TABCF (TABCF) Q4 2026 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Tabcorp Holdings Limited Full Year Results 2026. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today's conference call is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of Tabcorp, Gillon McLachlan. Please go ahead.

Thank you, and good morning, everyone, and welcome to our FY '26 results call. I'm Gillon McLachlan, and I'm joined on the call by our CFO, Mark Howell. I'm going to take the presentation as read, and I'll talk you through the key highlights before handing over to Mark, who will step you through the financials. Refer you first to Slide 2. Ultimately, FY '26 was an important year for us. We continue to execute on the plan we presented 2 years ago, delivering significant strategic milestones. The numbers today reflect the progress we have made. We're steadily building a culture of doing what we say we will do. And for me, that's critically important. We have improved our execution and are delivering an omnichannel racing and sports entertainment experience, which customers are responding to. Products like TAB Time, TAB Shout, TAB Takeover and Mega Pot are the outcome of using our unique assets more effectively. Sky now has the domestic and international rights for every Australian race, creating a strong foundation to grow the B2B media business globally. MAX Integrity Services continue to deliver consistent performance, providing growth and diversity in earnings across our group. This execution has been achieved while maintaining strong cost discipline and improving our balance sheet. In addition, we have delivered out on key strategic initiatives, including the reshaping of the commercial model with our retail network, enabling us to grow and invest in that channel. Since year-end, we've also reached agreement with the racing industry on a National Tote, a significant milestone for Tabcorp and the industry. As we announced earlier this month, the strategic acquisition of BetMakers will modernize our technology and create a global B2B growth engine. Before I get into the detail, I'd like to note the company is subject to an AUSTRAC investigation, which we take very seriously. There is no update from our original disclosure. We are cooperating transparently with the regulator and continuing the compliance uplift, which we commenced in 2024. I'll now refer you to Slide 6 and the first pillar of our game plan. It's all about people, the right people in the right slots. We continue to grow capability and build a culture of strong execution. As part of the uplift, we appointed key senior leaders in financial crime, wagering, retail, marketing, MAX, strategy and cybersecurity. We've increased cultural accountability, 360-degree views of all executives and senior leaders including talent roundtables. We're also investing in the next generation of leaders. In FY '26, we launched TABW, a program focused on developing and investing in emerging female leaders, and TAB Kick Off, bringing our 150 top leaders together at the start of each calendar and financial year to align on the strategic priorities. We will continue to focus on growing capability and culture as the foundation of our future success. I'd like to now refer to Slide 7 and 9 and our second pillar, growth for the industry and ourselves. The creation of a National Tote is a significant milestone for the industry. I want to acknowledge the principal racing authorities in each state who worked collaboratively to make this reality. The industry has tried and failed many times to create a National Tote, and this group has achieved it. I'm pleased to share the National Tote will launch early in the Spring Carnival. A merged pool increases liquidity for punters and creates greater price stability. The next step will be product innovation. We're focused on creating more jackpot-style bet types and products exclusive to tote, and there will be new opportunities for global pooling. We'll refresh the look and feel of Sky with greater focus on tote promotions. I'll now refer to Slide 10. Delivering unrivaled omnichannel experience is our greatest strength and differentiator. As I mentioned, we continue to innovate with new products and a better look and feel to create a genuine racing and sports entertainment offering. We told you at our half-year results about the success of TAB Time, TAB Shout, TAB Takeover and exclusive in-venue generosities. Today, we can add the FIFA World Cup to that list. We achieved record turnover and revenue. Retail turnover for the event increased 57% compared to the last World Cup, and digital turnover grew by 53% compared to the last World Cup. I'm particularly pleased with the increase in our broader retail turnover. More people are coming to pubs and clubs on the back of investment in the channel. Digital in-venue turnover for FY '26 grew by 9% and by 25% for sport. We continue to broaden our appeal with digital in-venue turnover to the 34-year-old cohort increasing by 23%. This reflects our brand refresh and improved look and feel of our offering. I'd like to take you now to Slide 11 on the new retail commercial model. Our fourth pillar is about delivering wagering growth underpinned by a sustainable retail channel. Creating structural sustainability in our retail model has allowed us to invest more in uplifting the retail experience. Support from pubs and clubs has been strong. More than 3,300 venues are operating in our network, representing 97% of historical turnover. Our new commercial model allows us to invest for mutual benefit. The improved product offering and week-long generosity calendar is delivering results, and we're looking to build on that growth in FY '27. Now taking you to Slide 13 and our investment in modernized betting terminals. We've commenced replacing every existing EBT with new next-gen terminals. The terminals will deliver both compliance and commercial benefits. Technology is a key enabler for our continued uplift in regulatory compliance, and the new terminals provide us options for further automation and operate a safe and compliant network. Commercially, we expect the benefits from the new model will generate returns on investment of at least 25%. This includes terminal spend in FY '27 and FY '28, along with the Phase 1 benefits included in our FY '26 results that Mark will talk to shortly. The changes we have delivered in retail this year are significant, and I want to acknowledge the work of our people as well as the ongoing support of our venue partners in positioning the venue network for a strong and sustainable future. On to Slide 15 and our Media business. Sky's recent domestic and international rights renewals underpin our ability to grow our global B2B distribution business. A key focus in the year ahead will be using our rights acquisitions to expand this part of our business, which will be complemented by the proposed acquisition of BetMakers. On screen, Sky is now a fully integrated part of our wagering experience, including QR code integration and viewers to scan and receive prefilled TAB bet slips based on our presenters' tips. This is another step in creating a complete omnichannel experience. The look and feel is continuing to evolve, and you'll see further changes as we launch the National Tote. Slide 16 summarizes our agreement to acquire BetMakers. The acquisition represents a unique opportunity to accelerate our transformation to a modernized technology-led company and establish a global B2B growth engine. We believe with BetMakers, we can create new products faster and more cheaply, uplift capability in our workforce and benefit from complementary assets to grow scale and diversify internationally. The transaction will require various approvals, including by BetMakers shareholders. Completion is targeted during the third quarter of FY '27. I'll now hand over to Mark to talk you through the detailed financial results.

