Leo Grimaldi
Analyst · Goldman Sachs. Your microphone is enabled.
Hi, Marcio, Leo here. Thanks for your question. You are -- I share your vision, but let me try to point out how we analyze this. First of all, the marginal cost of producers, as I mentioned today, is based on a group of producers in Europe, mainly affected by the FX on the back of the tariff war, also in South Korea and Japan. Traditionally and historically, we see that South Koreans and Japan and Japanese producers are less reactive in moments like this in terms of production curtailments, and Europeans are more reactive. So that's why I believe personally that these adjustments might come more towards Europe than to the other Asian countries. You are correct. This cash cost curve is based on a CIF, China port analysis. Most of them most of Europeans, Japanese or South Koreans sell in their local market, but as a commodity, through time, all markets follow whatever is going on in China. Markets are not completely separated, especially when you have more logistics, more available as we do have today. So obviously, we will see if this trend continues in China. It is my expectation that we're going to see spot deals in Europe and markets surrounding Europe like Middle East, Turkey or other Northern African markets reacting quick and matching or searching to match China peaks levels, and in this case, this is a key market for Europeans. There will be a big impact in that sense. In terms of China, I defer a bit in terms of how you position yourself. It is our view that, yes, the Chinese pulp producers are more competitive in the cycle due to the availability of cheaper wood, but it is our view that this marginal cost of producers range from the mid-400s to, I would say, a little bit over $500 or let's put it this way, $500. But also if we include Bumble players here, then we have a bit over $500 in that account. And regardless of who is right or who's wrong, if you compare to the existing resale prices, it's unsustainable either way, right? So if it's mid-400s, high-400s or a bit lower 400s, it's still cash destructive what we're seeing on this resale or the local industry selling their pulp in China. You asked a question about when will Suzano react. Let me put it this way. Commercially, if Marcos allow, I will sell. We will sell all the volume that we produce, that Aires produce, no matter what. We have reestablished our inventory levels. So whatever is available for us to sell, we will sell.