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Target Corporation (TGT)

Q3 2011 Earnings Call· Wed, Nov 16, 2011

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Target Corporation’s Third Quarter 2011 Earnings Release Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded Wednesday, November 16, 2011. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Gregg Steinhafel, Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

Gregg W. Steinhafel

Analyst · Robby Ohmes with Bank of America

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to our 2011 Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call. On the line with me today are Kathy Tesija, Executive Vice President, Merchandising; and Doug Scovanner, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. This morning, I'll provide a high-level summary of our third quarter results and strategic priorities going forward, and Kathy will discuss category results, guest insights and upcoming initiatives. And finally, Doug will provide detail on our third quarter financial performance and outlook for the rest of the year. Following Doug's remarks, we'll open the phone lines for a question-and-answer session. As a reminder, we're joined on this conference call by investors and others who are listening to our comments today via webcast. Following this conference call, John Hulbert and Doug will be available throughout the day to answer any follow-up questions you may have. Also as a reminder, any forward-looking statements that we make this morning are subject to risks and uncertainties, the most important of which are described in our SEC filings. We're very pleased with Target's third quarter financial results, which we released earlier this morning. We earned $0.82 per share in the third quarter, up more than 10% over last year's third quarter. This increase is particularly noteworthy because we're cycling an unusually low income tax rate in the third quarter of 2010, and this year's results includes $0.05 of dilution from our Canadian market investments. Adjusted for these 2 items, our EPS increased 28% over last year. Our comparable store sales increased 4.3% in the quarter, reflecting our strongest quarterly performance since the second quarter of 2007. This year's performance reflects the strength of our core Retail business, including the benefits of our remodel program and 5% REDcard Rewards, which are combining to drive meaningful sales momentum in an…

Kathryn A. Tesija

Analyst · Jefferies & Company

Thanks, Gregg. We're very pleased with both the pace and mix of our third quarter sales. With our remodel program, we're becoming an even more trusted destination for our core guests, providing everyday needs at great prices along with outstanding value on trend-right content in apparel and home. Across the chain, we've seen consistently strong sales in food, beauty, healthcare and other household essentials as guests respond to Target's great prices in a unique one-stop shopping environment. On the more discretionary side of our business, we are pleased with our sales momentum in Apparel, which was led in the third quarter by a double-digit comp sales increase in Performance Activewear, featuring our C9 by Champion brand. While trends have been slower in Home, we've seen steady improvement so far this year as comp sales in this category have strengthened every quarter. Successful Back-to-School and Back-to-College campaigns drove third quarter performance in Housewares and seasonal categories, and we've been encouraged with recent sales spends in bedding, following our September reset. We believe we've positioned our Home category for continued improvement, but we expect progress will be slow and uneven in light of continued weakness in jobs and the housing market. Our third quarter partnership with Missoni generated an amazing amount of buzz, and the guests' response on the day of the launch was unprecedented. Our largest collection to date created a frenzy, reminding some of Black Friday, as guests formed lines hours before some stores opened. Most stores sold out quickly in the first few days, and replenishment shipments sold out quickly throughout the month. On www.target.com, Missoni demand created online traffic that outpaced any Black Friday or Cyber Monday in our history, putting a great deal of stress on our newly launched online platform. While we didn't anticipate putting our…

