Earnings Labs

Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP)

Q4 2008 Earnings Call· Tue, Feb 10, 2009

$42.40

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to the Molson Coors Brewing Company 2008 fourth quarter earnings conference call. Before we get started, I want to paraphrase the company’s Safe Harbor language. Some of the discussion today may include forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from what the company projects today so please refer to its most recent 10K, 10Q and proxy filings for a more complete description for factors that could affect these projections. The company does not undertake to publically update forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Regarding any non-US GAAP measures that may be discussed during the call, please visit the company’s website www.MolsonCoors.com for a reconciliation of these measures to the nearest US GAAP results. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. Later, we will conduct a question and answer session and instructions will be given at that time. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host for today’s conference Mr. Peter Swinburn, President and Chief Executive Officer of Molson Coors Brewing.

Peter Swinburn

Management

With me on the call are Stewart Glendinning, Molson Coors’ CFO, Leo Kiely, CEO of Miller Coors, Gavin Hattersley, CFO of Miller Coors, Kevin Boyce, CEO of Molson Canada, Mark Hunter, CEO of Coors Brewers Limited, Dave Perkins, President of Global Brand and Market Development, Sam Walker, Molson Coors’ Chief Legal Officer, Bill Waters, Molson Coors’ Controller and Dave Dunnewald, Molson Coors’ Vice President of Investor Relations. On the call today Stewart and I will take you through some highlights of our fourth quarter 2008 results for Molson Coors Brewing Company along with some initial perspective on 2009. As usual, we will include a review of financial results for MillerCoors and then we’ll open it up for questions. So, our fourth quarter financial results reflect the combined challenges of a much stronger US dollar versus a year ago, substantial commodity inflation and volume softness in our major markets. Foreign currency movements alone accounted for more than 55% of the year-over-year decline in fourth quarter pre-tax profit. Input inflation across all of our businesses added another $41 million of headwinds in the quarter and beer volume declined from a year ago due to softening industry conditions in each of our major markets. While this was a difficult quarter, we continued to make operational progress across our company. In Canada we grew net pricing based on the strength of our strategic brand portfolio despite continued competitive price discounting in Quebec. In the UK we also grew net pricing for the eighth consecutive quarter and began to see significant benefits from the launch of Magners draught cider and our new contract brewing arrangement. MillerCoors in the US made great progress with its integration including reporting 22% growth in underlying earnings for the first two quarters of combined financial results versus the pro forma…

Stewart Glendinning

Management

I’ll start with the fourth quarter financial highlights. Worldwide pro forma beer volume declined 4.2% from a year ago driven by industry weakness in each of our major markets. Our underlying pre-tax income decreased 23.1% to $136.3 million. As Peter mentioned, most of this decline was due to unfavorable foreign currency with the balance caused by a combination of weak industry volumes in key markets and continuing commodity inflation. Foreign currency movements decreased this pre-tax profit by approximately $23 million in the fourth quarter driven by a 19% year-over-year depreciation of the Canadian Dollar and a 23% depreciation of the British Pound versus the US dollar. On the bottom line the underlying after tax income of $105.1 million or $0.57 per diluted share was 21% lower than the fourth quarter a year ago. It is important to note that our fourth quarter underlying earnings exclude some one-time expenses particularly related to MillerCoors and our Foster’s cash settled total return swap as well as a net special credit of $2.1 million. These adjustments to our US GAAP results are described in detail in the earnings release we distributed this morning. Also, unless otherwise indicated all financial results we share with you today will be in US dollars. In segment performance highlights starting with Canada, our business faced strong headwinds from unfavorable foreign currency, continued cost inflation, slowing industry volume and competitive price discounting in Quebec. These negative factors were partially offset by favorable net pricing as we implanted an additional price increase in most of Canada in the fourth quarter. To provide more comparable results, as I discuss Canada performance I will provide year-over-year changes that exclude the reporting effects of discontinuing our Foster’s US contract earlier in the fourth quarter of 2007 and of setting up the Modelo Molson joint…

Peter Swinburn

Management

In 2009 we will continue to focus on building our strong brand as reducing costs in each of our businesses and generating cash. In Canada, as with other markets, we will balance the priorities of price and volume with a bias to investing in growing our brands. Price discounting activity has continued, especially in the Quebec off premise channel. Recent price increases across the major Canadian provinces have offset some of the impact of competitive discounting. We will remain focused on balancing our strategic [inaudible] priorities and building the equity of our brands while ensuring that we continue to be price competitive on a market-by-market basis. Also, late in 2008 Blue Moon production was moved from a Montreal brewery to MillerCoors and we have taken action to reduce staffing levels and other costs to offset the negative financial impact of lower production levels. In the US, the MillerCoors integration is proceeding well. Talent selection was completed in the fourth quarter enabling the realization of significant organizational synergies. In addition, non-organizational savings have been realized due to progress in brewery optimization and opportunities to consolidate national media buying, regional distributor meetings and insurance. The US team is more confident than ever that they can deliver the $500 million annual synergies goal by the third year of combined operations. We’re brand builders so we’re committed to improving the performance of Miller Light in 2009. Driving growth of both our premium light brands is critical to our success. Accordingly, later this month we will launch a new marketing campaign for Miller Light which will relentlessly celebrate the brand’s great taste. We will also focus on maintained momentum for Coors Light and capturing new growth through the success of MGD 64 and we will continue to build on the momentum of our craft and…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Kaumil Gajrawala – UBS. Kaumil Gajrawala – UBS: As it relates to some of the promotional activity in Canada do you feel that this is something that was just hot pricing on a particular product for a couple of months at a retailer or is this something that you feel might be more of a change in strategy from your competitor?