Thanks, Gil, and good morning, everyone. We have delivered what we think is a pleasing set of results. We've responded to the modest growth turnover environment with continued focus on cost control while delivering a number of important strategic initiatives that have sustainably improved our earnings, both in FY '26 and into the future. Before I run you through the results in detail, there are 4 key aspects I want to call out. First, the initial Phase 1 benefits of the new retail commercial model were delivered in line with expectations with a positive EBITDA impact of $22 million realized in FY '26. This was partly offset by below-average yield in the first half that we called out in February. Second, the benefit of the reformed Victorian wagering license applied for the full 12 months of the financial year versus only 10.5 months in the PCP. We estimate this delivered an incremental $12 million of EBITDA in FY '26. Third, we continue to focus on cost discipline across the business. OpEx adjusting for the Victorian license decreased by 80 basis points, a strong result in a high inflationary environment. This allowed us to deliver operating leverage and a 140-basis-point improvement in the EBITDA margin to 16.4%. And finally, we continue to focus on efficient investment of capital to support our strategy, recorded another year of improved return on capital, up to 12%, a 240-basis-point improvement on the prior year. In addition, we reduced leverage to 1.2x and improved the diversity and tenor of our debt facilities, including a new AMTN and the extension of our syndicated debt facility. This provides us with significant flexibility to support our strategic investment going forward, including the rollout of modernized betting terminals over the next couple of years and the strategic acquisition of BetMakers. So now moving on to the result. Slide 17 sets out the FY '26 group financial results. Group revenue grew by 0.8% to $2.64 billion. Variable contribution increased 4%, while OpEx was largely flat, delivering strong operating leverage with 10.3% growth in EBITDA to $432 million and 15.9% growth in EBIT to $219 million. Net interest expense decreased by 5.8%, reflecting the reduction in net debt. This, in turn, delivered 44% growth in NPAT before significant items to $71.1 million. A final dividend of $0.015 per share has been declared, bringing the total FY '26 dividend to $0.03 per share, a 50% increase on the PCP. This represents a 58% payout ratio for the year towards the midpoint of our 50% to 70% payout policy. You'll also note that on this slide, we have provided an NPATA view of the result. This is in response to investor feedback and adjusts for certain noncash items that are an ongoing part of our P&L, focused particularly on the amortization of wagering and monitoring licenses in our portfolio. For the remainder of the presentation, I'll focus on 3 areas: the drivers of EBITDA growth, cost control to deliver operating leverage and the strengthened balance sheet. Turning to Slide 19. You can see the key drivers of the 10% EBITDA growth delivered in FY '26. The reformed Victorian wagering license contributed for a full 12 months and added $22 million of variable contribution and $12 million of EBITDA. We also benefited from Phase 1 of the new retail commercial model that contributed $22 million, which was partly offset by the impact of below-average wagering yields in the first half. Integrity Services VC increased by $6 million as a result of the annual CPI fee increases and additional project work through the year. Underlying costs improved by $6 million, which I'll turn to now. Slide 20 demonstrates the focus on costs we have had over the last 2 years with FY '26 OpEx benefiting from the annualization of actions taken in FY '25 as well as the continuation of cost discipline on discretionary items. General inflation remained an ongoing headwind, particularly in relation to technology costs. However, we more than offset this with $18 million of cost reductions and a further $9.3 million of more tactical items. This outcome was achieved whilst continuing to invest in the business, including advertising and promotion spend of around $5 million in relation to the FIFA World Cup. Slide 21 demonstrates the continued focus on disciplined investment and returns. CapEx increased by 22% in FY '26, which was driven by investment in the new EBTs, which we have now commenced rolling out. We expect this investment to continue through the next 2 years and generate attractive returns for the business. In FY '27, we expect to spend around $65 million on the new EBTs, which explains a further step-up in our expected CapEx spend in FY '27 of up to $160 million. Importantly, our ROIC continues to improve and was 12% at the end of FY '26, up from 9.6% in FY '25. Turning to Slide 22 and cash flow. Underlying cash conversion was strong at 98% and in line with our expectation provided at the half, where we flagged full-year cash conversion of between 90% and 100%. This has helped us further reduce leverage across the year. On to Slide 23. We have made significant progress improving our balance sheet in FY '26. In November '25, we issued a $300 million under a new AMTN program at a fixed coupon of 5.9% and a tenure of 5.5 years. In addition, in June '26, we extended both tranches of our syndicated debt facility by around 2 years. These initiatives diversified our funding sources, increased liquidity and extended the average maturity of drawn debt to 4.9 years. Leverage at the end of FY '26 stood at 1.2x and liquidity stood at $1.2 billion, providing us with significant flexibility and funding capacity to pursue growth opportunities. As promised on the BetMakers announcement call a couple of weeks ago, we have rolled forward the leverage calculation to June '26, and our updated pro forma leverage is 1.6x for the transaction. I'll now hand you back to Gil for some closing remarks.

