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Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV)

Q3 2021 Earnings Call· Thu, Nov 18, 2021

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Transcript

Ana Bartesaghi

Operator

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Grupo Supervielle Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Call. We apologize for the delay. This is Ana Bartesaghi, Treasurer and IRO. A slide presentation will accompany today's webinar, which is available in the Investors section of Grupo Supervielle's Investor Relations website. Today's conference call is being recorded. As a reminder, all participants will be in a listen-only mode. There will be an opportunity for you to ask questions at the end of today's presentation. [Operator Instructions] Speaking during today's call will be Patricio Supervielle, our Chairman and CEO; Atilio Dell’Oro Maini, Board Member, leading Grupo Supervielle Sustainability Strategy; and Mariano Biglia, our Chief Financial Officer. Also joining us are Alejandro Stengel, Second Vice Chairman of the Board and Vice CEO; and Oscar Ramírez, First Vice Chairman of the Board; Alejandra Naughton, Board Member of several Grupo Supervielle subsidiaries will also be joining us for today's call. All will be available for the Q&A session. As a reminder, today's call will contain forward-looking statements which are based on management current expectations and beliefs, and are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, including as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. And I refer you to the forward-looking statements section of our earnings release and recent filings with the SEC. We assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect new or changed events for this conference. Today, Mariano Biglia, our CFO, will start the call discussing our performance for the quarter and our near-term outlook. Mr. Patricio Supervielle, our Chairman and CEO, will follow with an update on our midterm strategy initiatives. Afterwards, Atilio Dell’Oro Maini will provide an overview of the key elements of our ESG strategy and goals. Mariano Biglia, Chief Financial Officer.

Mariano Biglia

Analyst

Thank you, Ana. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Please turn to Slide 4 of our earnings presentation. While we saw a rebound in economic activity to pre-pandemic levels this quarter, we continue to operate under challenging market conditions with high inflation, negative real interest rates and industry loans at historical lows and growing below inflation. In addition, Central Bank regulations continue to weigh on NIM. We delivered sequentially improved results, reporting an attributable loss of AR$60 million in third Q '21 compared to AR$348 million in the prior quarter. This was mainly driven by lower loan loss provisions, reflecting our strong underwriting and collection policies, along with the pickup in economic activity. Lower operating expenses also contributed to this performance, where we continue to resize our branch network acceleration efficiencies and executing our digital and channel transformation strategy. Our comparable efficiency ratio, excluding nonrecurring severance payments and early retirement charges, improved to 71% this quarter from 72% in the second quarter, also significantly impacted by a lower revenue base. Looking at the first nine months of the year and excluding nonrecurring charges, expenses were down nearly 7% year-on-year. We also maintained a solid capital base with Tier 1 ratio of 14.1% at quarter end and a strong liquidity to navigate the current environment and implement our strategic transformation. Patricio will provide shortly an update of our progress on our digital and channel transformation agenda, followed by Atilio, who will present our key ESG milestones and goals. Now please turn to Slide 5. We expanded our loan book by 5% sequentially, growing above industry levels and recovering market share. Loan growth was mainly driven by higher mandatory redline to SMEs, which rose to a balance of nearly AR$20 billion accounted for over 30% of total loans…

Patricio Supervielle

Analyst

Thank you, Mariano. You heard Mariano present our financial results and views for the remainder of the year and 2022. In this challenging context, we remain fully focused on advancing on our transformation strategy. Starting with the transformation of our brand channels, using best-in-class technologies to facilitate self-service banking and expand SME reach, with the vision of everywhere and anytime banking. First, digitized customers have increased consistently over the past two years and were up 76% since March last year. Second, keeping a strong focus on the customer experience, we recently deployed an upgraded version of the bank's mobile app, rated 4.4 in the Play Store and 4.3 in the App Store. Third, with the successful performance of our Virtual Hub MVPs for individuals in the province of Banco San Luis, while starting to scale this hybrid model to other regions and segments, and expanding our footprint while offering a superior customer experience, combining the strength of our face-to-face approach with a high efficiency of our virtual hub. This also allowed us to expand our footprint through our national territory with our leading branches. And fourth, in the past four months, modernized and expanded services to SMEs and related segments in 11 branches that were previously solely dedicated to senior citizens and expect -- we expect to convert four additional branches to multi-second format before year-end. Now please turn to Slide 11. At the same time, we have been introducing technological innovation at our senior citizen branches facility in self-service banking for this customer segment, which was the least advanced in terms of digital adoption. Let me share some examples of the success of these initiatives. To allow for extended banking hours and higher efficiencies, we enlarged our 24-hour lobbies, increasing the number of biometric cash dispensers located in these…

