Earnings Labs

Teck Resources Limited (TECK)

Q1 2020 Earnings Call· Tue, Apr 21, 2020

$57.85

-3.94%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

+3.12%

1 Week

+15.04%

1 Month

+34.33%

vs S&P

+26.33%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to Teck Resources Q1 2020 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are on a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. This conference call is being recorded on Tuesday, April 21, 2020. I would now like to turn the conference call over to Fraser Phillips, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Strategic Analysis. Please go ahead.

Fraser Phillips

Management

Thanks very much, Helena, and good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for Teck’s first quarter 2020 results conference call. Before we begin, I would like to draw your attention to the caution regarding forward-looking statements on slide 2. This presentation contains forward-looking statements regarding our business. This slide describes the assumptions underlying those statements. Various risks and uncertainties may cause actual results to vary. Teck does not assume the obligation to update any forward-looking statement. I would also like to point out that we use various non-GAAP measures in this presentation. You can find the explanations and reconciliations regarding these measures in the Appendix. With that, I will turn the call over to Don Lindsay, our President and CEO.

Don Lindsay

Management

Thank you, Fraser, and good morning, everyone. Well, these certainly continue to be difficult times not just in the mining sector but for all of us as we navigate the evolving COVID-19 challenge both personally and professionally. Like you, we are continuing to work from home, so the entire senior management team is dialed in remotely this morning, so please bear with us in the event there are any hiccups. We last spoke during our Investor and Analyst Day Conference Call on April 1, just about three weeks ago, and that included a summary of our COVID-19 response measures, some initial highlights from our first quarter results, and of course, our QB2 project update. Today, we will focus on updates from the full results from our first quarter as well as some additional detail on our COVID-19 protocols and the impact of COVID-19 on our operations. I’ll begin on slide 3 with first quarter highlights followed by Ron Millos, our CFO, who will provide additional color on our financial results. We will conclude with a Q&A session with Ron and I and additional members of our senior management team would be happy to answer any questions. Our focus is on managing the risks around COVID-19 and assuring that we have the necessary measures in place to safeguard our people and our local communities. The global health situation posed by COVID-19 is unlike anything previously faced by companies, by families and by communities. The scope and severity of this pandemic requires all of us to step up and do our part. And we are proud to have announced last week the creation of a $20 million fund to support the COVID-19 response and future recovery efforts. Nothing is more important than the health and safety of our employees, our contractors and…

Ron Millos

Management

Great. Thanks, Don. I’ll start by addressing the changes in our cash position during the first quarter on slide 12. We generated CAD 279 million in cash flow from operations. The net change in debt was CAD 220 million and we received CAD 61 million in proceeds from investments and other assets. We spent CAD 818 million on capital projects and CAD 172 million on our stripping activities. And we purchased approximately CAD 16.3 million Class B shares under our normal course issuer bid for CAD 27 million in the quarter. And that completes the CAD 1 billion of share buybacks previously authorized by our board. We paid CAD 109 million in interest and finance charges, repaid CAD 43 million of lease liabilities, and we paid CAD 27 million on the regular-based dividends. After these and other minor items, we ended the quarter with cash and short-term investments of CAD 219 million. One other note about our quarterly financial results, not on the slide, but after adjusting for the Fort Hills impairment, our overall effective tax rate on profit before tax was 39% in the quarter, and that's above our longer term general expectation of 35% to 37%. And that's primarily due to the losses at Fort hills and Trail, which are not subject to mining taxes. If we remain in a lower operating margin environment and continue to experience losses at Fort Hills, we would expect our effective tax rate on profit before taxes to remain a little bit emulated above those normal expected levels. Turning to COVID-19 expenditures on slide 12. We previously mentioned that we were reviewing the accounting treatment of these expenditures that are incremental in nature and incurred specifically because of COVID-19. So no COVID-19 specific expenditures will be charged against our capital projects as…

