Triple Flag Precious Metals Corp. (TFPM) Q3 2026 Earnings Report, Transcript and Summary

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Triple Flag Precious Metals Third Quarter 2026 Conference Call. After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press *1 to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press *1 again. I will now hand the conference over to Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO. Sheldon, please go ahead.

Thank you, Ken. Good morning, everyone. I am Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO of Triple Flag. Thank you for joining us to discuss Triple Flag's third quarter 2026 results. With me on the call this morning are Eban Bari, our Chief Financial Officer and James Edward Dendle, our Chief Operating Officer. Q3 was another strong quarter of cash flow per share growth for Triple Flag. Our business delivered 25 thousand GEOs in Q3 which keeps us on track to deliver in the top half of our increased guidance range of 100 thousand to 110 thousand GEOs. Operating cash flow per share is the metric that most directly compounds shareholders over time. We are pleased to announce Q3 cash flow per share of $0.45 representing growth of 15% from $0.39 in Q3 of last year. This quarter demonstrates how Triple Flag creates value over time. From our founding, our approach has been to use rigorous due diligence to identify high quality assets early often when they are in hands of junior or mid cap operators, and before the-- and before the value is obvious. Then benefit as high quality surfaces over time. The success of this approach has been demonstrated by our investing track record. We acquired our NorthPark stream in 2020. At that time, Northparkes was a 7.5 million-tonne-per-annum mine operated by CEMOC. Northparkes was not well known or understood by the market at that time. And the scale of the resource base was not well appreciated. Northparkes is operated by Evolution with a much higher profile in the market. Evolution is now studying an expansion to 10 to 11 million tonnes per annum to unlock further value from its large 36-million-tonne resource base the potential that we identified in 2020 is now becoming apparent to the market. Another example is our royalty on the Koné Mine, We acquired this royalty as part of the Mavericks acquisition in 2023 at a very low value. The market ascribed de minimis value to this royalty on acquisition. first pour of gold in September, ahead of schedule, and is on track to achieve commercial production in Q4 this year. This is an asset that will benefit our shareholders for years to come. Another Mavericks asset is our Hope Bay royalty. When we acquired the Hope Bay royalty in 2023, the value of that land package was not well appreciated by the market, But we have been tracking that asset for years, and we are very pleased to gain this exposure. Agnico is now constructing Hope Bay and calling for first production in 2030. This is a cornerstone district scale royalty that will benefit our shareholders. For years to come. Another example is Polo Sur, We acquired our Polo Sur royalty in 2021. for less than $10 million We like the large resource that was owned by Antofagasta. And the proximity to the Centinela operation. Antofagasta is now evaluating the inclusion of Polo Sur oxide material in the near term mine plan at the Centinela operation in Chile, as we anticipated back in 2021. The value is now being surfaced. My final example is our exposure to the Marigold Complex in Nevada, We own 2 royalties on Buffalo Valley totaling 3.35%, and a 5% royalty on the Converse property. We acquired our initial interest in Buffalo Valley in 2021 We acquired our initial Converse interest in 2023. Each at very low valuations. James will discuss in more detail but SSR Mining's acquisition of the Converse project and incorporation of Buffalo Valley and Converse into the Marigold mine plan catalyzes the value we identified years ago. And finally, an important part of our capital allocation strategy remains returns to shareholders. The strong underlying portfolio performance is not reflected in the market price for our shares. And we have seen clear value in buying back our shares on the market. In Q3, we repurchased a further $20 million of shares during the quarter, on top of the $20 million repurchased in Q2. I will now turn it over to Eban to discuss our financial results for Q3 2020. Thank you, Sheldon.

Thanks, Sheldon. As Sheldon highlighted, Q3 was another strong quarter. The portfolio delivering 25 thousand GEOs. Revenue of $107 million was up 14% year-over-year, adjusted EBITDA of $94 million, was up 22%. And most importantly, operating cash flow per share of $0.45 was up 15%. Triple flag remains focused on top tier precious metals assets with revenue that is more than 80% sourced from mining friendly jurisdictions and both Australia and the Americas. Our revenue mix is strongly diversified. With North Parks and Cerro Lindo serving as 2 largest contributors in Q3, and Ravenswood in its first full quarter of deliveries already at 6%. Triple Flag sales mix remains nearly fully derived from precious metals. 2-thirds from gold, and we do not expect this to materially change going forward as we exit 2026 and enter 2027. On capital allocation, we view a progressively growing dividend sustainable across all metal prices As a core part of our shareholder return strategy. And we have increased our dividend every year since our IPO. On buybacks, we continue to act on the discount value of our shares by purchasing a further $20 million in open market during the quarter. Our NCIB remains an active part of our shareholder return strategy and we will continue to be opportunistic. Lastly, I would like to comment on our balance sheet. During the quarter, we repurchased $50 million of drawings on our revolving credit facility. Exiting the quarter with $185 million drawn, $20 million worth of cash, and $1.1 billion of available liquidity. We are on track with our expectation to repay this facility during 2027 at current metal price. Overall, a strong balance sheet robust operating cash flow, and total liquidity over $1.1 billion gives us the capital to continue deploying dollars into accretive opportunities to drive future growth for the benefit of our shareholders. With that, I will turn it over to James to walk you through Northparkes and the Marigold Complex.