A - Ana Bartesaghi

Analyst

Thank you, Atilio. At this time, we will be conducting the question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] The first questions come from Ernesto Gabilondo at Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Ernesto Gabilondo

Analyst

Thank you for your presentation and for the opportunity. My first question is on the political outlook in Argentina. After the midterm elections, I would like to know which do you think are the key challenges ahead? And if you think there are like potential key dates that we should be following? So that's my first question.

Patricio Supervielle

Analyst

Well, first of all, there was a clear win of the opposition. And what I believe that -- I mean, the President has announced that in December, this December, they will present a multiyear economic program in order to have the approval of Congress. And what we expect, I mean we know that there is a deadline with the IMF. So there is short time frame for the government to negotiate this multiyear plan in order to make it -- to have more sustainable fiscal policies, FX -- more realistic also FX levels in order to enhance export-oriented industries and to strengthen the reserves of the Central Bank. I -- what is not yet really clear is whether there is a clear line in the government in order to make this, let's say, a commitment for this economic plan. We will see this is very -- it's going to be an interesting period. But I think also the attitude -- what is important is the attitude of the IMF, whether they will, let's say, allow for sort of model through economic policy until 2023 or they will be strict in the sense that they want to have lessening of expenditures, public expenditures and reduction of subsidies and so on. So this is, I think, the -- what we are looking for. I don't know if you want to add something, Alejandro, on that?

Alejandro Stengel

Analyst

I think you've hit on most of the points, Patricio. As you said, it's key to understand what the scope and the depth of the agreement with the IMF will be. And going back to Ernesto's question, as to date, I think that you should follow carefully these talks to be able to establish when an agreement is reached.

Ernesto Gabilondo

Analyst

Perfect. Then just a second question on the fintech competitive landscape. I would appreciate if you can share with us who you see as the main players. The one I have on top of my mind is Ualá. And how do you think IIUDÚ and your new digital initiatives are against the other fintechs?

Patricio Supervielle

Analyst

Okay. I think that I mean, Ualá basically is focusing on providing solutions for people who don't have bank accounts and they are giving a value proposition on that. And -- but I mean, the main problem is that they don't have deposits. No, this is the reason why now they are applying for a banking license. In order to reach scale in Argentina, you need to have a license to get deposits. And you can see this, for instance, if you look at the size of the funds that were collected by the Mercado Pago in relation to the fund industry is nearly irrelevant, and they've been working on this. So this is an extreme example that the -- let's say, only working with transactionality as a fintech player in Argentina is not -- they don't -- they are not able to reach -- they need to have, let's say, a bank license in order to become a player in Argentina because of the restrictions we have in Argentina. In the case of IUDÚ, IUDÚ is transforming itself from a consumer finance operation fully -- almost fully focused in providing financial services, credit card and personal loans to people, customers who come to Chango -- to the Walmart Changomas supermarket stores towards now to a full digital service. And we -- for our main goal now will be to attract deposits, retail deposits. And this will have a significant impact for us to -- I believe, to lower our cost of funds and to have a much more sustainable business. And I hope -- and I think it will impact a lot in the overall net income revenue of -- on capital creation of Grupo Supervielle. I don't know if you want to add something on the fintech, Alejandro?

Alejandro Stengel

Analyst

I think you mentioned the key issue of funding and access to funding. I also think that IUDÚ has done a terrific job at enhancing customer experience and putting together a very superior product offering. And I think those two things, combined with the strength of the funding capability, will make a very strong positioning in the market in the next quarters.