Don Lindsay

Management

Well, thanks, Ron. As I said at the outset, this continue to be unprecedented times that we're living in. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant negative impact on the global economy and commodity markets, and the outlook remains uncertain. Our focus is on managing the risks around COVID-19 and ensuring that we have the necessary measures in place to safeguard our people and our local communities. While our COVID-19 response has temporarily reduced production at some of our operations, all of our managed sites are currently operating and that is acknowledging that Antamina as a joint venture with BHP, Glencore, and Mitsubishi. There has been no material impact on sales or shipments of tech products to the COVID-19 so far, but there is a risk that sales volumes could decline significantly in Q2 following the dramatic slowdown that we've seen in global economic activity. And despite the emergence of COVID-19, there were a number of positives including a very strong finish to the quarter’s steelmaking coal and very importantly the completion of the Elkview plant expansion, which sets us up in really good position for decades to come. At the same time, we continue to progress our four key priorities, and those are the QB2 project which will help rebalance our portfolio, RACE21 which will set us up to transform the company for the long term and improve productivity and reduce costs. Neptune, which will secure a long-term, low cost and reliable supply chain solution for our steelmaking coal business and lower costs for decades to come. And finally, our CERP, the company-wide cost reduction program with an increase target of a $1 billion. We have a very strong financial position and we are well positioned to weather this storm and the challenges around COVID-19. And with that, we'd be happy to answer any questions and as a reminder we are all on phone lines from home so please bear with us if there's a delay while we sort out who will answer your question. So, back to you, operator.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The first question is from Orest Wowkodaw with Scotia Bank. Please go ahead.

Orest Wowkodaw

Analyst

Hi. Good morning. Don, I'm wondering if you can give us some more color on your comments about significantly lower potential coal sales in Q2 and that you're seeing customers defer delivery of volume. Can you give us a sense of A, how many customers – are you just seeing the beginning of that or are you seeing substantial amount? And the language you're obviously seems a lot different than what we heard three weeks ago and I'm curious how much of that might be related to the India being closed as well. Thank you.

Don Lindsay

Management

Yeah. I know this is an important question and you are correct that it has changed a fair bit in the last three weeks particularly in the last two weeks and the conversations are ongoing. I'm going to turn it over to Real Foley in a minute. But just a perspective on this, it does feel similar to one of the quarters that we had during 2008-2009 and it lasted for a while the customers went through the depth of demand for their own products came back quickly. We don't know how much volume might be deferred. Let’s not talk about cancellation really, it’s deferral to the quarter, but, you know, it all kind of cascades through for the subsequent quarters. And we won't know for certain exactly which ships will come when or for a few weeks really although it happens throughout the quarter. So, unfortunately, we can't give guidance on it. I know you're looking for a better sense for the volumes involved. And at this stage, it's very difficult to answer that. But Real, over to you for a little bit more color on the discussions.

Robin Sheremeta

Analyst

All right. Thanks, Don. So, Orest, we are seeing hot metal capacity cuts around two-thirds of what has been announced to-date. It's concentrated in Europe, the US, and India. So, as you said, India is definitely part of this. But also with the rapid spread of COVID-19, there is more countries that have implemented lockdown measures. And as Don said during the presentation, the global economic activity has slowed with lower demand for a number of products that steel goes into. Recently, we've seen announcement of BF, blast furnace closures or reduced hot metal production in other countries, that includes Japan, Brazil, and South Africa as well. And so far, the total hot metal cuts represents somewhere around 78 million to 80 million tonnes on an annualized basis. So, that is around 15% or so of the blast furnace capacity outside of China and Russia.

Orest Wowkodaw

Analyst

Thank you. And, Don, when you say it feels like 2008, 2009, and when I go back and look, it looks like in Q1 2009 your coal sales bottomed at 3.7 million tonnes. Is that – I realized you can't give guidance but is that the sort of goal post on one end of the spectrum might be realistic?

Don Lindsay

Management

Yeah. I’d say yes. I mean it’s possible. I don’t think so but the way you phrase it as a goal post on one end of the spectrum. Yeah. Those kind of things are possible. And it doesn’t mean that those sales are lost forever. They tend to come back but in terms of the timing of deliveries, that kind of stuff can happen. Yeah.

