Earnings Labs

Talos Energy Inc. (TALO)

Q3 2013 Earnings Call· Tue, Nov 5, 2013

$15.54

+0.19%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning and my name is Stephanie and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Stone Energy Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers’ remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Chairman and CEO, David Welch; you may begin your conference.

David Welch

Management

Thank you very much, Stephanie. And welcome everyone to our third quarter call; joining us this morning is Ken Beer, who is our Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer. Ken is going to discuss the quarterly financial results and then I’ll give you an update on the progress of our strategic plan. So with this, we’ll follow this with your questions. And now, I will turn over to Ken.

Ken Beer

Management

Thank you, Dave. And let me start with the forward-looking statements. In this conference call, we may make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. These forward-looking statements are subject to all of the risks and uncertainties normally incident to the exploration for and the development, production and sales of oil and natural gas. We urge you to read our 2012 annual report on Form 10-K and our most recent 10-Q, which have a discussion of the risks that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those that any forward-looking statements we may make today. In addition, in this call, we may refer to financial measures that may be deemed non-GAAP financial measures, as defined under the Exchange Act. Please refer to the press release we issued yesterday, which is posted on our website for a reconciliation of the differences between the financial measures and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures. And with that rather than go through the third quarter results in detail, we will assume that people have seen the release and the attached financials, and we will just focus on some selective financial items. Our discretionary cash flow for the quarter was $166 million or around $3.30 per share, which was above the analyst first call cash flow estimates of just over $3 per share, and the earnings for the quarter was $36 million or about $0.72 per share. Production for the quarter came in at just under 50,000 Boe per day or just under 300 million cubic feet equivalents per day, which was above the upper end of the recently updated guidance for production. Once again, our Marcellus volumes were strong contributor as we experienced minimal pipeline downtime during the quarter, and…

David Welch

Management

Okay, thank you very much, Ken. All of our businesses performed very well this quarter and we continue to deliver important strategic milestones for the future. We delivered our production at near record levels approaching 50,000 barrels of equivalent per day, slightly above the upper end of our third quarter guidance. This is due to good weather and great work by our asset teams. We also expect to perform comfortably inside of our recently increased full year guidance even though as Ken mentioned, we expect the fourth quarter to decline a bit due to some onshore property sales as well as downtime in October comprising a storm evacuation in the gulf and temporary third party issues in both the gulf and Appalachia. Also our reserves were stable and we are expecting to grow them again for the year. At the end of last year our proved reserves were almost balanced with approximately 49% liquids and 51% natural gas. We do not expect any major deviation from this balance in our reserves report at the end of this year. In the third quarter we generated significant discretionary cash flow of a $166 million which funded our $162 million of capital expenditures in the third quarter. The balance sheet remains strong as we ended the quarter with over $240 million in cash and a bank revolver which remains undrawn at $400 million. Our first long-term debt obligation is not due until ’17. Our strategy remains the same as the last seven years; pursue investment and price advantage natural gas and material oil prospects. We continue to exploit our legacy conventional shelf assets as we develop our three growth areas Appalachia, Deep Water Gulf and the Deep Gulf Coast gas. In addition we are in the midst of a market test to potentially…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions). And your first question comes from the line of Michael Glick of Johnson Rice. Your line is now open. Michael Glick - Johnson Rice & Co.: Good morning. Just a question on Amethyst, I know you guys have been marketing a portion of your interest in the well, I’m just curious if you could provide kind of an update on that front?

David Welch

Management

Well, sure. Sometimes you just have to put a stake in the ground and that’s what we’ve done here with the rig commitment and the rig moving to location. Michael, it’s not our general strategy to drill exploration well at a 100% and we are still talking to some people and if we get an acceptable deal we would certainly lay off a portion of that well. Ken, anything you want to add?

Ken Beer

Management

I’d say we’re moving forward I mean just gotten the rig and we’re moving forward and we will continue to talk with folks but we’re drilling away and we’ll see the results hopefully early in the first quarter. Michael Glick - Johnson Rice & Co.: Okay, and then because of your ownership of the Pompano platform, where on that reserve distribution do you think you need to be to justify development at Amethyst?

David Welch

Management

It’s pretty low I think anywhere on the distribution would be a development Michael given the fact that it’s only 5 miles from Pompano and that we own the platform a 100%. So we wouldn’t have any PHA fees or anything it’d just be incremental operated which would be very low. And even if the low end of the profile there you’re still talking about $16 a barrel for finding cost. So it would be highly economic anywhere on that distribution. Michael Glick - Johnson Rice & Co.: Okay, and then if you get success do you think you move on to Derbio next year?

