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Grupo Supervielle S.A. (SUPV)

Q4 2022 Earnings Call· Tue, Mar 14, 2023

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Transcript

Ana Bartesaghi

Operator

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to Grupo Supervielle's Fourth Quarter and Year-end 2022 Earnings Call. This is Ana Ines Bartesaghi, Treasurer and IRO. A slide presentation will accompany today's webinar, which is available in the Investors section of Grupo Supervielle's Investor Relations website. Today's conference call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] Speaking during today's call will be Patricio Supervielle, our Chairman and CEO; and Mariano Biglia, our Chief Financial Officer. Also joining us is Alejandro Stengel, First Vice Chairman of the Board and CEO at Banco Supervielle. All will be available for the Q&A session. As a reminder, today's call will contain forward-looking statements based on management's current expectations and beliefs and subject to several risks and uncertainties. I refer you to the forward-looking statements section of our earnings release and recent filings with the SEC. We assume no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements to reflect new or changed events or circumstances. Patricio Supervielle, our Chairman and CEO, will start the call discussing the key highlights of the quarter and progress on our transformation initiatives. Afterwards, Mariano Biglia, our CFO, will take a deeper look at our performance and near-term perspectives. This will be followed by a Q&A session. Patricio, please go ahead.

Julio Patricio Supervielle

Analyst

Thank you, Ana. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. Now please turn to Slide 3 of our earnings presentation. 2022 was a transformational year for the company, which I'm pleased to report that we have achieved substantial advances in executing on our key strategic pillars, progressing on our return to profitability and building the bank of the future. With inflation -- yearly inflation figure at 95%, the highest point since 1991, pressuring cost and margins, we made headway -- significant headway to boost productivity throughout the year by rationalizing our operations while further enhancing the customer experience. Let me take you through how we accomplished this. First, by completing the integration of our consumer finance client base and back office in Banco Supervielle and full merging IUDU into the bank on schedule, we are capturing a major source of efficiency in a sector that has suffered greatly from the challenging macro environment. With this, a total of ARS 14 billion [ owns and ] nearly 20,000 clients were transferred to the bank, while we reduced headcount at IUDU by 96%. In turn, those customers now enjoy access to an extensive array of financial services and products for a seamless omnichannel experience. In line with our current focus on prioritizing cross-selling and engagement among our customer base of the acquisition, we recently terminated our agreement with Dorinka, which operates the Changomas retail chain. Second, we made significant progress in rightsizing and transforming our branch network as we pursue our vision of becoming the bank of the future. To this end, we reduced a total of 27 branches during the year, including 18 that serviced government employees in the Province of San Luis and the closure of 9 branches that were already approved by the regulator. We expect to…

Mariano Biglia

Analyst

Thank you, Patricio, and good day, everyone. Please turn to Slide 6. Results for the quarter were impacted by one-time items in connection with the merger of IUDU, as Patricio mentioned earlier. When looking at our results on a sequential basis, we reported a net loss of nearly ARS 800 million in the quarter compared to a net loss of ARS 660 million in the third quarter. The main factors behind this sequential performance include: first, net financial income declined 7% or ARS 2 billion, reflecting the full impact on cost of funds from the increase in market rates in the prior quarter, together with a lower return on inflation adjusting instruments. Recall that this quarter compares against a strong third quarter which benefited from higher market rates on our investment portfolio versus a weaker second quarter. Second, loan loss provisions increased 23% by ARS 600 million, with asset quality across all segments in line with third quarter levels, except for consumer finance, which suffers more from deteriorating market conditions. Since late February, we are no longer originating new customers -- new consumer finance, credit card loans at Changomas. Third, a 4% increase in personal expenses were ARS 500 million, reflecting additional one-time severance charges at the bank and IUDU from the headcount reduction. And fourth, a 9% increase in administrative expenses for ARS 900 million, as cost savings achieved in the quarter were more than offset by the impairment of IUDU's goodwill and fixed assets. September 14 of last year, we announced our intention to merge IUDU with the bank. Although this decision needs to be approved by IUDU's shareholders' meeting to be held this coming April, we have already successfully transferred all of IUDU's loan portfolio of clients to the bank. We also shut down IUDU's regional savings…

Ana Bartesaghi

Operator

Thank you, Mariano. At this time, we will be conducting the question and answer session. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Ernesto Gabilondo with Bank of America. Ernesto María Gabilondo Márquez: My first question will be on how do you see the potential normalization of the Argentine economy. How fast do you think we can see the normalization? And how would you compare it against the Macri's administration, considering that today, Argentina faces higher inflation, higher interest rates and a lower level of reserves?