Douglas A. Scovanner

Analyst · Jefferies & Company

Thanks, Kathy. This morning, I'll provide additional detail on Target's third quarter financial performance and provide more color on our outlook for the fourth quarter and beyond. Our actual EPS of $0.82 reported earlier this morning set a new third quarter record by some measure, and as Gregg discussed, the adjusted EPS increase attributable to our 2 U.S. business segments was particularly robust in the quarter. You'll notice that we included an additional table in our press release schedules this morning, in which we reconcile our reported EPS to an adjusted measure that I believe is highly useful in judging the results of our operations. We'll continue to include this table in the future to provide greater clarity around the impact of unique items that are also large enough to merit discrete analytical consideration. The 2 matters that met these criteria today were the large and favorable state income tax settlements recorded and disclosed last year and the expenses recorded and disclosed this year related to our Canadian market entry. In the future, this table will include not only additional activity in these 2 categories, but also, for example, any income or expense directly or indirectly related to the intended sale of our accounts receivable if sufficiently large. As our results unfold over the next several years, this table will provide a framework for all of us to use in tracking Target's progress toward achieving $8 or more in EPS by 2017. In the U.S. Retail segment, we enjoyed a third quarter comparable store sales increase of 4.3%, slightly above our second quarter performance and slightly above our expectation going into the quarter. This comp increase was driven primarily by an increase in average ticket, combined with a slight increase in same-store transactions or traffic. While we don't perform a…

Gregg W. Steinhafel

Analyst · Robby Ohmes with Bank of America

We're very pleased with our third quarter financial results, and we expect our current momentum to carry into the fourth quarter. Our remodel program and 5% REDcard Rewards are driving profitable sales in an environment where consumers continue to be very cautious. We expect to continue to benefit from these initiatives in the fourth quarter and into 2012 as we open our first City Target stores and prepare to open Canadian Targets in 2013. That concludes today's prepared remarks. Now Doug, Kathy and I will be happy to respond to your questions.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Dan Binder with Jefferies & Company. Daniel T. Binder - Jefferies & Company, Inc., Research Division: I was just curious if you could give us a little bit of color on what your promotional posture will look like this holiday season versus last year.

Kathryn A. Tesija

Analyst · Jefferies & Company

Well, I'll take that one, Dan. This is Kathy. The fourth quarter is extremely competitive, and so far this year, our pricing has been spot on. We've been really pleased with how competitive our prices have been. And of course, with the 5% Rewards, our guests get an even greater deal. So we believe it will be competitive this year just as it has been in past years, and we believe our pricing will measure up. Daniel T. Binder - Jefferies & Company, Inc., Research Division: If I could just follow up. I was curious, Doug, if you could just give us a little bit of color on how you would expect PFresh and 5% Rewards to contribute now that we're going to the second holiday season with it both from a sales and margin standpoint?

Douglas A. Scovanner

Analyst · Jefferies & Company

Well, first with respect to 5% Rewards, as you know, we piloted this concept in Kansas City for a full year before we rolled it out nationally, so Kansas City, have to see the twinkle in my eye, will always be one year ahead of the rest of the U.S. In our second year in Kansas City, we've had pretty meaningful increase year-over-year, not as large as year one but still quite meaningful. So moving forward for the next 4 quarters, still expect a couple of hundred basis points or better year-over-year increase in penetration. There is seasonality to this program so the benefit will be lower in Q4 than we expect it to be Q1, Q2, Q3 next year but continuing through year 2 in all likelihood and well beyond year 2 in terms of its year-over-year benefit. PFresh, a smaller benefit, of course, because of the nature of the program and also subject to seasonality, which makes it a little smaller contributor in Q4 than Q1, 2, 3. And for those 2 reasons, seasonality in each of those programs, that's why I believe that more likely our Q4 same-store sales could trail the last few quarters of experience by a small amount.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Robby Ohmes with Bank of America.

Robert F. Ohmes - BofA Merrill Lynch, Research Division

Analyst · Robby Ohmes with Bank of America

A couple of quick questions. The first was just on gross margin and the outlook there. The rate improvements, could you maybe talk a little bit about the rate improvements that you saw within categories? And was that primarily less clearance-driven year-over-year on your tight inventory management or is there something else that you figured out? And then the second question is, Doug, I think you talked about the Apparel and Softlines inflation being significant. Can you maybe give us some view into 2012 on whether that inflation benefit -- the comp that you saw in the third quarter, if that starts to anniversary as you move through the first half or second half of next year and how you guys are thinking about that?

