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Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM)

Q2 2024 Earnings Call· Thu, Aug 8, 2024

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Thank you for standing by. My name is Bailey and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everybody to the Triple Flag Q2 2024 Results Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to turn the call over to Shaun Usmar, CEO. You may begin.

Shaun Usmar

Analyst

Thanks, Bailey. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us to discuss Triple Flag's second quarter of 2024 results. Today I'm joined by our CFO, Sheldon Vanderkooy; and our Senior Vice President of Corporate Development, James Dendle. Triple Flag delivered another strong performance in Q2 with sales of 27,000 GEOs. This has resulted in a record result for Triple Flag in the first half of the year and places us firmly on track to achieve our 2024 GEO sales guidance of 105,000 to 115,000 ounces. Our flagship asset, Northparkes continues to deliver quarter-on-quarter growth in GEOS due to high open pit grades. This has underpinned year-over-year growth of 25% in cash flow per share. We're also excited about the opportunity for further value creation that evolution has demonstrated in only eight short months as the operator of Northparkes. Most notably, the opportunity for high grade production from a new sub-level cave at the well-established E48 mine after the completion of high grade open pit mining is an exciting development that we're watching closely. Looking ahead, Triple Flag's organic growth profile remains strong and well positioned to deliver long-term value with expected sales of 135,000 GEOs to 145,000 GEOs in 2028. On the deal front, we've also maintained a solid pace of accretive acquisitions over the past month with an additional royalty interest in the Tamarack project operated by Talon metals, as well as new gold streams on the Agbaou and Bonikro mines operated by Allied Gold. Ultimately, we remain disciplined towards capital allocation during this period of strong precious metal prices and are pleased to announce that the performance of our business has provided the basis for our third consecutive annual increase of our dividend by 5% since we listed in 2021. Finally, the CEO transition has gone extremely…

Sheldon Vanderkooy

Analyst

Thank you, Shaun. We had a strong first quarter with a portfolio producing over 27,000 GEOs and record first half GEOs of just under 55,000 ounces. This puts us right on track to achieve our 2024 guidance. Cerro Lindo and Northparkes continue to be the two largest contributors to Q2 revenues with Cerro Lindo receiving a strong benefit from the rise in silver prices and Northparkes showing year-over-year growth due to the higher gold grades realized. Strong production and strong gold and silver prices resulted in record levels of revenue and adjusted EBITDA that are significantly higher than the prior year period. Most notably, operating cash flow per share increased 25% when compared to the prior year period, which is the metric that I am most focused on. The streaming and royalty model is working as it should with higher prices resulting in more cash flow to shareholders and not being consumed by capital expenditures or operating margin compression. I am also pleased that our dividend has been increased to $0.22 per share annually, up 5%. We have increased our dividend every year since our IPO in 2021 and it is my intention that we will continue this track record going forward. I view growing dividends as a core part of our capital allocation strategy. Lastly, I'd like to comment on our balance sheet. We exited the quarter with a small net cash position. Our portfolio generates robust cash flows, which allows for deployment into new asset additions, dividends and share buybacks and repayment of debt. Through the course of 2023 and the first half of 2024, we repaid debt taken on in connection with the Maverix acquisition. We acquired cash flowing royalties on Agbaou install, all while increasing our dividend and buying back shares. Our cash flow outlook combined…

James Dendle

Analyst

Thanks, Sheldon. Northparkes is a key asset for Triple Flag, providing tremendous optionality through growth across different time frames, flexibility across ore bodies, and discovery potential across the property. In the near term, E31 open pits continues to deliver high gold growth, driving both meaningful quarter-on-quarter and year-over-year growth. In Q2, the processed gold grade from E31 was 0.34 grams a ton, higher than the 0.28 gram a ton in Q1, and above the 0.15 gram a ton average from 2021 to 2023. In the medium term, mining of the E48 sub-level cave is expected to contribute to a steadier production profile at Northparkes versus the previous mine plan, following the depletion of the E31 pits through to the commissioning of the E22 underground. In the longer term, first production from E22 is expected in 2029, and studies are being advanced to optimize development of this ore body, assessing block cave and sublevel cave methods for a hybrid approach. Evolution has announced the discovery of the Major Tom and E51 deposit at a shallow [depth] adjacent to the E26 deposits and 4 kilometers from the plant. Intersections include 180 meters at 0.97% copper and 0.13 grams ton gold at Major Tom, and 142 meters at 0.88% copper and 0.14 grams per ton gold at E51. Interestingly, these deposits offer the potential for extraction independent of the underground materials handling system, and drilling is ongoing. We could not be more pleased with Evolution's optimization work to enhance the future in Northparkes. Turning to our newest streams, I'm also pleased to announce the acquisition of 3% gold streams on the Agbaou and Bonikro mines, operated by Allied Gold and Cote d'Ivoire, for total cash consideration of $53 million, with minimum delivery through to 2027 of at least 6,000 gold equivalent ounces per annum on a combined basis. Up on close, these assets add immediately cash flow and notably are expected to achieve full payback within the minimum delivery period through 2027 in the current gold price environment. Closing is expected by late August 2024. Allied is an experienced operator that has demonstrated value creation through exploration investments in a short time as a public company, with further synergy potential being advanced by combining Agbaou and Bonikro into a single complex. Triple Flag has an existing 2.5% net smelter reserve royalty on Agbaou, which we acquired around a year ago, and we know the team and the asset well. Our streams cover the existing mining and exploration licenses for Agbaou and Bonikro, where an extensive $16.5 million exploration program is being executed in 2024. Ultimately, Allied is targeting a production rate of 180,000 ounces to 200,000 ounces per annum and a great 10-year mine life from the combined complex. We look forward to working with Allied as an operating partner for years to come on Agbaou and Bonikro. Back to you, Shaun.