Ana Bartesaghi

Operator

Our next question comes from Gabriel Nóbrega at Citi. Please go ahead. Gabriel Nóbrega: Sorry about that. I was having some technical difficulties. My first question is actually on loan demand. If you could elaborate further, what's driving the some higher demand which we are seeing? I know that you're saying in your press release that it's due to the government programs focused on SMEs. But I just wanted to understand if you think that we are at an inflection point, where loan demand isn't going to start increasing? And then how are you going to be able to control your adverse selection in this scenario? And I'll ask a second question afterwards.

Patricio Supervielle

Analyst

Okay. We -- I mean, Gabriel, it's real that we are in a very low point of loan demand, credit loan demand. And we believe that it has mainly to do with the lack of business confidence and also consumer confidence. So we need these signals to reignite the loan demand. Having said that, there are certain particular enterprises that are export oriented, and they continue to perform well in the economy, and they are asked -- I mean, they -- we continue to serve them with different lines of credit, particularly pre-export financing. Also, there are enterprises that take advantage of subsidized loans to take leasing lines, where we are very strong in leasing in order to replace equipment. And for individuals, it's -- I think it's the same problem, very lack -- I mean lack of appetite for loan demand. What we see eventually is an interest in car financing because people see in Argentina to take cars to be a protection of value. So used car financing is driving certain number of loans at the bank level and also IUDÚ. I don't know if you want to add on that, Alejandro?

Alejandro Stengel

Analyst

Basically, I would mention that what we've seen during most of the pandemic, until there was a turning point in which the economy started to pick up, was that the working capital of most of SMEs and corporates have been going down. So there is an effect of replenishing working capital as the economy picks up, and that's basically what we are supporting. In terms of the adverse selection, which I believe is the second part of your question, we are focusing on -- first on our own clients and helping them take off and regain much of the economic activity. And in many sectors, we're seeing that the level of economic activity is back to pre-pandemic levels and in some sectors, even beyond that. So the first focus is on clients that we know, on sectors which we've operated on and the value chains that we've worked in. The other focus is really supporting a pickup in some export-oriented sectors, for example, meat packing which are really picking up and are showing good progress, too. So we believe that there is significant room for growth from, as Atilio pointed out, very low credit penetration levels.

Patricio Supervielle

Analyst

In addition, in order to control, let's say, credit risk, also a large -- substantial part of our -- for instance, in the case of individuals, a substantial part of our personal loans are given to individuals that collect their salaries in the bank. It's around 70% of all personal financing in -- is with the -- debiting their accounts at the bank. So these also lowers, let's say, an adverse selection. And for enterprises, for corporations, I also said, in addition, to complement to what Alejandro mentioned, is that we continue to do a lot of cash flow-based financing, which is by itself, it's a way of controlling risks. But inflection point, I think we need to wait a truly inflection point. I think we will reach it in 2023 with a political change. This is my opinion. Gabriel Nóbrega: All right. That's very clear. And actually, I have a follow-up from the previous question on the fintech landscape. I understand you talked about Ualá. And what I wanted to understand is that you show this that you have around 500,000 digital customers. But when you compare with Ualá, they already issued more than 2 million on prepaid cards. So I wanted to understand here, is there a strategy from you to some growth lower the number of clients maybe try to monetize them faster? Or are you still aiming at the adding clients in a faster manner in the coming quarters?

Alejandro Stengel

Analyst

Yes. What meaning that you have to bear in mind when you look at these figures, Gabriel, is when these operations are making money or not and how long we will take to monetize all this customer acquisition. What we've seen in financial services is just recruiting clients is not enough to able to have a sustainable strategy of attack. This is why we emphasized in our strategy the ability of having the right funding, particularly in the Argentine environment; and secondly, trying to have a principle or an integral relationship cross-selling several products. We approach this segment with this more comprehensive view. And we aim absolutely at having this relationship of several products with the right funding to be able to drive growth. We believe that the cost-to-income proportion would be much better and that the leverage we can have on our capital over the deposit base that we will capture will allow us to scale adequately with a very efficient model.

