff DiModica was the first call that and then later, the desk of RBS. But lower longer, and it's probably the world. Because our view of the world is Europe and Brazil and China are not strong enough to pull the global economy higher right now, and the U.S. is a bright spot. But we have issues. So maybe the Republican victory last night might help. I couldn't help myself, I had to say that. But I was told to stay away from politics. But I'm smiling for a second, okay? Now we're moving on. Sorry.