Robert Mehrabian
Analyst · Raymond James. Please go ahead.
Not specific, what we have Chris is we know what our large customers on the exploration side are telling us, they are basically delaying of new vessels, other companies that we don’t do business with are retiring vessels. So there we have a pretty good idea of what that market is going to be like, it could be done as much as 35% year-over-year. Remembering that it was a $100 million in 2013 and closer to 80 this 2014 and other 30% decline would bring it down to $60 million, so you are going from 100 to 60 over two years. The flip side is as I said, our oil production so far is holding up very well, and part of that you ask about what kind of price to oil. Part of that is that different sources of oil and gas recovery have different price breakeven points depending on whether its shallow water that would be the lowest, onshore, conversational, it could be maybe $40, deep-water probably over $60, but then when you get to shale oil you are talking about $70, could be as high as $100. So what we're seeing is changes in the dynamics of the businesses the shale oil businesses are reducing their cost very fast, because that’s not too hard to do, and you will pick up your trucks and move them and stop the drilling. And where as in deep water the projects are planned over a 10-year period and larger oil companies have seen oil prices go up and down over the two decades and they can’t plant immediate price reduction, because they are spending huge amounts of money. For example, in the Combo Offshore Award that we got late in 2014 that is a $10 billion investment and cant shut that ticket off or turn it down. So they have a much longer view of the market than we do, and even as early as November, the quest subsea database is projecting increases in – significant increases in the production in the next six or seven years, as much as 70 or more percent. So, it's very hard to credit. I think in the deep sea oil production, we feel comfortable that oil prices are not going to affect them very quickly. Having said that, I'll repeat remarks that I made before in the last earnings call, which is it's my personal view that oil consumption per capita oil consumption is going to increase, especially as we see recoveries in the foreign markets because their capital consumption is several, four or five times less than ours or other for developed countries, and in the long-term, oil prices supplies are not going to be as abundant as they are today compared to consumption, so I think in the long-term oil prices have to moderate upwards and that's my prospective. I may be wrong, but I don't think so.