Ana Bartesaghi

Operator

Our next questions come from Rodrigo Nistor from AR Partners. Please go ahead.

Rodrigo Nistor

Analyst

I have a question regarding the income tax rate, if you could explain further reasons behind the high effective tax rate? And what should we expect going forward? And then I have a follow-up.

Patricio Supervielle

Analyst

Mariano, do you want to go on that, please?

Mariano Biglia

Analyst

Yes. I can comment on that, Rodrigo. For the income tax rate, we have two main sources that increased the effective tax rate. The statutory income tax rate is 35%, but there are centering differences between the statutory income statement and the income segment for tax return. The main differences arise from the value of fixed assets acquired before 2017. That difference are permanent. So they create an increasing cost as the income for income tax purposes is higher than our profit before income tax, in our statutory income statement. And second and probably more important, has to do with deferred tax assets and tax gross carry forward, which they are not -- according to the income tax law, they are not adjusted and they are -- they don't accrue any interest. So we have mainly at IUDÚ, we have AR$1.2 billion in deferred tax assets and tax loss carryforwards. And these assets lose value over time with inflation. So that loss of value as it relates to income tax according to IFRS is recognized in the income tax line item. So that increases the chart in the income tax line item and creates, in turn, a higher effective tax rate. Both the tax have a larger impact when profit before income tax is lower than we have, as last year, the profit different income tax of AR$4 billion. This impact would already increase effective tax rates, maybe from 35% to 40%. But when profit before income tax is lower, it has a great impact and turn it up to 100% eventually.

Rodrigo Nistor

Analyst

Okay. And then if I may have a more strategic question, maybe to Patricio. I would like to know briefly what makes him more enthusiastic about the future of the industry and what concerns you the most about today's Argentina banking system?

Patricio Supervielle

Analyst

Well, I think that the financial industry is bearing, let's say, the cost of the -- an economy which is not in equilibrium. And the -- what -- of course, what worries me is that let's say, main business, which is providing loans to the private sector, has diminished over the last three years and you can see this in the loan-to-deposit ratio, which is a minimum in historic levels. And I think it reflects what is happening in the financial industry as a whole. There's lack of demand. And also there's another aspect, which also worries me is there is lack of savings. So it's -- and the lack of savings, it has also to do with the absolute lack of confidence in our currency. We have a confidence problem. We need to get clear signals for investments, clear signals for deregulation, clear signals for export industries, signals for having an equilibrium in the monetary -- I mean, in monetary policies in order to have a currency that -- I mean, that basically gets to lower inflation.

Alejandro Stengel

Analyst

The part of enthusiastic.

Patricio Supervielle

Analyst

Pardon me?

Alejandro Stengel

Analyst

The first question was what makes you enthusiastic.

Patricio Supervielle

Analyst

What makes me enthusiastic is basically -- I mean, my enthusiasm, I think, has to -- basically is related to, let's say, if -- I think if there is a -- what we have seen on the political side now is that -- I think, is that a request of the society to have a more pro-market political economy. And I hope that they will -- I mean, the government will hear this request of the society to have a more pro-market stance.

Ana Bartesaghi

Operator

Our next question comes from Juan Recalde at Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Juan Recalde

Analyst

I have two questions. One is related to NIM and the second one related to the international expansion. So in terms of NIM, you mentioned that you expect NIM pressure to continue, given the low loan demand and regulations. So my question there is does this quarter reflect the full regulatory pressure? Or can we expect NIM to go down in the coming quarters? And related to that, how is the bank working to limit the NIM pressure? And the second question, related to international expansion, can you help us understand the strategy for expanding outside Argentina? Are there any goals that you can share with us? And also, can the bank free -- can the group freely move capital outside the country with the current regulations?

Patricio Supervielle

Analyst

Okay. Okay. Let's first answer the -- about the NIMs. Mariano will help, but simply, I would like to state that there is a pressure -- there's a continuous pressure of NIMs and mainly to do with the punitive regulations of the Central Bank, but also it has a lot to do with the lack of demand of loans. When loans resumes, it will help us definitely to, let's say, to have better NIMs. But do you want to answer the first question on NIMs, Mariano?

