Earnings Labs

Starwood Property Trust, Inc. (STWD)

Q1 2022 Earnings Call· Wed, May 4, 2022

$18.12

-1.44%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Greetings. Welcome to the Starwood Property Trust First Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. Please note, this conference is being recorded. I will now turn the conference over to your host, Zach Tanenbaum, Head of Investor Strategy. You may begin.

Zachary Tanenbaum

Management

Thank you, operator. Good morning, and welcome to Starwood Property Trust earnings call. This morning, the company released its financial results for the quarter ended March 31, 2022, filed its Form 10-Q with the Securities and Exchange Commission and posted its earnings supplement to its website. These documents are available on the Investor Relations section of the company's website at www.starwoodpropertytrust.com. Before the call begins, I would like to remind everyone that certain statements made in the course of this call are not based on historical information and may constitute forward-looking statements. These statements are based on management's current expectations and beliefs and are subject to a number of trends and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements. I refer you to the company's filings made with the SEC for a more detailed discussion of the risks and factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements made today. The company undertakes no duty to update any forward-looking statements that may be made during the course of this call. Additionally, certain non-GAAP financial measures will be discussed on this conference call. Our presentation of this information is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the financial information presented in accordance with GAAP. Reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable measures prepared in accordance with GAAP can be accessed through our filings with the SEC at www.sec.gov. Joining me on the call today are Barry Sternlicht, the company's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; Jeff DiModica, the company's President; Rina Paniry, the company's Chief Financial Officer; and Andrew Sossen, the company's Chief Operating Officer. With that, I'm now going to turn the call over to Rina.

Rina Paniry

Management

Thank you, Zach, and good morning, everyone. This quarter, reported distributable earnings or DE of $240 million or $0.76 per share. This includes an $85 million or $0.27 per share gain related to the sale of an industrial asset in Orlando that was previously acquired through foreclosure, which we will discuss later. GAAP earnings for the quarter were $325 million or $1.02 per share and include the Orlando gain as well as a $0.55 per share increase in the fair value of our Woodstar fund. Our GAAP book value grew by $0.54 in the quarter to $20.46 with un-depreciated book value increasing to $21.26. We were active on both the left and right-hand sides of our balance sheet with $4.4 billion of new investments across businesses, funded by diverse capital sources, including $500 million of corporate sustainability notes, two CLOs totaling $1.5 billion and an increase in funding capacity of $1.7 billion. Beginning my segment discussion this morning is commercial and residential lending, which contributed DE of $231 million to the quarter or $0.73 per share. In Commercial Lending, we originated $1.9 billion across 22 new loans, 100% of which were floating rate first mortgages. We funded $1.1 billion of these loans as well as $241 million of pre-existing loan commitments with most fundings back ended to the last half of the quarter. As we continue to transform our collateral mix, 49% of the quarter's originations were multifamily and 22% were residential, while 83% of the $716 million in loan repayments were hotel and office. Our loan portfolio ended the quarter at a record $14.8 billion, up 33% year-over-year. Of this amount, 92% represents senior secured first mortgage loans and 98% is floating rate. Given the steepness of the forward curve, we expect earnings to increase once we move past…

Jeff DiModica

Management

Thanks, Rina. Sorry, in advance for my lousy voice here, I'm on the backside of a very light COVID experience, but I will try to get through the script and get through the Q&A as well as I can. We had another strong quarter of investing activity and value creation, demonstrating the strength of our multi-cylinder platform through cycles and differentiating us from our peers. I'd like to start by saying how proud I am of our best-in-class team for continuing to deliver strong results to our shareholders in ensuring a seamless transition through COVID. With the sale in the quarter of our one million square foot leased distribution center in Orlando, we now have repositioned, retenanted and sold, both distribution centers, we took possession of via loan default three years ago, creating distributable earnings gains of over $93 million for shareholders. In 13 years and over $80 billion of lending, that $93 million gain is a multiple of the cumulative impairments we have taken in that time. As I've said before, we take pride in the fact that we underwrite debt as if we were investing in the equity and this focus on asset selection and detailed real estate underwriting works to our advantage. It results in lower losses overall. And if we do get an asset back, we are comfortable with real estate, because we underwrote it. In the depths of COVID, we told you we believe our loan book would perform well, but not even the most optimistic management team would have predicted that we would have cumulative gain on defaulted loans in our 13-year history that we would have earned and paid our significant dividend every quarter or that we would have over $4 per share in distributable earnings gains available to us in our owned…