Thanks, Mark. I believe the company made significant progress over the past 12 months. Earnings have increased, and we continue to exercise cost and capital discipline. Our balance sheet is in great shape and our strategic agenda is clear. We remain relentless in executing the plan. Looking ahead, we expect the wagering turnover environment in FY '27 to be similar to FY '26. We will continue to be vigilant on costs in a high inflation environment. Capital expense will increase in FY '27 as we hit the peak of our investment in the new EBTs to enhance retail growth and compliance, and we should see further benefits from that investment in our numbers in FY '27. I'm pleased with the progress we've made. We are delivering on the plan I presented to you 2 years ago. I'm happy to take your questions.

[Operator Instructions] First question comes from the line of Andre Fromyhr from UBS.

Just first question just about the changes in the retail commercial model. I think during the presentation, you called out a $22 million EBITDA benefit during the year just gone. But I'm wondering if you could help us understand how to think about the benefits derived from the Phase 2 rollout? Is this something where we should expect a further step change in, say, VC profitability? Or is it something that depends more on behavioral change with the punters or with how the venues manage the TABs?

I'll hand over to Mark on that one, Andre, other than to say it's a holistic view, there is structural change, but there's a broader impact on wagering and there will be -- we're telegraphing a net impact.

Yes. So just to sort of walk you through the numbers, Andre, there is an EBITDA benefit we're expecting in FY '27. We've sort of said that CapEx on the terminals is around $140 million, which we spent some in FY '26 and we'll spend some in FY '27 and FY '28, which we've called out. 25% return on that $140 million will give you an EBIT number to work with. We've called out that the D&A on the terminals is around $13 million. So that -- you can gross that up to get to an EBITDA number. And then we've said of that EBITDA number, $22 million has already been realized in FY '26. So that is a -- as Gil said, that is a net number because there's obviously been other things removed from the commercial model, including things like EBT rental fees. And then there's also investment in the loyalty program as well. So...

So it contemplates the reinvestment link in the network as well as the netting out of addition of historical revenues and ins and outs.

Yes. So it will impact the VC line, it will also impact OpEx as well, Andre, to answer your sort of original question.

Yes. Great. That's really helpful. And I just had one other follow-up on the comments around the domestic wagering revenue outlook comments. You're saying similar growth to what we saw in FY '26, but excluding the effects of FIFA World Cup. And I'm just wondering if you could help us size up how big was the FIFA World Cup benefit in FY '26? And is that likely to be greater or smaller in terms of the remaining impact that falls early FY '27?

Yes. I mean, look, Andre, I'd say there's a few moving pieces. The first thing I'd say is there are events every year, right? So I mean, obviously, the FIFA World Cup is a big one. But equally, in FY '26, there were some other -- FY '25, there were some other events as well. And also turnover does come out of other places and pockets. But to sort of answer your question, about half the tournament was in FY '26 and half will fall into FY '27. And our estimate is about 30 to 50 basis points of the turnover growth that we saw relates to the World Cup in FY '26. So I think what we're trying to say on an underlying basis, turnover growth is still relatively modest.

Next, we have Matt Ryan from Barrenjoey.

Just thinking about the National Tote, interested in what work is still yet to be done to get the product active? And I guess, how we should think about the launch in regards to promotion of the liquidity benefits, obviously, and what that might do to your international business?

