Robert S. Sands
Analyst · Tim Ramey with Davidson
Yes. This is Rob, Tim. I think that over the shorter term, wine consumption or the market has been perhaps a little weaker than we anticipated, sort of in the low single-digits, maybe growing around 2% or so. I think that, that's really being driven largely by the lower end of the market. So value wines, where a lot of pricing has been taken in the marketplace, I think that -- and everything overvalue, premium plus where we play, we continue to see sort of flat pricing, i.e. no pricing, to perhaps a little bit on the upside or some slightly decreased promo. I think consumer takeaway and premium plus continues to be strong certainly in super premium, ultra premium, luxury, et cetera. We still see very strong consumer takeaway, I would say that relative to the harvest, it's going to be another relatively large harvest, 2 large harvests in a row. Sort of the grape undersupply was greatly overstated. If you can put that all together, meaning there isn't much of a grape undersupply, in fact, we see in general bulk wine inventories have rebounded, are pretty strong right now. Prices for grapes have been coming down for the last couple of years ever since the perceived short harvest of, I think, 3 years ago sort of disproportionately affected that harvest because people got a little hysterical over it. And so in general, I would say that we see nothing in the wine business that is really unusual. I think even the slight weakness in consumer takeaway is really nothing odd. I think it's really, as I said, mostly a function of some significant pricing that was taken in basically 5-liter bag-in-the-box and jug wines. So I think it's a little artificial. So that's basically what I would say is the tone of the wine business.