Saum Sutaria
Analyst · Cantor Fitzgerald. Please proceed with your question.
Yes, well, I think inpatient utilization is building and growing, primarily because of two fundamental things in the marketplace. One is just the consistent growth in the aging population and especially with respect to those that have chronic diseases. I mean, that trend hasn't stopped. And it's a fundamental tailwind for the hospital sector in my belief, at least into the early part of the next decade, if you just look at the demographics. And then, you have the second issue, which it's kind of the unfortunate consequence that happened with COVID where you had a million premature deaths that actuarially would have in their last five years of life, most of those people would have ended up succumbing to some other disease over a five year period, but they all died up front. And the number is probably even larger than that. And so, what's happening is, I think every year you have more people aging into that, "That last five years of life." So, you would just naturally expect five years of recovery after the beginning of COVID. I mean, that's just mathematically and actuarially seems pretty simple to me to understand. It's a question of how you then as a provider manage your physician, staffing physical capacity in order to service that demand. And I think that's what we're seeing right now. I don't see the utilization dropping over time. I just see it kind of reaching steady state at some point. And then, we build from there mostly just on the population growth side. I do think that there are a few things that are outsized effects currently. And that's primarily, in my view, driven by Medicaid redetermination. And the impact of that Medicaid down, exchange up from a volume perspective, I'm not sure I could quantify it perfectly is less profound than from an earnings perspective because obviously, the reimbursement rates on the exchange book in that conversion are more attractive than what you would have seen on the Medicaid side. And so, it's helping, obviously, improve the earnings profile in the acute care hospitals. We see less of this whole effect, by the way, at USPI. And again, that goes back to why we believe the diversification of our business units. I mean, it was -- I'm purposely looking ahead and frankly looking at the uncertainty in the environment, political and regulatory. I like the diversification of the business units because, the ability to figure out a way to succeed in almost any environment in the next three years, four years, is something we're going to have to figure out how to do.