Yes. Thanks, Matt. I think we were clear with the market, there was 4 big pieces to get done, which is obviously the technology piece, PRA approval, an aligned commercial model and regulatory approval. I would say that everything is done, except I think we -- I think it's sort of implied that the New South Wales approval was the last PRA approval, and that was a protracted discussion where we were very pleased with the outcome, and we're pleased with the support of Racing New South Wales. And ultimately, without -- there is a period of reg approval that will apply in New South Wales that goes to that approval. I think everything else is in hand and done. And we don't expect any problems with that. It's just the normal course of time on that approval. Then to the second part of your question in terms of promotion, we're sort of keeping our powder dry in terms of the exact date, but you can expect a significant marketing campaign, a specific launch date, which has been decided on. We have a new brand. We have a campaign, which will focus on what we see as the advantages of a National Tote, which is clearly, greater liquidity. Clearly, the opportunity to have jackpot-style products, a simplicity in the way it's presented, a focus on its link to internationals, hopefully, over time, link to sport and turning a light on something which has obviously been a drag on our business for some time, and this is an opportunity to refresh and present the actual advantages of the tote, which I don't think we've had the opportunity to do. And we'll talk about that in various forms, as I said, across the price competitiveness that hopefully comes with the liquidity, the opportunity for deeper pools through international commingling, jackpot and other product types that are unique and just start talking to a wider market about the tote generally. So I just don't want to go into the -- just particularly about the specifics of that promotion because that will start playing out over the coming weeks, and we have a designated launch date that we want to make some bit of noise about.

That's helpful. And I was just hoping for some comments on the detail behind wagering. I think historically, Tabcorp has been a little bit underweight sport maybe relative to some competitors. So maybe just share some color on some of the success that you've had there because the numbers appear to be pretty good again. And then just within racing, just interested in how much of a drag that greyhounds have been over the last little while. And if you could just shed any color on the strength of thoroughbreds against that?

I might kick it off and with some -- maybe Mark might add detail that I missed or he thinks is relevant. Broadly speaking on the wagering, just to finish the discussion on National Tote, 1/3 of our business is roughly pari-mutuel, and that's been in decline by 5% or 6% year-on-year and FY '26 was no different. So clearly, then the strategic imperative around the National Tote and the opportunities is -- you give that context through the numbers. Then with the business overall with that context, sport grew at about 8%, racing fixed odds was positive in that mindset, and you can backfill on the numbers on that. I think we feel the market is -- there is modest growth. We're investing then specifically on your sport. We look forward to OpenBet to deliver differentiated product on our digital platform with the arrival of OpenBet in the coming months. We focus on presenting energetically. The NFL as an example, will be big for us. We are the sponsor of the NFL game here in Melbourne. We've got other targeted sports that we're leaning into. And live betting when it launches, I'm sure there'll be a question that some there may well be, will be a key differentiator in our ability to continue to grow our sports portfolio.