David Welch

Management

We will certainly be working hard to get Derbio on the schedule if Amethyst works. The chance of success of Derbio go significantly higher if Amethyst prove successful and I can just tell you that Amethyst is one of the prospects in our portfolio that’s a higher than normal [indiscernible] higher chance of probability of commercial success. Michael Glick - Johnson Rice & Co.: Could you maybe provide a little bit more color on why that is like why you view it as a lower risk prospect?

David Welch

Management

Yes, it’s a little bit lower risk because of two things; one, we have a down dip well called Super Tramp (Ph) that was drilled by BP in the 90s, that well had some shales in it and we have a newer vantage of seismic that has an ABO response and amplitude versus offset response that indicates that we can get up depth and see better sand quality by moving to the northeast. So that’s why it’s a little bit higher the fact that we had oil shales down dip and we have seismic amplitude response in addition to that. Those two things make it a little bit lower risk than typical exploration well. The other thing I can tell you just as a point of reference is this is the well BP was planning to move to drill after the Macondo well was a discovery. And unfortunately we all know that rig sank and they never drilled that well.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Jeb Bachmann of Howard Weil. Your line is now open.

Jeb Bachmann - Howard Weil

Analyst

Just had a few questions first on the Marcellus, you talked about that you are looking to improve there as you continue to establish a history with your well production. Just wondering if you can give us an idea I think you’re at 5.1 ex-ethane earlier this year if you can give us an idea kind of what you think that could go to at the end of this year?

David Welch

Management

All I can say for sure and I don’t know where it’ll go to at the end of this year specifically longer term other operators that are in the area are in the neighborhood of 6 Bcf a well and that includes a couple of other offset operators that are not too far remove from where our area is located, so if that’s any help to you that’s all the facts I really know, we won’t know as you know I am sure we do not do our own reserves those are completely engineered at Netherland and Seoul and so until they get enough production history to be confident that there is going to be a higher ultimate recovery our EURs may or may not change that much in the short term. But long term that’s what other operators are seeing and I don’t see any reason why our acreage should be a lot different from what others are experiencing.

Jeb Bachmann - Howard Weil

Analyst

And David on those lines in the cost per well you’re saying you’re starting to see those come down or see efficiencies up there, any comments on what those are looking like these days.

David Welch

Management

Sure I'll think we drill, a typical lateral is in the 5600 foot range and typical wells in the $6.3 million or $6.5 million, to drill and complete fracture.

Jeb Bachmann - Howard Weil

Analyst

Sorry, and then looking at the Devonian well and knowing it's one a five well pad, with four other Marcellus wells, can you tell us the location of that Devonian pass? Is that between these Marcellus rolls to try and figure out this communication or there will be communication between the wells.

David Welch

Management

Well, it's still very early days and it is in between some of those wells and as you know it’s a short lateral compared to the longer Marcellus laterals, what we’re really just trying to do is determine several things; one is that gas that's going to be condensate rich; two is it interfering or not being interfered with by the Marcellus production; and three there are several operators have started to talk about the fracking in the Devonian because it’s pretty close in terms of vertical separation to the Marcellus, several operators have started to talk about it actually stimulating the production that they're getting from the Marcellus. So we don't really know anything yet until we get it online with these pads and with the full pad, but I do expect that we’ll get that started later this quarter and watch it for few months and be able to start drawing some conclusions, you know there are two ways to win, one is that it's separate from the Marcellus, the second way is that it actually stimulates Marcellus production which I've heard that out in the industry as a possibility as well.

Jeb Bachmann - Howard Weil

Analyst

Okay, great then moving down to the Gulf looking off shore just curious on the wells that are planned for 2014, do you have all the permits in hand necessary for those wells at this point.

David Welch

Management

We have the essential permits that are needed for the company operator ones we certainly do, there's a exploration permit which is the big permit, we have that for all of them and then you have an actual permit to drill which you typically get when your rig is ready to go to location within 30 days and that's I won't say that's a rubber stamp but if you crossed all the Ts and dotted all the Is in what you're doing those are generally forthcoming very quickly so we don’t have any permitting concerns Jeb.

Jeb Bachmann - Howard Weil

Analyst

David Welch

Management

There is at least one more structure on our blocks that we’ve identified and have pointed out to Exxon, and Exxon liked the Mica Deep prospect obviously for them to go from not even knowing about the prospect to drilling it within a year is a pretty good indication of their enthusiasm for the project and since we've all gotten enthusiastic about it there's actually even been a discovery made at the south that improves the project chances even more so. So we're really excited about Mica Deep and we’re very excited that we actually have a lever on that one where Exxon's going to pay 65% for 50% interest. So they like the prospect and we like it and there are a few other things in the area that could be add-ons to Mica Deep, if it should work.

