Earnings Labs

Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. (TDS)

Q4 2008 Earnings Call· Thu, Feb 26, 2009

$44.42

-0.07%

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning, and thank you for holding. My name is Bernice, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Year-End Operating Results Conference Call for Telephone Data Systems and U.S. Cellular. (Operator Instructions). Thank you. Sir, you may begin your conference.

Mark A. Steinkrauss

Management

Alright, this is Mark Steinkrauss. Good morning everybody, and thank you Bernice. Thank you for joining us. With me today in offering prepared comments are Ken Meyers, Executive VP, CFO at TDS; Steve Campbell, Executive VP, Finance, CFO and Treasurer at U.S. Cellular; Jay Ellison, Executive VP and COO at U.S. Cellular; and Bill Megan, Executive VP, Finance and CFO, TDS Telecom. A replay of this teleconference will be available today at 1:00 PM Chicago time and will run through Friday, February 27th. The replay number is 800-642-1687 and the conference ID is 86129191. For international callers, the number is 706-645-9291, same passcode. The purpose of today's call is to discuss the operating results for our company and any other information contained in today's press releases. If you have questions unrelated to the operating results, I would be pleased to respond to them after the call. And I'm available all day today and tomorrow in my office. Additionally, for many years TDS have maintained an open-door policy. If you're in the Chicago area and would like to meet members of the management teams from U.S. Cellular, TDS Telecom, or TDS Corporate the Investor Relations team will try to accommodate you challenge this committee. If you would like to have a meeting telephonically that's fine as well, and you know how to reach us. We have a little bit more in the way of prepared comments today than as the norm, but we'll make sure that we leave plenty of time for Q&A. This call is being simultaneously webcast on the Investor Relations sections of both the TDS and U.S. Cellular websites. The webcast will be available for the next two weeks, after which it will be available in the conference call archive. Please recall archived calls are not updated. Some…

Kenneth R. Meyers

Management

Good morning, and thank you for joining us today. I have a few comments to make about the quarter before turning the call over to the rest of the team who'll cover the operating results. We will then take questions at the end of the prepared remarks. Operating revenues for TDS were up 2% to $1.26 billion with all of the increase at U.S Cellular. Importantly, we saw a sequential pickup in post-paid net adds at U.S. Cellular and continued growth in DSL at TDS Telecom, driven by our continuing focus on customer satisfaction in both businesses. Operating income, not including the impact of impairment charge and losses on asset disposals, was down 34% due principally to higher spending at U.S. Cellular, particularly impacted by equipment subsidies on those new customer activations and retentions. Earnings per share were $0.35 compared to $0.39 at prior year, again that including the impact of the impairment charge and disposals. Jay and Steve will comment on the operating results at U.S. Cellular next. Let me quickly touch a few items covering both the income statements and balance sheet. During the quarter, TDS reported an impairment of licenses of $414 million, approximately 387 million of which was recognized at U.S. Cellular. The impairment charge was non-cash, had no impact on cash flow. There is a paragraph in both press releases of about the impairment and it is discussed at length in the 10-Ks of both companies which we file later today. No doubt, you have read of many Statement of Financial Accounting State of 142 impairment charges by now, as they have been heard by many companies given the decline in the overall economy in further deterioration in these credit and financial markets in the fourth quarter. If you have any questions on this, we'll…

Steven T. Campbell

Management

Thank you, Ken. As you'll see this morning, U.S. Cellular finished 2008 with solid results despite the difficult economic and competitive conditions. Service revenues for the fourth quarter were $977 million, up 2% year-over-year, driven by growth in our customer base and higher ARPU. We ended the year with almost 6.2 million total customers, up 2% from the prior year. Retail growth divisions for the quarter were 352,000, down about 4% year-over-year but up 8% sequentially. Retail net additions for the quarter were 33,000 compared to 64,000 last year, but also up significantly on a sequential basis. In the post-paid segment where we focus, we added 41,000 net customers in the quarter. Our post-paid churn rate was 1.56%, up 6 basis point from last year but down 3 basis points sequentially. ARPU for the quarter was $52.71. This includes the impact of the special $50 service credit offered to customers on higher end rate plans as part of our holiday promotions. For accounting purposes the full credit is treated as a reduction of revenue at the time of sale, rather than over the term of the service contract so this tends to distort the current period ARPU metric. Excluding the impacts of that credit, ARPU for the quarter was $53.68, which was up 2.1% year-over-year. A key driver of our increase in ARPU was data revenues. We continued to see nice growth in this area with data revenues increasing by 32% to $142 million. Data now represents 15% of our total service revenues, up from 11% a year ago, and it still has room to grow. Inbound roaming revenues were $79 million during the quarter, up about 2% year-over-year. And ETC revenues were 27 million about the same as last year. If we had our 2009, the level of ETC…