Orest Wowkodaw

Analyst

Great. Thanks so much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Carlos De Alba

Analyst

Thank you. Good morning. So the question is maybe can you give us some qualitative comments on the cost performance that you expect in Q2? You discussed the impact on sales volumes both in zinc and coal in the press release. But so plus so -- or presumably your cost also won’t come down. How do you see that part of the equation with these volumes but do fix cost potentially offset by progress in CRP and RACE21 progress?

Don Lindsay

Management

Yeah. There are different parts to that question. So what I’m going to suggest is Robin Sheremeta, why don’t you start with cost in coal and then, Bill, you follow up on copper and zinc. So, Robin, over to you first.

Robin Sheremeta

Analyst

Sure. It’s, I guess, in one sense we’re fortunate that we spent the last few years structurally changing the coal business unit. But there’s a number of things that will play out through 2020 and at the least to which is the declining strip ratio. So if you remember back in 2019, we were operating around $11.4 million to $1 million, will be lower this year around 10.7 and as we’re going to 2021, we’re going to be around 10 to 1. So, we’re setting the business unit up to how an improved cost structure around the strip ratio itself. Don mentioned closure of Cardinal River. We’re actually closing that early so it’s going to be shut down around the end of June. We’ve got the $9 million completed in Elkview. So, you’ve got a structural change around the operating costs within the business unit as well that's kicking in. And then, with RACE21, you’ve mentioned that as well, that strategy will be focused on some of the shortest-term, highest-value projects which will likely be focused on the plant operations. So, we'll see pretty good payback on that. And then, just around CRP, this is what we're good at. In coal mining, we go through ups and downs, and we've demonstrated in the past we get into a low cycle like this, we're able to cut spending, And that was reflected in a large part in Q1 when we saw the spending or the costs actually quite a bit lower than we anticipated or as signaled earlier in the year. So, we're pretty well set up to take this line right now.

Carlos De Alba

Analyst

And Dale?

Robin Sheremeta

Analyst

So, Dale.

Dale Andres

Analyst

I can make a couple of quick comments on the copper and zinc. I think the question was specific to zinc, but I just want to remind that our quarterly zinc costs do depend on our lead sales. And typically, those are stronger as the year progresses and start in Q2, and particularly stronger in the Q3 and Q4 although we have suspended guidance as we talked about previously. But CRP and RACE21 are also being driven throughout the copper and zinc operations. And I was quite pleased with both copper and zinc’s sort of cost performance in Q1. And we're going to continue to drive that as we go forward.

Carlos De Alba

Analyst

Great. Thank you. And just a follow-up or I guess an additional question on the disbursements of QB2 financing. Has there been any alterations to the schedule that was presented earlier for the remaining of the $3.9 billion that the party still needs to spend?

Don Lindsay

Management

I just wanted to be clear on the question, any changes to the schedule on our project finance, is that what you're referring to?

Carlos De Alba

Analyst

Right. Exactly. The disbursement of those – of that

Don Lindsay

Management

Oh, disbursement? Okay. Ronald or Scott Wilson, over to you.

Ron Millos

Management

Scott, do you want to take that one?

Scott Wilson

Analyst

Sure. It’s Scott Wilson. The spending profile on QB2 will be somewhat impacted by the construction suspension. We updated the project finance lenders on this a couple of weeks. And over the balance of 2020, we think that there will be something like $200 million less drawn on the project finance facility than pre-suspension. So, that reflects procurement activities continuing and payments or commitments that have already been made. But other than that, we will continue to utilize the project finance facility as intended.

Carlos De Alba

Analyst

All right. Thank you very much. Good luck.

