John Stephens
Analyst · Buckingham Research. Please go ahead
Thank you, Mike and hello everyone. Thanks for joining us today and as always thanks for your interest in AT&T. As you can see in our second quarter results, our moves to transform the company are working and working well. We grew revenues, expand the margins and achieved double-digit adjusted EPS growth. Cash flows were strong allowing us to invest in our business, return substantial value to shareholders and strengthen our cash position. Our moves to reposition our smartphone customer base are working achieving the expected results. Almost 80% of the smartphone base is already on Mobile Share Value plans and 68% of our smartphone sales and upgrades were on AT&T Next. When you are adding the customers who brought their own device, nearly three quarters of smartphone sales were without subsidies. This helped drive strong postpaid phone-only with Next ARPU growth and best ever service margins. In wireline, our transition to IT services continues at a strong cliff. U-verse services are more than 70% of consumer revenues and helped drive near 4% adjusted revenue growth. Strategic services are now a third of our wireline business revenues and continue to grow at a very strong pace. So, all in all, a very strong quarter as we begin the diversification of our company. Our growth in cost initiatives, such as Project VIP and Project Agile, are working. We are executing at a high level and we have a solid foundation for growth as we move forward. Now, let’s take a closer look at our operational highlights starting with wireless on Slide 5. Our wireless strategy is working. Our efforts to reposition the smartphone base to the no subsidy model have taken hold. We continue to see solid evidence that our efforts are paying off. First, the most significant shift of our smartphone customers to Mobile Share Value plans is behind us. This has helped stabilize service revenues, which were essentially flat for the quarter. There was heavy promotional activity on last year’s second quarter, which pressured service revenues. So, our disciplined sales approach this year helped in our year-over-year comparison. Second, as service revenues stabilized and the number of customers using AT&T Next increases, we have seen our postpaid phone ARPU with Next increase steadily. It was up more than 6% year-over-year. And our postpaid phone-only revenues increased sequentially reaching its highest level in three quarters. We are about halfway through the expected Next sales cycle as customers upgrade their smartphones. As they do, we expect continued ARPU with Next growth as more customers upgrade. Our focus on costs, Cricket’s operational efficiencies and other cost savings programs, such as Project Agile, help drive strong margin expansion in the quarter. Our adjusted wireless EBITDA service margin was 48.5%, our best performance ever and an almost 600 basis point improvement over last year’s second quarter. The story of the last six quarters has been repositioning our smartphone base. This has moved subscribers away from the heavy handset subsidies in exchange for lower monthly pricing. For the last several quarters, customers on pre-Next pricing have been ahead of us, but we are starting to see the benefits of the strategy. Let’s talk more about that on Slide 6. We have made remarkable progress in transitioning our customers to Mobile Share Value plans. In a little more than a year, nearly two-thirds of our smartphone base has moved to the no subsidy discount pricing of Mobile Share Value. While customers continue to choose these plans, the growth rate is slowing as the penetration has been achieved. On the other hand, the revenue growth opportunity with AT&T Next has much farther to go. About 68% of our smartphone sales in the quarter were on AT&T Next, but our Next customer base is only about 37%. That gives us substantial opportunity to grow revenues as these customers upgrade their smartphones. We expect penetration rates for both Mobile Share Value and AT&T Next to continue to grow. AT&T Next and Bring Your Own Device are about 90% of postpaid smartphone sales are company-owned stores and have programs – and we have programs in place to generate similar or better rates in our other channels. And the Mobile Share Value plans, continues to draw new customers. Only about 12% of our smartphone base is still on unlimited data plans and that has been steadily dropping as customers choose to move to our new Mobile Share Value plans. We also continue to see growth in the percentage of our postpaid base on Mobile Share Value family plans or business plans. That total has reached 96% in this past quarter. These plans tend to be more sticky with lower churn. We also turned in another strong net add quarter as postpaid, prepaid and connected devices drove our highest net adds in more than 3 years. Those details are on Slide 7. Total net adds came in at 2.1 million subscribers, including 410,000 postpaid subscribers and 1.4 million connected devices. Cricket is really kicking in the gear. Prepaid voice had a strong turnaround year from a year ago. We gained more than 330,000 prepaid voice customers after losing about that many in the year ago quarter. Our process has been benefited by our ability to transition the Cricket customers to our new high-quality 4G LTE network. Our strong sales efforts and the near completion of the Cricket integration helped drive that turnaround. 