Barry Sternlicht

Management

Thank you, Zach, Rina and Jeff, and good morning, everyone. so small changes in values could actually hurt you, and you could find yourselves as an equity player by accident. I think this testimony the underwriting that we have. Over 12 years actually made money -- significant money actually. And we'd expect that to continue as we work through a few assets in the portfolio that are nonperforming. I'll give you one, Calistoga Ranch, with a lender. We're the first mortgage lender on an asset out in California right now, not far from there, actually. And the asset burn down the ground accruing assets, not paying. But the land is the sale or substantially more than we have the asset as a loan balance. So we'll go back . So I really can't be more pleased with the efforts of the team across all our cylinders. I will manage phone. Jeff, do you -- maybe take Q&A, and then I'll dial in off the land line if I can find one. Hold on. Jeff, can you pick up.

Jeff DiModica

Management

But nobody can hear me. Operator?

Operator

Operator

Sure. Yes, Jeff. You're live now. You may proceed.

Jeff DiModica

Management

We're going to move to Q&A. When Barry gets a better connection, we'll go back to Barry, but we'll start Q&A.

Operator

Operator

Okay. So, we will be conducting a question-and-answer session. And our first question comes from the line of Doug Harter with Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your questions.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your questions

Hi. This is John for Doug. I guess first question would be after another quarter of strong earnings, what's the outlook now for the dividend or the potential for a special dividend?

Jeff DiModica

Management

Yeah, John…

Rina Paniry

Management

Jeff, do you want me to take that?

Jeff DiModica

Management

Go ahead, sorry.

Rina Paniry

Management

So, the special dividend related -- as it relates to the Orlando gain, which was really the outsized performance for the quarter, we look to a full year because the dividend is based on full year taxable income and we look to pay that out over four quarters. And so, we wouldn't be making a determination today as to a special dividend related to that gain. We will see how the year plays out and ultimately make that determination as we approach the end of the year to see whether or not we've covered. So, it's not a decision that we would make today.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your questions

Got it. Thank you. And second question would be just around rate sensitivity. I understand the floating rate book obviously, it's more attractive as rates move up. But at what point does that become unattractive? And can you kind of size the attractiveness as we move maybe 25 bps and 50 bps? Do we have those -- sort of those numbers that gives that color?

Jeff DiModica

Management

Yeah, John, it's Jeff. Listen, as rates go higher, it really depends on shape of the curve. We have a large book with a large ecosystem, short-term, long-term, fixed rate, floating rate, assets and liabilities. So, it changes with the shape of the curve. But if we generically are talking about LIBOR, we benefited greatly from having probably the highest LIBOR floors in our peer set before COVID. We fought really hard. We were proud of our LIBOR floors that we had. We had LIBOR floors that were significantly above 2% through a good part of COVID. Our average LIBOR floor today is only about 54 basis points, down from 76 or 77 last quarter, but it's still higher than most of our peers, because we fought really hard to get LIBOR floors, which helped us as rates went down in the beginning of COVID. The problem with having high LIBOR floors is still having proof as LIBOR sat below the LIBOR floors. We didn't make more money as rates went up or why the premium place went up. We're now at the point where LIBOR is above where our LIBOR floors are, where we will start to participate in the upside of LIBOR going higher. The higher --

Barry Sternlicht

Management

Jeff, this is Barry, can you hear me?

Jeff DiModica

Management

Yes, Barry, you're back. Great.

Barry Sternlicht

Management

Okay. I'll just tell you, what happened today. The Fed has raised the rates the -- it looks like we will be in the money on the LIBOR floors.