Jay M. Ellison

Management

Thanks Steve. Obviously, 2008 was a challenging year for us, with respect to both a weak economy and a very competitive industry. Given these challenges, we delivered pretty solid results. As Steve mentioned, service revenues for the full year 2008 grew 7% year-over-year, and ARPU grew by 4%. Both of these positive trends in service revenues and ARPU reflect outstanding growth in our data revenues. During the fourth quarter, gross divisions in our key post-paid segments were 294,000. Although, down by 4% year-over-year, these results represented an improvement of almost 10% from the previous quarter. We believe several factors contributed to this improvement. One factor was a very integrated marketing program that we implemented in December. This marketing program, which we named Calling All Communities invited existing and potential customers to come into any U.S. Cellular store and vote for the school of their choice. The 10 schools receiving the most votes at the conclusion of the contest in January 2009, each would win $100,000. The contest clearly helped to drive increased traffic into our retail stores during December and January. In addition, we believe that the contest will have positive long-term effects. The campaign gave people in our communities a chance to be a part of something bigger than themselves, and our contributions will create educational opportunities for the children in the winning communities. As a result, Calling All Communities is delivering on U.S. Cellular's brand promise to be more than just a phone company to our customers and potential customers. Another factor was the promotion that Steve mentioned, in which we offered a $50 service credit to new customers who activated service between September 12th... December 12th and 31st on a higher rent rate plans. We also offered this service credit to existing customers who are willing to…

Bill Megan

Management

Thank you, Steve and Jay. Good morning, everyone. Result of TDS Telecom continues the trend as we have seen in the recent quarters. We have strong increases in DSL subscribers and data revenues, and we have successfully managed to expenses our whole operating cash flow steady despite a slowing economy and ongoing competition. For the quarter, TDS Telecom's combined dialect and select revenues declined 3%. However, operating cash flow held constant at 75 million in a cash flow margin improved to 36%. Cable competition and wireless substitution continued to impact access line and minutes of huge losses, ILEC physical access lines declined 5.8% year-over-year, excluding the effect of acquisitions, minutes of use declined 7%. With that ILEC voice revenues and access revenues fell 4% and 7% respectively. Again though a positive in the quarter was the increase in ILEC data revenues which grew 19%. Our promotional campaigns for DSL added 4,700 net subscribers sequentially and 30,700 year-on-year excluding acquisitions. Gross ads remained strong at 13,400 for the quarter. Our DSL penetration overall access lines is now at 32%, as up seven percentage points from last year. We are foreseeing a greater percentage of our customers using higher speed service which is contributed to a residential DSL ARPU increase of 9% to $37. 85% of our customers are taking speeds of 1.5 megahertz or greater, and about half are taking speeds from 3 to 6 meg. We've had continued success in selling out triple plan, adding 3,900 net subscribers in the quarter, and we now have 58,500 in total. In our CLEC segment, the current revenue decline reflects their decision to improve profitability by focusing on marketing and sales on some and medium businesses, and remaining are our investment in acquiring residential customers. The number of residential lines in our CLEC…

Mark A. Steinkrauss

Management

Thanks Bill. Bernice, we are ready to start the Q&A period.

Operator

Operator

Alright. Thank you, sir. (Operator Instructions). Our first question comes from Simon Flannery. Your line is open.

Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley

Analyst

Okay. Thank you very much. Good morning. I wonder if you could talk us through what's going on, and you expect on what the Verizon or ALLTEL transaction, how we should be thinking about ARPU impacts in 2009, what's in your guidance for that. And then are you interested potentially in acquiring assets from the divestitures there, or is there any other sort of acquisitions you might be considering this year? Thank you.