Kathryn A. Tesija

Analyst · Robby Ohmes with Bank of America

So I'll take the first one, Robby, on gross margin. As you know, our goal has been to maintain gross margin within categories or to improve it. And obviously, the team's done a fantastic job of that. Part of that, as you mentioned, was great inventory control. Certainly, optimizing our markdowns has helped. And then I would say in Home and Apparel, the team has been very thoughtful about how to offset some of those cost increases. And as we've talked earlier, there's a number of contributing factors to that. One is our standardizing of fabric, which gets us better quality and consistency, but we're also able to aggregate yardage and get better pricing. And then the work that the team has done in garment design and technical to make sure that we're taking out costs wherever that's appropriate. And then lastly, where appropriate, we have passed on some of those cost increases. So while our pricing in the marketplace is really rock solid, we've been able to improve on our gross margin.

Gregg W. Steinhafel

Analyst · Robby Ohmes with Bank of America

Yes. This is Gregg. I'll tackle the inflation question. First of all, we really don't get the comp benefit from the inflation that we've experienced because as Doug mentioned in his remarks, the units are down, commensurate with what the inflation is in those primarily non-discretionary categories. So in a general sense, what's happening is the high -- or the higher inflation in cost inputs, that has mitigated somewhat, and as we turn the corner and we go into 2012, we believe we will experience far less inflation than we did in the second and third quarters and fourth quarters of 2011, but it will still be slightly higher than where we were as we entered 2011.

Douglas A. Scovanner

Analyst · Robby Ohmes with Bank of America

I know we're a bit of a broken record on this topic, but we've always believed that the impact of inflation on the way up and on the way down is much likely much lower than many of you on this phone call believe.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Greg Melich with ISI.

Greg Melich - ISI Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Greg Melich with ISI

Just wanted to follow up on the units versus price and the outlook for the fourth quarter. That sort of 4% comp or maybe a little less, is that what you guys bought for 3 or 6 months ago when you were planning for holiday or has something else changed in the consumer environment to make that shift a little bit? And I have a follow-up.

Douglas A. Scovanner

Analyst · Greg Melich with ISI

Nothing's changed, it's exactly what we bought for.

Greg Melich - ISI Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Greg Melich with ISI

All right. So then the follow-up is, Doug, you mentioned on the credit. It was very helpful as to how that starts to cycle. Would you expect that we've reached that point where the provisions on the balance sheet and bad debt expense sort of at that absolute dollar number now just has to stabilize given that the delinquencies are stabilizing? Is that the way to think about it?

Douglas A. Scovanner

Analyst · Greg Melich with ISI

We're getting very close to the point where they'll be stabilized. I'd certainly leave the door cracked open to the potential for a much more modest receivables allowance reduction in Q4 than we've experienced. Certainly within the next several quarters, we're likely to reach that equilibrium. Again, the underlying performance of the portfolio remains quite strong. We'll simply move into a period where we will no longer experience the turbocharging impact of those receivables allowance reductions, certainly not to the same extent. And given the fact that the portfolio is, of course, smaller than it was a year ago, those factors will combine to produce segment profit lower than prior year actuals, even though segment profit will highly likely remain fully, fully adequate in light of the capital we have invested in that segment.

Greg Melich - ISI Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Greg Melich with ISI

Great. And then Gregg or Kathy, on the dotcom, given some of the challenges at the launch and Missoni, all that going on at once, do you have a team in place now to actually fix dotcom? Or do we expect to be adding more people or maybe building it up some more?

Gregg W. Steinhafel

Analyst · Greg Melich with ISI

Well, we believe that the platform is stable. We are in the process of building out that team and adding more resources to that team. We have been doing that all along. We very shortly will be naming a leader of that team, but we have gone through -- we've made a tremendous amount of fixes as you can imagine with a replatforming effort of this magnitude. We really took a 3-year program and did it in just over 2 years. And so we fully expected to have some issues coming out of the changeover. And we've had that amount of issues and more. So we feel confident we've got the right amount of resources, the capital that we're spending to make those fixes as well as the team members in place to make great progress going forward.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Adrianne Shapira with Goldman Sachs.

