Earnings Labs

Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX)

Q2 2016 Earnings Call· Fri, Jan 29, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning and welcome to the Seagate Technology fiscal second quarter 2016 financial results conference call. My name is Abigail and I will be your coordinator for today. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Following the prepared remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. At this time, I would like to turn the call over to Kate Scolnick, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please proceed, Kate.

Kate Scolnick

President

Thank you. Good morning, everyone and welcome to today's call. Joining me today from Seagate's executive team are Steve Luczo, Chairman and CEO, Dave Morton, Executive Vice President and CFO, Dave Mosley, President, Operations and Technology and Phil Brace, President, Cloud Systems and Silicon Group. We have posted our press release and detailed supplemental information about our second fiscal quarter 2016 on our Investor Relations site at seagate.com. During today's call, we will review the highlights for the quarter, provide the company outlook for the third fiscal quarter 2016 and then open the call for questions. We will refer to non-GAAP measures on this call, which are reconciled to GAAP figures on our supplemental information available on the Investor section of our website. We are planning for the call today to go approximately half an hour and we will do our best to accommodate your questions in that timeframe. As a reminder this conference call contains forward-looking statements about the company's anticipated future operating and financial performance, customer demand and general market conditions. These forward-looking statements are based on management's current views and assumptions and should not be relied upon as of any subsequent date. Actual results may vary materially from today's statements. Information concerning risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause results to differ from these forward-looking statements are contained in the company's SEC filings and supplemental information posted on the Investor section of the company's website at seagate.com. I would now like to turn the call over to Steve Luczo. Please go ahead, Steve.

Steve Luczo

Chairman

Thanks, Kate. Good morning, everyone and thanks for joining us today. Our second fiscal quarter results reflect in line performance in revenues and margins and outperformance on the committed cost control measures. For the December quarter, Seagate achieved revenues of $3 billion and on a non-GAAP basis gross margin of 25.6%, net income of $246 million and diluted earnings per share of $0.82. Our HDD exabyte shipments for the December quarter were 60.6 exabytes, up 10% sequentially. Within this, enterprise exabyte shipments were up 21% sequentially, reflecting strong demand for our high-capacity enterprise products. Average capacity per enterprise drive was a new record of 2.2 terabytes, up 15% year-over-year. Non-GAAP operating expenses in the December quarter were $453 million. On a year-over-year basis, we have reduced a quarterly expense run rate by almost $100 million or 17% reflecting reductions around the core business, adjacencies, restructuring activities and lower variable compensation. Overall inventory levels were down 5% with improved linearity and capital expenditures were in line with our expectations. Cash flow from operations in the December quarter was $382 million and free cash flow was $245 million, equating to free cash flow of $0.81 per diluted share. Fiscal year to-date, we have generated $1.2 billion in cash flow from operations and forecast cash flow from operations to be approximately $500 million for the March quarter. Our capital returned to shareholders remains a top priority at Seagate and we continue to balance the effective investment in our storage technology portfolio with shareholder returns and within an investment grade framework. There has been no change to our capital allocation policy and our dividend payout of $188 million a quarter works comfortably within our cash flow generation forecast. We have redeemed 23 million shares fiscal year to-date and considering the macro economic empowerment and…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Our first question comes from the line of Sherri Scribner with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Sherri Scribner

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Your line is open

Hi. Thanks. I just wanted to dig a little bit into the gross margin improvement. You guys did a good job on managing that this quarter. How much of that was driven by the ramp of your eight terabyte drives and a more positive mix in your business? And how much of that was related to cost reduction actions?

Dave Mosley

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Your line is open

Hi, Sherri. We are taking aggressive cost reduction actions, but the ramp of the nearline products and re-equilibrating versus what we saw in Q1 was pretty substantial. Nearline went up about 11% in exabytes quarter-over-quarter. That's 18% year-over-year and a lot of that is being driven by sixes and eights moving hard and we will continue that into this quarter as well. So it's pretty profound there.

Sherri Scribner

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Your line is open

And then maybe could I ask a quick question on the capacity business and the hyperscale business. How do you see that ramping over with the year? I know that you have talked about strong build plans from the cloud providers, but I wanted to get a sense of what you are seeing now? Thanks.