Jeff DiModica

Management

Yes. We actually already are, Barry. And so, because we're at 75 and our average is 64, and where I was leading them is, to say, as rates continue to go higher from here, we will make more. And once we get above where all of our LIBOR floors. And our highest LIBOR floors are 2.52%. Once we get above them all, we will have maximum velocity. So to answer your question, we'll do better at 200 basis points, than 100 basis points, and we'll do better at 300 basis points higher than 200 basis points, but we will continue to make more money as LIBOR goes higher from here, Doug.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Credit Suisse. Please proceed with your questions

Great. Thank you very much.

Barry Sternlicht

Management

All right. Jeff, can I assume that people couldn't hear anything I said.

Jeff DiModica

Management

I would assume they could hear almost nothing, Barry. There was a little bit in the middle, but if you want to make your key thoughts again, I would go for it.

Barry Sternlicht

Management

Okay. Well, thanks. I'm sorry for the technical difficulties, everyone. It looked like I had service, but certainly I did not. So I was -- I wanted to start with geopolitics and just say, our book is in Europe and the United States. And that if you told me that we’d have a loan to book of 61% in the quarter, 57% loan-to-value of our loans. I would never have believed that. And yet, the opportunity set for the company is as big as it's ever been in our business as banks are kind of shy in pulling back and borrowers would like relationship managers like us, and we do so much repeat business in our book that the team has done an exceptional job. And across the whole platform, the team has executed beautifully. I will say that, you should understand that, given our focus on the equity, on the value of properties, I guess, it's surprising, but it probably shouldn't be surprising that we've realized net gains -- significant net gains on anything we've ever foreclosed on. And at 57% LTV, unless there's a massive correction in real estate, that should continue, as we work our way through the book. And I -- or any of our loans that are -- you see them in our disclosure, higher-rated -- higher risk. We have a loan, for example, on the former Calistoga Ranch, one of the best hotels in the United States. It burnt to the ground. And it is obviously in Calistoga. It burned in the fires. Obviously, we can't accrue it. But the land is for sale right now. It will sell for more than the loan balance, just the loan balance and will be repaid. So we expect this to continue with any troubled assets, and…

Jeff DiModica

Management

And Barry, just putting a separate point, the numbers that you talked about, as Zachary talked about, San Francisco is actually only 40 basis points of our total assets, but there are loans in San Francisco today. And in Manhattan, as you talked about Blue States, Blue cities its difficult jurisdiction tax-wise and other, there's only 1.2% of our assets are on loans in Manhattan. And we almost doubled it, when we did the large residential project in last quarter, Barry. So you're talking about $300 million, which was only $150 million. So that's a long time, long-term bad debt that you and the company have made on being defensive on Manhattan and San Francisco that does work pretty well.

Barry Sternlicht

Management

Just one quick comment on the Manhattan loan, it was a foreclosure that we financed. And it's mostly residential. And the equity is going to make a lot of money, which we tried to get into the equity, but weren't able to show. Next best thing is make the loans or part of the loan. So that's a very big positive as opposed to a concern its brand new loans, so thanks, Jeff.

Operator

Operator

And now we are continuing with the question-and-answer session. Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Laws with Raymond James. Please proceed with your question.

Stephen Laws

Analyst · Stephen Laws with Raymond James. Please proceed with your question

Hi. Good morning. Rina, you touched on this is Barry, but I wanted to get a little bit better idea of the visibility you have into the rent increases in the Woodstar assets. From when the CPI or AMI data comes out, how long is it before that rolls into the rent increases? And then the income statement is it three or six months or 12 months. Kind of how much visibility do you have there?

Rina Paniry

Management

So for 2022, we actually have 100% visibility, because HUD relief the 9.1% that I mentioned. They released that two weeks ago. So we know for a fact that for 2022, we're able to roll out 9.1% of blended increases across the portfolio. We can do that immediately. It's not what we're choosing to do. We are choosing to roll it out fully overtime over the next six months, but that can take effect right away. And so, we have 100% visibility into 2022. As far as 2023 goes, we have an estimate, but we really don't know because it's based on three-year median -- three years back, median income levels. Then two years of actual CPI and one year of projected CPI. So there's, just a couple of unknowns, but directionally, you can estimate where we would end up.