Mariano Biglia

Analyst

Ernesto, I will try to answer this question. Today, on this normalization has to take into consideration, as you mentioned, in Argentina, we are suffering the highest inflation since 1991 as well as our much more stricter foreign exchange control that we went through in 2015. If you look in the international side also, the fact that there are interest rates, nominal interest rates much higher to have for many years, this is more challenging for a country such as Argentina. The war in Ukraine as well as the spike in world inflation, commodity prices that are high, but unfortunately, with the drought, it's more complicated for Argentina. So this is quite a challenging scenario. So regarding the changes we expect, we -- first of all, we believe that there will be more consensus. There is more political consensus to apply a shock therapy rather than a gradual approach. That means that the -- it is to be expected that the changes will include not only measures on -- and signals on the monetary and fiscal front, but also, for instance, on labor reforms, which are absolutely necessary. Having said that, the -- it's -- you have to expect probably that to exit the foreign exchange control will take time, and that part we probably, I guess that -- or we guess with the team, that's going to be quite gradual. And with that, with the deregulation and liberalization of foreign exchange control, then the changes in -- the regulatory changes will come in sync -- synchronized with all the changes in the business outlook, the normalization of fiscal policies and so on. So it's going to be synchronized. It's not going to be sudden. I hope you -- I answered your question. Ernesto María Gabilondo Márquez: Yes, perfect. And just a second question related to your market-related revenues position. Just wondering how would you position to Brazil's balance sheet this year, considering that inflation and rates will continue at a high level? So should we continue to see strong market-related revenues? And again, will you position them in [ the leagues ], in FX, in dual bonds. So anything you can share on that will be very helpful.

Julio Patricio Supervielle

Analyst

Alejandro, do you want to share on that? Emérico Alejandro Stengel: Yes. As Mariano pointed out, in terms of what we see in terms of guidance, we see that deposits will grow in line with inflation. Loans was probably a little bit below inflation. And in that context, we see, therefore, that the portion of government bonds, but particularly Central Bank notes, it will continue to be a significant part of our balance sheet. And we also think that we are in a good position to face this situation given the cost reductions that we've made. So the impact of a hit that inflation will have on our cost base will be far much better than what we had in our cost base during 2022. So in a very difficult context, we plan, as a result, to hit somewhere in the mid-range of the 12.5% to 13.5% capitalization, around 13% of capital, which is where we stand right now. I don't know if I addressed your question, Ernesto, or not. Please let me know.

Ana Bartesaghi

Operator

So our second question comes from Carlos Gomez-Lopez with HSBC.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez

Analyst

My question is also about the prospects for the future. But when I look back at the last 2 years of results, probably because of the very high inflation, you have had 2 years of losses at the comprehensive income level. Now you are gearing for a possible change. I mean at some point, we know that demand will come back. Your capital ratio is adequate, but one has the feeling that you would be doing better if you had more capital in the bank. Would you consider perhaps doing some preemptive recapitalization to prevent very possible problem in the future and to be in a better position to be ready to grow when the demand comes back? Would you consider injecting more capital in the bank at this point?

Julio Patricio Supervielle

Analyst

Okay. I understand your question as it relates to our capacity of growing, regard for the capital levels. So we have -- we believe that, first of all, all the changes we've been conducting over the past couple of years, and particularly last year, in the transformation in year, that allows us to make a significant headway in reducing on the cost side. The 21% reduction in headcount, the 27 branches that were either transferred or closed and merged, and in addition, we are also expecting an additional 20 branches that we expect to close by the first half of this year, all this is a major swing in cost and is a way of capital creation. On the revenue side, we believe that it depends on demand, loan demand. And loan demand will come with -- when the consumer confidence improves. We don't believe this will happen this year. We believe that it might happen maybe in -- by the second half of 2024. It's also going to be a difficult year in 2024. But we believe that, to answer your question, that when demand picks up, we have sufficient capital to compete and to provide to our customers, because we have -- we are working at the bank in a transformation that is going along all the strategic pillars. So not only working on costs, working on also on the cost of funding, improving the cost of funding, working on efficiency, working on maintaining the credit quality, working in digital adoption. All this is allowing us -- will allow us, we expect, to be able to compete with our capital and grow when things arise when there is a change in expectation. I hope I answer your question.