Adrianne Shapira - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Adrianne Shapira with Goldman Sachs

First on the fourth quarter comps, you talked about 4% or less. If you could shed some light on the monthly cadence, given some pretty wide swings that you're lapping a year ago, the tough November, easy December, the extra day in December. If you could provide any sort of clarification on how we should think about on a month-to-month basis in the quarter, that'd be helpful.

Douglas A. Scovanner

Analyst · Adrianne Shapira with Goldman Sachs

We don't expect to experience the same degree of volatility month-to-month this year that we experienced last year. And therefore, if you're thinking of something like a 2-year stack, we would expect November to be stronger than December.

Adrianne Shapira - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Adrianne Shapira with Goldman Sachs

Great, that's helpful. And is that also sort of inclusive of trends you've seen month-to-date?

Douglas A. Scovanner

Analyst · Adrianne Shapira with Goldman Sachs

Month-to-date, we're right in line with where we expected, so right in line with an experience that supports the comment I made a minute ago. Let's please remember, though, that even though we're halfway through the month in elapsed time, we're not even remotely close to halfway through the month in elapsed sales. So most of the forecast for November lies ahead of us.

Adrianne Shapira - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Adrianne Shapira with Goldman Sachs

Sure, appreciate that. And then the second, on the margin commentary, if you could -- the favorability that you're seeing in a category basis, maybe shed some light on the merchandise margin, what that -- what's the performance there? And then going forward, Doug, your comments on the guidance, modest gross margin rate deterioration. As we've seen the adverse mix shift seemingly moderate over the last few quarters and you're lapping a reasonably easy year ago comparison on the gross margin, kind of help us think about why we should expect some deterioration? Is that some of the REDcard free shipping, some of the new initiatives that could drive some of the contraction there?

Douglas A. Scovanner

Analyst · Adrianne Shapira with Goldman Sachs

Well, year-over-year, we continue to have pretty meaningful layer of 5% Rewards and a pretty meaningful layer of the impact of our PFresh initiative. So even though it might be moderating, to use your word, it's still adverse to gross margin rate. Separately, looking back into the third quarter, there's no doubt that our gross margin rate performance within categories exceeded our expectations going into the quarter. So stir all that together, when I've remarked about a familiar recipe, what I meant to describe is a circumstance where we'll continue to see gross margin rate deterioration. In Q4, I would expect it to be a little higher than what we experienced in Q3. Separately, we expect to continue to benefit in Q4 and beyond from the benefit of favorable SG&A leverage and favorable depreciation and amortization leverage. Our outlook for Q4 at this point is that those 2 expense-related benefits will be in line with maybe, a little larger, maybe a little less, than the gross margin rate deterioration, and that's why we think that EBIT margin rates in Q4 will likely be in line with last year's rate, plus or minus. Important to emphasize EBIT, obviously. With the depreciation and amortization benefit even year-over-year on EBIT would imply a slight deterioration in EBITDA.

Adrianne Shapira - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Adrianne Shapira with Goldman Sachs

Sure. And just to circle back on the gross margin, putting with your comments earlier that seasonally the REDcard is a little bit seasonally lower in the fourth quarter, appreciate there's an adverse hit from REDcard and PFresh. But it's in the fourth quarter, that's a little bit lighter seasonally. Maybe help us understand the greater deterioration?

Douglas A. Scovanner

Analyst · Adrianne Shapira with Goldman Sachs

Again, we experienced greater benefit from margin rate improvements within categories in Q3 than we expected. That is the single largest offsetting factor.