Shaun Usmar

Analyst

Thanks, James. This is likely the last set of results I'll present as CEO of Triple Flag. I started the business in May of 2016 with nothing more than the undertaking of a great financial partner in Elliott Management, specifically embodied in Mark Cicirelli, the driving force behind this journey. I shared an appreciation of the many advantages of the streaming and royalty business model and a vision of what value could be created by applying this model to an underserved mining sector. With the company approaching nine years of execution and delivery, I'm proud of what we've built together and I'm forever grateful for the opportunity afforded to me. We've come from obscurity to become the fourth largest precious metal streaming and royalty company in the sector. With these latest results, we've delivered a strong start to 2024 with record performance in the first half, which puts us nicely on track to achieving our guidance of 105,000 GEOs to 115,000 GEOs for 2024. This would represent our eighth consecutive projected year of record GEO growth for our business and builds on the 34% CAGR in operating cash flow this team has already delivered over the past seven years. I'm not aware of any competitor having replicated this delivery, certainly under similar conditions and timeframes. Our job is to allocate capital and create value for our stakeholders through rational risk-taking in pursuit of growing value per share. I'm proud of our track record, which is on full display on an absolute and relative basis and stack up favorably on objective metrics. We've not been flawless, as our disappointment at Pumpkin Hollow and Moss indicates this quarter, but this relates to two of our 236 assets, where the portfolio overall continues to deliver. No portfolio only has winners, and the overall…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of [Michael Abasolo]. Your line is open.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Yes, thank you for taking my question. My question, actually I have two. One is, what is the basis of your expected gold and silver price for the future? What's the rationale behind that assumption of those two prices? And the second and more relevant question to me is about the impairment charges. I see that there hasn't been mention on your part about this and it's not disclosed first in the document. But I think it's -- I see that it's a large amount. I wanted to know what went wrong there, what was the fault, and if there is any chance of reverting the loss, or you think it's definitive loss. Thank you.

Shaun Usmar

Analyst

Michael, thanks. I guess on the first point on gold and silver prices, look, I mean, doing the math on this is pretty easy when you look at the ounces or margins and translating it forward. We don't project forward gold prices or silver prices. For our investment decisions, we use a range of pricing. We'll look at consensus. We'll look at spots. We'll look at where investments start losing money because we understand that it is a dynamic environment. And I think the important feature here though is we are structurally bullish, gold and silver, particularly in a world where we see continued central bank money printing and currency devaluation. I did a podcast fairly recently with Grant's Interest Rate Observer where we go into this in some detail. So to the extent that's of interest, I direct you in that direction. On the impairments, look, firstly, I think if you look at certainly most analysts out there, this is something we've provided full disclosure on these underperforming assets in the case of Nevada Copper for years and in Moss recently. I think the best way to think about that is we are not adjusting our guidance for this year. We've already incorporated the underperformance into our views, we’ve communicated those quite seriously. And just given sort of triggering events from an accounting point of view, a prudent thing to do is what we've done, which is recognize that. I'll ask Sheldon to perhaps comment further, but you'll see full disclosure in our MD&As and how we thought about it and also how Sheldon can comment on where we're stacked. I think there are many lessons. I think the first thing when you look at Moss is that was part of a portfolio of 114 assets that we acquired…