Stephen Laws

Analyst · Stephen Laws with Raymond James. Please proceed with your question

Got it.

Barry Sternlicht

Management

Thanks Stephen. Maybe I give you a sense that the -- looking back at the change in median income from three years ago and then increasing it by CPI, as Rina said, and the CPI is the variable, we thought this would be around 12%. It's around 9% to 9.1%. What all that means is the delaying of 3% increase that will come in the following year or the year after when actual actually comes in at a different place. So I think the forward inflation numbers look a little low to me, but I'm not making a judgment based on that. But I know that based on the way the calculation works, if we think they're 3% too low this year it's going to be 3% higher the following year or the year after to make up for it. So it will be somewhat mean reverting to the numbers that we think, and we're going to get a couple of years of really good outcomes.

Barry Sternlicht

Management

Just to add one thing. Again, this is -- we're in Orlando and Tampa, and you can't get better markets for income growth than those two markets in the country. There's in-migration, job growth, new companies moving in, and so there is going to remain pressure on wages, which makes this more affordable for our renters, too, because their wages are going up rapidly also.

Stephen Laws

Analyst · Stephen Laws with Raymond James. Please proceed with your question

Yes. As a follow-up, Jeff. When you think about capital allocation, one of the biggest advantages of all your cylinders is reallocating capital when it's attractive. Given all the movements in the markets and obviously, you've now got another CLO in the infrastructure business, but how do you think about the most attractive uses of putting money to work right now?

Jeff DiModica

Management

Well, the lending business has been a real cap for the last 18 months. We've averaged about 200 basis points, between 170 and 200 basis points above our long-term trend ROE in the lending business. Our international lending business has really picked up the slack and will probably be over 30% of what we do this year, and it will be significant, and it won't be -- it will be multi-jurisdictional, Australia and core Europe and the loans competition better advance rates to us, better structure for us, et cetera. So, we're super happy with that. Our domestic loan book continues to grow with a massive focus on multifamily. I talked about it in the past and I mentioned it briefly before, but the reality is with rates going up as quickly as they have, the agencies, Fannie and Freddie and the CMBS market simply can't be as competitive on proceeds to a multifamily borrower as the nonbank market can. They are sizing the loans based on the trailing 12-month cash flow. And we all know that the next 12 months will be higher than the trailing 12 months. So any borrower can get higher proceeds away from the Fannie, Freddie in the CMBS market. This will last forever. But at the same time that this phenomenon has happened for us. We have a lot of smaller competitors who because of the CRE, CLO market has been quiet, and it's been difficult to get out to an arbitrage, have not done CRE, CLOs, their bank warehouses are full, and they're not being competitive because they don't have room to grow. So as you talk about our ability to pivot, we have pivoted. We pivoted strongly multi-families now by far the largest segment that we have, and we're taking advantage of a lack of competitors to really add to that. So I think you'll see that happen continuing for the next six to nine months. I don't see the CRE CLO bandwidth problem fixing itself in the short run. So, I would expect we continue there. We continue internationally. We probably don't add a lot in property. As you know the residential business, well, the non-QM loans that we're seeing today with 5.5% to 6% coupons at 1-0-1 type of premiums will be awfully good-looking investments at some point down the line. So we're sort of excited about that our energy infrastructure business. It's lending at the mid-teens. We expect them to do $1 billion plus, and they're off to a great start this year, and that portfolio is performing super well. I'd say those would be the key adds You probably won't see us add a lot in property. And Barry can speak to this, but it's just difficult to get the cash returns that we need in the property world with where interest rates are on financing today. So, property probably will be something that you don't see increasing. Barry, any comments?

Barry Sternlicht

Management

I think that's correct, Jeff. Nothing to add.

Stephen Laws

Analyst · Stephen Laws with Raymond James. Please proceed with your question

Great. Appreciate the comments this morning. I hope you feel better soon Jeff.

Jeff DiModica

Management

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from the line of Don Fandetti with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question.

Don Fandetti

Analyst · Don Fandetti with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question

Hey good morning Jeff. If you could two questions. One, how do you sort of balance pretty strong growth here into what could be an economic recession? And then number two, can you talk a little bit more about how you took advantage of the non-QM market disruption in the quarter and your outlook for that business?