Dave Mosley

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Your line is open

We still believe that some of the cloud service providers are in hold back mode. There is lot of diversity in the Tier 2 buildout, but there are still people there with their capital budgets that are fairly conservative through this time. So we do see that in the back half of this year, some of them will come back into, not only scale out but also refresh of their existing data centers as well.

Sherri Scribner

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Your line is open

Thank you.

Steve Luczo

Chairman

Sherri, just to further point out what Dave said, so the cost actions really in terms of how they impact COGS are really in the quarters to come more so than the improvement in the last quarter. That was more related, again, to mix and introducing some of these new products that are higher traction on the eight TB, but I think in terms of the margin improvement we see going forward we are pretty encouraged by what we see in terms of the cost actions related to capacity and supply chain optimization that will impact COGS going through rest of the calendar year.

Sherri Scribner

Analyst · Deutsche Bank. Your line is open

Great. Thanks, Steve.

Steve Luczo

Chairman

Yes.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from line of Rich Kugele with Needham & Co. Your line is open.

Rich Kugele

Analyst · Rich Kugele with Needham & Co. Your line is open

Thank you. Good morning and congratulations actually in a tough environment. Maybe first, let's take a bigger picture view. With all the puts and takes competitively, some people are concerned about the overall drive business health. What do you see now competitively with the Seagate/WD transaction? And even the potential Toshiba's exit in the space? And then I have a follow-up.

Dave Mosley

Analyst · Rich Kugele with Needham & Co. Your line is open

Well, I guess a couple of answers, Rich. I think in terms of the macro view on the industry, I still think the investing world is not quite grasping. The transition is around where storage is being stored. It's locale of the storage, just not the amount of what's being stored that's basically shifting and those are architectural implications. And architectural implications are actually enhancing the application. So it's feeding off of one another, but from every source of data that we have, we still have 95% to 98% of your bits are ultimately being stored on a disk drive or more. As you know, cloud infrastructures usually replicate. So even though there is a reduced number of drives being in the client, the data being generated by the client is still ultimately stored on a disk drive. And as it turns out, it's exactly stored in a disk drive that is harder to make and takes more absorption in the factories in terms of number of heads and disk and the content in those heads and disk is quit a bit higher. So, from a manufacturer's perspective, it's a good thing because you are getting more absorption. That being said, there is a lot of growth in the silicon related pieces of the business, not at the expense of the HDD business per se and that's an area that we are serious about obviously. We are building what we think is a very good business, both at the systems level and the device level. And it stands what we do with HDDs as well as how we incorporate various levels of silicon, all way up to all-flash arrays and other devices. So we like the overall storage business and we particularly like the fact that we think that the…

Rich Kugele

Analyst · Rich Kugele with Needham & Co. Your line is open

Excellent. Just one follow-up. In terms of, obviously with the dividend yield now north of 9%, people are concerned supposedly on your cash flow and your ability to continue to pay the dividend. Do you believe that your cost cutting actions that you have implemented and I guess will be finished by June, that you will be able to have that more than $1 billion in cash flow annually and be able to fully fund that dividend?

Steve Luczo

Chairman

Yes. As I cited in the opening remarks, Rich, that our cash flow relative to our dividend payment is not concern for us at all.

Rich Kugele

Analyst · Rich Kugele with Needham & Co. Your line is open

Excellent. All right. Thank you very much.

Steve Luczo

Chairman

Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Mark Moskowitz with Barclays. Your line is open.

Mark Moskowitz

Analyst · Mark Moskowitz with Barclays. Your line is open

Yes. Thank you. Good Morning. Two questions, if I could. Steve, can you talk a little more about your exabyte trend line? It was down about 7% in the September quarter, roughly flat for December? Should we anticipate, just getting from your comments, around improvement and targeting higher cap, especially 10 terabyte, that we can see exabyte starting to actually grow in the first half of calendar 2016? And then kind of a follow-up part two of my question is that partly why you are saying you will raise pricing? Or is that comment more around like-for-like pricing and not pricing going up because of new schemes?