Stewart Glendinning

Management

Kaumil, are you talking about Quebec now I presume? Kaumil Gajrawala – UBS: Yes, Quebec.

Stewart Glendinning

Management

No, this has been going on for – the discounting started just prior to the summer and it’s not on one or two products at this point so it’s been fairly broad. I would say that the industry has been through these before and the length of time that the discounting takes place varies from time period to time period but we have particularly in the fourth quarter we did slightly pull back from our discounting and we were unsuccessful in changing the market conditions. We will continue to do what is right for both our brand and the company. Kaumil Gajrawala – UBS: As we think about the Montreal brewery moving Blue Moon out plus standing firm on pricing, the impact on volumes that might have, is there a need for maybe a broader cut in capacity in that region?

Stewart Glendinning

Management

What we did when we loss the Blue Moon volume was we made headcount changes there and actually we’ve been able to totally offset the cost that we would have incurred with losing that volume so we don’t foresee anything more at this point in time.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Judy Hong – Goldman Sachs. Judy Hong – Goldman Sachs: Kevin, I just wanted to follow up on Canada because it sounds like the industry volume has softened and the competitive environment is still pretty intense and I’m just not sure what really gets better as you kind of think about the 2009 and whether you’re looking at perhaps reinvesting a lot more of potential cost savings to reinvigorate volume in that market.

Kevin T. Boyce

Analyst

It’s a bit of a tough call right now Judy. If you stand back and look at the industry in 2008, the industry actually grew 1.1%. So, over the last 10 years it’s grown 1% so that’s been very consistent. There was some softness in the fourth quarter where it grew about a half a point. That, we believe, was driven by a number of factors but there was a very difficult weather season right around the Christmas time period which would have hurt the industry at a very important time. So, it’s a bit of a hard read there. As we go in to January, what we’re seeing is relative to a year ago as Peter mentioned, our shipments are down about mid single digits but if you look at last year as an industry and both our shipments as well, the anomaly is probably January, 2008. If you could back to January 2007 and 2006 the numbers in January this year are pretty consistent with those. We are paying very close attention to it obviously with the economy and everything. It would be very hard to say thought that the industry is soft as a result of the economy or any other factors right now, there are a lot of moving parts but it’s something that clearly we’re focused on. In terms of go forward and what we would do from a pricing perspective or promotion perspective, we think we have pretty solid plans in place and we took pricing through many of the markets in the fourth quarter of last year so we enter this year from a pricing perspective in pretty good shape I think. Judy Hong – Goldman Sachs: Then with the cost pressure easing in Canada in 2009 to low single digits, is there concern that actually the promotional environment gets even more competitive in that setting?

Kevin T. Boyce

Analyst

There is that risk. What you’re going to see is I think – I can’t speak for competitors but for us you’re going to see that benefit taking place over the course of the year as certainly commodity pricings are coming down but they’re not going to come down all at once in say the first or second quarter type of thing. But, there is the risk, I would say if you look at the rest of the country the promotions have been much more tactical than broad scale and I would see that continuing as well. Judy Hong – Goldman Sachs: Then from MillerCoors’ perspective is there any way to quantify the potential pension contribution? In terms of may be not exactly giving us the number but sort of the size of potential contribution there and how we think about the free cash flow that slows up to the tap?

Gavin Hattersley

Analyst

Judy, we are in the process of looking at that with our actuaries and the impact. We’ve got up until late in the third quarter to make the call on exactly how much we will need to put in to our plans.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Christine Farkas – Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Christine Farkas – Bank of America Merrill Lynch: I wanted to get a little bit of color on the Foster stake, if there’s been any change there with respect to your view strategically on that potential down the road for one? Then secondly, with respect to free cash flow in ’09, you gave us a little bit of an outlook for cap ex at the company but I’m really trying to get some help in understanding the potential free cash flow available to Molson Coors post MillerCoors? And then, how you would look at deploying that or priorities for your free cash in ’09.

Peter Swinburn

Management

Christine, I’ll take the first one on Fosters and then Stewart can pick up on the free cash flow. I think the short answer to your questions is no, there’s no real change. What we said last time about Fosters really still holds, the exposure we’re comfortable with given the size of our balance sheet. We’re interested in the market, we’re interested in the company, we see them as interesting and we want to keep our options open and that’s really where we are.