Steven Campbell

Analyst

Simon, let me take the first part of your question about roaming, or about revenue and ARPU for next year. As we mentioned both in previous calls, and we have some fairly detailed disclosures in our form 10-K that's being filed today. We do expect to see a decline in roaming revenue in 2009, and that decline could be fairly significant. That decline is reflected in the guidance that you're seeing today. So it's been contemplated in the revenue and ARPU projections that underlie the guidance.

Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley

Analyst

And is sort of, is that immediate ones that close the deal, or is this something that will phase in during the course of the year?

Steven Campbell

Analyst

No, as you know they close the deal, roughly speaking mid-January. And so our expectation is that the... if there is a reduction then it probably occurs over time, ramping up fairly quickly, so that within a few months, we think that we will see the majority of what we would expect to see over time.

Jay Ellison

Analyst

Simon, with respect to M&A activity, I think as we've said in the past, one, the company actively reviews about every opportunity that's out there. I won't comment on any specific transaction. There are no specific transactions that our build into the guidance that we have given you. Any such guidance would be changed once we understand the timing of any transactions that we do. Over the last year, we actually did acquire a couple of small telephone companies after not being in that market for almost four or five years because of we have prices decline. We continued to look at those, and we'll continue to look at about everything and we were on the side also.

Simon Flannery - Morgan Stanley

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Saqlain Shah (ph).

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hi. Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my call. Just to clarify this share repurchase, you purchased about 45 million of the common and about 40 million as the special. Can you maybe just talk about the train of thought of while acquiring, more of a comment and the special and just to clarify also, how much is the balance remaining and, just, part B of that question is Southeastern has mentioned the conversion of the share class. Maybe if you can just talk about that aspect, if there is anything to say. And you just mentioned, as far as an answer for the previous question about the acquisition. So, you are receptive to potential acquisitions in the wireless space, or just want to clarify that point as well. Thank you.

Kenneth Meyers

Analyst

Well, this is Ken Meyers. I am going to try to remember most of those questions.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

I am sorry.

Kenneth Meyers

Analyst

So let's start with, last year we completed the $250 million authorization that actually began in '87. And we initiated a new one in June, I'm sorry in November. Of that November, authorization was $250 million and we acquired or spent about $76 million of that 250.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay

Kenneth Meyers

Analyst

Okay. The authorization allows us to buy common or special common, depending upon market conditions, and what we'd saw in the first one is that, we are able to buy it a little faster, if there... if the prices are close together. But if you sense if there is a substantial discount between one and the other, we will help try to capture that discount. There was a time in the third quarter when the regular common was actually underneath the special common. And so by having the flexibility go either ways, you can continue to buy in whatever stocks that represents the best value at that time. With respect to the acquisitions, we look at both wireline and wireless acquisitions as they come to market. With respect to your question about Southeastern Asset Management commend to 13-D filing, we have a practice of not commenting on SEC filings by institutional shareholders. But we will suggest that, we think that demand is without merit and will vigorously oppose disclosure. Beyond that, the company has nothing more to offer. Did we capture all your questions?

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Yes. Thank you.

Kenneth Meyers

Analyst

Bernice, we'll take the next one.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Michael Bowen.

Michael Bowen - Piper Jaffray

Analyst

Okay. Good morning. Thank you. I was hoping you could give us a little bit more of an idea with regard to Leap's impact. I realized that Leap's impact has been negligible given the fact that it's only... they only recently have come into the Chicago market. But we are seeing that both Leap and TCS are having some impact against Verizon and AT&T. So I'd like to hear your thoughts with regard to some of their plans versus yours. And then as a follow-up to that, can you talk about, I think your $65 plan and a couple of market seems to disappear from the website at one point, and went to a $69 plan. I was... I may have that wrong, but if you could please try to clarify that for us that would be great. Thank you.

Jay Ellison

Analyst

This is Jay. I'll be my best. I don't know, it is a $65 plan. I don't know if how it just cleared from the website that we will double-check on that. That is a $65 unlimited plan. As I mentioned in my formal comments, 95% of our customer base is post-paid. And as we have seen and I also mentioned, clearly they are playing in that pre-paid space. But as we've seen them in many of our... with several of our markets in the past year, we see a little bit of I'd call it market action in the first couple of months. But quite frankly, we also see because of the quality of the networks that we have built out, where we are either number one or two in any one of our markets on network quality, we also see, and particular with customers were with us and less for them for any pricing reason, but also seeing that impact does not last long as they come. We start to see those customers come back.