Adrianne Shapira - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Analyst · Adrianne Shapira with Goldman Sachs

Okay, got it. And then maybe, Gregg, you mentioned obviously the announcement on Doug and the change of the management. There's obviously been other announcements, Michael Francis and online. Maybe just help us think about the timing in terms of assembling the new team. How should we be thinking about what the complexion, what sort of the skill set, what sort of -- what Target will look like going forward in terms of the executive rank?

Gregg W. Steinhafel

Analyst · Adrianne Shapira with Goldman Sachs

Yes. I'm not really going to address the timing of this because the timing will come when it's appropriate. We have a very deep and talented bench. Clearly, Doug's retirement was a planned event, and we have great internal team members. We have a team of 355,000 strong. But we're also going to take an opportunity to look on the outside as well to make sure that we get absolutely the best individual in any of these positions that are open right now. So stay tuned. Timing is undefined, but I think the most short-term decision that you'll hear from us will be filling our multichannel and dotcom position and then the others will come after that.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Mark Wiltamuth with Morgan Stanley. [Technical Difficulty]

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Peter Benedict with Robert Baird. Peter S. Benedict - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division: Two quickly. First just on the free shipping that you're offering with the REDcards, where does that hit in the P&Ls? Probably not super material, but I just wanted to kind of understand where that would hit. And then secondly, Walmart obviously talking a lot about making incremental price investments in their business right now and going forward. I guess my question is where are you seeing that show up in your business right now, if at all? And has that reality kind of changed your planning processes for the holiday and beyond?

Douglas A. Scovanner

Analyst · Peter Benedict with Robert Baird

I'll tackle your first question, and Kathy will tackle the second one. Free shipping will show up year-over-year as a decrease in gross margin rate. Given the magnitude of this one, I doubt that it'll be one of the -- I doubt that it would be one of the larger items in explaining our fourth quarter year-over-year. Kathy?

Kathryn A. Tesija

Analyst · Peter Benedict with Robert Baird

On the pricing side, we have not seen it show up yet at Walmart. Certainly they are competitive in their pricing as they always are, but there are not any more rollbacks today. In fact, there's a few less. And their discount is on par with where they have been historically. So of course, we watch that very carefully, and we will adjust our prices as appropriate. But so far, we haven't seen an impact.

Gregg W. Steinhafel

Analyst · Peter Benedict with Robert Baird

Yes, I think, Peter, what you're going to see from virtually all of our retailers is that everybody is focused on winning on price and making price investments, and they're going to talk about that broadly and loudly. And that's the primary tactic of Walmart. So it's consistent with what they have done as they lead into a Back-to-School or Back-to-College season or in the fourth quarter. They typically talk about the price investment they're going to make. They're a very aggressive retailer, and they have a lot of good deals. But it doesn't -- it's not all that different compared to where they've been in the past. Peter S. Benedict - Robert W. Baird & Co. Incorporated, Research Division: Okay. That's helpful. And just one follow-up. On, and you may have mentioned this, but the fourth quarter comp view, what does that envision for traffic? Are you guys thinking transaction count is flat or slightly down, slightly up? That would be helpful.

Douglas A. Scovanner

Analyst · Peter Benedict with Robert Baird

We don't forecast at that level of precision.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Deborah Weinswig with Citigroup.

Shane Palahicky

Analyst · Deborah Weinswig with Citigroup

This is Shane on the line for Deb today. I just thought maybe I just wanted to take a quick look at Canada. With you guys that kind of putting the real estate portion of it kind of behind you, I just wanted to kind of see where you guys are in terms of the kind of market entry and that execution and also kind of talk about your relationship with Sobeys and how that's going?

Douglas A. Scovanner

Analyst · Deborah Weinswig with Citigroup

Well, from a market entry standpoint, we're right in line with all of our previous disclosures. We expect to open 125 to 135 stores resulting from the Zellers transaction. We are busily at work trying to identify additional sites to augment the sites that came about from the Zellers transaction. The majority of those will open in 2013. Some of them, the more complicated projects, especially ones that involve building expansions, likely 2014, not 2013. So from my standpoint, we're spot on where we would have expected to be. Gregg, do you want to comment on the Sobeys relationship?