Stewart Glendinning

Management

I’ll pick up on the cash flow, first of all we’re very pleased that we managed to hit the numbers for ’08. We have given you some guidance with respect to capital spending this year, you’re right and when we are at our analyst meeting in New York, we will share with you the details of our plans for ’09 and some of those priorities so you’ll have to wait a couple more weeks. Christine Farkas – Bank of America Merrill Lynch: Then if I could follow up on Canada, Kevin just looking at the economy getting a little bit softer there, can you talk a little bit about channel pressures and perhaps what you’ve seen in the past? Do you tend to see trade down from wine? Is there an opportunity here both in a product and a channel mix change?

Kevin T. Boyce

Analyst

Obviously there’s been a series of announcements over the last few weeks with respect on unemployment and things which are of concern in the economy here. I would say in the short term you are seeing softness in the on premise channel. It’s a very hard short term read now to figure out whether or not we’re seeing a trade down from win to beer or within beer segments. We’re paying very close attention to that but I’d say at a top level you are seeing some softness over the last months in the on premise channel and in total the industry looking a touch soft and I do say just a touch but it’s a really hard read because of all the issues with weather and it is a softer time of the year. If that were to happen and I was told anecdotally that back in the early 90s when it was a soft time that there was some trade down but we’re not seeing it in our numbers yet. Trade down, by that I mean from wine to beer. Christine Farkas – Bank of America Merrill Lynch: And would you expect to see a similar offset or uptick I would say in the take home channels given the slow softening now in on premise?

Kevin T. Boyce

Analyst

Yes, that would be the belief. We haven’t built our plans on a massive trade down if you like from one segment to the other or from one category to the other. But, we are paying attention and we’ll adjust accordingly. But, we would expect that if there is a softness in on premise that people would continue to consume at home and have parties at home, etc.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Mark Swartzberg – Stifel Nicolaus & Company, Inc. Mark Swartzberg – Stifel Nicolaus & Company, Inc.: Kevin, I was hoping we’d get a bit more granularity on how things are unfolding and how you expect they will unfold in the different regions of Canada along the two metrics of volume and profit. Obviously, Quebec has been challenging, it seems like Montreal and some other markets too are to an extent offsetting that but, can you give us a little bit more granularity, just kind of go around the country and tell us what you’re seeing and how you see it unfolding?

Kevin T. Boyce

Analyst

Ontario which is our biggest market, and Ontario is a very heavy industry market in a sense of a big auto sector, etc. so there is some softening in the economy here. The market was under 1% growth last year which it’s very hard to judge year-to-year based on the market but we are getting pricing in the marketplace. Pricing was taken in the October time period, minimum price has moved up as well so there is some encouraging news there. Promotion wise, you’re not seeing an acceleration to be honest over the last three to four months, you’re seeing a relatively constant heavy amount but not what I would consider what’s happening in Quebec. In the Western part of the country again, pricing has been taken particularly Alberta has been reliant on the energy industry and so it will be interesting to see with a softening in commodity prices and things like that how our industry holds up. Right now, because of the way we’ve taken pricing year-over-year from one market to the next, we’re having a bit of a hard read just in understanding how much of the changes in the industry are pricing, etc. But, that’s something we’ll be keeping a close eye on. The Atlantic which is about 7% of the market continues actually to be a fairly good performer and we enjoy very good share growth there. Again, from a discounting perspective nothing that’s tremendously out of the ordinary there. Mark Swartzberg – Stifel Nicolaus & Company, Inc.: A question more specifically on Quebec, it seems like it doesn’t sound like you’re saying it got worse in the fourth quarter, are you saying it got worse? Then, what is to prevent it from getting worse from a pure share perspective if we except that you’re going to be disciplined on price, your competitors choosing to be more promotional, what risk does that bring that your share performance gets worse?

Kevin T. Boyce

Analyst

I think we’d like to be disciplined but honestly it’s going to be to a point. We’re not prepared to not participate if all of our competitions are going to go that way. We’re the leader in Quebec and we think we’re doing the right thing by not partaking in the early part of the quarter bus realistically if the whole market wants to participate we’ll be there. When you look at the fourth quarter, I think the change from earlier quarters was probably a greater participation of discounting in the independent channel. The grocery channel was relatively consistent throughout the last nine months of the year as it went from just a grocery channel in to an independent channel and that we’ll play close attention to as we enter this year. Mark Swartzberg – Stifel Nicolaus & Company, Inc.: And it sounds like you’re not seeing any evidence of your main competitor changing their tactical approach to the market with the various retailers.

Kevin T. Boyce

Analyst

Not yet.

Operator

Operator

Gentlemen I am showing no further questions.

Peter Swinburn

Management

Thank you everybody for joining us and showing your interest in Molson Coors. Great to have you on the line and we look forward to seeing all of you in New York in early March.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen thank you for participating in today’s conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.