Don Lindsay

Management

And I just want to go back to Orest’s question earlier and while we talk about the tonnage sales in Q1 of 2009, the equivalent quarter, if you like, to outcome in Q2 and that number is possible, the most important number to watch is really the hot metal production that Réal Foley talked about. And that at this stage, is down about 15% outside of China. China, of course, is back basically to 100% steel production and we do sell to China as well though not as much as we used to. We could choose to sell more there. But I think those are the more important driving factors in trying to make and educate I guess on what will happen in Q2.

Ron Millos

Management

And one thing maybe I could add also, Don, is we also need to look on the supply side for steel-making coal. So currently, the supply disruption reduction or closures that have been announced add up to somewhere around 38 to 40 million tonnes. So, that is again outside of China. If you factor in China, the Mongolian exports into China are down 5 million tonnes year-to-date March. And the domestic China production of coking coal is also down 5 million tonnes year-to-date.

Carlos De Alba

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

And the next question is from Curt Woodwort with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead.

Curt Woodwort

Analyst

Yeah. Hi. Good morning. Question on the coal side, I wonder if you could comment a little bit about sort of tactically how you're managing the volume flow. So, my understanding is that you don't have a lot of spot market sales. Is there an opportunity to try to divert some of your traditional contract customer base into China or other avenues? And then, can you give us a sense for kind of what your year-on-year shipment rates look like today or kind of what April is at?

Don Lindsay

Management

Okay. Real, over to you.

Real Foley

Analyst

All right. So, of course we are in the market every day. As you can imagine, Curt, with global economic activity slowing, there is less demand on the spot market as well. Now, we continue to talk to customers. We have customers in all markets including China, India, Eastern Europe, Western Europe, pretty much in all the areas of the world, the Americas also. So, it is a challenging time. It is difficult right now. Specifically, with respect to Q2, when we look at volume, April is looking pretty good. But as we start to receive notification from customers, we could see the impact later on in the quarter, maybe in May or June, but it is too early to say because when you look at how the shipping world works for coal, denomination for vessels are somewhere around two weeks or so prior to vessel loading. So, it is uncertain and a little bit unclear right now.

Curt Woodwort

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Gordon Lawson with Paradigm Capital. Please go ahead.

Gordon Lawson

Analyst

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. Can you talk about the timing expected for the remaining permits for the water treatment facilities at Fording River and what work remains for Elkview based to SRF?

Don Lindsay

Management

Robin Sheremeta, over to you.

Robin Sheremeta

Analyst

Yeah. Just I have to ask you to repeat the first one. Just on the Elkview SRF, that project will – is under construction now and it will be completed by the fourth quarter of 2020, but I didn’t quite understand the first question.

Gordon Lawson

Analyst

You talked about those remaining permits for the treatment facilities at Fording River. Is there any guidance you can provide with respect to timing?

Robin Sheremeta

Analyst

While the permits are – they just go through stages. So, there’s the construction permit and then there's an operating permit. So, the timing on those are really just staged around the progression of the project itself. So, presumably, the timing on the actual operation permits will occur in 2021. So, we’re just working through construction now.

Gordon Lawson

Analyst

Okay. And as a follow-up, the strip ratio was quite high this quarter, when can we expect this to come down to the 10 times range?

Robin Sheremeta

Analyst

Yeah. Well, through 2020, the current mine plant has us around 10.7, so that will be the average across the year. So, you saw higher strip ratio in the first quarter simply because of the logistic challenges we had through January and February. And so our production levels were quite a bit lower than what we had anticipated. So, that affected strip ratio in a short term and that will balance out over the next three quarters. So, you think about it in a sense we got ahead of stripping in the first quarter and that’s move out for the rest of the year. We didn’t expect the average for the year to be around that 10.7 range. And then following that as we progress into 2021, the strip ratio does dropped to around 10:1 on average.

Gordon Lawson

Analyst

And Robin, 10 – that 10.7 compares to as an 11.4 last year?

Robin Sheremeta

Analyst

It was 11.4 in 2019.

