Good day, and welcome to the Molson Coors Beverage Company Third Quarter Fiscal Year 2021 Earnings Conference Call. You can find related slides on the Investor Relations page of the Molson Coors website. Our speakers today are Gavin Hattersley, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Tracey Joubert, Chief Financial Officer. With that, I'll hand it over to Greg Tierney, Vice President of FP&A and Investor Relations.

Thank you, Charlie, and hello, everyone. Following prepared remarks today from Gavin and Tracey, we will take your questions. . Today's discussion includes forward-looking statements, and actual results or trends could differ materially from our forecast. For more information, please refer to the risk factors discussed in our most recent filings with the SEC. We assume no obligation to update forward-looking statements. GAAP reconciliations for any non-U.S. GAAP measures are included in our news release. And also, unless otherwise indicated, all financial results the company discusses are versus the comparable prior year period and in U.S. dollars. With that, over to you, Gavin.

Thanks, Greg, and thanks, everybody, for joining us here this morning. I'm going to change things up a bit here from our normal structure, and I'm going to share 7 key headlines from our third quarter. Firstly, Coors Light is growing share of the total beer category in the United States. This is our biggest brand in our biggest market, a brand that many doubters could get back onto this trajectory, and it's growing share in the industry for the first time in more than 5 years. Two, globally, Molson Coors' net sales revenue from its above premium portfolio has surpassed 25% of our brand volume net sales revenue on a trailing 12-month basis for the first time since the revitalization plan was announced. Third, Molson Coors' grown share of the U.S. above premium segment for 2 straight quarters for the first time in over 5 years. Four, as we expand beyond beer and with 3 months still left in the year, Molson Coors has sold nearly 2 million cases of non-alcohol beverages in the United States; five, Molson Coors' total market share trend in Canada has improved for 8 straight months, leading to national share growth in the third quarter, and the European business has bounced back, essentially reaching 2019 revenue levels; sixth, challenges in the global supply chain impacted our third quarter volumes. We are already seeing improvements in brewery output in October. We are back to shipping approximately 1 million barrels per week in the U.S. during the fourth quarter. And in aggregate, distributor inventories are starting to improve; and seventh, like for so many others, transportation availability and transportation costs are worse than they have been in years. So I want to start there and then we'll work backwards. Like we've discussed for the second quarter…

Thank you, Gavin, and hello, everyone. As Gavin mentioned, we are again reaffirming our key financial annual guidance for 2021. We continue to make real progress executing our revitalization plan. We invested behind our business, driving premiumization of our portfolio of our brands and strengthening our core business while continuing to delever our balance sheet and to reinstate the dividend. But like most consumer product companies, we face supply chain challenges and inflationary cost headwinds in the quarter, which had an impact on our quarterly results. Now let me take you through our quarterly results in more detail and provide an update on our outlook. Consolidated net sales revenue increased 1% in constant currency, delivering over 99% of third quarter 2019 level despite the on-premise continuing to operate below pre-pandemic levels. Consolidated financial volumes declined 3.9%, primarily due to lower brand volumes, which were down 3.6%, largely due to the economy segment, including the economy SKU deprioritization program. Top line performance benefited from strong global net pricing, favorable brand mix levels in North America as we continue to premiumize our portfolio, double-digit revenue growth in Europe and positive channel mix. Net sales per hectoliter on a brand volume basis increased 3.6% in constant currency, driven by the strong pricing growth, coupled with positive brand and channel mix. Underlying COGS per hectoliter increased 8.9% on a constant currency basis, driven by cost inflation, including higher transportation and input costs, mix impact from premiumization and volume deleverage. However, with our robust hedging and cost savings programs, we have been able to mitigate some of the inflationary pressure. Underlying MG&A in the quarter increased 3.5% on a constant currency basis due to higher marketing investment behind our core brands and innovation as well as parking targeted reductions to marketing spend in the prior…

. Our first question comes from Lauren Lieberman of Barclays.

Great. I was hoping -- sorry, Tracey and Gavin, both of you very clearly reiterated the expectation on EBITDA for the year. My only question is just it implies really significant growth in the fourth quarter. And given the COGS for hectoliter inflation, it was 9%, if I recall, this quarter, I know the, if you will, comp gets easier on cost in the fourth quarter year-over-year and you've got some on-premise tailwinds with mix. But just anything else we should be aware of that kind of allows for the type of EBITDA growth you would need particularly at Q4 in order to get to the year given the cost environment, it's going to be helpful to get more color on that.