Jeb Bachmann - Howard Weil

Analyst

And two quick ones if I may, one Thunder Bayou, any update on the ownership percentage there, I think PQ this morning had said that that had been worked out in terms of who's going to be participating, I'm just curious if you guys had a final thought.

David Welch

Management

All I can tell you is that we're not participating in it; we determined that it didn’t compete for capital in our portfolio successfully so we're not participating in that one.

Jeb Bachmann - Howard Weil

Analyst

Okay and then last one from me Pumpkin Ridge, would that be near Lyneham (Ph) Creek.

David Welch

Management

About 10 miles away.

Jeb Bachmann - Howard Weil

Analyst

Okay and so the shallower objectives will be similar targets to what they supposedly found in the shallow sections of that well.

David Welch

Management

Exactly.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions). Your next question comes from Kurt Friedman (Ph) of Simmons and Company; your line is now open.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Thinking of the capital allocation first I know you all took a couple diversions from the conventional goals and then in this release you've announced $4 million to $6 million, [indiscernible] I am kind of curious how you think about reallocating that capital, should we expect to see you guys hold on to that capital until you [indiscernible] or could we potentially see you reinvest that capital onshore somewhere.

Ken Beer

Management

Effectively we still kind of have a CapEx budget that we're working under, again I do not think you'll see us taking those dollars and going outside of that number, so the capital breakdown which has clearly shifted more and more towards the deep water, I think in the fourth quarter particularly you will see that and as you look out to 2014, I think we’ve been pretty open and pretty public suggesting that the deep water will continue to garner the line share of any capital expenditure growth.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay great and then kind of shifting gears here. Do you have an estimate for current production is?

Ken Beer

Management

I guess we can at least suggest that production in November is trending back up to a level where we think that the fourth quarter guidance that we provided which is the 42,500 to 45,500 barrels equivalent. We feel like we’ll be able to hit that guidance and really with October behind us we would expect to show good production gains in November and December. The only caveat that they’ve alluded to is that you do have the potential for some reduced volumes up in Appalachia that we have baked into our numbers and that’s really just due to the physics behind the pipes getting colder, having the liquids dropout of the gas stream and therefore you have just less volume that can run through these pipelines. So we will put that in our guidance number if we are able to get through November and December with minimal restrictions and that certainly puts us at or above upper end of that guidance range.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay great that’s helpful and kind of thinking longer term story here. I am curious to hear your perspective on how and I know it’s pretty far out there, but how discretionary cash flow could potentially change year-over-year 15 over 14 as is to relatively low risk Cardona development wells get tied in, I mean, could we perhaps see a pretty dramatic increase year-over-year counter years out from now, if those wells are tied in as planned?

David Welch

Management

Yes, let me say a couple of words and I will turn it over to Ken. We are selling out some properties; we’re potentially selling out some properties from the shelf this year. If so and if Cardona works as we think it will then our production will bounce back and grow above where we were this year in 2015. So that should have a positive impact on cash flow and Ken you may have some specifics you could add?

Ken Beer

Management

Yes, again one of the things that we are looking at are with the two Cardona wells as well as ultimately the platform drilling that we’ll do off of Amberjack and Pompano kind of gives us a real portfolio, more conservative portfolio in the deep water. One of the positive things here as you starting to see production that will generate cash flow in ’15 and ’16. Having said that we’ll also continue to have a pretty robust capital program, so we will have to look at ’15 and ’16 when we get there. But certainly in ’14 what we look to have a capital program relative to our production and cash flow which will be a bit higher, we have been very public about that with the thought that as we get into ’15 and ’16 and ’17 and allow the volumes that we would see from the Cardona wells as well as hopefully Amethyst in ’16 and they have two platform raised at Amberjack and Pompano impacting that ’15 and ’16 time period as well. So a lot of that is going to be very dependent upon both the timing and success of some of the wells that we’re looking to drill from the platform as well as Amethyst and certainly Cardona.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay grate that’s helpful. Thanks guys.

Operator

Operator

And there are no further questions at this time. I will turn it back over to the presenter.

David Welch

Management

Okay, thank you very, Stephanie and thanks everyone for joining us on the call and we look forward to talking to you next time, so long.

Kenneth Beer

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

This does conclude today’s conference call. You may now disconnect.