Next, we have Liam Robertson from Jarden.

Just 2 questions from me. Firstly, on the new retail commercial model. So I think what I'm hearing, you've called out $22 million of incremental EBITDA in FY '26, can then sort of do the math on your inferred ROIC. It looks like at full run rate, it's more like $46 million to $48 million of EBITDA. So 2 questions on that. I guess, on the additional $24 million to $26 million, how much of that do you think you can deliver in FY '27? That's just the first part of my question.

I won't comment on. You can -- I'm not going to call on accounts to say they're right or wrong. We're working -- because there's reinvestment and we're putting a lot back into the retail network, Liam. But all of it, whatever your numbers are, will be realized in FY '27.

Okay. Perfect. That's very clear. And then just in terms of, I mean I appreciate you calling out incremental EBITDA. It sounds like that's after factoring the loss of EBT rental fee income under the old model. Just for the avoidance of doubt, are you also factoring a loss of turnover from venues that didn't take up the new commercial model?

Yes, we are. But that's -- it's a net number, clearly. So that would factor in loss of that. And we've called out that we've retained 97% of the turnover. And we had a bright start to FY '27. So I would be -- I wouldn't factor in too much downside on that. And we've had a good result in retention. But it's more putting the other part about the loss of EBT rental income and others, but it's more the net would include reinvestment in the network, loyalty programs, things we are doing in the retail network as we are more active, as we beyond the structural economics of the change agreements, we try and increase traffic, participation in the retail network and ultimately, turnover as we try and drive the omnichannel wagering business. And so we will be reinvesting part of that in that model with our venue partners.

Okay. That's very clear. And then just last one, maybe just following on from some of the questions from Matt around National Tote. I guess, simplistically, in time, do you think you can get racing turnover back to growth by the new National Tote?

Well, that's certainly the ambition. I mean there is a clear plan. And the steps and the pieces to that, I've talked to, and I won't reprosecute that. But we believe that the international linkages promoting the unique aspect to us, the price competitiveness with a well-executed product generosity plan, promotional plan changes the dynamic for us. And ultimately, then it becomes -- to answer your question, that's the ambition. Proof will be in the pudding, and we have to execute well. But when it's 1/3 of our business, and we've been in sort of 6% decline, every percentage point of decline that we arrest obviously, is important for us. And we're just -- we're leaning in aggressively in how we do that. And the opportunity is there, and I think it's up for us to execute on it.

I think just to build on that, it won't happen immediately. Obviously, it will take time. And as we launch more features and products with National Tote. But as Gil explained, that's our ambition over time.

Next, we have Justin Barratt from CLSA.

Gil, I know you made comments on this before, but I just wanted to sort of follow up again. The government's proposed gambling advertising reforms have now been legislated. It looks like they're going to commence from the 1st of January. I just wanted to get your thoughts on the impacts of that front on the broader industry, how you think it affects Tabcorp relative to those broader industry impacts? And I guess, confirm that, that has been considered in your commentary on your outlook comments for FY '27?

Yes, Justin, thank you. So I think there's 2 parts is an absolute and a relative impact. I think in an absolute sense, they are a sensible set of reforms. I think that the -- that our outlook factors that in. I think that there is the reforms target areas where they should, which is those with vulnerabilities and ultimately allows business to still promote sensibly and the industry to grow. In a relative sense, I believe we're very well positioned. I've talked to it before, clearly, with 3,500 retail outlets with Sky Media with a set of assets that are clear and established both in racing and in sport. And to be more tactical, we are not impacted by some of the -- we agree with a lot of -- the majority of the recommendations and in part are already there. As an example, we don't pay commissions to our VIP account managers. So I feel there are a set of recommendations that are contemplated in our outlook. And in a relative sense, I think that we are very well positioned.