Thanks, Eban. Starting with Northparkes. Which is both our largest asset and our largest growth asset. 4 distinct positive developments are underway, First, the E48 sub-level cave is ramping up through 2026 and 2027. Supporting near term growth Second, development of the E22 block cave has commenced. This deposit will be a long life, low cost, bulk underground operation. With production expected in 2030. E22 together with a new decline and upgrades to the material handling infrastructure, will support an underground mining capacity of 11 million tonnes per annum. Representing a greater than 50% increase from the current capacity. Third, the E44 deposit continues to advance, a gold dominant deposit that was not part of the original mine plan. Minimum guaranteed deliveries to Triple Flag will commence in 2030. And should increase substantially by 2031 and beyond. A study for this deposit is expected to be completed by the end of June 2027. And fourth, Evolution is advancing a mill expansion study at 10 to 11 million tonnes per annum. To unlock and accelerate processing at Northparkes' total resource base. Of more than 630 million tons. Including inferred resources. This mill expansion study is also expected to be completed by mid-2027. it is worth remembering where this asset was when we acquired our gold and silver stream in 2020. With a nameplate of 7.5 million tonnes per annum. Invested by Evolution as the new operator, is now surfacing the value of the substantial resource base to the direct benefit of Triple Flag shareholders. Turning to the Marigold Complex in Nevada. We are exceptionally pleased to see SSR lay out a clear path to production from the Buffalo Valley and Converse from all the assets in our portfolio. At Buffalo Valley we hold a combined 3.35% NSR, while at Converse we hold a 5% NSR. Both of these assets will be advanced as extensions of the Marigold heap leach complex in Nevada, which has operated continuously since 2 thousand and has produced over 5 million ounces of gold. In October, 2 things happened. SSR published an updated technical report for Marigold, which sets out a 20 year life of mine plan with an increased 4.6 million net reserve including a maiden mine plan for Buffalo Valley and a standalone heap leach. First production from Buffalo Valley is expected in 2029 with reserves of 670 thousand ounces supporting an initial 5 year operation. Concurrently, SSR announced an all-cash agreement to acquire Rockwell Resources. Its flagship asset is the converse gold project. Converse hosts over 2 million ounces of indicated resource, 3 million ounces of inferred resource, and is closely located only 6 kilometers from the Marigold complex. SSR has cited additional growth and conversion potential through future resource development and exploration drilling. Converse will now benefit from SSR's permitting, development and operating expertise. And follows Buffalo Valley in SSR's development sequence at Marigold. First gold is expected in 2033 at annual production of 150 thousand to 170 thousand ounces of gold over more than 10 years. These are royalties that were acquired at a very modest valuation. and today are in a proven long-running Nevada heap leach complex. With a committed senior operator and a published path to production. At no incremental cost to Triple Flag. That is free carried optionality of the royalty model that is core to our value proposition. Identify quality assets early through rigorous diligence, and allow the value to be progressively surfaced At no additional cost. I will now pass it back to Sheldon.