Gregg W. Steinhafel

Analyst · Deborah Weinswig with Citigroup

Yes, we're excited about the Sobeys relationship. There isn't really a lot to share at this point in time. I mean, we're developing a partnership with them as we are other key third-party providers as part of our Canadian market entry strategy. We're working hard right now in building out our team. We're working on our supply chain, both physically and the replenishment aspects of that and then the technology platform. So we know we've got a very good team in place. We're working very fast and furiously to make sure that we're ready to go, and we open our first cycle of stores in Q1 of 2013.

Shane Palahicky

Analyst · Deborah Weinswig with Citigroup

And so just on that technology side, are you guys using some of the technology that you have in the States or does it have to be a kind of totally different platform?

Gregg W. Steinhafel

Analyst · Deborah Weinswig with Citigroup

We're using a different platform. We're using the SAP platform in Canada. Now we are also using an SAP platform for a portion of our business here domestically in the United States.

Douglas A. Scovanner

Analyst · Deborah Weinswig with Citigroup

But effectively, you should think of this as a blank sheet of paper approach, building from scratch.

Operator

Operator

. Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Klinefelter with Piper Jaffray.

Jeffrey P. Klinefelter - Piper Jaffray Companies, Research Division

Analyst · Jeff Klinefelter with Piper Jaffray

Just a couple of quick questions. One, Gregg, in terms of e-commerce, just following up on that, given that, that business has likely experienced some deterioration in growth the last few quarters, what has been the comp impact from e-commerce this year versus last year? Is that -- thinking about this as you get some of these things fixed in terms of the technology, is that a comp opportunity next year? And then also, Kathy, refining the question about the competitive environment a little bit, I'm thinking about toys and electronics as 2 potential categories of share gain this year, just given the comparisons from last year. Do you view those the same way as opportunities? And is anything happening competitively with Walmart in terms of their approach to toys, for example, that would make your share recapture more challenging?

Gregg W. Steinhafel

Analyst · Jeff Klinefelter with Piper Jaffray

Yes, the comp impact even before we entered the period of a transformation was relatively immaterial. And as you point out, there's been a slight deceleration during this time frame. As we fix and become more experienced with the site, we expect to get back to where we were in the past. But overall, it is not a meaningful layer on top of our store-based business at this time in terms of comp impact.

Kathryn A. Tesija

Analyst · Jeff Klinefelter with Piper Jaffray

And Jeff, to answer your question on the competition in particularly in Toys and Electronics, yes, of course, we go into every year trying to grow our market share. I would tell you Toys is off to a slow start, and I think that's going to be a bit of an uphill climb for us this year, although we're still optimistic about the rest of the fourth quarter. Our in stocks are fabulous. Our toy catalog is great. We have over $350 of coupons in that catalog, so more to be seen on that. And then in terms of Electronics, we are feeling pretty confident. We've seen good results so far. It's been strengthening as the year's gone on. And the categories that are great for gift giving are ones that we're strong in. So whether that's e-readers or iPads or the iPod, we've got a lot of strength there.

Jeffrey P. Klinefelter - Piper Jaffray Companies, Research Division

Analyst · Jeff Klinefelter with Piper Jaffray

Kathy, what do you think it is in Toys that's presenting the challenge this season?

Kathryn A. Tesija

Analyst · Jeff Klinefelter with Piper Jaffray

Well, I think Walmart Layaway program has certainly hurt us in November. It still remains to be seen if that continues or if that is just a November issue. But I also think guests are still researching. We see a lot of that on our own site, researching what it is they want to buy. And so we haven't really seen the season kick off yet.

