Earnings Labs

Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP)

Q4 2012 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 14, 2013

$42.40

-0.45%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-1.00%

1 Week

+5.71%

1 Month

+8.78%

vs S&P

+7.26%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to the Molson Coors Brewing Company Fourth Quarter 2012 Earnings Conference Call. Before we begin, I will paraphrase the company's Safe Harbor language. Some of the discussion today may include forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from what the company projects today, so please refer to its most recent 10-K and 10-Q filings for a more complete description of factors that could affect these projections. The company does not undertake to publicly update forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. You should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date they are made. Regarding any non-U.S. GAAP measures that may be discussed during the call and from time to time by the company's executives in discussing the company's performance, please visit the company's website, www.molsoncoors.com, and click on the Financial Reporting tab of the Investor Relations page for a reconciliation of these measures to the nearest U.S. GAAP results. Also, unless otherwise indicated, all financial results the company discusses are versus the comparable prior year period in U.S. dollars. Now I would like to turn the call over to Mr. Peter Swinburn, President and CEO of Molson Coors.

Peter S. Swinburn

Management

Thank you, Jay. Hello, and welcome, everybody, to the Molson Coors earnings call. Thank you for joining us. With me on the call this morning are Gavin Hattersley, Molson Coors' CFO; Stewart Glendinning, CEO of Molson Coors Canada; Tom Long, CEO of MillerCoors; Mark Hunter, CEO of Molson Coors Europe; Kandy Anand, CEO of Molson Coors International; Sam Walker, Molson Coors Chief Legal and People Officer; Zahir Ibrahim, Molson Coors' Controller; and Dave Dunnewald, Molson Coors' VP of Investor Relations. Mark and Stewart's new roles are related to the restructuring we initiated last fall, which combined our U.K. and Ireland businesses with our new Central Europe organization to create a single European business as of January 1, 2013. On the earnings call today, Gavin and I will take you through highlights of our fourth quarter and full year 2012 results for Molson Coors Brewing Company, along with some initial perspectives on 2013. In the fourth quarter, our worldwide volume and net sales increased due to the addition of our Central Europe business. Underlying after-tax income declined 28%, driven by a higher tax rate and cycling strong quarterly results the year before, which included an additional week in our fiscal 2011 and some other onetime factors that did not repeat in 2012. Gavin will provide additional details on the fourth quarter performance in a few minutes. For the full year 2012, the biggest news was the acquisition of our Central Europe business, which we expect to strengthen our company, enhance our growth profile and increase shareholder value in the years ahead. We have begun implementing plans to capture synergies, leverage best practices and pay down debt related to buying this new business. This acquisition helped our 2012 worldwide volume grow by 14%, net sales by more than 11% and underlying earnings…

Christien Coors Ficeli

Management

Thank you, Peter, and hello, everybody. Molson Coors' fourth quarter underlying after-tax earnings decreased 28.4% to $126.1 million or $0.69 per share. The decline in results was driven by weak economic conditions and challenging prior year comparisons in all of our businesses. Worldwide beer volume for Molson Coors increased more than 15% due to the addition of Central Europe results and strong Coors Light growth in all of our core markets. On a pro forma basis, including Central Europe in 2011, worldwide volume decreased 7% for the quarter, driven by lower volume in the U.K, Canada, Central Europe and international. Canada and U.K. declines were partially attributable to starting the 53rd week in our 2011 fiscal year. Regionally, lower volume translates into lower underlying profit performance. Results of this quarter were in line with expectations, and we continue to pursue additional sources of top line and bottom line growth, which we will discuss in a few minutes. Now a reminder about how we are presenting our results for our new Central Europe business and Molson Coors International. In order to provide the most useful information, we will discuss Central Europe results this year in comparison to pro forma results for the comparable prior year period. Also, our International group is managing the exports and license business for our Central Europe brands. As we have in previous quarters, I will provide an overview of our results with MillerCoors presented as if it were proportionately consolidated. This is a non-GAAP approach, but we believe it provides a useful view of some key performance metrics for our business. On this basis, total company net sales increased 6.3% in the fourth quarter, driven by the addition of the Central Europe business along with growth in the United States. Net sales per hectoliter decreased 5.4%…