Jeff DiModic

Analyst · Don Fandetti with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question

Yes. Sure. As far as growth into recession, we wake up every day and decide what we want to invest, where -- what areas we want to invest in. And if we think that we're headed for a difficult time, we can simply pull back the reins and we will ultimately stay invested by virtue of future funding that we have, et cetera. So it's a real advantage having this very large ecosystem with money coming in and going out. Most days, we don't have to wake up and do something that we don't want to do. I'll leave it to Barry to talk about chances of a recession or how we would necessarily change our outlook. But my guess is, if we head into an environment like that, there will be less to do. There'll be less purchases, and there will certainly be less refinancings. So in a world where there were $600 billion or so of loans to choose from last year done in the floating rate world or 500 and change, it may be smaller than that. We're expecting that we'll do about 80% of the volume of last year, would be okay, and we'll be able to stay invested if we did 30% of the volume of last year. And that's one of the beauties of our system. Barry, do you want to talk a little bit about the prospects for recession and how it might change your outlook?

Barry Sternlicht

Management

Yes. I'm expecting a recession, but that goes to the LTV of the book at 61%. I think, we've got more than adequate cushion. It would have to be a complete wholesale destruction of the economy to really dramatically injure us with demand destruction. That would empty office buildings or cause unemployment to skyrocket and wage growth to cease and reverse. It's not -- and obviously, the energy book and the energy complex is absurdly healthy. And even on -- we have a small oil and gas business at the parent level, and investments we wrote off are now gushing cash flow. So it will just change the opportunity set for us. Probably there will be better investments to be made frankly. People do have loan maturities, and that was the year we were created. We were created to provide liquidity and capital when banks warrant lending, and we thought there were terrific risk return opportunities for us, risk reward opportunities for us, solving people's capital stack problems. So in a way, those are our best days, our competition. We're the biggest of our kind and have the liquidity in our property book. We can create liquidity, and we don't want to do it by selling hedges or taking off foreign currency hedges. We can just simply sell some of our equity assets or even trade our loans. So I'm not nervous about the portfolio really in a slowdown. And again, I guess, the only negative is LIBOR probably or SOFR goes down, not up, but we still have our floors. And I don't think you'll see rates. Well, you could. I mean if it gets really bad, you could see short end of curve drop as it did during the pandemic. But that wouldn't be a base forecast. I…

Don Fandetti

Analyst · Don Fandetti with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question

And Jeff, non-QM market, do you still feel like...

Jeff DiModica

Management

Go ahead, Don.

Don Fandetti

Analyst · Don Fandetti with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question

Do you still feel like it has good sort of secular growth? And were you guys able to -- you touched upon it a little bit. Were you able to take advantage of the spread widening and dislocation in the quarter?

Jeff DiModica

Management

Yes. I'll touch on that. There's spread widening in a bunch of places. We were an aggressive investor. We wrote, I think, $1.8 billion of new loans in the resi business. There was obviously spread widening. There are definitely weaker hands in that base. We are a long-term player. We have a large balance sheet. We continue to invest. The credit on non-QM loans and on any resi loan looks really good. The LTVs, which were mid-60s to a 735 or whatever are significantly below mid-60s today, given the HPA that we've experienced. So there's no credit concerns, but concern is only what's the coupon and at what speed that speed at. And with premiums down to -- on a post-hedge basis, we hedge 100% of our interest rates or 85% to 100% of our interest rates from the time, we lock alone. So as rates have risen, we've had hedge gains, which means net we're owning new non-QM loans below par. And then it becomes – when they're below par, we don't have to think about prepay speeds as much as we worry about prepaid fees on premiums. So, we won't worry about credit. We won't worry about prepaid fees. It will just be a matter of what coupon is left over on what we can originate and securitize. We've continued to securitize pricing our third deal this month or actually priced this week. We have two more coming this quarter. And the extent that we can get some of these newer loans with 5% and 6% handles and potentially mid to high fixed coupons on these resi loans, I think those will be phenomenal investments. So, we're continuing to invest there. It was a rocky quarter spread-wise. But again, the rate hedges that we had on covered both to that significant move and gave us an opportunity now to be a larger investor.