Gordon Lawson

Analyst

Okay. Excellent. Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Jackie Przybylowski with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Jackie Przybylowski

Analyst

Thanks very much. I just wanted to dig into a little bit the comments that you got in your MD&A on the Elk Valley water quality. So, maybe following up a little bit on Gordon's questions. You've got a note in the MD&A about fish population, this specific kind of trout being affected. And maybe a little bit of a scary sentence at the end where it says that you may face delays in permitting or restrictions on mining activities. Can you give us a little bit more color in terms of like what kind of studies are required to determine the causes of this population decline? And what actually the risks would be to your operations like what would we need to see I guess in terms of the study results for your operations to be impacted? Thanks.

Don Lindsay

Management

Okay. Robin, why don't you start and then you can throw it to whoever you like for the balance.

Robin Sheremeta

Analyst

Sure. Just in – as far as the causation study, that there's a considerable amount of work that has to be done in that area. So, it’s not a simple process to land on a cost. And because we haven’t got a sense of what the outcome that’s going to be, it’s pretty tough to speculate on how we – would we respond to it. So that work continues. There is a incredibly competent team that is working through that. And by the middle of the year, probably closer in the second half, we should have some outcome on those results. I wouldn’t want to speculate on what – how that impacts – how that’s going to impact the operations.

Jackie Przybylowski

Analyst

So, if I could just ask a follow up on that. It’s just to determine that hypothetically, let's say, some activity at the mine or the, say, saturated rock fill treatment or something like that was contributing to this issue, would that be – cause the government to require you to slow mining down or slow processing down?

Robin Sheremeta

Analyst

I think all that is just speculation. To be honest I, until we have an actual cause, some combination of causes, there's no real way of knowing what the response would be.

Jackie Przybylowski

Analyst

I was waiting for that. And then if I can just ask one other question on Antamina. The previous release that you put out had basically said that you're doing a shift change, sanitizing all the work surfaces, and bringing the crews back. This MD&A that you put out today, is a little bit more vague on timing. Has there have been a change in terms of the activities that are required for the miners to return to work? Are you – are you now sort of looped in with the state of emergency legislation in the country or are you still able to return to work as soon – as soon as it’s sanitized and the crews are ready to go?

Robin Sheremeta

Analyst

Dale Andres, over to you.

Dale Andres

Analyst

Yeah. Thanks, Jackie. It is – we basically said it's uncertain at this time because it is going to take a little bit longer. It is take – it did take a little bit longer to demobilize the crews. There still is the state of emergency in effect and that does limit transportation of workers between regions. We have now demobilized all the crews except for we’ll call it a care and maintenance crew or core essential services crew. And we currently have about 400 to 500 people on site. So, we moved about 2,000 people off after initially moving 4,000 people before the original state of emergency. So, we're working through the details of how regional movement of crews. We’re still cleaning the facilities and we do expect it to take a little bit longer, but the exact timing is uncertain.

Jackie Przybylowski

Analyst

Thanks very much.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The next question is from Timna Tanners with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Timna Tanners

Analyst

Great. Thank you, and I hope everyone’s doing all right and healthy. Just wanted to ask a little bit more, I know you suspended guidance, and we've been talking about some specific projects, but if you could talk a little bit on the high level on CapEx on what amount or percent, if you will, could be flexible or could be reassessed if conditions continue to remain depressed? And along those same lines, if you could provide some more color about what you and your partners at Fort Hills are discussing in terms of when and how to make a decision on any further cuts?

Don Lindsay

Management

Okay. On CapEx and I may turn it over to Ron Millos a bit in a minute, but really, the reductions in CapEx are included in our CRP targets and because they have both CapEx and OpEx. And so, we’re going to business by business site and meet with the leaders of each division and we go to what the trade-offs are and sustaining cap or actual enhancement projects whether they can be stopped, deferred, reduced. And then, the total reductions will show up in that CRP number and Ron Millos mentioned that. I’ll just talk to the Fort Hills question first then turn it to you, Ron. On Fort Hills, we are having an ongoing dialogue with the partners, Suncor, the operator of course, and Total, and looking at different options. There are a lot of factors to consider. It’s a complicated decision and the starting point is you have to take a view of what you think oil prices and WCS prices are likely to be and when because if you are looking at reducing production further or going to shut down, then you have to look at winterization cost that would be quite substantial if you are all the way in to sort of the November-December period. So, if you’re going to do that you want to make sure that you're going to be shut down for a long enough period to justify that versus sustaining operating losses on pure barrels operating. So those are the tradeoffs. And if you think that the oil prices is coming back a year or two from now, then you clearly wouldn't do that because there's lots of risk associated with it as well. So, Suncor is going through the different iterations of studies and we'll be looking at that with them I think towards the end of this month and you'll hear more in due course, but it is a very complex decision for sure. Ron, back to you on CRP and CapEx.