Steve Luczo

Chairman

Yes. Let me answer your back question and then I may direct you to an offline discussion so we may have debate about growth rates. But the pricing is like-for-like in certain rate market rises .We are not talking mix. We are talking about prices that have to address the value of the products in a lot of the client space, it's just ridiculous. And I think I made this statement a year ago that the industry was not serving itself by subsidizing client products by trying sell more nearline products just say within the margin range, because this day would come that you don't have any room left. And I think now the industry is recognizing it. Whether or not you are making 10 points of margin on the client or five points, it is nowhere near 20 which is what some people cited and that's nowhere near what you need to basically fund the technology going forward. So there is going to have to be adjustments on the client side to reflect what we do. So the price, I think, goes across certain markets and it's like-for-like. We show 10% growth sequentially in exabyte shipments for us, up to 60.6 exabytes. So I am not sure where that information is coming from that you are referencing. So instead of wasting time here --

Mark Moskowitz

Analyst · Mark Moskowitz with Barclays. Your line is open

I am talking year-over-year --

Steve Luczo

Chairman

So instead of talking about it on this call, because we see growth in exabytes and in the nearline space, I would rather take it offline, because it is going to chew up too much time debating data right now. But as I said in the script, we have 10% up sequentially on exabytes shipped and our enterprise exabytes were up 21%. So we are encouraged by the mix up in the enterprise and in the cloud service providers.

Mark Moskowitz

Analyst · Mark Moskowitz with Barclays. Your line is open

Okay. Yes. I was talking about year-over-year, which pretty much dovetails with your numbers, but it sounds like you definitely feel good about that growth trend line and we can see it continue to be a positive, both on a year-over-year and sequential basis.

Steve Luczo

Chairman

Yes. We do believe that.

Mark Moskowitz

Analyst · Mark Moskowitz with Barclays. Your line is open

Okay. Thank you.

Steve Luczo

Chairman

Yes. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Aaron Rakers with Stifel. Your line is open.

Aaron Rakers

Analyst · Aaron Rakers with Stifel. Your line is open

Yes. Thanks for taking the question. First real quickly I want to go back to Rich's question. I am curious on your thoughts on Toshiba as it relates to the hard disk drive business, given the recent news. And then also I was curious if you could just give us an update on the OpEx. I think in the past you talked about $460 million. Obviously you have done better than that. Is there further OpEx realignment? And then an update to that $460 million level exiting the fiscal year. Thank you.

Steve Luczo

Chairman

I forgot to answer the Toshiba question. Thanks for re-asking it. Yes, I don't know. We can't predict what's going on at Toshiba. We can say that we have noticed a marked decline in their presence in certain markets and maybe part of what Nidec was seeing was reduced from them. We don't know and we actually don't really believe Nidec sees all its orders two weeks into the quarter anyhow. But look, it's obviously a difficult situation at Toshiba at the corporate level and clearly their number one priority is to save the fabs and it doesn't make sense to me that being in the drive business serves that purpose. But what they decide is up to them. So if you had asked me where was my gauging of would Toshiba be in the business in the next one to three years today versus where was it six months or a year ago, I am much more towards the end that they are not going to be in this business in the next one to three years, just because I don't how I see how they can be competitively, given where areal density is going and given where manufacturing is and given some of their bigger corporate issues, I just can't imagine that that's where they want to spend their R&D expense or frankly their cash flow.

Aaron Rakers

Analyst · Aaron Rakers with Stifel. Your line is open

And on the OpEx?

Dave Morton

Analyst · Aaron Rakers with Stifel. Your line is open

On the OpEx side, Aaron, we did outperform. So we are ahead of where we said we would be and that was for exiting the fiscal year. I think we are happy at this level for now. We don't see a real reason to turn it down from here. We still have some ideas about how we might do that and still protect the product portfolio, but I think we are going to run the rest of the fiscal year at this level. And then we will see how the market develops in the next couple of quarters and see what we have do in FY2017.

Aaron Rakers

Analyst · Aaron Rakers with Stifel. Your line is open

Okay. Thank you.

Steve Luczo

Chairman

Yes. Again, just to emphasize, Aaron, that's what my point was that we think the next focus of our effort is around issues that impact gross margin.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Ananda Baruah with Brean Capital. Your line is open.