Don Fandetti

Analyst · Don Fandetti with Wells Fargo. Please proceed with your question

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our last question comes from the line of Jade Rahmani with KBW. Please proceed with your question.

Jade Rahmani

Analyst · KBW. Please proceed with your question

Thank you very much. Do you expect that there will ultimately be a correction in commercial real estate prices? How do you balance the fact of rising replacement costs against the potential for cap rates to widen? Do you think that bodes for flattish outlook for commercial real estate prices, say, next year, or you expect the correction?

Jeff DiModica

Management

I'll take that. Yes. So, I think the lowest cap rate asset classes will face some pressure, but there happen to be low cap rates because the rent growth has been astounding double-digit like. And they do mark-to-market on short leases, I'm really referring to apartments, number one, single-family for rent probably similar to apartments. Industrial, I've mentioned in my comments, Industrial is trading at 3 caps to 3.25. We don't have much exposure to industrial. We can't get our returns lending to that asset class. So we've walked away. I think you could see a 25, 50 basis point increase in cap rates in the residential sector and the apartments, but it really is about rent growth. It is very important and it can be far more important than interest rates. And I don't think we have data really because if you go back to the late '70s, early '80s, when you had at 22% prime rate, cap rates weren't 2022. They weren't even double digit because everyone looked at the interest rate curves as transient, and they were going to come down, which they obviously did. And I remember in my earlier in my career buying some assets in the UK at 5 and 6 cap rates when interest rates were 13% so I think real estate investors kind of look through the transitory nature of the curve as the central reserve banks try to accelerate or decelerate growth. So they won't go hand in hand. You will eliminate a class of buyers that have been in, let's say, multifamily that were buying it before it and financing it 2.5% and 3%, so there was a good cash-on-cash yield. You don't really have that with today cap rates. But as I mentioned in my comments, we're selling probably…

Jade Rahmani

Analyst · KBW. Please proceed with your question

And Barry, cap rate is higher. We have a lot of room at 61% LTV to absorb that. I think it's one of the things we like to talk about. And Barry, can you just make one comment on what you think would happen to cap rates in affordable housing versus multi and other? We look at them as a much more bond like cash flow and less volatility because of that bond like nature. So even if your supposition is significantly higher cap rates, Barry, I'd love to hear your opinion on how you think low income housing plays?

Barry Sternlicht

Management

As you know, Jade, our cap rate on the multi books, we're holding in the force. So we're nowhere near. We're not marking this down at today's cap rate. We're just marking up the value based on rent growth. So we have a huge cushion in our mark. And because it can only go up, rents can only go up and not down, the asset category has become a very, very exciting unlevered yields for offshore investors that look at it as an inflation protection bond and basically index bond to inflation and wage growth. And so it's almost like a tip. It's -- and the minority investors that we have in the WoodStar portfolio when we realized and demonstrated to the street and to our shareholders of these gains, we talk about are absolutely real and is available to us to harvest at any time. They were both offshore sovereign wealth funds that -- I guess one is a quasi sovereign wealth fund. But they're looking this is basically bond equivalent yields that actually have a kicker in it. It's a tip. It goes up. It doesn't go down. So that's going to keep those cap rates higher and then probably market rate cap rates going forward.

Jade Rahmani

Analyst · KBW. Please proceed with your question

Regarding transaction outlook, what do you expect for the market? Do you expect, I assume, a decline this year? Last year was a record. We had a surge driven by not just the number of properties that traded but much higher values. I would expect you think that would decline, particularly in the second half of this year with higher rates? And for Starwood itself on commercial real estate lending, what do you think you guys do for originations this year?