97% of Cricket customers are now on our GSM platform as we continue the integration and as we shutdown the CDMA networks. These are premium prepaid customers, almost all are choosing smartphones when they go onto our GSM platform and about two thirds of the gross adds are choosing our highest value plans. Those are plans that have higher ARPU. In fact, those ARPU levels are similar and sometimes better than other carrier’s postpaid ARPU. And we are doing this integration faster and with less churn than we originally anticipated even with our network conversion. We had our lowest ever prepaid churn, thanks to continued progress with Cricket even as we decommission the networks. We also had our second largest connected device net add quarter ever. Our leadership in connected cars drove that growth. Our relationship with eight car manufacturers producing more than half of the new connected cars in the United States is driving this as more and more manufacturers make connectivity a key part of their new car strategies. The company had 7.2 million branded smartphone gross adds and upgrades in the second quarter. We increased our high quality branded smartphone base by about 1.2 million in the quarter. This includes branded upgrades and migrations, which we don't include in our net add number. The smartphone momentum, plus strength in prepaid, led to a positive branded voice net adds in the quarter. Churn continues to be solid. Postpaid churn was down slightly from the first quarter of this year. And for the year, we are still running below last year’s best ever annual postpaid churn record of 1.04%. Total churn was also impressive. It dropped 16 basis points to 1.31% from 1.47% in the year ago quarter, driven in large part by the significant improvements in prepaid. And branded churn was also down year-over-year as we added more than 740,000 branded devices. Now let’s look at our wireline operation. That information is on Slide 8. The repositioning of our wireline base also is working. The challenge here is to maintain margins while transitioning customers to IP services from higher margin legacy services. That’s not a simple task. But the team’s extraordinary efforts to control costs and focus on profitability has helped stabilize or we can expand margins as we made this transition. That was true this quarter even with about $40 million or 30 basis points of additional pressure from spring storms that hit our network and our footprint. We have taken several measures to make this possible. You know of our efforts to exit low margin wholesale businesses causes revenue pressure, but it does improve the future of our business. Our customer service focus has helped to reduce cycle times in provisioning services for customers and added network on demand capabilities with our next generation network investments. These efforts were recently recognized by IDC, which named AT&T a leader in seeking new innovations to improve customer service. Our Project Agile is more of a mindset than just a cost efficiency program. We are not only finding ways to take costs out of our business, but also working to make things simpler to start with for both our customers and us. Our transformation IP technologies continue to drive strong performance in both strategic business services and wireline consumer in the quarter. Adjusted strategic service revenues grew by nearly 14%. And when you adjust for the foreign exchange pressure, growth was even stronger, coming in at more than 16%. At the same time, we see the impact of IP with our data revenues. Total data revenues are nearly 60% of wireline business revenues and more than half of those revenues are from strategic services as we transition customers from legacy data services. This has helped drive total data year-over-year revenue growth for the third consecutive quarter. Adjusted wireline business revenues were down 3.9%. However, if you adjust for the impact of our discontinued wholesale businesses and FX, the decline would have been 1.7%. There was revenue pressure across our wireline business operation, but was most pronounced in wholesale, where we have been focusing on profitable sales even if it meant a reduction in revenue. Small business revenue was down slightly over the first quarter of the year, but we continue to see fiber sales accelerate and we are very excited to hear that AT&T has been named the highest ranked brand in overall business wireline customer satisfaction performance in the J.D. Power small-to-medium business segment for 2015. That’s quite a tribute to the business teams’ efforts in this space. On the consumer side, U-verse services are more than 70% of consumer revenues and adjusted revenues grew about 19% year-over-year. That helped drive our strongest consumer revenue growth in 5 quarters, growing by 3.7% when adjusting for the sale of Connecticut operations. You also see our focus on profitability and repositioning our customer base with U-verse. Video net adds dropped