Peter S. Swinburn

Management

Thanks, Gavin. So in Canada, we are pleased to see the return of hockey. But due to the short lead time, we'll be unable to affect full retail activation until the fall. We expect our 2 lead brands in Canada to benefit from the renewed drive behind our innovative Aluminum Pint bottle and our new Molson Canadian advertising that went viral prior to its TV launch. We also -- we will also continue to transfer our craft beers to new regions following the success of Granville Island in Ontario last year. In the U.S., we will be developing our portfolio in the above-premium and craft and working to gain share in premium lights. We are planning new line extensions for Leinenkugels and Blue Moon for fall -- for summer and fall. In above-premium, we're also launching Redd's Apple Ale and Third Shift. In premium lights, we're investing behind new commercial properties, including multicultural for Coors Light and Miller Lite, and we'll also launch a new Miller Lite bottle in the on-premise. In Europe, we delivered a strong competitive performance in a tough trading environment with market share and pricing growth in all our major markets with the exception of the U.K. and Romania. We also accelerated innovation performance driven by beer mixes, strong Staropramen growth and strict overhead cost management. The restructuring to combine our U.K. and Ireland businesses with Central Europe has gone smoothly, enabling additional European cost savings to be delivered in 2013. In Hungary, we have stabilized and restructured the business under new leadership. And in Romania, which is our lowest share major market in the region, we have introduced new leadership, added sales resources, dealt with inventory overstocks and refocused the portfolio on higher-value segments. In the U.K, Carling-produced cider will be hitting off-premise retailer shelves…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from Judy Hong with Goldman Sachs.

Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst

So I guess I just wanted to get a little bit more color on Central and Eastern Europe. I think you've talked about some of the competitive dynamics in some markets. But broadly speaking, kind of what are you seeing from a macro perspective for the category as a whole? A little bit more color in terms of the markets where you're gaining share, what you're doing differently in those markets. And then just the profit decline in the fourth quarter was also a little bit surprising to me in Central Europe. So kind of from a profitability perspective, if you can help to understand what drove the decline in the quarter.

Peter S. Swinburn

Management

Sure. So Judy, I think I'll take the first part of the question, and I'll pass the second part on to Mark to give you the sort of granularity. I think really, we covered it off in the script. I mean, on a relative basis, this business is performing exceptionally well. As I said, we've taken market share in Bulgaria. You asked why. I mean, obviously, that's down to execution and the strength of our brands. We've got the highest market share ever in Croatia, and we've got activity coming forward there that we're very pleased about in terms of new bottles. Czech Republic, we've gained share in a difficult on-trade market and doing well generally in that market. We've grown share in every single market, apart from Romania, and Mark can speak to that in a second. And we've got double-digit growth in Staropramen, which is our -- I would say our core brand in that -- sorry, our core above-premium brand in that market. So overall, that's a very strong set in a relative difficult environment. So overall, very pleased with it. Because the results have some detail and which need explaining, so I'll pass it now over to Mark. And Mark, maybe you can make reference to what's going on in Romania as well.

Mark Hunter

Analyst

Sure. Thanks, Peter. Judy, just a couple of builds on Peter's comments, and I'll talk specifically about the fourth quarter. I mean, I think on the Q3 call, I was very clear about the fact that we're seeing, certainly from a GDP perspective, lower growth rates than we're anticipating, and that's having a direct impact on overall beer consumption. And in fact, on a full year basis overall, there were only really 2 markets that showed any volume growth, the Romanian market and the Bulgarian market. And as Peter said, we've taken market leadership in Bulgaria, which is great news. In Romania, I mentioned in Q3 that most of the growth in that market was coming in the very low-margin value segment. We chose not to participate in Q3, and we've continued not participating through the fourth quarter, with our focus really being on our core brands and our premium brands because we believe that will give the business long-term sustainability. We actually look at the specific profit numbers in the fourth quarter. In local currency, we were down about 5%. So we've been running the business now for 2 quarters. We posted strong growth in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, we're down 5% in local currency. And I took 2 decisions through the fourth quarter which impacted on that. It was clear, as the business left 2011, a significant stock had been pushed into the market in both Romania and Serbia, and I took a decision to de-stock the distribution pipeline. And that cost us in profit terms a couple of million euros. So if you actually add that back on to our Q4 numbers, then it gives us a much more solid position in the fourth quarter. And it sets us up for, I think, all of the right behaviors and actions as we move into 2013, building on the back of what has been share growth in every one of our major markets, with the exception being the Romanian market for the reason I've described. So hopefully, that gives you a little bit more color to both the profit number and just some of the volume trends.

