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TFI International Inc. (TFII)

Q3 2014 Earnings Call· Fri, Oct 31, 2014

$145.68

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning ladies and gentlemen and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the TransForce 2014 Third Quarter Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. Instructions will be provided at that time for you to queue up for questions. (Operator Instructions). Before turning the meeting over to management, please be advised that this conference call will contain statements that are forward-looking and subject to a number of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated. I would like to remind everyone that this conference call is being recorded on Friday, October 31, 2014. I will now turn the conference over to Alain Bédard, Chairman, President and CEO. Please go ahead. Alain Bédard: Well, thank you operator and good morning ladies and gentlemen. Yesterday after the market closed, we issued our news release for the third quarter ended September 30, 2014. We also issued a news release updating you on our offer for Contrans Group. In a nutshell, we are extending our offer again to November 11 finalize approval under the Competition Act. I will now discuss the highlights of the quarter and then I will provide you with a more in-depth discussion of the performance of our operating segments. In Q3, we achieved a total revenue increase of 206 million, or 27% to $981 million mainly from acquisitions made over the last 12 months. EBIT reached $82.8 million, up from $59 million last year. This 40% improvement is explained by the contribution of acquisition and improvement in our existing operating divisions. This progress was also achieved despite the impact of acquisition-related costs in the amount of $4.7 million tied to the Transport America and the offer to purchase all…