Gregg W. Steinhafel

Analyst · Jeff Klinefelter with Piper Jaffray

I'd also add, Jeff, and I think you're see a little bit of the early Black Friday hype in the fact that in these more seasonally sensitive categories, the more people talk about Black Friday, the more of a perception that there is that perhaps, broadly, you can wait on some of these categories because the deals are going to get better, which really isn't true. But there is a perception out there, and there's a lot of discussion and a lot of other retailers release their Black Friday ads early, and so there is some comparison shopping going on. And unfortunately, it's amounting to doing more business in a shorter period of time, but that's just the way the market place has evolved.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Colin McGranahan with Bernstein. Colin McGranahan - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division: Just 2 quick follow-ups. First on Canada, what was driving the somewhat higher fourth quarter estimate of the operating start-up costs there? And in general, how are you progressing with hiring? So that's the first question. And then second, on credit, it looks like the net write-off ratio of 5.7% is approaching some of the lowest charge-off ratios that, that business has really ever experienced. With the better credit quality of the REDcard holders, where would you expect that to be bottoming out?

Douglas A. Scovanner

Analyst · Colin McGranahan with Bernstein

First on the Canada side, from our point of view, we're dealing with a fairly trivial timing issue. Given the precision with which our Canada efforts are being followed, I understand why this is -- I understand partially why this is a matter of such keen interest. I would say that from a timing standpoint, it's in the SG&A side of the equation, not depreciation, amortization or interest expense. There, we have a combination of legal expenses, wages and benefits and consulting expenses, and those are certainly difficult to pin down with great precision. Put in round numbers, I'd say looking forward, you should expect to see maybe a $20 million increase, give or take, in the segment in Q4, and additionally, the Q3 interest expense of $15 million as a part quarter impact of the last round of stores, so maybe that rises to $20 million or so. So in the aggregate, that takes you to kind of the single-point estimate that's in the middle of our $0.07 to $0.09 a share in the quarter. On your question regarding credit quality, yes, certainly, the accounts that we have underwritten in the past couple of years, even beginning quite a bit earlier than the national rollout of 5% Rewards, are accounts that we would or vintages that we would expect to mature at somewhat lower write-off rates than prior vintages. By the way, we're only focusing on the write-offs, so that means they're also likely to mature at somewhat lower gross finance charge revenue yields than prior vintages. But sticking with the write-off rate discussion, hard to predict exactly where the net write-off rate will balance, will optimize, but we're clearly on track to have it balanced at levels that will test or go beyond, in a favorable sense, go beyond where we have ever been before.

Gregg W. Steinhafel

Analyst · Colin McGranahan with Bernstein

On the Canadian hiring front, it is going as we have planned thus far. We have worked hard at defining our employment brand. We've been on campus. We've been talking about Target and the employment opportunities both in the stores and in our field operations and at headquarters. We have a lot of positions to hire. This is going to be a Canadian company run by Canadians, and so we're spending a lot of time making sure that we educate the Canadians that we're looking to hire. We're spending a lot of time with casual get-togethers. We're on campus. We made offers. Our acceptance rate has been very good so far. So we're feeling good with where we are right now. We know that this will be an ongoing endeavor for us as we bring people on and sequence them over the next 12 months. So, so far, so good. We've got a great team up in Canada already, and they're really doing an outstanding job, and we're excited that many Canadians are really, really interested in coming to work for Target. So, so far, there's been a lot of interest in Target, and we take that as a very good sign. Colin McGranahan - Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Research Division: Great. And then finally, Doug, congratulations on your pending retirement. Would you care to use this public forum to maybe discuss that decision a little?

Douglas A. Scovanner

Analyst · Colin McGranahan with Bernstein

It is a decision that I did not take lightly. It's something that I've been looking forward to for quite some time. My head remains very deeply in this equation here at Target. And I intend to make this transition as smooth as I possibly can in handing the baton over to my successor.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Robert Drbul with Barclays Capital.