Ron Millos

Management

Sure, Don. On the $1 billion target, about two-thirds of that is CapEx reductions and that’s spread amongst the various sites. Just the total program itself, of the $1 billion, about 80 – a little over 80% of it is that the operating sites being coal, base metals and they are cheap. And the balance is split amongst the – our IT systems, satellite projects, corporate costs and exploration and other project type expenditures. So that gives a sense of where the cost reductions are currently coming from and that's based on the full target.

Timna Tanners

Analyst

Okay. Great. And just to complete the thought then, can you remind us QB2 that decision is made because of COVID-19 is my understanding. But is there any decision that you would make with regard to that copper price on any of your projects given the depressed level and how do you think about that. And with the buybacks it sounds like – I just want to confirm it sounds like that was completing an authorization and you don't have anything set up further. Thanks a lot.

Don Lindsay

Management

On the first question, there's no change in our outlook long-term for the copper price. If fact, if anything, COVID-19 has probably made that more positive. I think most people know about the antimicrobial properties of copper and the COVID-19 virus dies within four hours on a copper surface, but it lives for days and days on a stainless steel or other surfaces. So we hope that in the long-term that various public transit infrastructure and healthcare hospital facilities would be using more copper. So no change in that at all. And, yes, we completed the authorized buyback and the board would review that again as we go through and have a better understanding of when QB2 started and how COVID-19 has shaken up. But we clearly believe that that is good value. At this level, it’s very good value. And we do want to make sure Timna that you and everybody at BAM did see the Elkview plant was completed and that's a very important investment. Some could even say a milestone or catalyst related to our coal business for the long-term.

Timna Tanners

Analyst

Thank you.

Don Lindsay

Management

Sorry -- and Don. Just Robin's going to jump back in here.

Timna Tanners

Analyst

Okay. I appreciate that. I just want to come back to a question that Jackie had, and I might have misunderstood that question, in particular, part of the MBA that was being referred to but that coal fire that's in the MD&A about the [indiscernible] permitting, it's not specific to the missing trial. Generally, we need to show progress in managing water quality issues in order to keep permitting on track. We're doing that and working closely with the regulators. This is a really complex problem with numerous stakeholders and there is always a chance it's something I expect to comes up about. But we are making progress and that's really what that statement was meant to highlight.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And the next question is from Chris Terry with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Chris Terry

Analyst

Hi, Don and Tim. First question for me is just in terms of the oil FX declines should be benefiting your operation. But I think you’ve provided sensitivities in the past. But just wondered if you could go through those. And then as a follow on to that, I think you talked about it on the call at the start of April around the Investor Day that you would – you wouldn't hedge anything related to QB2. But I just wondered if you could just talk about any hedging policies not on the revenue side but on the cost side FX or for the broader business? Thanks.

Don Lindsay

Management

Yes. I was on mute. I apologize. Ron, if you could take the first question on FX, but I'll start by addressing the overall hedging question. And so, our hedging policy broadly speaking is, we don't hedge the specific commodities that we produce because we know our shareholders are buying us for exposure to those commodities. Historically, when we used to have annual benchmark pricing in coal and inquiry benchmarking, we hedged the Canadian dollar, their currency. We locked in our cost base once we've known we'd locked in the tonnage and the sales price. But since so much more business in the down spot that we don't do anymore. For sources of supply in places like Red Dog when we're buying diesel, we can hedge that. We also do smooth out. The zinc price received are Red Dog because there's so much seasonality to its shipping, But it ends up net sort of the average price for the year. But we don't end up in a position where we're long or short a commodity or the exchange rate because we don't want to build that risk into our business for our shareholders. Ron and on sensitivity to FX, would you?