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from the line of Mona Nazir with Laurentian. Mona Nazir – Laurentian Bank: Just wondering looking at the debt level currently 1.2 billion and taking into account the Contrans pro forma ratio will go over your 3.5 limit. I am wondering if you could speak to you comfort around the debt level and plan to get that down. I think on the last conference call you hinted that you would entertain an equity offering if the stock price gets to a level where it’s looking good. How are feeling about the current price? Alain Bédard: Well, first of all, one thing we have to keep in mind is that we’ve converted in October $85 million of debt into equity. So that means that our debt has been lowered by about 85 million and now we have 4 million more shares on the market. So that’s some more. Once we do -- once we close the Contrans deal which probably should occur around mid-November. Then at the end of the year our debt level will be just a little under 3.5 debt to EBITDA, if you include the trailing 12 months Contrans which is about 80 million. And if you add to our numbers, the trailing 12 months of America and all the acquisitions we’ve made. So being over 3, it's not a position that you like to be in but worse than that, you have to issue more equity. So we don't have in our plan short-term duration more equity, really our plan is to reduce our debt over the course of the next 12 months to an acceptable level, that's going to be under 3, because don't forget we will be generating on cash in 2015. So our debt reduction you'll see the…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Walter Spracklin with RBC. Walter Spracklin – RBC: So I like to start I guess now that you get a little bit more visibility hopefully this Contrans gets done in November 11 as planned. When you look out to 2015 with all the acquisitions that you have -- that you’ve made, if you look at a normalized basis now in 2015 in terms your outlook, can you update us on what you're thinking in terms of EBITDA and free cash flow turns for 2015? Alain Bédard: Yes, we are still not done with our plan for 2015, Walter, but so far I could tell you that we believe that EBITDA consolidated for 2015, including all the business unit that we have, including Contrans hopefully that this gets done mid November, we’re going to be talking about 550, something in that neighbourhood, depends on the price of fuel, it depends on the economy. But this is the best number that I could tell you so far. Now in terms of the free cash flow, start with 550, the CapEx, we anticipate with Contrans and with America in the family, our CapEx net of disposal is going to be in the neighborhood of 100 million. So with that in mind, so let’s say you are at 550 minus the CapEx, you’re down to 450. In terms of working capital requirements all of this should be taken care of. So you are at 450 after CapEx and then you’ve got the dividend which will probably – based on our policy, improve that a little bit. So you're talking probably I don’t know 65 million maybe for our dividend, 65 to 70 million – 450 minus 70, you’re down to 370 something like that. So this is why being…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Benoit Poirier with Desjardins Securities. Benoit Poirier – Desjardins Capital: Just to come back on package and courier, and when we look at your margin 7.3 versus 8.4 last quarter, just wondering what’s your level of confidence of reaching the double-digit number next year? Alain Bédard: I mean we’re going towards that direction, Benoit. So we’re improving every quarter, so I said that this year we should improve by about 100 basis point and the same trend – we should note the same Trend next year. Now don't forget that all the improvement that we’re seeing now comes from our next-days guys in Canada. Our same-day guys either in Canada or in the US right now as we speak in Q3 there is no improvement there, because we’re still stuck in improving the operation of the Velocity acquisition that we made. We’re at the end of that but you will see Q4 which will be the first time that – our same day business both Canada and the US is doing better than the year before. Benoit Poirier – Desjardins Capital: And what was the -- now that the contribution of Velocity in terms of revenue and margin – Alain Bédard: The revenue of Velocity – we’re down to about $60 million of business. So we shed a lot of business. So you know hindsight is always 2020, so if you asked me the question – if you would have to do it again, would you buy a Velocity and I would say probably but maybe not when I did it last year. The problem with Velocity was a company that was out of control with a very, very poor management team with lots of revenue, lots of terminal, lots of cars,…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Turan Quettawala with Scotiabank. Turan Quettawala – Scotiabank: I guess maybe first question, I know you talked quite a bit about EBIT expectations for ‘15 and I guess you’re helping us with our modelling. So maybe on ‘14 can you give us a sense of do you think it will end up bad now on EBITDA? Alain Bédard: Hey listen, I mean it all depends on the Contrans – well, let’s says without Contrans – Turan Quettawala – Scotiabank: Without Contrans I guess, right – I mean that’s probably going to be Q1 now – maybe a month? Alain Bédard: No, Contrans is going to be before Q1. Contrans to me is going to be mid-November but let’s say we exclude Contrans, because you know what it's just a month. So it's not really relevant. So our plan really for this year will just be a little over 400 or in that neighborhood of 400. So I know that we’re at, what, 280 something like that now after three months -- after three quarters. So we had a very rough Q1, good Q2, acceptable Q3 with all the COGs that we have to -- all the financial and all of that and the severance because also we paid $1.7 million in severance in the quarter. I think that will be in the neighbourhood of 400 million for 2014, so that means that our Q4 should be about same as our Q3 of this year because we came up at 116, 117, if you exclude the one-time -- so we missed the consensus which I think was 122. I don't know what’s your consensus for Q4, but we should be in the same neighbourhood. Turan Quettawala – Scotiabank: And that’s ex Contrans, right?…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Cameron Doerksen with National Bank Financial. Cameron Doerksen – National Bank Financial: Just want to talk about pricing a bit in the package and courier, we saw your peer later put out a press release a few weeks ago about increasing rates 4.9% and I know that the doesn’t necessarily mean that pricing is going up to 4.9% next year but what do you think that mean – I assume that will be directionally positive in your view. Alain Bédard: Absolutely, I mean I think finally if you go back five years ago and when DHL was running -- was operating in the US it was a depressed market because those guys were trying to gain market share away from FedEx and UPS. And UPS and FedEx had to protect and the pricing environment was to shift. So to me [Purel] has always been the leader in Canada, is always more attracted by volume than profit. And I think that they were starting to feel that there's a change there. There seems to be a new management team that understand that volume and no money, it's not good for you shareholder. So we’re very happy to see the leader of Canada in the next day service is saying we need to adjust our rates. But our plan us is based on no rate increase, we don't dream of new volume and price increase. If it happens if we can do it, we will do it. But you need the leadership of the leader that says hey guys we have to do something. If you look at the pricing because every time I talk to Canadian shipper that's got US operation, first thing he tells me gees, wish it’s expensive in US. Well, no, that expensive…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Jason Seidl with Cowen and Company.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Cowen and Company.

This [Matt Oldcoat] for Jason actually. If I can go back to the LTL segment and ask a question in a slightly different way. So your LTL revenue ex acquisitions was down 5%, and your operating expenses declined 3%. So I was just trying to get a sense of where you expect this unfavorable variance to trend in Q4? Is it going to be favorable or is it going to stay unfavorable but narrow and in 2015 as well? Alain Bédard: Well you see -- what all the moves that we've made Matt is towards reducing our costs, so we were not able to adjust ourselves path enough with that lower volume. And so that’s a killer for us and this is where our guys are working like day and night to correct the situation because this is not acceptable. Really that’s the first quarter that we’re seeing that our existing business is doing worse than the year before. Based on all the discussion that that's going on and all the action that has been taken, I don't anticipate to see a negative like we have in Q3. I was talking -- I was looking at our numbers of October this year versus last year, so we’re starting to see some improvement based on the action that we have taken. We also announced the closing down of two of our terminals in Québec in small region where we shut down the operation there and we’re moving towards an agent model. And there is more to come. We’re working on a plan that will affect the few of our terminals again in LTL because you see the big difference between US and Canada is that the Canadian market is shrinking and the pricing power is non-existing at all. So we’re fighting…

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst · Cowen and Company.