Mariano Biglia

Analyst

Sure, Patricio. Juan, well, in effect, this quarter, we are seeing the full impact of Central Bank regulations and also an adverse macroeconomic environment. So, we have very negative interest rates with the leagues paying 3% interest rate, repos 36.5%, and that compares with an inflation of more than 50% in the last 12 months. So this leads also to a very low operating demand in that environment. We have regulated floors for time deposits because we would normally lower the interest rate that we pay on time deposits. So remain positive spread. So it's a very challenging environment, and we will see definitely the full impact of it in this quarter. But as you can see, we have the lowest NIM in the last five quarters. So regarding the second part of your question, what we can do to sustain and increase that NIM in the future. We aim to grow in deposits, not regulated time deposits, but on mainly, for instance, in savings accounts and corporate current accounts. We have increased the average volume of corporate current accounts. This quarter, we are seeing that also in the first month of the fourth quarter. So that is very important. Also then, we need to increase our loan portfolio as credit demand resumes. We've seen in the last quarters, particularly the third Q, we see a -- we saw a growth of 5% in real terms. And so we gained a bit of market share there. It's still in the SMEs programs, the subsidized loans that are mandatory. So it doesn't have a -- still a very large positive income in NIM. But it's still a long road where we replace Central Bank instruments by loans to the private sector and that's what we intend to do in the future. And we expect 2022 to be a year where we resume growth above inflation, and that will lead us to increase NIMs.

Patricio Supervielle

Analyst

In terms of the international expansion that we want to pursue beyond that -- I mean, recreating revenues beyond Argentina, at IUDÚ Servicios, which is basically a platform to deliver health services and also services -- wellbeing services to individuals, we will start deploying -- we've reached agreement with two companies, Europ Assistance and [Asystel] is an Argentine company that provides health services. And Europe Assistance is more geared to wellbeing services in the home of an individual. So with both companies, we reached an agreement to start deploying in Paraguay as of the -- in the second quarter of 2022. And basically, what they are doing is they will be funding, they will be providing commercial -- I mean, commercial funding, which is it's -- this is basically -- we will use this funding in order to deploy digital marketing in order to attract customers. And it's going to be like our first beachhead in Latin America, beyond Argentina. And from there on, we plan to continue to go to other countries. It's a business that -- I mean, our goal -- the goal in IUDÚ Servicios is that in three years from now to -- let's say, to have 200,000 customers in five countries. So this will give us let's say, 1 million customers in three years, this is what we plan to get. And this is basically -- just to give you an idea, in Argentina, with the same lines of businesses, we already have 320,000 customers that we developed providing these services. So we believe that we can reach that and get revenues beyond Argentina. Then for InvertirOnline, InvertirOnline is -- we are working on a business plan. We already said that we requested our authorization in the Central Bank of Uruguay to presume regional -- to provide regional investment services for -- in Latin America, excluding Brazil, for -- particularly for the providing services or investment services in the U.S. market. And so we are working on the technology -- technological platform to deliver this in -- from Uruguay, from -- with this license of -- broker license in Uruguay. And in addition to -- in order to start our deployment, we already have secured around $5 million that are already in a holding out of Argentina. This is basically dividends that were paid from InvertirOnline Argentina, and they were paid and basically, they are in holding outside of Argentina. We will start growing this -- with this capital.

Ana Bartesaghi

Operator

Our next question comes from Alejandra Aranda at Itau. Hello, good morning, Alejandra.

Alejandra Aranda

Analyst

I have two questions, if I may. The first one is related to the costs. I mean I was positively surprised by the performance this quarter. And given that the outlook is challenging on the income side, I was wondering what to expect going forward, especially given the rightsizing that you've been doing.

Patricio Supervielle

Analyst

Okay. Do you want to go on that Mariano? Or you prefer...

Alejandro Stengel

Analyst

I can start and then Mariano can correct...