Lauren, yes, look, I mean just -- the first statement I'd say is that we wouldn't reiterate the guidance if we didn't believe that we would hit it. Maybe just a couple of contextual points to help you here, right? I mean, the fourth quarter last year in Europe and Canada were very difficult as a result of the almost total lockdown of the on-premise. And that's not our expectation this year, and we haven't seen that in October, which is obviously the first month of the fourth quarter. I did cover off in my opening remarks, the challenges that we had with the sales to wholesalers shipments in the third quarter. And that has improved meaningfully in October due to the actions which we took to improve that. And as I said, our distributor inventory levels are approximately 20% higher than they were coming out of the third quarter, which is obviously very helpful from that perspective as well. Our above premium performance continues to accelerate, whether that's brands like Blue Moon Belgian Whites and Peroni and our seltzer portfolio as well as our emerging growth portfolio. So yes, I think those are the contextual points I would give you. On the flip side, I'll tell you, at the same time, we do intend to increase marketing spend. I know there's been some conversation about the fact that it's either or. And for us, it's not. It's both and. And we did that in the third quarter. We increased our marketing spend above 2019 levels and above, obviously, 2020, which was -- is an easier comp. And we plan to spend more than 2019 levels in the fourth quarter as well behind the success that we're seeing in many of our brands. So hopefully, that's helpful for you.

It is. I mean -- I think the -- my recollection was that some of the innovation, though, at least in the near term, is margin dilutive? Or there is a higher cost to do some of the above premium and emerging growth pieces of -- again in the near term. So I guess, is that incorrect? Or are we starting to cycle some of that already by the fourth quarter? Because maybe I'm thinking that maybe the biggest thing is the distributor inventory, right? Is the higher volume moving out the door and the leverage you're going to see on those shipments is maybe the biggest piece of the equation?

Well, certainly, that is going to be positive for us in the fourth quarter. I'd reiterate again that our European and Canadian comps for Q4 are not terribly challenging given the on-premise environment that we had last year. And certainly, as we start to gain scale in some of our innovations, so that improves profitability. I mean we have increased our seltzer share by more than 50% since the beginning of the year. And our 2 brands in that space are growing faster than any other major company in the third quarter, and we plan to accelerate that. Our share on seltzer in the last readouts was close to 7.5%. So already even more than we saw at the end of Q3. So that's -- I think that kind of covers it all, Lauren.

Our next question is from Rob Ottenstein of Evercore.

Great. And Gavin, congratulations on being so prescient in your views on the seltzer category. Along those lines, love to get your thoughts on how that category -- how you really see that category developing as well as how the overall RTD category is developing and kind of the interaction between those 2, if you see them pretty much as the same thing or a little bit different? And how your views on how those are going to develop, impact your long-term strategy?

Thanks, Robert. Yes, look, you're right. We have been saying for more than a year now that seltzers couldn't grow at the pace that they were growing. But I would say that it's still up double digits year-to-date. So I mean, the segment is significant, and it's here to stay. But it's important now, I think, in this new space in the seltzer categories, you need to drive strong brands with a clear point of difference. And that's why our 2 seltzer brands grew more share than any other major brewer in the third quarter and why we feel so good about those 2 brands. As far as the overall ITD space is concerned, I mean, obviously, it's an emerging and fast-growing segment. ITD sales already outpaced spirits, and that gap is only going to widen in the future. And competing in this space is a natural fit for us, given that we've got hundreds of years of experience in alcoholic beverages and lots of experience in 12-ounce cans and bottles. So we will continue to compete in this category with brands like Superbird and potential innovation that we're looking at.

The next question comes from Nadine Sarwat of Bernstein.

Gavin and Tracey, two related questions, if I may. So the first is industry press has reported that you'll be significantly increasing your freight and fuel surcharge to distributors. So when does this increase become effective? And does this help you offset the increase in transportation costs? If so, by how much, given that pressure we've seen on margins? And the second related question is, could you elaborate both on the magnitude and cadence of your pricing increase over the next 12 months?