Sheldon Vanderkooy

Analyst

No, I'll speak to that, Shaun. This is Sheldon speaking. Yeah, so both Pumpkin Hollow and the Moss mine, they're currently in insolvency processes. So we do have a prospect of recovery and the optimist in me would like to think we will have it. But for financial reporting purposes, I think it's very important for us to be prudent and for us to be conservative. The Pumpkin Hollow mine is in the Chapter 11 process in the United States, the Moss mine is in the CCAA process under Canadian insolvency proceedings. We are secured on both those assets and so there is some prospect, but what we did is we wrote those down to zero. We thought it was very important because despite the fact that these represent properties in the United States, Moss -- in the case of Moss, gold's at all time highs, copper prices are robust, there's a lot of sunk capital there. And so I can see some recovery there. I don't want to hold out the hope publicly of that because these are inherently uncertain processes. We thought being conservative was the right stance. We wrote them down to zero. And that allows our investors and shareholders to understand that there can be no further bad news from these assets. And I've seen others in our sector take a similar stance with uncertain processes, where they may be the prospect of recovery, but they -- going to zero, I think, gives a base. And you can be confident that there is no further financial statement exposure from these two assets for Triple Flag.

Shaun Usmar

Analyst

And Michael, I'll just add by just saying, look, the fundamental performance and the work this team does on the portfolio should be self-evident, both in terms of capital deployment, the yields we're generating, the cash flow that this is generating. We're building a portfolio, and that's what we've done with over 230 assets. So hopefully that addresses your question. Bailey?

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from the line of Tanya with Scotiabank. Your line is open.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is open.

Oh, good. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for taking my questions. Congratulations, Shaun, on your new appointments and Sheldon and team, on yours. I got a couple of questions. The first thing I'm just going to start is on the just some modeling questions. Just, we are expecting a stronger second half. I think that that's your guidance for the year. Can I just review, we had talked about quarter-over-quarter improvements at Northparkes, is that still what we're expecting? Therefore, Q3 is going to be a bit lower than Q4 with Q4 being the best quarter overall for the company? I’m trying to get a feel for that.

Shaun Usmar

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is open.

Okay, well, firstly, Tanya, thanks so much. It's good to chat to you. I'm going to ask James to comment on that.

James Dendle

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is open.

Yeah, Tanya, we don't provide asset by asset sort of quarterly guidance, but directionally, we've got a stronger Q3 then a slightly softer Q4 from the Northparkes, which is what we're expecting right now. But obviously, those things do change with production scheduling and scheduling and deliveries and shipments.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is open.

Okay, so okay, so Q3 for Northparkes is stronger than lower Q4. And then for the company as a whole, then should I be thinking as Q3 equals Q4 generally speaking?

James Dendle

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is open.

Tanya, I think, you know, it's probably not the right, we don't provide quarterly guidance. We try to provide directional guidance, particularly as it relates to a big asset. There's a lot of moving pieces and the guidance range we have is what we're on track to achieve.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is open.

Okay, all right, maybe I'll move on then to just looking at the, the acquisition that you did last night or announced last night. I'm looking at that production profile that you, you know, the company is given and looking at what your guidance is using 1,815 thousand tons that you've given for like 2028 or 1,900 thousand tons, there about. Would you say the internal rate of return is in line with operating mines, which are generally in the 5% to 6% range? Would that be fair James?

James Dendle

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is open.

No.

Shaun Usmar

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is open.

I think significantly superior.

James Dendle

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is open.

Yeah, Tanya, this is, both mines have relatively modest reserve life, but a long potential life beyond that. And you'll recall we acquired a royalty on Agbaou at least about a year ago. And since acquiring that royalty, the mine life has actually increased dramatically. It's been a really good investment for us. And we expect the company to be able to add to the mine life here. We see this as a much more robust return at consensus prices than you mentioned, partly driven by the fact the mine life is on a reserve basis shorter. But I think even with that, we think this would be more like a double digits reserve. And we think the minimum deliveries is a strong feature of this transaction.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is open.

Okay. So you're thinking double digit returns on sort of the 1,900 gold price just on reserves alone?

James Dendle

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is open.

Yeah.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is open.

Or are you including some of the resources?

James Dendle

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is open.

James Dendle

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is open.

No, we’ve include some of the resources converts. That we make modest assumptions based on historical knowledge and current analysis of the property that some of the resource converts.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is open.

Okay, so you do have some of the resource in there. Okay, now, that's helpful. Thank you. And then finally --

James Dendle

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is open.

And I think what's big and underappreciated with these assets is, you know, traditionally, Agbaou has been explored on the compensation area, which is basically the mining lease. There's a very large property around there, which is actually quite remarkable being underexplored. And while we're not explicitly pricing that into the transaction, I think it represents great upside both of us, like there's a part of that in the deal, we really like, and I think that's supported by the amount of money that's going into exploration of these properties right now.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is open.