Carlos Gomez-Lopez

Analyst

No, you have answered my question. But again, the fact is that the capital ratios are adequate, but we know that when Argentina turns around, demand is not for 10% growth, it's for 100% growth. And at that point, you will need the capital. And also the fact that you don't have a lot of fixed assets right now is also affecting the way that the result is coming out with inflation. Again, I'm just suggesting that perhaps the recapitalizing the bank in anticipation of that demand coming through might be something that you might want to consider. But it's very clear.

Ana Bartesaghi

Operator

So we have a [ send-in ] in the Q&A box. I will read it. It comes from Alejandra Aranda with Itau. I will read 2 questions. One, maybe we answer that one and then the second one. Hi, I would like to get more clarity in terms of what costs and CapEx were recurring and what was nonrecurring in 2022 to understand how you will get to positive return on average equity in 2023.

Julio Patricio Supervielle

Analyst

Mariano, do you want to get this question?

Mariano Biglia

Analyst

Yes, thank you Patricio. Regarding cost and CapEx that were recurrent and nonrecurring last year, we incurred in severance costs in 2022 with -- for a total amount of ARS 7.5 billion. That's in a year where we reduced 21% the headcount, more than 90% of IUDU business unit. It's something non-required -- nonrecurrent. Of course, severance costs will now drop to 0 in 2023, but they will be significantly lower, both because the restructuring at IUDU has already been made, but also at the bank, we expect to lower severance cost. So there is a big and important savings opportunity on that front. And also in the IUDU business unit, where we look at the whole segment of IUDU Financial Services, in 2022, IUDU had losses of ARS 8 billion before taxes or ARS 4.9 billion net of taxes. So again, this segment, which has already been reduced in share of our loan book, and of course, for the operational costs have been dramatically reduced with the merge to the bank, and we're keeping the customers, this is still a segment that is very -- that will be challenged next year. So maybe losses will not drop to 0, but again, there will be a very important opportunity of reducing those costs. And I would say that one of the major shifts of avoiding a nonrecurrent costs that were nonrecurrent in 2022, but they weren't incurred last year, and we won't have to incur in 2023, and that's allowing us to return to a positive ROE. Together with all the other initiatives on the revenue side and other cost savings initiatives mainly at the bank, but with these 2 items, I think we can get some color on how to get to the positive ROE.

Ana Bartesaghi

Operator

Okay. We have then the second question also from Alejandra Aranda, should we expect any additional costs or increased provisioning due to IUDU? What's your expectation of possible risk and NPL during 2023?

Julio Patricio Supervielle

Analyst

Mariano?

Mariano Biglia

Analyst

Yes. Well, regarding IUDU, digital bank has already been merged the bank for those certain formal processes remain the operational side, where we have the bulk of the cost savings has already taken place. So now these customers are within the bank's retail segment. And we've also stopped the origination at the retail stores since the end of February, but keep the customers that we transfer from IUDU to the bank active, offering that full service -- the full array of services with the bank. In that context, we will reduce dramatically the cost of this operation mentioned before. On the cost of risk side, this is a segment that clearly suffered more than others in 2022 and will also be challenged in 2023. But it has the lower weight in our balance sheet than it used to have. Now it's around 6% of our loan portfolio. And second, by stopping the new originator of customers that were -- they started typically with their credit card and paying after a certain period, we could sell with personal loans or insurance. So we've had in this context, in this particular context and other repayments. So by stopping the original, keeping the clients where we know their behavior and they are great quality, we expect to make those customers profitably faster and reduce the impact in the cost of risk. That's why also in the overall picture of the growth, we expect cost of risk and NPL to be stable during the year compared with 2022.

Ana Bartesaghi

Operator

Okay. Carlos, we can see -- we can still see your hand raised. I don't know if this comes from your previous -- okay. So I think we are right to the end of the call, which then the end of today Q&A session. Thank you for joining us today. We appreciate your interest in our company. We look forward to meeting more of you over the coming months and providing financial and business updates next quarter. In the interim, we remain available to answer any questions that you may have. Thank you, and have a good day.