Nadine, from a freight and fuel point of view, this is a program that we put in place with our distributors, gosh, 10 years ago, Tracey. Yes, about 10 years ago. And the objective was they're really there to share the increase in freight and fuel and to eliminate volatility. And we've had years where the freight and fuel surcharge has gone down, for example, the last 2 years. And unfortunately, given the significant challenges that exist in the whole freight and fuel market, it is going to go up meaningfully next year. And yes, it is a cost sharing between ourselves and the distributors. So about -- was 50-50. So I mean it's a cost sharing. When do we finalize the number? We finalized it at the end of the year and it will apply to the whole for the whole of next year. As far as pricing is concerned, Nadine, that one is a tougher one for me, right? Because obviously, we don't provide guidance on price going forward for obvious reasons. But we closely watch and evaluate our pricing. We do it on a market-by-market basis. We do it brand by brand to see how it best fits with our brand strength and so on. And obviously, input costs play a role in those decisions. We do have other levers which can help offset inflationary pressures. As Tracey mentioned, one of them moving from truck to rail. We've got our cost savings programs. We have a robust hedging program. Our overall premiumization strategy is driving strong positive mix in our NSR per hectoliter. I think this quarter was the fifth quarter that we've grown that, notwithstanding the significant comp that we had in this space from Q3. And then we've got a variety of revenue management tools. We've spent a long time in the last 6 years since 2015 building revenue management tool capability. And I think we've as well placed in that space as we've been in a long time.

The next question is from Steve Powers of Deutsche Bank.

I actually wanted to go back to Lauren's question on the fourth quarter, if I could, just to better understand because while I think I get the easier comparison with a year ago in parts of the business. The guidance implies essentially a return to, as I do the math, about 95% of 2019 EBITDA in the quarter, which itself was, I think, a multiyear high. And that's in spite of the higher marketing, Gavin, you mentioned the supply chain inflation we've been talking about elective cost of some of these economy brands. So just if you -- I know you've already addressed it once, but if there's anything you can kind of elaborate on a little bit further, just give us more confidence and build that bridge, not so much to 2019, but just -- sorry, 2020, but thinking back to a 2019 base when things were more normal because it feels like a pretty big step-up relative to the run rate year-to-date. And I guess, underneath that question, is that 1 million barrels per week shipment velocity that you called out for October. Is the implication and the emphasis on that to say that you expect to be able to maintain that for the duration of the fourth quarter?

Steve, let me see if I can try and help you without repeating everything I just said. I mean I would again say we wouldn't give you the guidance if we didn't believe we would hit it. I don't -- that's just not how we operate. Shipments is obviously an important factor in this. And getting back to 1 million barrels a week. It was an important milestone for us that -- but just to give you some dimension, that's kind of the level of shipments that we would have as we head into summer. So we're doing a really nice job so far in October of rebuilding our distributor inventory levels and inventory days. And already, many of our SKUs are close to where we would like them to be. It's not 1 million barrels every single week because obviously, the Thanksgiving, we would shut for Thanksgiving day and there's Christmas Day and so on. So it's not a 1 size fits all for every single week, but that's an important component. From an on-premise point of view, in both -- in all of U.S. and Canada and Europe. I mean, this is performing better than it has in previous quarters. From an NSR point of view, in the U.S., we're at approximately 85% of 2019 levels in Q3. And in Canada or on-premise restrictions have eased back a lot and volumes are back up to close to 80% of 2019 levels. And as I said, the U.K. and Central Eastern Europe from an NSR point of view, is close to 100% of what it was in 2019. And the fourth quarter last year was a very, very tough comparison for both Canada and for Europe. Our NSR per hectoliter when you compare it to 2019 is going to be meaningfully up because of the premiumization efforts that we've had.

The next question comes from Laurent Grandet of Guggenheim.

So again, I'd like to come back to the seltzer comment probably more, I mean focus on what you are doing. You would be launching Topo Chico nationally beginning of the year, expansion into Margarita and some more figured expansion in Vizzy. So you used to give the street kind of your objective in terms of market share. Could you share with us what your objective for next year and what you are trying to reach with those line extensions? And then probably, if I may, I mean, on the Beyond Beer. You mentioned about the 1 million case and it start to be meaningful. So how should we think about the economics for you guys of those brands? I'm thinking more about La Colombe and Zoa.