Okay, thank you for that. And then just on just on the M&A pipeline with the deal pipeline that's out there. We've always talked about its $100 million to $300 million range, but you know, one of your competitors has talked about now the range is up from $100 million to $700 million. So maybe, James, you can talk to us about whether you are seeing now larger deals, you know, your deal has been in, under $100 million. So I'm just kind of thinking what's your sweet spot and what you're seeing out there?

James Dendle

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is open.

Tanya, I think our sweet spot remains the same as it has, in our prior discussions at this point, the $100 billion to $300 billion range is a really good one for us. It's very easy for us to fund. It also would result in deals of meaningful scale in proportion to the size that can be. You know, I think it's fair to say that all the large transactions seen by all the competitors, realistically if somebody's getting a phone call on a $700 million deal, we also get a phone call a $700 million deal. So there's some probably some consistency across that end of transaction scale, which we're seeing. But there is some complexity in these deals, particularly at the larger end, and there's no guarantee that discussions that involve transactions of the $500 million plus mark actually count the book. There's some complexity with the underlying counterparty. So we're optimistic that the pipeline looks good on those larger transactions, but it's very difficult to forecast the timing. There continues to be a number of smaller transactions in the market. I think this was a great addition, particularly given the immediate cash flow. And it was available in the market to us. And we had great insight into the assets. So we'll continue to add these sort of acquisitions when we can. I think that the key is there's a large number of companies who start the capital. And some of those represent good opportunities, but some of those represent hazards. And really, it's avoiding the hazards with some of the smaller, more challenged situations. But we're seeing a strong pipeline, so we're pretty happy about that.

Shaun Usmar

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is open.

And Tanya, I’d add that, as you'd appreciate with, Sheldon and James, Eban and others having sort of been at the decision-making table for the extent of this journey, I don't think, and Sheldon can comment beyond, but that you should expect any change in definition of sweet spot or discipline on value allocation or capital allocation. And that's the point of the sweet spot. I would think if somehow we find another Northparkes tomorrow, we have the capacity to do that. And you should expect that we would do just that, I would think.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is open.

Okay, and then we're still seeing in precious metals, both on the development assets and producing assets. Those are still that $100 million to $300 million deals. You're still seeing the same thing?

Sheldon Vanderkooy

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is open.

Hi, Tanya, this is Sheldon. Yeah, I think there's really been no real appreciable change in the pipeline over the course of the year. I don't want to just reiterate all of James's points, but it's like it's a pretty deep pipeline. There are some of those like very large transactions out there. But as James said, you never -- it's hard to get visibility on what the percentages of those being realized or and they might not come to the market at all, right? These are these are decisions the operators are making and they're surveying their menu of choices. But there's also this deeper pipeline of smaller transactions, which also can represent really good value for us. And I kind of point to the deal that we announced yesterday, on Agbaou and Bonikro, I think these are really good transactions for us and a really good home for over $50 million of our capital. So, if we could bring some more of those to book, that's good. But if we find something that's sizable and it benefits the value of shareholders, I think we're going to be hunting those down as well.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is open.

And you'd be open to syndication like you mentioned on that previous call?

Sheldon Vanderkooy

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is open.

Oh, for sure. If it's of a certain size, we're certainly open to syndication. And particularly, there's a factor there that for some reason, then you don't want to be overweight in a portfolio, whether that's stage, some kind of aspect of the risk profile that you think on a risk return basis, it's attractive on a smaller size and but on a more heavy basis it's not where you want to go. So you now and we've had we've had a good dialogue with a number of parties I mean we've seen examples of that in the market recently where someone did a partner or syndicate and we're certainly open to any of those discussions. At the end of the day we want to do its best for Triple Flag shareholders, that's our objective.

Tanya Jakusconek

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is open.

Yeah. Okay, great. Thank you so much and congratulations.

Sheldon Vanderkooy

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is open.

Thank you.

Shaun Usmar

Analyst · Scotiabank. Your line is open.

Thanks, Tanya.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And there are no further questions at this time. I will hand the call back over to Mr. Usmar for closing remarks.

Shaun Usmar

Analyst

Bailey, thank you. And thanks everybody for your time and attention today and the questions. And I'll just leave you, I think, where we started. I think what people say and what they do, ought to coincide. And I think what you're seeing in this team is execution on what we set out to do, manage a sensible portfolio, focus on shareholder value. And when you start looking coming into this year, at a time that coincides with near cyclical highs in gold and silver prices, you see the benefits. I mean with us being literally one of only three between the seniors and intermediates who hit guidance last year and we’re the only guys to indicate increases in our guidance for this year and be well on track with record performance in the first half of the year with a good balance sheet, more deals in the pipeline and underpinned with a really strong team, I think for our investors that puts a Triple Flag in an incredibly strong position. So with that, just thank you all very much and we look forward to more of this in the future with the Triple Flag team. So thanks, thanks very much, Bailey.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.