Thank you, James. In my opening remarks, I highlighted several examples where Triple Flag identified value early and is now reaping the rewards. This is ultimately reflected in the returns we realize over time. Scotiabank recently published research comparing what companies in our sector paid for their streams and royalties against what those investments are worth today. The results are set out in the slide. At the time we announced our investments, The Street ascribed an average IRR of 4.9%, Now with the benefit of hindsight, Scotiabank ascribes a realized IRR of 12.8% This 12.8% IRR leads our peer group. Which is a testament to our team's ability to deploy capital to the benefit of Triple Flag shareholders. We achieved this through an exceptionally disciplined process. Our underwriting is built on rigorous technical due diligence. The bedrock of the Triple Flag approach. We identify high quality assets early to create a tier 1 portfolio at a reasonable price. And the returns then compound to the benefit of shareholders as that quality and potential is revealed over time. In closing, the Triple Flag model will not change. Our portfolio is performing very well. We are on track for the top half of our 2026 guidance. Our 2030 outlook of 150 thousand to 160 thousand GEOs represents peer leading growth of approximately 50%. Our growth beyond 2030 is meaningful, anchored by Northparkes, Hope Bay, Kemess, and Arthur. All great assets in tier 1 jurisdictions. Our growth profile now also features Buffalo Valley, Converse, and Polo Sur. Assets operated by tier 1 operators and located in Nevada and Chile. This is exactly the type of royalty exposure that we want to build shareholder value on. Going forward, we will continue to drive growing cash flow per share and growing NAV per share for the benefit of Triple Flag shareholders. That concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, please open the floor to questions.

We will now begin the question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press *1 to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press *1 again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality. You are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question is from Cosmos Chiu with Scotiabank.

Good morning, Sheldon, Eban, and James. Congrats on the quarter. And, you know, thank you for taking my questions. First will be G&A. And what would you expect to be the run rate of G&A per quarter? To be lower than we expect. So we just want to know, like, you know, would Q3 be the reasonable run rate?

Yeah. Thanks. I will take that question, though. Our G&A is largely driven by volatility of our share price. On stock based compensation. You would have seen in 2025 as share price increased, our G&A increased at the same time. In 2026, with share price performance, Our G&A, we saw a decreasing or flat G&A profile. So we actually can do is predict what our share price will be in Q4. So we left our G&A guidance unchanged. At the same time, we expect, right, G&A to increase as share price performs over the back half of the quarter.

Great. Okay. Thank you. And then the NCIB like, I believe is expiring pretty soon. So I assume you renew your NCIB, and would you favor buyback over dividends or 1 off is another right now?

Yeah. I will take that. This is Cosmos. it is Sheldon here. Yeah. You can the NCIB, we have always renewed that, so, you can expect that to be renewed kind of in the ordinary course. So no surprises there. And in terms of NCIB versus dividends, I mean, we have been pretty clear, very clear, dividend increases every year. We just increased it recently. that is what we do. And then we are much more opportunistic on the NCIB, but you will see we have been much more aggressive on NCIB repurchases this year.

Right. Absolutely. Thank you. And 20 Q4, like, if I back out the number from your midpoint to the high end of guidance, versus 9 months. So Q4 will be similar to Q3, and not very reasonable assumption. Cost of sales Is somewhat lower or similar to this quarter? Like Q3? Can you repeat your question, please?

I am not sure I-- so roughly the Q4 expectation will be, like, similar to Q3 if I back out the number? Like the GEOs. If you are asking for it, it is David. On the line. If you are asking for our Q4 geos, I mean, I think our guidance for the year is to be in the mid to the top half of the our increased guidance range. So between 105 thousand to 110 thousand GEOs. So I would, you know, look to have a forecast within that range for Q4.

Yeah. Yeah. Mhmm. Cost of sales, think you mentioned would follow that geo, know, forecast that you have going to assume for that period. Noting that, you know, a large part of our cost of sales can be impacted by the noncash component. That would, you know, fluctuate with the metal price. So it should be tied to your metal prices assumptions for the quarter as well.

Right. Absolutely. Thank you. Last 1 from me, the deal environment is a $100 to $500 million. Deals through the primary range? And I assume to predominant. predominant will be precious metals focused.

Yeah. I can address that. it is James. Yes. I mean, there is certainly a decent number of deals in that range. This will say some compelling opportunities that are both larger and smaller. And it is fair to say that almost all of the transactions we are looking at are on the gold and silver. In the past we have seen opportunities outside gold and silver, but it is very active. on the precious side at the moment.

Right. Right. I see. that is all for me. Thank you so much. Thanks, all.

Your next question comes from the line of Joshua Wolfson with RBC Capital Markets. Joshua, please go ahead.

Good morning, team. If I just start on Northparkes, so it appears the capacity upgrades and additional ore sources that you cited in these slides, they are moving closer to reality. I just wanted to get some clarification on which of those catalysts are embedded in the 2030 growth outlook if any, or perhaps they are post-2030. Can you give any more detail on that, please?