Laurent, look, on your seltzer question, we have made and we continue to make great progress against our share goals that we have for hard seltzer. We've grown, as I said earlier, our category share over 50% since the beginning of the year, and we continue to see positive trends. As I said, in the latest IRI read, we're almost at 7.5%. And that's despite limited distribution for Topo Chico and despite the fact that we are cycling about 1 percentage point for Coors Seltzer, now that we're out of Coors Seltzer. And our ambitions just don't stop at double-digit share, right? We've got the national rollout of Topo Chico coming as well as some really great innovation in both of our seltzers and some of which we've announced and some of which we haven't. And then we already obtained share in a number of states and in a number of key retailers. In Canada, we have almost hit our 10 share goal already with Vizzy and Coors Seltzer. And we've got the same innovation and Topo Chico coming in the pipeline next year as well. So we're -- as I said, we're working hard and we're making real progress against our seltzer goals, and we love our differentiated brands that we've got in that space. And as far as beyond beer is concerned, it was 2 million cases, and that was just the non-alc space, Laurent. So we've got -- the Latin American business is growing very, very, very well despite some of the coronavirus challenges that they've got down there. And that operates in the above-premium space. Within the non-alc space, we haven't disclosed the economics of our agreement with both of those companies. But you can rest assured, we wouldn't do it if it wasn't profitable and as the business expands, so we start getting scale for brands like Zoa and for La Colombe.

The next question is from Bryan Spillane of Bank of America.

Gavin and Tracey, I just have -- I guess, just a question around marketing, just 2 points that I'd like you to cover if you can. One is just with the step-up in marketing investments this year. Are we now at a place where this is a good level, meaning the reinvestment has been made, and this is a good run rate? Or is there room or opportunity to increase that marketing investment more beyond '21? And then just with Coors Light specifically, Gavin, can you talk about in the U.S. given the investments you're making there, just kind of where you stand in terms of, I guess, share of voice relative to maybe some of its direct competitors because it appears that you're gaining more impressions or you have more impressions, but just wanted to see if that was accurate.

Bryan, look, I mean, we obviously continue to believe deeply in the power of investing behind our brands to drive awareness and increased consideration, attract new consumers into our space. And we've aggressively shifted our media spend over the past few years to channels where our consumers are. So that would be the digital space. And if you go back a few years, our spend in that area, I wouldn't say -- I wouldn't use the word minimal, but it was not a lot. And we spent more than half of our marketing spend in those channels at this point in time. We will continue to invest what we believe is the right amount of marketing behind our brands. And if you remember, when we announced the revitalization plan, we said we wanted to spend more behind our core brands Miller Lite and Coors Light. Coors Light In both the U.S. and in Canada and in Europe, behind our brands like Carling and Ožujsko and Staropramen, Pravha and so on. And so we intend to do that. And we actually -- we are seeing the benefits of that. I mean we -- I've talked a lot about how we feel about Coors Light, and we're seeing very strong performance out of that brand, driven by the success of our Made to Chill program. So yes, based on the strong performance, the confidence that we've got in the campaign and the brand, we will continue to fuel their momentum with ongoing media support. I think that was -- I think that were the questions that I covered, Tracey. Yes.

Yes. I was -- just to be clear, in terms of the marketing, like the step-up in marketing investment that's happened since you announced the revitalization plan, we're pretty close to that stepped-up level now. Now whether you invest more or not maybe a function of just where the business is going, but the -- that initial sort of bump is now going to be in the base as we exit '21.

Per hectoliter, it will be a little lower this year, right? Because it's still a little bit noisy this year, Bryan, given that in the first part of the year, many of the things that we would sponsor, we didn't because they weren't there. So some of the -- particularly on the local marketing side of life with fares and festivals and some of the sporting events in the beginning part of the year weren't there. So I wouldn't say it's a totally clean year, but we have stepped up our marketing spend this year. We have stepped it up in Q3, and we will step it up in Q4 as well.

Our next question comes from Kevin Grundy of Jefferies.