Michael Bowen - Piper Jaffray

Analyst

And then, I guess one follow-up, I think I heard a comment in the call where you said increases in equipment subsidies have been hurting margins. How should we think about that in 2009? Do you think it's going to get worse before it gets better and any other details around that would be great. Thank you.

Jay Ellison

Analyst

Well, I think we would expect it to stay very competitive. I don't know that we would make a projection about worse, but we would say we're thinking it's going to stay very, very competitive.

Mark Steinkrauss

Analyst

Mike, this is Mark. I'll get back to you on that website. I'm pretty sure the plan is there, but we'll help you navigate through it just to find it. Thanks.

Michael Bowen - Piper Jaffray

Analyst

Alright, thank you.

Mark Steinkrauss

Analyst

Bernice, we'll take the next one.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Patrick Ryan.

Patrick Ryan - Lehman Brothers

Analyst

Good morning, and thanks for taking the question. Regarding the EVDO build out, looks like they are going from 23% at the end of '08 to 60% in '09. Can you give us a sense of first of all, is that kind of the max as far as you're going into lesser territory pretty rule or will you increase that in 2010? And then also, looking at CapEx it's about 15% of your service revenue, can you give us a sense of what amount of that goes for that EVDO build? Thank you.

Kenneth Meyers

Analyst

I think a little bit of the first part of that call, we're continuing to look to make sure we can provide high quality, high speed data services in our market and we evaluate throughout the year and then in our planning process where our net markets would be. But we want to continued to provide a ubiquitous data experience across our footprint over our planning horizon. So that's what we have in the budget for this year as some additional to bring it up about 60% of our sales price. As far as the percent of spend when you look at the total spend Patrick, EVDO is about 10 to 15% of the number.

Patrick Ryan - Lehman Brothers

Analyst

Okay, great. And can you guys give us a quick update on your thoughts on LTE?

Kenneth Meyers

Analyst

We are paying close attention to what's going on in the industry on LTE, where out CTO and his team we're part of some of the standards committees involved with LTE. We think that... I think as you look at probably late '09 maybe '10 we're hearing a lot about LTE launches. I think it's all predicated on the handset availability later in 2010 where we'll look at how we get into that.

Patrick Ryan - Lehman Brothers

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you our next question comes from Phillip Cusick.

Phillip Cusick - Macquarie Research Equities

Analyst

Hi guys. Can you hear me?

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Yeah.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Yeah.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hear you fine.

Phillip Cusick - Macquarie Research Equities

Analyst

Thanks for taking the call. It seems like you just want to get more competitive in the fourth quarter CPGA cranked up a little bit, and ads came through as well. I wonder you have talked about the markets remaining competitive. Are you going to keep your sort of subsidy level and competitive level up here and continue to try and grow despite a slowing market, or are you going to try and ease back and drive a little more cash flow over the next year, just how should I be thinking about the subscriber growth?

Kenneth Meyers

Analyst

Well, it relates to the subsidy, I think as Steve mentioned previously last year I think the equipment pricing be... the equipment is a pricing component today. And --

Phillip Cusick - Macquarie Research Equities

Analyst

Yeah.

Kenneth Meyers

Analyst

And it is the highly where... it is where most of the competition really has been occurring over the last 12 months, and we are going to remain competitive in our equipment pricing to maintain our market position throughout U.S. Cellular footprint. We're not going to back off of that position. We are going to maintain that aggressive posture that we have done year after year after year.

Phillip Cusick - Macquarie Research Equities

Analyst

Okay. And then in terms of pre-paid, you continue to let this doing the lawful little bit. Do you anticipate putting some effort into turning that around, or should we expect that to continue to run off?

Kenneth Meyers

Analyst

Well, as I said we're in the processes of making sure that we have the opportunity to provide a robust pre-paid offering. And there is some more for doing both from an internal system point of view, and that will then allow us to add more features on the pre-paid platform. As I mentioned in my comments, light data. So we can't take advantage of that segment and get our share of that segment. We're not going to take our eyes off the post-paid segment while doing so.