Yeah, Josh. it is James. I can address that. So, you know, Evolution's been quite clear with their state intent for developing Northparkes and there is an additional capital project, which is not quite as material but it is related to the processing plant, so debottlenecking going to 8 million tons and installing coarse particle flotation and regrind. So we are strongly of the view that each of the projects mentioned will go ahead at NorthPark. And then, of course, they will have their own you know, timing profile. So as we mentioned, E22 starting in 2013, then, of course, you know, it is ramp-up to that. So we reflect all of them, but, of course, not all of them are within the 2020 timeline because, you know, material increases from in the 2022, you know, the early 30.

Understood. Thank you. And on Ravenswood, as we shift into full quarter of contribution and then towards steady state for production at that asset. What would you regard as a reasonable normalized run rate for deliveries to Triple Flag heading into 2027?

I mean, Josh, we are not going to provide asset-by-asset guidance. We never do. And we are also not gonna provide 2027 guidance in November 2026. So, you know, the ramp up to you know, plus 200 thousand ounces this year will take a couple of years at Ravenswood, which is what we have discussed previously. So we will reflect that in our 2027 guidance when we put it out next year.

Sure. Thank you. it is worth a shot. Maybe finally, on deals, how are you comparing the prospective return on new streams and royalties against buying back your own stock. Just curious as to whether the hurdle rate on new transactions has moved higher with pricing.

Yeah. Hi, Josh. Sheldon. I will take that. The best use of shareholder capital was always is always driven by the most value. is when we find good royalty and streaming opportunities. So we are always looking for that. And I am really pleased with what we have done this past year. I mean, we deployed $550 million, and we are active on several files. So, you know, we are certainly not sitting on our hands. Last year, we did $350 million, and that was a good year as well. With regards to the buyback, you know, we have the financial capacity to take advantage of that opportunity. And so we come in, of course, when we see just a really clear value on where the shares are in the market. So we are not in a situation right now where we have to do either/or. And, you know, we are finding good opportunities to deploy capital, and then we are also finding, you know, there is available capital to do some buybacks as well. And this is all in the context of what the cash flow generation is, which is robust, and the debt levels of the company, which are modest.

Okay. So nothing's changed in terms of how you are assessing these deals. I mean, you know, you are not chasing a higher IRR. it is all steady as she goes.

We tend to be very consistent with what we do, and that is measured over years, if not the full decade. Got you.

Thank you very much, team. Thanks.

Your next question comes from the line of Fahad Tariq with Jefferies. Fahad, please go ahead.

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. On the 2030 guidance, which I know has not changed, can you maybe talk about any assets that you think between now and then could provide upside incremental production that is not captured in that guidance? Thanks.

So what I would say is this is Sheldon. That 2030 number, we are we are highly confident in, and there is certainly upside there. I am actually not gonna go asset by asset, but there is certainly-- if you go through the public disclosure of all the operators of our portfolio, you get to a figure quite a bit higher than what is in our 2030 figure that we put out. But that is a number that we just feel very, very confident in. There is certainly upside there, but I. I am not gonna flag individual assets What I wanna do is, like, mining projects, it is easier for them to be a little slower than a little quicker. We just want to have a high degree of credibility with the market that they see that coming on. As 1 of the other questions alluded to, too, there is a lot of growth in the portfolio even beyond 2030. So our growth profile is really good.

Okay. Great. And then just 1 more for me. In terms of the liquidity that is available, it is quite substantial now, and the balance sheet is in a really good position. Do you anticipate that Triple Flag would participate in some of these larger transactions that are being I guess, expected in the industry? Like, discussions of maybe a billion-dollar royalty or stream, 1 per year for the next 5 years. You know, these are the types of transaction deal pipelines that some of your larger peers are talking about. Is that something that Triple Flag would look to participate in, or is that not the right kind of size? Thanks.

It would be. We are looking for any opportunity to drive shareholder value. And, you know, so we would look at larger transactions as well. We are always going to be prudent when we look at leverage levels. But we look at larger transactions as well as midsize ones. And the pipeline is very robust. I know our peers are talking about that same pipeline. it is both larger transactions, midsize transactions, and smaller transactions. So really the criteria is what drives value for Triple Flag.

Okay. Great. Thank you so much. Thank you.

Your next question comes from the line of Lawson Winder with Bank of America. Lawson, please go ahead.

Thank you very much, operator. Good morning, Sheldon and team. Great quarter. I understand your reluctance to go asset by asset. sort of off the cuff, but, you know, maybe I will just do that a little bit myself and ask some specific questions about some more important assets. So with Northparkes, could you just clarify for us what exactly is built into that long term 2030 assumption in terms of the processing capacity in terms of million tons per annum.