Robert S. Drbul - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst · Robert Drbul with Barclays Capital

Just a couple of quick questions for me. First, on the more mature PFresh stores, have you been able to tweak the store offerings and marketing to drive fill-in trips at all? And then the second question I have is could you elaborate a little bit more on the improvement that you've experienced in the Home category and what you've seen there?

Gregg W. Steinhafel

Analyst · Robert Drbul with Barclays Capital

Yes. We're pleased with our performance in PFresh stores as we cycle. And as we add more and more stores, when we get market density, we're able to market more broadly to the market rather than just geotargeting the marketing around the stores that are opening. So now that we have good density, you're going to see more broad marketing campaigns, market-by-market. Year 2 performance is still performing as planned. We're making changes and adjustments in terms of mix and space within the store, very typical to what we would normally do when we make a change of this magnitude, and we continue to see good results in year 2 in our PFresh stores.

Kathryn A. Tesija

Analyst · Robert Drbul with Barclays Capital

And in terms of Home, we continue to make progress in our Home business even though this is the most discretionary area of our store. As I said earlier, we had a very strong Back-to-School, Back-to-College. Our Housewares and Stationery business has been very solid, and we're also making progress in discretionary areas like Domestics and Decorative Home. So we believe that the changes we've made, both in assortment and presentation, position us for continued success in Home, but I would tell you that we still see that progress will be a bit slow and uneven given the economic conditions that we're in.

Robert S. Drbul - Barclays Capital, Research Division

Analyst · Robert Drbul with Barclays Capital

Great. And then just my last question is, during the quarter, did the Missoni launch in business meaningfully impact the comp or the gross margin that's worth calling out on the numbers?

Gregg W. Steinhafel

Analyst · Robert Drbul with Barclays Capital

Yes, certainly both directly and indirectly, those were both benefits. But to the quarter's aggregate numbers, not at all meaningful. Okay, we have time for one more call.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Chris Horvers with JPMorgan. Christopher Horvers - JP Morgan Chase & Co, Research Division: I wanted to follow up on Bob's Home question. It was positive in September. I know you mentioned Back-to-School and Back-to-College, and then it slowed down again. Could you maybe talk about how much Missoni helped Home in that month versus perhaps the halo effect of traffic as you brought in a lot of excitement to the stores? And then bigger picture, do you think there's any read-through about who is shopping the Home category, the 95% or the other time outside of when you have the traffic event that Missoni was?

Douglas A. Scovanner

Analyst · Chris Horvers with JPMorgan

I'll take the first layer of that one and Kathy can follow up for clarity. First of all, I think, certainly as everyone is aware, we have a huge and hugely profitable Home business, and I think in our zeal to be precise, we may have inadvertently misled a little bit. When results year-over-year are essentially flat and they're slightly better than flat and we say favorable and about $1.52 worse than flat, we say lower than prior, we're just crossing over an interesting boundary, but sales were neither hugely positive in September nor hugely negative afterward. I would call the whole period and individual components flat, flat to prior on a huge and hugely profitable business.

Kathryn A. Tesija

Analyst · Chris Horvers with JPMorgan

And in terms of the guests that shop in Home, I would tell you it's the same guest that has been shopping in Home, and particularly is our best guest, better and best guest. I think the changes that we've made in presentation about merchandising by component instead of by brand, has helped make the category a bit more compelling. And then just the content itself, you've seen us reinvent our own brands. Room Essentials was the first one, Smith & Hawken, we launched a little over a year ago, and Target Home has been evolving. So I think that's where we're starting to gain some strength. Clearly, we've had strength on our good brands and best brands, and it's been increasing on the better side.

Gregg W. Steinhafel

Analyst · Chris Horvers with JPMorgan

Thanks, Kathy. That concludes Target's Third Quarter 2011 Earnings Conference Call. Thank you all for your participation.

Operator

Operator

Thank you for participating in today's conference call. You may now disconnect.