Ron Millos

Management

He might be on mute as well Ron.

Don Lindsay

Management

Sorry. I am. My apologies. Sorry, if I heard the question properly, I thought it was related to the asset impairment, and the details on the on the sensitivities are provided in note 4 to the financial statements. But the US $0.01 strengthening and the Canadian dollar would affect the impairment by about $50 million and a $1 change in the WCS price would be about $140-something million.

Chris Terry

Analyst

Thanks, Ron. I was more asking about the operations. So just how it actually translates through on a real-time basis on falling FX and some of the operations right now. Thanks.

Don Lindsay

Management

Yeah, Ron. Just our main sensitivity chart.

Ron Millos

Management

Yeah. So, the main sensitivity chart, we obviously withdrew that because the sensitivities are based on our estimates of production volumes and we’re pulling back the guidance. It's – we're a little concerned at providing any sort of sensitivity information. It could be resulting in numbers that are not correct. And the sensitivity isn't disclosed in our annual report. I don't have the number handy. My recollection was it's around $60 million for every $0.01 and that was based on the guidance that we previously gave and withdrawn. So, I would be – I would caution people to be very, very careful on using those sensitivities now because they are impacted by volumes or impacted by prices and throughputs and they're probably no longer accurate.

Chris Terry

Analyst

Okay. Okay. Thanks. And then just follow-on for me, just you talked a bit about the water treatment in the call and given some color on that, so I think Jackie's question related, but there's also a comment on Red Dog in the relays around tilings and water related projects in 2020. I just wondered if you could give some more detail on that and any CapEx associated with it.

Don Lindsay

Management

Dale, I guess.

Dale Andres

Analyst

I will take that, Don. Yeah. We have for over the last couple of years experienced higher-than-normal water precipitation and water inflow And so we're just flagging that in 2020 there's a higher than normal amount of projects associated with water and tailings to manage that situation to set ourselves up well for the longer term. As far as the specifics, I think we did have originally capital guidance in our Q4 release. We've now withdrawn that guidance due to COVID. But those are the kind of projects. I think there's a question earlier about what's our potential to reduce sustaining capital going forward. That's one area that we will not be able to reduce and it will be higher than normal for 2020.

Fraser Phillips

Management

Helena, I think we’ve come to the end of our time. We should hand it back here to Don for his closing remarks. Thanks.

Don Lindsay

Management

Okay. Well, thank you, Fraser, and thank you all for joining us today. I just want to sort of give an overview or summary, if you like, and how we see things. If you look back at the last six or seven weeks, I would sort of that as the operational phase of dealing with the effects of COVID-19 where all of us, both in our work and in personal lives, have had to go up the learning curve and figure out what protocols need to be in place and how to deal with it, physical distancing and the rest. But I’m encouraged because we’ve got through that operational phase and we are well up the learning curve now. And we are able to operate at close to capacity levels. We now have taken the step to go from 50% of our employees onsite back up to 75% with the full support of the Interior Health Authority. And we see a lot more confidence among these employees and their families, the communities, the mayors of the towns, the president of the Steelworkers Union and a lot of support. People are working very hard to get through this and they have been successful. So now we have confidence that we are able to operate and even the logistics team has been performing extremely well too. So we now we’re going to the next phase performing extremely well, too. So, now, we're going to the next phase and that's where the market is going to be reduced somewhat as all the things that the world had to do in the global economy take hold. But we look at the length of that. We know it’s one quarter. It’s probably two. But is it three or four? I don’t think so. It doesn’t…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. The conference has now ended. Please disconnect your lines at this time, and we thank you all for your participation. Please disconnect your lines at this time and we thank you for your participation.