Jay Ellison

Analyst

And Phil I think we talked about the prior quarter, the company outsources it's prepaid billing system product management. And as billing system that we are currently on is a one that is effectively going out of business. So we have to migrate off of that platform onto another one, and that's what's going on in the first half of this year. And until such time as the complete that migration, we have a product that isn't quite as robust as we'd like to make it. So once we get that transition done, then I expect it will be a little bit more active in that segment.

Phillip Cusick - Macquarie Research Equities

Analyst

Okay. So we really shouldn't look for you to ramp-up your competitive level until that that whole migration is done on the prepaid segment?

Jay Ellison

Analyst

On the prepaid segment right.

Phillip Cusick - Macquarie Research Equities

Analyst

Okay. And have you made any progress on deciding on a new post-paid billing platform?

Steven Campbell

Analyst

No.

Jay Ellison

Analyst

Just started down that segment.

Kenneth Meyers

Analyst

Started down that.

Steven Campbell

Analyst

And as Jay said in his prepared comments, we are looking at some major initiatives for next year... in current year actually now, 2009. But one of those major initiatives is a new operating point of sale system which wraps in the billing part of that. So we think it's going to be a multi-year project, but it's going to be kicking off in a big way this year.

Phillip Cusick - Macquarie Research Equities

Analyst

Got it. Okay guys. Thanks a lot.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Will Power.

William Power - Robert W. Baird

Analyst

Hi, great. Thanks. Yeah, couple of questions, maybe just following up on that last question. You talked earlier about some of the new initiatives in 2009, and could I guess CRM and the point of sale, systems helping to drive long-term growth. Can you give you give us any sense about the magnitude of those cost increases or cost associated with that might be in '09 and how much of that might be non-recurring?

Jay Ellison

Analyst

It's Jay, Willy. We are currently in the process of scoping these things out, trying to get things inline so we know what the cost associated with this are. We know we need them, we needed accomplish these things. And so it's premature for us to get into the end of the cost side of this.

David Wittwer

Analyst

Well, our guidance has dollars built into it well. And the issue is that you try to call it non-recurring because these are the multiyear projects. Now, we probably see the same level of spend this year-end and next year, maybe even year after in terms of these projects. So, they are in order gets back once it done, I draw a number of few now and next year you had that back.

William Power - Robert W. Baird

Analyst

Okay. Yeah, that's helpful. And then the second question, I mean clearly very competitive at the high-end subsidies have been an issue for sometime for you all and the industry. But with that said, you all continued to be focused on the smart phone road map. I guess it would be helpful if Dave, if you give us any further details on what that road map might look like going forward to ensure that you stay competitive there at the high end?

David Wittwer

Analyst

Well, we have had our main equipment OEMs, we have a roadmap that probably reflects about 15 months into the future. From a planning perspective, clearly what's on a roadmap today and what ends up out there 15 months now are predicated by a number of things. Quality of the device when its delivered to it, the top run of the device when its delivered to it. Well, we are clearly saying to specifically to your question, in the back half of this year, much more data centric feature rich handsets are going to be delivered at that mix, what I'd call that better and particular best category, where we're also seeing good revenues associated with to the tune of about almost two times when we're seeing on our regular ARPU. But we do think that in the back half of the year, they will take over a big chunk of what we'll be offering in the marketplace. I can't be specific on the models at this time, going for the fact that we are in negotiation around those models as we speak with our OEM.

William Power - Robert W. Baird

Analyst

Okay, great. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Sergey Dluzhevskiy. Sergey Dluzhevskiy - Gabelli & Company: Good morning, guys. Could you talk as little bit about the impact from the economy that you are seeing on the wireless, and on wireline side as well, and then in terms of wireless, how we see them and expect the wireless industry in general to be in '09 and '10?

Mark Steinkrauss

Analyst

Sergey, I got to stop here. We can't pick you up. Can you speak a little louder? Sergey Dluzhevskiy - Gabelli & Company: Sure.

Mark Steinkrauss

Analyst

Thank you. Sergey Dluzhevskiy - Gabelli & Company: Can you hear me now?

Mark Steinkrauss

Analyst

Yes, that's better. Sergey Dluzhevskiy - Gabelli & Company: Okay. Just the question. In terms of impact of the economic slowdown on the wireless and on the wireline side, what are we seeing with, are you expecting in '09? And also, and just one question on the wireless. You've talked a little bit about the impact from Leap. Can you talk a little bit about the potential impact or some impacts that you're already seeing from the Sprints $50 pre-paid offering over the next network?