with fewer promotions and are targeting of high value subscribers. We did add about 240,000 IP broadband customers in the quarter as we continue to reposition our DSL base to IP. That work is nearing completion with less than 1 million eligible DSL subscribers left to transition. Now, let’s look at consolidated margins, which are on Slide 9. The strength in wireless and stable wireline margins had a positive impact on consolidated margins. In the second quarter, our adjusted EBITDA grew to $11.1 billion and the adjusted consolidated margin was 33.6% compared to 31.5% last year. That’s more than 200 basis point improvement. Adjusted operating income also is showing continued improvement. It was $6.5 billion, up 12.4% year-over-year. And adjusted operating income margin grew to 19.6%, up more than 190 basis points from the year earlier second quarter. This was largely due to cost focus initiatives, which included Project Agile, our strength in wireless, growth in consumer revenues and gains in strategic business services. The company also benefited from lower trailing expenses from capital spending as Project VIP was completed. And our move to next generation networks is starting to make a real difference as well. Now, let’s move to cash flow, where we had an outstanding quarter. The summary is on Slide 10. Our ability to generate cash continues to be strong. Cash from operations totaled $9.2 billion, that’s nearly four times our dividend commitment and our best cash generation in seven quarters. And we generated $15.9 billion in cash year-to-date. Capital expenditures totaled $4.7 billion and $8.7 billion year-to-date. We still expect standalone capital spending in the $18 billion range this year, but we are now including our expansion efforts in Mexico in that amount. Free cash flow was $4.5 billion and $7.2 billion year-to-date. We are well on our way to hitting our standalone free cash flow guidance we gave you earlier this year. We now expect standalone free cash flow, excluding any impact from DIRECTV in the $12 billion range or better and this includes the operational and capital impacts from our Mexican acquisitions. In terms of uses of cash, dividends totaled $2.4 billion, which gives us a free cash flow to dividend payout ratio of 55% for the quarter and about 67% year-to-date. Our net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio was 2.15, similar to the first quarter. We did issue debt in the second quarter to help finance our acquisition activities. Our long-range goal is to get these levels back to the 1.8 range and expect our cash focus to be on paying down debt in the near-term. The strong financial performance in the first half of the year sets us up well for the transformation and diversification of our business. Now, let me close with a quick summary of the quarter on Slide 11 before we get to your questions. Our transformation plan is working. When you build the great network, develop next generation products and focus on the customer, good things happen. This focus drove strong results in the quarter that’s all growing revenues, expanding margins and double-digit adjusted EPS growth, but just as important was our ability to generate cash from our business, which we did. All this is in line or better than guidance that we gave you earlier this year. These results add to our confidence that we are on track to hit our standalone guidance metrics. Wireless financials were solid as we near completion of our shift to Mobile Share Value plans. Next take rates continue to increase helping drive increasing postpaid phone with Next ARPU. Our prepaid brands are doing great and our expense management helped drive our best ever service margins. Our move into Mexico positions us as the only company who owns and operates a North American mobile service area that will serve more than 400 million people with 4G LTE service. And we expect to reach 350 million people by year end. Owning these network assets not only provides a high level of service quality for our customers, but also gives us owner’s economics advantages. We are also very pleased that in order to approve our DIRECTV transaction with certain conditions, it’s circulating at the SEC. We expect final approval at anytime. We won’t be able to address any of your questions about the deal today during this call, but I can tell you this. First, as far as any conditions that Chairman Wheeler alluded to earlier this week, we feel very confident that we can make an adequate return on any investment we make as part of this deal. Our threshold for investment in determining what’s best for our shareholders has not changed. Second, we still fully expect to achieve $2.5 billion worth of cost synergies from this transaction. That also has not changed. We plan to webcast an Analyst Day from Dallas very soon after the deal closes to discuss our strategy in much more detail. We are more confident than ever about the opportunity this transaction brings. We are building a unique communications and entertainment company, that we believe will not only transform us, but transform our industry as well. And we are very anxious to talk with you about it. With that, Lori, let’s go ahead and take some questions.