Yes. Fantastic. And then, Gil, on the new commercial model, you're saying that 97% of the network by turnover is now operational. Just wanted to confirm, I guess, that, that includes all the largest of your partners in that retail network, one in particular, sort of expressed some concerns, I guess, about that new model?

Yes. I don't know how you want to talk about it. Yes, it does. I think the language is particularly precise, Justin, just to be clear, and I'm going to call it out with ALH, we have reached commercial agreement with them, but we have 3 or 4 issues to resolve in the long-form agreement, and that's why we were, I guess, precise in our language to do that. Broadly, every -- all the big groups are on board with some technicality and the exact status of the contracting, that's all I'm talking to.

Next, we have David Fabris from Macquarie.

Just to go back to the commercial or the retail commercial model benefits. I guess if I look at that VC margin, it looks to improve by about 1.5 percentage points sequentially. So if we're thinking about FY '27, is it safe to kind of use that second half margin as a guide? Or how should we think about the VC margin into FY '27 for the wagering business, please?

I think -- thanks, David, it's Mark. I think obviously, there will be some improvement in VC margin as a result of the commercial model. I won't give you a number, but I'm giving you a sort of an outline of how to think about the incremental impact. As I said, there will be some OpEx investment, but that is net of the number that I talked to earlier. But yes, we -- the margin should continue to step up into FY '27.

Got you. But to be clear, that's off the second half FY '27 VC margin, not the FY '26 average?

Yes. That's correct.

Perfect. Excellent. And then look, just on the cost, I really appreciate the guidance there for the 3% to 3.5% growth. Can you give any indication of the growth if you exclude the regulatory and risk uplift programs? I guess I'm trying to split that out and think about whether or not some of those costs can come back out of the business in time or how we should think about it?

Look, to give you a sort of response, we called out, as you noted, 3% to 3.5% growth in OpEx into FY '27 off the FY '26 base. We've called out investment in risk and regulatory uplift programs. And then I've talked to the investment in the loyalty program associated with the new retail commercial model. I think it's fair to say about half of that growth in OpEx is relating to those 2 items and the other half relates to just general cost inflation.

Got you. So I guess if we think about lapping...

Yes, we're not assuming at this stage, David, to answer your question that we're going to be taking cost out of that.

I think, David, this is Gil. I just -- I'd be sanguine about removing the compliance costs after a period. We are committed to our uplift plan and our safety and compliance. And no decision will be made, I think that it will be an ongoing investment.

Got you. Got you. That's fair. And then just -- sorry, one last question for me. Obviously, the BetMakers transaction is hopefully going to complete in 3Q FY '27. But how do you think about your CapEx on app development and the tech stack whilst you wait for that transaction to complete? Does anything change on that course?

Look, I think, David, what I'd say is that all of that we will need to take into consideration as we get closer. Obviously, we're going to continue our investment in the app until we've got a greater level of certainty around completion. But needless to say that obviously, we think forward in terms of what that potential acquisition can do for the business and invest in a measured way around that.

Next, we have Sam Bradshaw from Evans & Partners.

Just wondering what your feedback so far has been from some of your BetMakers customers here in Australia.

Thanks, Sam. In terms of the larger customers, and I think it applies across the board, but I've spoken directly with the larger operators to assure them that they will get a very professional service from us and that we have ultimately had -- we've had some experience now of being a wholesaler to the market and the service they've got in that in terms of, say, the wholesaling, the B2B of Sky Vision is the service they would expect in any of the services that in our wholesale business and that we would have strong disciplines around the way they received whatever products and services they're getting and that we can do that in a way that is they should feel completely comfortable. And I think people have appreciated the calls. I'd say that to anyone, and we continue to reach out to all our prospective additional B2B partners to say that we have been a wholesaler for some time, and they should feel comfortable with our aspiration to continue to grow that and the way we go about it.

I see no further questions at this time. I will now pass back to Gil for closing remarks.

Thank you. Thank you all for your participation. I sort of finish where I started. We have a clear plan. We are working very hard to regain the trust of the market. We think we're doing what we say. We are pleased with our numbers as they start to play through. We know we've got lots of work to do, and we'll continue to focus on our capability and our culture. That means that we execute better and better every day, deliver for our customers and for ultimately our owners, and we thank you for your ongoing support.

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.