Great. Gavin, bit of a longer-term question building on some of the themes that you've talked about, but specifically, how you're defining success in the U.S. over the next 3 to 5 years? So through the revitalization program, you're clearly doing a lot of the right things and seeing tangible results, which is encouraging, emphasizing beyond beer. I think you said the above premium is now 25% of the portfolio, and that grew nicely in the quarter, which is great. The cross current, of course, is the leverage to economy, which continues to have demand headwinds, Light continues to face demand headwinds. Although to Bryan's question a moment ago, the market share trends with Coors Light have been encouraging. So years ago, I think the company put a stake in the ground and indicated it could get back to flat volumes in the U.S. I think it's -- the decision was made to kind of subsequently walk back that target. But as we sit here today, what objective measures would you like investors to anchor to in terms of how you're defining success in the U.S. over the next 3 to 5 years?

Kevin, yes, you're bringing out a statement that I made, I think in 2015, about being flat in volume and growth. And obviously, our revitalization plan, our focus is on revenue, not necessarily volume. And the quality of our revenue and changing the shape of our portfolio is what is important to us now. So for me, what success looks like over the short, medium and long term is that we're driving sustainable top line revenue growth and at the same time, driving our profits. So it's not an either or for us, it's a both end. And we're going to do that, as I've said, by focusing in on our core so that would be Miller Lite and Coors Light. And we've talked a bit about the success of how we're doing with the Coors Light. And in particular, in Canada and in the U.S. but also our core brands in our European markets. I mean a real success story for me is what the team have done with Ožujsko in Croatia. It was a brand that was in long-term decline, and they've turned that around and have been growing it nicely behind our increased focus behind core, changing the shape of our portfolio at the above premium levels was our second priority. And the third priority of beyond beer is coupled with above premium, right, because we're only going into above premium beyond beer areas. So whether it's the success of our efforts in seltzers or new brands like Madre and Pravha in Europe or Blue Moon Belgian White and Light Sky in the United States with Zoa and La Colombe. I'd like to see the shape of our above premium portfolio to obviously be bigger than 25%. We've got an internal goal yet, which we haven't shared externally. But obviously, we would like to see that grow to a higher level. So at its highest level, top line, bottom line, sustainable growth and a changed portfolio shape defined success for us, Kevin. Given everything that we've experienced over the last 2 years, I'm very pleased with the progress that the team has made overall against our revitalization plan. If you you'd ask me if I would be happy, we are where we are in the sort of first months of the gloom of the pandemic, I would have taken it in the heat beat, and we're in a good place.

The next question comes from Kaumil Gajrawala of Credit Suisse.

Gavin, if I may ask you to maybe just simplify for myself and for investors, you kind of open talking about the success of a lot of these innovations. Can you maybe aggregate them and talk about how much they collectively contributed to your growth? I think you said 2 million cases for soft drinks, but maybe at Topo Chico and Yuengling and some of these other things in terms of how much they're contributing. The other thing you kind of mentioned at the very beginning was much of the volume decline is linked to your intentional decision to de-prioritize a series of some premium products. Can you talk about how much of a drag that was if you were to add that all up, and that could help us get an understanding of how the underlying business is doing.

Sure. Kaumil, let me try and answer that without actually giving you all about brand volumes because we don't do that. But let me start off by saying that the -- our share loss per IRI in the third quarter was down 90 basis points. 80 basis points of that was economy. So 90% of our volume losses or reduction, should I say, is economy. Most of that or large part of that is very deliberate decisions that we've made to simplify the portfolio. So maybe that will help just the start. 90% of the...

That was for share, right? Not for volume share, not for absolute numbers, just to make sure I heard that right, 90% of the volume share was linked to the economy side.

It was. And 80 basis points of the 90 basis points in share we lost would have been economy. And 90% of our U.S. volume losses was economy. So I think it's safe to say we can say most of it, right? From an individual performance point of view, we're not going to break out every single volume element of our above premium portfolio. But we've got real pockets of strength and growth in our Latin American business, which is above premium. Sometimes that can be -- it depends whether it's export or license. Certainly, export is performing particularly well for us. Zoa is -- and our non-alc space is also relatively low base. So a large chunk of that 2 million cases is all incremental, which still relatively small, but growing particularly strongly Kaumil. From a Yuengling point of view, from a third quarter point of view, it was really just in the market for months, right? And we don't obviously take all of that volume into our business because we're in a joint venture with the Yuengling family. But our U.S. above premium was up single digits in Q3. And so the strategy is coming together, Kaumil, that's what I would tell you.