And speaking of the differences between the freight demand and capacity dynamics in the US and Canada, is it feasible that if the US continues to be very strong and capacity continues to be very tight and Canada continues to be lacklustre, is it feasible that any type of positive spillover effect could happen in Canada eventually? Alain Bédard: Well, you know what, Matt, it's a different story because in Canada we lost most of our manufacturing base. So all those plants that used to operate in Canada when we had a $0.75 dollar and $0.80 dollar, those poor guys are gone, they are dead. If you look at my business 10 years ago in Toronto, a lot of my customer were industrial based customer. Those guys are all dead, they are gone and they will not come back because the decision has been made to shut down those Canadian plants because they were small, and moved the manufacturing into the US. So this is -- to me the LTL market in Canada from the 2007 till now it's been a depressed market and it’s also a market that's been shrinking because we lost a lot of our industrial base and it is not going to come back. So to me it's a permanent impairment. So what you have to do when you see a situation like that, you have to adjust yourself. So us, what we’re doing is we're adjusting ourselves in a small market. So we’re pulling out of those small markets. But our competition they have to understand that in order to become a more viable company you have to reduce the offer, so then I mean you could start adjusting the rates, because at the rates that we’re having in Canada I was looking like I said earlier, Conway’s rate improved 5% quarter over quarter. I mean if we would get that -- us we would be laughing all the way to the bank but there's no way – there is no way we can get that because there's too much offering in Canada. So the only way you’re going to control that better is by consolidation -- the LTL market in the US is way more consolidated than the one in Canada, way more. So that's the way to go.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Tyerman with Canaccord Genuity. David Tyerman – Canaccord Genuity: First question is just on the P&C margin. When I look at it sequentially it looks like it's down about 1%. And I don't think I have heard through the whole call why that was. Maybe I missed it. Alain Bédard: Well, Q3 and Q2 are different historically, David. So what you have to do is always compare Q3 with Q3 and Q2 with Q2. So our Q2 of this year was better than the Q2 of last year and our Q3 of this year was better. So it's sequentially – quarters are not all the same. David Tyerman – Canaccord Genuity: What would be different from Q3 to Q2, you had more sales in Q3, I would think the operating conditions would be at least – maybe easier since you’re not going to have much weather impact. So I am just wondering why would you have lower margin sequentially in the summer in P&C? Alain Bédard: Boy, that's a good question but you know what I've never looked at it like that David. We always compare one quarter with the same. So that's a good question. Let me think about it because you know July, August okay -- if I look at my same-day business in Q3 where you got the July and August, the only good month that you have is really September. If you look at Q2 you’ve got May and June, they are our strong months and also most of the time April. So what you have in Q3, you’ve got two weak months. July is even weaker because a lot of people on vacation etc. etc. So when I think about that, to have 3 on the…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Kevin Chiang with CIBC. Kevin Chiang – CIBC: It’s actually Kevin. Just a couple of housekeeping questions actually. Just in your P&C, if you were to back out the impact of Velocity and the fact that called out the nonrenewal of some of the lower margin customers, would the rest of your business see positive organic growth and if so, would have been pricing or volume or maybe a little bit of both that drove the rest of that? Alain Bédard: If we exclude the Velocity business that we’re -- and even in 2015 we still have the backlash of that Velocity to a certain degree. But no, I mean the US operation before I bought Velocity, we were running an EBIT at the time close to eight points. Velocity killed me -- Velocity – I mean the management team there worked day and night and then we kept on losing customer because the service was so bad before we bought the company. And then the pricing with some business was – didn’t make any sense. So I mean we were stuck in the mud for about 12 months. Right now if you look at our Dynamex US operation, we’re getting close to where we were before the Velocity acquisition. We added about $50 million in revenue net of all the disposals we did. And in Q4 finally like I said the US Dynamex operation will do better than ever it. So we are on the right track but we have to dispose of a lot of terminals and a lot of bad business. So like I said earlier, hindsight is always 2020, so if I would buy Velocity again when I bought it, no. Would I buy Velocity today, I would buy Velocity because…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Maxim Sytchev with Dundee Capital. Maxim Sytchev – Dundee International Markets: Just maybe thinking sort of strategically and more medium-term than anything else. I mean obviously contemplating right now there are sort of TL stuff and potentially doing something on energy services. So how should we think about company’s positioning over the medium-term? I mean what are we trying to achieve over the next 3 to 4 years? What would you envision actually TFI to be done down the line as you rebalance the asset portfolio? Alain Bédard: Well you know what, we’ve said for last three years that we want TFI to be an asset light company and then buy strucking truckload company, you guys you know what is he doing – he wants to be an asset light, he is buying truckload company, is he stupid or what? Well, no, what we’re trying to do is – TFI is an asset light company but it's got a nice portfolio of truckload company that could be now with Contrans contract that's got five. It's a $1.8 billion company. It’s got three super team, so these guys could be standalone. So within the next two, three years I think it makes sense, because the focus of TFI is to be in the asset light world. If you look at the last acquisition we've made in the LTL those guys, the depreciation as percent of revenue is about 1%. So they are asset light, quick action was the same. All our P&C is really light, truckload is a great business. We do it well but we need the size. So this is why -- and we need geography. So now we have a super company in Canada with Contrans. We have a strong team in the…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Mona Nazir with Laurentian. Mona Nazir – Laurentian Bank: Just some follow-ups. You’ve spoken about Velocity and I am wondering if you could provide an update on Dynamex and Loomis? Alain Bédard: Well, Dynamex in the US or in Canada or both? Mona Nazir – Laurentian Bank: Both. Alain Bédard: Well like I said Dynamex US we’re doing very, very good now. I mean Velocity is behind us and 2015 is going to be a year where we’re going to improve our bottom line by at least 100 -- probably 100 to 150 basis points. Our focus in the US is really to grow the e-commerce. We’ve got lots of demand and that’s going to be the focus because we’re not going to be stuck in the same situation like we were stuck in 2014 trying to get -- bad customers, get rid of terminal, this is over. And in Canada the same thing. I mean we acquired small PDS, we’re growing with some e-commerce there also in Canada. So we have a strong team there. We will definitely improve Dynamex Canada by at least 100 basis point there again. So we will be much closer to an 8.5% to 9% EBIT by the end of next year on both division, US and Canada. Mona Nazir – Laurentian Bank: And then just going back to the comments on tonnage the LTL side down 5% and yield up on the truckload side. How do we look at this going forward? Do you think based on your comments tonnage will continue to be down for the next at least 12 months and pricing could trend further upwards as the economy improves on the truckload side? Alain Bédard: Yes. Well let’s start with the LTL, the drop in…

