Austin Harkness
Analyst · Theresa Chen with Barclays
Yes. Theresa, this is Austin. Happy to walk you through kind of what we're seeing on the demand and margin side of things, given our expanded portfolio, I'll sort of take those in reverse order. So just looking at the demand picture, overall, throughout -- so far this year, the consumer has been, I'd say, surprisingly resilient, right? So, starting in the U.S., despite the flat price volatility that we've seen, EIA would suggest refined product demand is roughly flat year-over-year despite the volatility that we've seen. And typically, in situations like this, when we're looking to see what the impact of flat price is going to be on consumer demand; one, it tends to be a function of how high flat price goes and for how long it remains volatile. And then two, the things that we typically will see from a consumer behavior standpoint will be either spend rationalization, so same number of trips, but by fewer gallons per trip or octane rationalization where consumers will trade down. Like I said, we haven't seen much of that in the U.S. In Canada, the demand picture is a touch softer with gasoline demand of low to mid-single digits year-over-year in Canada and roughly flat for ULSD. And then in the Caribbean, as I've shared, that's sort of -- people think of it as this monolithic region, but we are onshore in 24 different markets there, each of which have their own demand profile. But I would say, as a region overall, it's up low to mid-single digits. Now with all of that, obviously, our volumes have exceeded that in each of these geographies, just given our deployment of growth capital and organic capital and then the scale and diversity we're able to bring as we're capturing synergies over the first, call it, 7 months of the year. And then on the margin side of things, as we shared in the past, as a result of the acquisition, it's reasonable to expect our margin profile has evolved higher. To what extent and where the specific CPG margin [ print ] is going to be going forward? I think it's hard to say because there's going to be quarter-to-quarter volatility. And frankly, Theresa, you know us well enough. We don't spend a whole lot of time trying to analyze what the CPG margin number is going to be or volume, but rather solve for fuel profit and EBITDA growth overall. So, overall, I think the second quarter is a reflection of the team's strong execution to leverage our scale and supply chain optionality against the backdrop that Karl mentioned, which has been at times challenging, but at times favorable. So right now, it looks like flat price is back on the rise. That creates a headwind to the margin picture. But if demand does come off, obviously, that paints a fairly bullish picture for margin. And I think, as Joe shared, we're well positioned with our diversity, our scale and our geographic exposure to perform well and close out the year very strong regardless of what the macroeconomic environment looks like.