Judy E. Hong - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst

That's helpful. So -- and then just in terms of Europe, so can -- is the savings you could be getting from the integration of the U.K., Ireland and then, I guess, perhaps the further savings, Europe broadly consolidating between U.K. and the Central and Eastern Europe, can you quantify potential savings, how meaningful that could be over time?

Peter S. Swinburn

Management

We will, when we update everybody at the next analyst call, Judy, which is what we promised at the last quarter. We're still in consultation in Europe. We have to go through certain regulatory hoops in terms of doing restructuring. So that consultation won't be completed until the end of March. So we're not in a position to give final details. But you can see some of the specials that we've highlighted in our earnings results this morning. So that should give you some idea or some guidance but not in so many specific numbers.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Dara Mohsenian with Morgan Stanley.

Dara W. Mohsenian - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

I was hoping you could review the competitive environment in Canada, particularly in the West, and the impact on your business potentially from the Québec excise tax increases.

Stewart F. Glendinning

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

Sure, Dara. Stew, here. Just -- I'll take those separately. I mean, certainly, as we look at Québec, 20% increase in taxes there will have a negative effect. And certainly, we saw it in the latter part of the fourth quarter. Difficult to say precisely what that impact is. But as price goes up, consumers will buy less. I think when you look at the West, the dynamic is different there. It's a competitive dynamic. A couple of things in play. So first, the smaller brewers have continued to extend in 2 markets there, one in the value space, where value has grown quite dramatically, and then particularly in the craft space. We're competing in both of those spaces with Keystone at the value end and with Granville Island and, to a lesser extent in the West, with Creemore at the top end. There's also -- we've seen in the West perhaps some more aggressive innovation, which came earlier in last year, which -- from competitors, which we saw coming earlier last year, which sort of flowed through the year. And if we look out to this year, we think we've got a very exciting innovation pipeline, and we're well positioned to play in the market.

Dara W. Mohsenian - Morgan Stanley, Research Division

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

Okay. And then the mid-single-digit January growth in the STRs, that's a very strong rebound in Canada. But you mentioned some timing benefits. So can you give me a sense of kind of a more normalized underlying trend?

Stewart F. Glendinning

Analyst · Morgan Stanley.

Yes, I -- we can't really give any guidance there. But I would say that the mid-single-digit rate that you see there is not reflective of the market fundamentals, and that is largely down to the timing of promotional activities and customer buy-in. So I would -- that's the best answer I can give you.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Ian Shackleton with Nomura.

Ian Shackleton - Nomura Securities Co. Ltd., Research Division

Analyst · Nomura.

Two questions. So just clarifying what I think what Peter said. On Canada, the comment was made that, if I understood correctly, that you'd expect market share to be covering by the fall after the hockey change. I just wanted to clarify if I got that right. And equally, on the International business, was the comment made that the losses will be small in 2013? We're not expecting a return to profits that we saw in Q4?

Peter S. Swinburn

Management

All right. So on Canada, Ian, what I said was that we wouldn't be able to fully activate the NHL sponsorship at the retail end until the fall because, obviously, the lead times you need with retailers and so on means that we can't put it into place some -- in sort of first half of the year. So it wasn't the market share position, it was specifically the activation against the NHL property. And yes, you were right in terms of the International business. The -- what we said was the loss would be reduced.

Ian Shackleton - Nomura Securities Co. Ltd., Research Division

Analyst · Nomura.