Jeff DiModica

Management

Well, I'll start with us because we don't even give you this quarter, but I would say we did $10 billion in transitional lending last year. That was our goal coming into the year for the reasons you said. I would expect it to be slightly below that, but not significantly below that. I think that -- I think there's a lot to do for us in times like this where, as you're seeing, bank warehouse lines are full, a lot of our smaller competitors are sort of out of the market. When we can get pricing and when we can do things that are attractive and very complex, and we've been doing a lot of large complex deals, we're going to tend to do a little bit more. So my guess is that our market, including our peer group, is down 20%, 25%, but we're closer to flat than not. But Barry, I'll let you talk about commercial real estate and what you think happens?

Barry Sternlicht

Management

Right now, there's a lot of assets on the market. So there are a lot of people selling assets, particularly multi-family, of course, people trying to lock in today's cap rates, which again, are in the 3s -- low 3s, like 3, 3.25 and, in some cases, breaking 3. So I think there's been a surge of assets for sale. You haven't seen a ton of other asset classes trade dramatically. People have tested the waters on hotels. The asks are super high. The bids are not at the ask. You haven't seen a ton of trades. We are quite active on the equity side. There is -- there are -- we are -- as are some of our peers. And there's a lot of people holding on to property because of the rent growth and lack of alternatives. But I would probably agree that volumes will go down. We don't need transactions. We just need refinancing opportunities. So I have no idea what the cadence of maturities look like of the U.S. commercial mortgage market. But assuming it's -- it will always be opportunities for us, I think.

Jade Rahmani

Analyst · KBW. Please proceed with your question

Thank you.

Jeff DiModica

Management

And Jade, even this morning, people holding back their expectations for the CMBS market and the SASB market for the year. I think you have written about that being smaller. If that is the case, we will obviously pick up some slack as the SASB market does less deals and if people move away from 10-year fixed to transitional. So I would have you going to be able to…

Barry Sternlicht

Management

Two other comments. I mean, the difficulties of other asset classes in times of like this always help real estate. We always get a bid. Institutions find the fact that we don't mark-to-market overnight kind of refreshing as they look at the collateral damage in the VC book or even in their equity book right now. And so that's always benefited, to some extent, real estate. Also, where the capital is in the world, right now is primarily in oil wealth nations, including the Middle East, and they have a predilection to buy real assets. They like real assets. And -- so I expect that participate more in the markets than less, and I would guarantee that, frankly. And these two -- there's one other new kid on the block, which has been extremely material in the last 12 to 24 months, which are the non-traded REITs,, which were the second largest in the nation behind Blackstone. And these entities have to put out capital, right? They have to find things to buy because they can't sit on cash, they don't earn anything on cash. And they have been very important drivers of what is acceptable pricing. And so they are very active buyers. And in the scale -- the Blackstone non-traded REIT has to almost buy the entire volume of commercial mortgage transactions prior to COVID every year. So they have a 100% market share of what was -- basically I forgot the number, but it was -- they have all of it. So that alone is driving transaction volume by itself. And obviously, we're bigger than the next eight guys behind us combined. But you find things to do. You create deals because you look for opportunities. And what you're seeing, obviously, it's not -- it shouldn't surprise anybody. I think I've talked about it maybe not to this audience, but you'll continue to see take privates in the public market, whether it's PS Business Parks or ACC or -- those are all being driven by the non-traded REIT volumes and the need to put up that money and scale. So we'll continue to see take privates for a while of the public companies, which will drive loan volume origination. And we're working -- we finance Blackstone. Blackstone finances us on the equity side, and we've partnered historically before on some large loans and have a large loan that we expect will close with them shortly, actually.

Jade Rahmani

Analyst · KBW. Please proceed with your question

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

And we have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. I'll now turn the call back over to Barry Sternlicht for closing remarks.

Barry Sternlicht

Management

Thanks, everyone. I just can't tell you -- I mean we are obviously, on the large shareholders, Starwood Property Trust, and so is the team. And it's a really nice place to be hanging out well as the world melts. So we hope other shareholders and other capital sources will increase their positions in our company because we really look good in this times of travel, and we expect -- I'm not sure any mortgage REIT in our sector can cover the dividend the way we can. And that's not reflected in any premium. But actually, we've traded out at a discount to some of our peers based on our new book value. So thanks for your support, and thanks for listening in. Have a great day.

Operator

Operator

And this concludes today's conference, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.