Our next question comes from Chris Carey of Wells Fargo Securities.

Gavin, Tracey. It's following a recent line of questioning just around the economy SKUs and how you see the mix of the portfolio evolving over time and the focus on value over volume and how that can play out in the near term. I guess if you look at your portfolio today and you think about your aspirations for the go forward on getting to a volume growth basis, do you still see aspects of your portfolio, which you potentially need to improve? And I suppose there always are these opportunities, but maybe more strategically. And then if that is the case, do you see the premiumization strategy over time as enough to offset some of these decisions and then it's all sort of connected to the volume dynamic, but the share gains are well taken in some of your most important brands. But I guess the other side of that is just the categories have been under pressure, tough comps, and there are other aspects that are in play there. But do you have any view on where you kind of see category growth going forward? I know it's not something that you can necessarily control, but that is an important dynamic here. So if I put all that together, there's this dynamic around the portfolio, how you see it today. But as premiums issued could be enough to offset future decisions and just maybe your latest thoughts on the category, the categories which you play would be helpful.

Chris, look, I mean, from our perspective, we think we've made the right move in the economy space to reduce complexity in really focusing on 4 key economy brands. We've long said that we believe all segments all matter to our consumers and the decisions we've made around our economy portfolio are not meant to change that view. So we still have 4 key brands in that -- 4 key economy brands in that space that we're focusing on like Keystone Light, Miller High Life Steel Reserve Alloy and the Tiki series and and we will continue to focus on those brands and having reduced so much complexity out of the economy portfolio. It's allowing both ourselves and our distributors to really hone in and focus on performing very well with those 4 key brands in the economy space. From an overall segment point of view, we believe that seltzers are here to stay. We believe that there is growth to be had in seltzers. We believe that there is strong growth for us in the beyond beer space. We recognize the need to offer products beyond traditional beer, and that's why we're putting so much so much focus on that. We believe that innovation and great innovation around beer and around seltzers will add value to both the category and ourselves over the next 3 years, and that's why we're putting so much emphasis on a really tight and focused innovation portfolio. Remember, Chris, that our focus is not so much volumes, right? It's really about driving revenue and value, and that's what we're doing. So I wouldn't expect our volumes to be positive necessarily because of the actions that we've taken in the economy portfolio. But we think they're right. And then I think to address your other questions. We don't have any plans to do any more big moves in our economy space. We went as deep as we believe is necessary. And now we're going to focus in on the 4 key ones. So thanks, Chris. Sure. I think we have time for one more question. I'm getting that signal.

The final question we have time for comes from Brett Cooper at Consumer Edge Research.

Just Gavin, I'd love to get your perspective on the sustainability or durability of your efforts into the flavored side of the world, whether that be seltzer, whether that be ready-to-drink spirits given, I think, historically, the lack of success that the industry has had. And I know you won't get into talk about other people's brands, but maybe what you see either qualitatively or quantitatively with brands like a Vizzy or Topo Chico relative to some of the F&B products that you've had historically that haven't been able to retain their volume and sales that they initially logged.

Okay. Yes, look, I mean, I think making sure that we've got differentiated brands that the consumer actually wants is a big factor for us, right? Because we do continue to see strong performance from Vizzy. There's lots of distribution runway available for it. It's holding firm as the #4 brand in the space. Topo Chico continues to deliver. It's currently in just 16 markets. And remains the fastest turning brand in Texas, the third fastest turning brand nationally. And we believe there's a very strong opportunity for seltzers to bring Latino drinkers into the space because they're relatively under shared. And we think that Topo Chico plays really, really well into that space given the data that we have. So I think the key for us is differentiation. We've been preaching it for a while now, Brett, we wouldn't have been as successful as we have been in the seltzer space. If our brands weren't differentiated, if there was just a me-too with what was there. And so the brands that we brought are differentiated, that are fast moving, and we have real differentiated innovation coming behind both of those brands in the new year. So we think there is lots of upside for our portfolio in this space. And as I said, we also believe that this is a big segment that is going to be here to stay. And we intend to be a meaningful player in it. Thanks, everybody, for your interest. And if there are any follow-up questions, our Investor Relations team would be happy to take them. Thank you.

This concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.