I mean, is it going to be fairly substantial? I mean, are we talking about the halving of the loss you had this year for 2012?

Peter S. Swinburn

Management

The loss will be reduced, yes. I think that's as much as we can tell you, Ian.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from John Faucher with JPMorgan. John A. Faucher - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Just want to follow up a little bit on Dara's question in terms of Canada. And your answer there, it sounds as though, I guess, it's shipments coming in a little bit earlier. So do you think you'll be able to be positive for the quarter in terms of STRs given the strong start you had, even if it's taking volume out of the rest of the quarter? And then the second question I have...

Unknown Executive

Analyst

Well, let's answer the first piece. I just -- I don't -- we can't give you guidance for the first quarter. I just want to draw attention to the fact that I think the number that you're seeing there is not reflective of the true market fundamentals. Some of the increase we, no doubt, will get are around hockey, for example. I mean, hockey didn't get going right until the end of January. So that's not a big influence here in the number. I just -- as we release that number, I'd like you to just make sure you understand what some of the drivers are. John A. Faucher - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: Okay. And then moving on to the tax rate. It's one of the things where you guys talk about the long-term tax rate and eventually it's going to go there. It hasn't moved. And in fact, because of some of things you've done, the tax rate generally has been lower. What's the right way to think about the progression on that? Is -- when it finally starts to move, is it a slow buildup over time? Is it a one-shot deal? How should we think about that in terms of longer term?

Gavin Hattersley

Analyst

John, I would not characterize it as a one-jump deal, I think, you referred to. I think it's going to be a slow progression over time. And as I said on the call, it'll take us a few years to get there.

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from Bryan Spillane with Bank of America.

Bryan D. Spillane - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Bank of America.

So 2 questions. One, first, just in terms of the hockey season this year, given the strike and the lack of ability to fully merchandise against it, do you get any rebate or any insurance? Is there any remuneration you get for not being able to fully merchandise against it?

Stewart F. Glendinning

Analyst · Bank of America.

Bryan, it sounds like you've been at a good hockey game. But I will say that we work -- clearly, one of the drivers in the fourth quarter was a reduction in some of our marketing expense related to activation around hockey, but we haven't been specific about what those numbers are that -- since that agreement is confidential.

Bryan D. Spillane - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Bank of America.

Okay. So that is -- that's not necessarily just not spending. That is getting some sort of remuneration for it, I guess, is what I was trying to get after?

Stewart F. Glendinning

Analyst · Bank of America.

Yes, I can't get into any more detail, I'm sorry. But all of that stuff is reflected in total in our marketing spend. And so I guess my argument would be it doesn't really matter which side it comes from.

Bryan D. Spillane - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Bank of America.

Well, I guess what I was -- as we're looking at modeling to the back half of 2013, were you -- we should be looking at more significant increases in marketing just because you've got an abnormally low level in the fourth quarter? I guess that's what...

Stewart F. Glendinning

Analyst · Bank of America.

I would say that, that is true in the fourth quarter. We had an unusually low level in the fourth quarter. But again, we also had much lower volumes. So we would naturally take those kinds of steps.

Bryan D. Spillane - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Bank of America.

Right, right. Understood. And then just a second question more broadly. We've had a couple of big acquisitions on the tape this morning. And just in general, given the low financing environment, it just seems like it's a market that's pretty conducive to M&A. I know that you're still digesting StarBev, but just -- could you just talk more broadly about kind of what your perspective is on M&A, on the environment, your willingness to look at things today?

Peter S. Swinburn

Management

Sure. As you said, since we did the StarBev acquisition, we're very focused on paying down debt and maintaining our investment grade. So that really is what we're focused on. If there is some small infills in terms of portfolio fills or whatever, we would be interested and would look at that. But if you're talking about major M&A activity, that's not something that's on our agenda in the short term.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And we have no further questions at this time. I turn the call back to the presenters.

Peter S. Swinburn

Management

Okay. Well, thank you, everybody, for participating. And I look forward to speaking to you again at the end of the next quarter. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect. Thank you.