Ananda Baruah

Analyst · Ananda Baruah with Brean Capital. Your line is open

Hi. Thanks guys. Congrats on a really solid trend in a tough environment as well. Just a quick one for me. Steve, I would love to get your thoughts, again just sort of circling back on application set for flash and for flash storage systems. One of your largest customers, a couple of days ago on their earnings call seemed to make a point of putting more energy around their view that flash, flash based systems are going to increasingly address general application set. Your earlier comments on this call of the 95% to 98%, which I know is probably more of a historically data driven remark, but the way you spoke about it, seems to suggest that you believe that they can stay in that 95% to 98% range. Any sort of nuance being that you have with regards to flash systems and their ability to address general application sets, would love to hear that. Thanks.

Steve Luczo

Chairman

I don't think they are inconsistent. I think you have the opportunity for flash to address general application sets, but the data is still being stored disk drives. It's just a question of what it is moving in and out of. In the old days, it was moving in and out of a CPU. Now it's being staged in different levels of, call it memory or storage, that basically allow for greater and faster processing applied against it. But at the end of the day, that stuff rests on an HDD. So my point was, sure, that layer above is a layer that we want to participate on and through Phil's efforts, we feel we will be quite successful there. But it's not eliminating the fact that bit ends up on a disk drive. In fact, it's going into a disk drive that's a pretty sporty, as Dave would say. It's a nearline drive that has lots of heads and disks and a really complicated VLSI architecture. So those are all things that we get paid for. Now, Phil, you want to talk a little bit more about what you are seeing?

Phil Brace

Analyst · Ananda Baruah with Brean Capital. Your line is open

Yes. I think that, to echo Steve's comment, where we see a lot of the flash, I would say, is on the new tier, if you will, right. A performance tier that does accelerate things and generally speaking, it's in front of large arrays of storage, large banks of storage. And that's where we see a lot of the growth. And we are investing some of our energy. And it is around that performance area.

Steve Luczo

Chairman

I was going to say, yes, I think in particular, as it relates to the super high performance, super high data rate, data processing applications like petro and some of the other energy applications, that's where our high-performance compute solution has been particularly strong because we really have the fastest system to feed those higher levels of, again, call it storage, call it memory. But somehow you have to have a back end that's serving that thing very well. And we have to be the leader in that space. And that leadership comes through partnerships as well as some great companies like Cray and Teradata and others.

Ananda Baruah

Analyst · Ananda Baruah with Brean Capital. Your line is open

Yes. That's great context. I really appreciate it. Thanks a lot.

Steve Luczo

Chairman

Great. Thanks. All right. We should probably have one last question.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We have a question from the line of Jayson Noland with Baird. Your line is open.

Jayson Noland

Analyst · Jayson Noland with Baird. Your line is open

Okay. Great. I guess a follow-up to this discussion. With some pressure on performance enterprise drives, 15K specifically and a tailwind in capacity drives, could you talk about your exposure to both? And if there is difference in the gross margin profile? Any significant difference between the two?

Dave Morton

Analyst · Jayson Noland with Baird. Your line is open

This is Dave. No significant difference between the two. I would say that the 15k lines are still in demand. There are still a lot of people pulling, not to the levels that maybe they were historically, but not 50% of what they were historically yet and I think we anticipate a fairly long tail there because it still provides a fairly low cost good value hitting the price band that has got a compelling performance tier. And it's important to note that a lot of places that those drives go today, that cost performance trade-off is really compelling compared to any other solution. Maybe the choke point is somewhere else in the architecture. Now that said, it's a million or 1.5 million drives a quarter and at the scale of Seagate, that's pretty small. So if we redeflect those heads and disks into other boxes, that doesn't really have a material impact on Seagate.

Jayson Noland

Analyst · Jayson Noland with Baird. Your line is open

Okay. Great. Thank you. Congrats on the quarter.

Steve Luczo

Chairman

Yes. Thanks very much.

Steve Luczo

Chairman

Okay. So just to wrap it up again, I guess we will again thank everyone and we look forward to speaking to you after the next quarter.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program and you may all disconnect. Everyone have a great day.