Mariano Biglia

Analyst

Alejandra, we see lots of opportunities for enhancing our efficiency. Many have been triggered by the acceleration of the adoption of digital and automated channels throughout our branch network. The others come from the digital transformation process we've been discussing over the large quarters, and all these boiled down to a reduction in the total amount of headcount we need to operate and a reduction in the total amount of branches. We also see opportunities on the revenue side because the digital capabilities are giving us an opportunity to expand our footprint without actually having to deploy a physical branch network. So this combination is helping, as you've noticed, and we foresee this trend to continue throughout 2022.

Alejandra Aranda

Analyst

Okay. But in terms of a level of efficiencies that we should be looking at for the next couple of quarters?

Mariano Biglia

Analyst

Well, you've seen a 6% increase -- sorry, decrease in headcount. And I think that we will probably be around that level moving forward.

Patricio Supervielle

Analyst

Yes, Alejandra, also to complement what Alejandro said also at IUDÚ, IUDÚ is also in the middle of a huge transformation from a consumer finance company where business was done mainly in the traffic of supermarkets and towards a digital banking full digital banking service. And that entails a change of the way we do business, even in the -- for instance, the case of supermarket, the people that are in the supermarket, we will foster a much more, let's say the way clients they interact will be much more digital. And so this -- we will see in 2022, a substantial efficiency in terms of headcount also at IUDÚ because of this transformation that we are working on. And so you will see this in overall Grupo Supervielle, we have a significant reduction of headcount in 2022, besides the bank.

Alejandra Aranda

Analyst

If I may follow up on that. I mean there's a huge demand for digital jobs and digital native workers. How are you seeing the market there? How are you competing with the fintechs and also with the so-called blue labor with other companies from coming and taking the opportunity to hire people the blue chip swap?

Patricio Supervielle

Analyst

All right. It's a very good question, Alejandra, you need to ask on retention of talent, basically. Oscar Ramírez: You're quite right, Alejandra. It's becoming more and more challenging. And yes, we are competing with fintechs, with big tech and also with international companies that are hiring Argentine talent for work abroad. So it is becoming challenging. What we've done is basically first, focus on the key areas where we're getting most attrition. This is basically digital talent, as you pointed out. We're working there on value proposition. And there are several aspects of the way that we work and the ability to address different needs that our workforce has under these challenging times. So part of it has to do with adjusting the way we work at workplace. Second, as I mentioned before, the value proposition, adjusting it to market and keeping track on these changes, but also introducing other different alternatives in the way in which we compensate and in the way that we motivate. Some of these are basically out of focus groups that we do with the teams and also require a greater involvement in the digital transformation of some of the seniors of the organization to help the new talent navigate. So we think that this problem would actually become greater over time because the transformation we're doing at Supervielle is getting more and more visibility. So, we are getting prepared for it, and we are having so far, good success in retaining some of the cases that have been got forward, but it is getting tougher going forward.

Alejandra Aranda

Analyst

Okay. May I do a third one?

Ana Bartesaghi

Operator

Yes, sure.

Alejandra Aranda

Analyst

Short one. What's the minimum level that you feel comfortable in terms of coverage?

Mariano Biglia

Analyst

Yes, I can comment on that. As you know, we work with expected loss models according to IFRS. So just now, like a magic percentage you'd like to, let's say, 100% or 150%. It will depend on the loan portfolio, the mix of that portfolio, the outlook looking forward, that's also a component of expected loss. That is the forward-looking part of the model. So we are comfortable with the level we have right now. We think it's adequate as we thought it was adequate to have a larger coverage in the past, where we had less visibility and also the automatic rescaling was in place. So looking forward, I would expect to probably decrease coverage as we feel comfortable using the COVID-specific provisions that we created during last year. Last quarter, we had AR$2.4 billion COVID-specific provisions, now they decreased to AR$1.6 million, and that should decrease in the futures, of course, always that the situation gets back to normal.

Ana Bartesaghi

Operator

Thanks for all your questions as well. We have reached today's question-and-answer session. Thank you for joining us today. Thank you for the interest in our company. We look forward to meeting more of you over the coming months and providing financial and business updates next quarter. In the interim, we remain available to answer any questions that you may have. Thank you, and stay safe and healthy.