Yeah. I can address that. And so the capital project set out in the presentation in addition to the coarse particle flotation and regrind are all included. The big 1, though, is, you know, Evolution discussed a range of processing scales. Our current working assumption that is reflected in the 2013 is if they take it up to the 10 to 11 million ton range, that, of course, gets. You know, that. that is been well telegraphed to the market. that is what is in 2020.

Yeah. Okay. Thank you very much for that, James. And then just thinking about some of the other assets, So Polo Sur, my understanding is that probably would not be included in 2030. Can you confirm that? That would be upside? Should Antofagasta were to go ahead and incorporate oxides into the circuit.

Yeah. That would be a benefit to us.

And then the other asset that I guess I would be curious about is Priska. So the upper space is now financed towards production. But the Triple Flag has the option to exercise the $80 million stream. I mean, what is your thinking on that currently? Or what are your trigger points to either, you know, move forward with that or decline?

Hey. Good question. Thanks, Lawson. So I just clarified that Glencore's financing actually provides for not only the development of the upper part of the mine, which are those projects, but also much of the early works on the deeps, which is our main economic interest. So the Glencore financing is now available to Bryah now. They are in the process of drawing that, and we will start. The works required to develop the upper levels will start. Stream has the right but not the obligation to fund the $80 million, and the triggering point on that is on satisfactory completion of detailed feasibility study that is appropriately engineered and a capital program that is fully financed. Inclusive of our stream. So we would expect to be making that decision late in 2027. We would draw down in 2028. that is the current schedule that we have been provided by Bryah, the operator.

Perfect. Thank you. And then just on the M&A pipeline, like, I think it is an interesting discussion point given your enormous gross margins and the theoretical capability of this business to take on substantial debt in the short term in order to complete larger transactions. Sheldon, I appreciate the comments about wanting to be conservative with the balance sheet. But, I mean, can you give us a range of trailing net leverage multiples with which, you know, the company might be comfortable on a short term basis in order to complete a larger transaction?

Sure. Sure, Lawson. I think if you are at 2x EBITDA, you are in a zone of safety there. And I think the market is comfortable with that. And quite frankly, the cash flow generation of a portfolio like this, that could be de-levered. And so when you start to run those numbers, that actually allows us to look for, you know, quite large transactions that really move the needle. For a company of Triple Flag's size and add even more growth to what is already embedded here, embedded organic growth into the firm.

So, again, we will be looking for ways to add shareholder value that is really the criteria. Yep. that is very sensible. And then just 1 final question on capital allocation. I mean, you have indicated a preference to be, I think, opportunistic with the buyback. But nevertheless, the last 3 quarters have indicated that a bit of a stable buyback implementation despite some significant share price volatility. I mean, I just want to put a finer point on this. And do you mean to say that the buyback approach could change heading into Q4 and into 2027? Or should we expect something, you know, in the range of what we have now seen for a couple of quarters?

It really I would expect probably a steady course as opposed to any change. there is never really been any change to our approach. We just. when we see dislocation in value, and I guess to a certain point, we step in a little bit more aggressively, and we have done that the last couple of quarters. Part of it is just the value we are seeing generated by the Like, we just highlighted a number of projects that are, I think, a little bit below the market radar screen. And there is real value being created there and being surfaced there.

Yep. Okay. Well taken. Thank you guys very much. Thank you, Lawson.

Your next question comes from the line of Derick Ma with TD Cowen. Derick, go ahead.

Good morning. Thanks for taking my question, and congrats on the quarter. So I know this might be preliminary, but when you roll out the 5-year outlook, Hope Bay, Kemess, and E44 are going to come into the window. So how does the updated outlook going to look like in terms of direction and which assets matters most and how comfortable you are on the development timeline, the key assets.

Yes. Thanks for the question. Like, we, as I stated earlier, are very comfortable with our stated 2030 outlook range. And when we come into February, we will, of course, we will give 2027 guidance, and we will also update that 5 year view. And so we will give a 2031 view. that is the process we are gonna go through. Obviously, we will make sure it is something we are 100% comfortable with. Directionally, it would be it would be higher than what we have for 2030. So, again, we will put out that 2031 outlook in February, and I do not wanna start gun jumping on, you know, going asset by asset with the deltas are. But portfolio does not stop at 2030. It continues to build.

Great. Thanks for taking my question.

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Sheldon Vanderkooy for closing remarks.

Thank you, operator. Thanks, everyone, for joining the call. Have a great rest of your day. Bye.

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.