Steven Campbell

Analyst

Yeah, I'll take that latter part. The boost offerings, I think you're referring to that just kind of rolled out. Again, back there, I think the earlier question about only 5% of our base is pre-paid. We really have not seen anything major at this moment that gives us a concern. We continue, as Ken mentioned, I had mentioned in my comments, we continued to look at the investments and the platform change out increasing. So we have a robust product offering for the back half of the year. We need to put the right amount of focus against that platform and net offering at the point in time that we migrate over to it.

Kenneth Meyers

Analyst

In terms of the general economy, I think we're all aware of the weakness in the economy now as the retail business, we're susceptible for that like all retail businesses. When you look back on the fourth quarter, we actually did see slowness in traffic in the stores early in the quarter, but then through some of the programs that we've described, calling all communities and the service credit and so forth, we saw a nice pickup in store traffic, and you've seen the results in our ad. And that's continued in the early part of this year. Other areas that we're monitoring closely, of course is churn. Our churn rates have held up nicely. They have been pretty flat both year-to-year and sequentially. We are monitoring DSO, day sales and bad debt expense. And so far everything is right in line with our business plan. So can't predict the future, but steady as you go right now. Sergey Dluzhevskiy - Gabelli & Company: Bill Megan I think Sergey asked that question also in the context of the wireline business. Do you have any comments you want to add?

Bill Megan

Management

Yeah just very quickly, as I said in that the prepared remarks, we are very cognizant of the economy and consumer behavior as well as pressure on businesses. So what we're seeing in the ILEC business, in the fourth quarter you saw a line loss pick up and that is primarily a gross ads problem, gross debts were down considerably in the fourth quarter. So what do we do about it. Well this is... all I know just quickly review right. We are very cognizant of the pocket book and so we're moving to introduce product sets that are focused on affordability. So as I said, we're focused on products that on the data side are in the range of 1.5 to 10 meg service and we've got special promotions underway. We have new service bundles that effectively are at package for any purse, to borrow a phrase so that we can meet customers need, keep them on our network and meet their budget. We had renewed, we invigorated our triple-play. As I said we can with additional work extending their 999 offer for another six months, so it's now a full year. We've augmented that with the TV and in exchange we get a two-year commitment. We have armed our sales team with the ability to extend promotions, our version of naked DSL to keep them on our network. And then I talked about in the commercial segment, we have a very robust product offering in managed IP that is designed to meet the tough economy here. The businesses that would be in the market for spaced IP PBX don't need to make that big cash outlay. They can sign on for our service. We give them a very robust feature-rich service and they just pay the monthly rate. We manage it, we maintain it, we inherit all that fluorescence risk and we think that will be a very robust offering in this environment.

Mark Steinkrauss

Analyst

Alright thanks Sergey Dluzhevskiy - Gabelli & Company: Thank you guys.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Kevin Roe.

Kevin Roe - Roe Equity Research

Analyst

Thank you. If I take the midpoint of your wireless guidance. I believe it implies EBITDA will be down ballpark 10% and your EBITDA margin will be down lower 200 basis points. You mentioned some of these new initiatives, the new billing platform, electronic data, and EVDO and those are... we should look at that you said as one-time costs. But how should we look at the margin pressure of '08 versus '09? Is that mostly on the handset side... the handset subsidies or is it mostly the new initiatives, any color that would be great?

Kenneth Meyers

Analyst

Yeah it's actually a combination of things but the items that you didn't mention that I would highlight for you because I think its potentially significant is roaming. We've said that we expect a significant decline in roaming revenue in 2009 and as I'm sure you appreciate roaming revenue is fairly high margin revenue. So that's the factor, certainly the enablement initiatives that we've talked about equipment pricing are other factors that are in to it. But roaming is a significant one that you shouldn't side out.

Kevin Roe - Roe Equity Research

Analyst

Would you say roaming is the biggest chunk of the margin pressure in '09 versus 08?

Kenneth Meyers

Analyst

I would.

Kevin Roe - Roe Equity Research

Analyst

Very good. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Salvatore Manuel (ph).