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from Benoit Poirier with Desjardins Securities. Benoit Poirier – Desjardins Capital: Alain, I just read the document and you still have 100 million of assets for sale. I was wondering if you could provide more color about the timing expected for that and whether what would be a potential opportunity with Contrans once the acquisition closed? Alain Bédard: Yeah that $100 million of asset that we’re talking about this is real estate that we have. Now like I said earlier in the call we have within the next 12 months another 25 million that's going to go up and that’s going to be sold with huge profit. If you look at my deal in Q3 of this year I mean we sold three piece of property and we made a lot of money. So you should see the same thing happening over the course of the next 12 months, a minimum of $25 million of that 100 million will be sold, 25 may be up to 40 million within the next 12 months will be sold. And the reason is this is pretty simple. I will give you an example where we shut down Baldor because it was a port terminal, I mean too much competition and return on asset was the shit. Now we are in discussion right now and I think that the several will be sold within the next 12 months, Baldor, the mining town is doing well. So I mean that's one example -- we shut down Prince Rupert and we’re in discussion right now, we've got an offer in the table so that terminal should go within the next 12 months. So we’ve got a lot of good things because like I said earlier with our P&C and our LTL we…

Operator

Operator

Mr. Alain, there are no further questions at this time. Please continue. Alain Bédard: Okay. Well, thank you very much for joining us on our call today. So I look forward to speaking with you again following our fourth quarter. So have a great day. Thank you.