Michael Rippey
Analyst · B. Riley FBR. Your line is open
Well, Lucas, this is really a better question, I think, for the steel makers to answer. We concern ourselves with the same things you do with regard to capacity additions. Those are announced capacity additions. I believe STI now has more recently confirmed the siting of their 3 million ton facility. But some of those other announcements are just that. Because something is announced doesn't mean it's built. The market for light flat roll continues to grow as it has historically at kind of half the GDP. If infrastructure spending were to increase as it needs over the coming years, there will be greater demand than lesser. So, there's room for demand to continue to grow given the fundamentals of our economy, which would absorb, of course, some of that capacity. Also, as you're aware, during this run up that we saw, rapid run up in hot rolled prices last year, some capacity which had been idled came back online. Some of that capacity, I use the word tertiary, it kind of comes and goes. So, some of that capacity could come back off of line. I'm speculating now. And again, it's a better question for the steel producers in terms of how they intend to defend and grow their market share in a market that's always seen new investment, imports, clear our market. As you're well aware, the US steel market is in structural deficit and is requiring of imports just to balance itself. So, I think you have to think about the presence of imports when you talk about additional capacities. It's not static. It's rather quite elastic. So, imports could be part of that. I think STI has, in fact, said that they're well positioned to defend against imports with their new mill in Texas. So, it's a good question, but there's a lot more in play than simply adding announced capacity and concluding that somehow that has to be surrendered by the existing market. I think our customers are very well-positioned to serve the markets that they do. And again, that's a better question for them. But they've been at it for a long time and I think their customers appreciate the support that they provide with product and innovation and a variety of other services. So, good question. Let's wait and see, but we're not overly concerned at this point in time. We believe our customers can compete well.