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hi, thanks. Good afternoon, everyone. So turning to the last question about margins, the margins in there looks like for this year your guidance is sort of 21 to 24 point something percent in that range. Now, it's really a question... structurally, your market has always been lower than you would've found. I always struggled with why. And it is not just scale, there would have been smaller players that have had margins that have been in their 30s and even low 40s. And, so is it just the competition in your particular markets? You still have markets where... because they were started up later, holding down the total consolidated margin that we see, or is it something structural on the expense side, or is it that revenues per sub could be $5 higher in some fashion. What is... structurally, what is the issue and why are your margins... you figured about talking about a few points. So why aren't they 32 or 34% or something?

Kenneth Meyers

Analyst

Hi Sal (ph) this is Ken. I'll start off...

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Hi, Ken. Thanks.

Kenneth Meyers

Analyst

Probably get some other help around the table, if you look through it. First of all, if you look at ARPU, it seems that the ultimate customer while not only have been growing very nicely over the flat fours years, it is right in line with about everybody else, number one.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Alright.

Kenneth Meyers

Analyst

Number two; yeah, we've got a portfolio. And that portfolio has some of the older markets that has got much higher markets offset by some that are closer to breakeven or some that are still in their very early growth stages, and so they are actually consumed margins, okay.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Alright

Kenneth Meyers

Analyst

And third, I think a key is, we have a high touch business model that is all based upon customer satisfaction, the value of keeping the customers that we already have. That high touch has cost associated which we think pay for themselves over and over in maintaining high customer loyalty and actually you are creating more of supportive models outside marketing efforts.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. And I think the last part, like a business strategy approach explains it, but it doesn't explain it. I mean it does, but it doesn't, because either other low churn rates in the industry. Obviously, scales are different, but margins are vastly different. I mean, I think I understand the high-touch business model, but is there something within that?

Kenneth Meyers

Analyst

I think it's a combination of all the factors that I just mentioned, they should all contributes.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

I mean, if would have to attribute, what's most important factor do you think?

Kenneth Meyers

Analyst

I don't know, as I sit here today. They are kind of right around 1, 2, or 3 points.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Alright. They will continue to remain a mystery. Thank you

Kenneth Meyers

Analyst

Thank you

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Martin Rower (ph).

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Thank you. I just want to clarify something, you mentioned the doubling of the ARPU for the average smart phone user, and you mentioned that over the past year, I think in prior presentations, the cost to subsidize that equipment, that's a 100% expense up front, is that correct?

Kenneth Meyers

Analyst

Yes, that's correct.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Okay. So that means that's obviously a factor as you grow the number of smart phone customers as to why the current margins maybe suffering a little bit but you get it back in more revenue... much more revenue over the future?

Kenneth Meyers

Analyst

Yes, especially the faster they grow, I think as Steve pointed out, the smart phone sales tripled year-over-year in the fourth quarter, so it's a bigger impact and you have to go all that on the far end. So as you see great growth in data as a result of that.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Exactly. Okay, I just wanted to make sure I understood that correctly. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Rollins.

Michael Rollins - Citigroup Smith Barney

Analyst

Hi, good afternoon. Just a quick follow up. I'm curious as you look at customer churn, is there a way to think about the ageing of your churn. In other words, how are customers behaving that have been with you for let's say a year two years or more versus those that you're recently getting and as the markets go in a little bit more data-centric, are you seeing that experience shift at all? Thanks.

Bill Megan

Management

We really don't see a humongous difference between the ageing if you will of the customers on the churn factor. I think forward, to your last part of the question about data customers and their experience, clearly that's part of the reason when it came to accelerating or would they be investors in EVDO, so we can ensure that data, the experience is like very good competitive experience for them to have. I also think back to Ken's point a little bit earlier. We take a lot of time in training of our associates the roll out of the data product or a data handset, so that that experience is good for that customer at the point of sale. As the matter of fact a lot of what we'll look at for this year as we think about that roll out will include some changes in our strategy about how we really pick up their training program for our sales associate. So, as Steve said, we have we have seen a rapid growth in the fourth quarter on the smart phones and the high-end data-centric devices. We have seen there churn any difference than the other I think we are still very at 159, we still maintain a hell of a good churn level.

Michael Rollins - Citigroup Smith Barney

Analyst

Thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

That's the last of our questions sir.

Kenneth Meyers

Analyst

Let's thank Bernice; thank you for monitoring the call. And thank you everybody for joining us. I will be available the rest of the day if you have any additional questions.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. That concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.