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Millicom International Cellular S.A. (TIGO)

Q1 2017 Earnings Call· Wed, Apr 26, 2017

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Millicom Financial Results Conference Call. Today’s presentation will be hosted by Chief Executive Officer, Mauricio Ramos; and Tim Pennington, Chief Financial Officer. Following the formal presentation by Millicom’s management, an interactive Q&A session will be available. I would now like to hand the call over to Michel Morin, Millicom’s Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Michel Morin

Management

Thanks Trish. And hello everyone and welcome to Millicom’s first quarter 2017 results conference call. As usual, the results will be presented by our Chief Executive, Mauricio Ramos; and by our CFO, Tim Pennington. And before we begin, let me draw your attention to the Safe Harbor on Slide 2 of the presentation. So, with that let me hand it over to Mauricio for his remarks.

Mauricio Ramos

Chief Executive Officer

Thank you Michel. Good morning or good afternoon to all, and welcome to our Q1 call. As always, I am here today with Tim Pennington, our CFO. We are also formally welcoming Michel Morin as our new head of investor relations. Most of you know Michel from his time at Morgan Stanley. We are very happy to have him join the team. So please join me in saying welcome to Michel. And before we get started, I would also like to thank David Boyd for his great work during his interim time with us. Thank you very much David. So now onto our Q1. Let us first recap the basic strategy. So it is present in our minds. One, we are rapidly building high-speed data networks, both mobile and fixed. You all know that. Two, we are undertaking a two-fold reconfiguration of our business at the same time. The revenue reconfiguration is about focusing squarely on mobile data, fiber cable and B2B to drive our future growth, and of course to help offset the decline of the legacy mobile voice business. And the cost reconfiguration, the second part is about focusing our spend to drive efficiency and deliver superior cash flow growth. And in complement to this and as you know, we are transforming our IT stack to enable convergence and provide a truly digital customer experience. This is [Indiscernible] in terms of strategic approach. During [two months] we made a lot of great progress and we would like to share some of that with you today. So let us get to it. The first message today is that we have increased the rate at which we are deploying our high-speed data networks. We are just getting better and better at it every quarter. On the left hand side of…

Tim Pennington

CFO

Thank you, Mauricio. Before I go through the numbers let me start by saying a few words on the economic outlook for the key markets we operate in. Twelve months ago we saw slowing economic growth, weakening exchange rates and rising inflation. I think today we face a much less threatening economic outlook. I wouldn't say the economies are robust, but they are generally steady. Looking at the charts on the left-hand side of this slide you see that economic growth forecast has stabilized around the 2% to 4% in all of our Latam markets. On the top right, highlights of welcome stability in the Colombian peso. In fact it is 5% stronger than it was a year ago, but more importantly for us it has been fairly steady now for some time. And the graph below that shows inflation, which has fallen quite rapidly from the highs in the summer and it was around 9% to today’s rates of under 5%. So let me turn now to the key financial metrics, service revenue, EBITDA and CapEx. We are maintaining our guidance on these metrics, and as Mauricio has outlined, we feel very comfortable with the underlying trends in the business, albeit the headline numbers need a bit of explanation. Service revenue was down 1.5% year-on-year, but I will show in the next slide this was almost entirely due to Africa. EBITDA was flat and we saw positive momentum in Colombia, Paraguay and Costa Rica, dragged back largely by challenges in Central America. But, our margin continues to improve and the focus on capital allocation and project Heat are delivering results on the cash flow. Okay, turning first to service revenue. This slide is showing you the bridge from the service revenue growth in Q4 2016 to Q1 2017. First…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We will now take our first question which comes from Julio Arciniegas of RBC. Please go ahead.

Julio Arciniegas

Analyst · RBC. Please go ahead

Yes, hello, thanks for taking the question. Two questions please, the cable deployment has been accelerating this quarter, we are near now 300k, what should we think about the run rate in the future, and more, who are the challenges to go above the one million homes that basically the company is guiding. And my second question is more related to Colombia, in Colombia, homes connected, they have been reducing by seeing your new disclosure, but this should improve cable deployment advances, where should we see positive net adds in Colombia? Thanks.

Mauricio Ramos

Chief Executive Officer

Julio, thanks for the questions, and I am just take them in the order in which you put them. We have guided in 2017 for about a million homes built, and you have seen us consistently speed up, get better, got built quarter upon quarter and we just have a quarter in which as I said earlier, we got quite a bit of homes. We think the runway is somewhere around there, somewhere around a million homes, other cable homes per year. That's about what we seek from machinery point of view we can sustain and continue to sell and fill at the same time. And as you've seen we are filling our network, we've articulated this normally before and if you do some math and the numbers were showing today, you'll realize that it is a good mix between these parts fill rate at a pretty parts fill rate. We're building about a million and filling about 18% to 20% if you do some back of the envelope math there. 12 months out, which is both the rates are pretty good. The challenge is going forward, have to do largely with the usual construction crews, training them per minute, getting them out there. Again these are pretty fast rate and we are continuing to look for ways or speeding it up. As a matter of fact, key point here is that we're seeing pent up demand for these services, broadband and plenty of meat just about everywhere we operate. So, we continue look for A) ways to ramp up the machine and B) Just this pocket of growth everywhere that we will like to guard and build and fill. That's the answer on table across the market. And on Columbia you're right, there's a couple of elements there in the short term that’s having negative effect that we will wash out over time. One is for the quarter, specifically the combination of CISCO reform, the value added tax and our price increase. These darken sales a little bit in January and February. They said earlier March was pretty strong and April continues to be pretty strong. So, that sensitivity to the price increases and the value added tax is now washing away and we're now on positive territory in terms of net adds in Columbia. The second point which I also alluded to which is important for you all to have in mind is around the quite a bit of cocoa clumps in Columbia. We're doing it for strategic reasons to retain subscribers but also will be able to offer a bundle there. And as a result of that there are what I have described us as copper cutters in the past in to this system. But our build rate and our fill rate is such that in Columbia we're not in positive territory.

Julio Arciniegas

Analyst · RBC. Please go ahead

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We'll now move to our next question which comes from Sumit Dhaka of New Street Research. Please go ahead.

Sumit Dhaka

Analyst · New Street Research. Please go ahead

Hi yes, had a couple of questions please. One on the pilot deal in Paraguay, I was just interested in why the timing, I guess you've been sitting on tiles across the region for a number of years now. What prompted that decision and how many more towers do you have across the portfolio? What could we expect going forward? And just a final piece of detail on that. Could you give us some sense to the yield on the tower deal, the in fact will see on the even that financial charges will be very helpful. Thank you. And then, secondly on Columbia you talked about the potential impact of MVNO changes on the wireless business. Could you give a bit more sense as to what you're thinking about there? Something like it could be putting revenues on the pressure going forward. What exactly do you think will play out over the next few quarters? Thank you.

Mauricio Ramos

Chief Executive Officer

Sure, so on the power deal and the rational is what you would expect in terms of knocking capital as I describe, allocating that capital elsewhere. Becoming more focused and efficient being a paper white business and financially we saw some more point that we put that cost into liquid currency, so that it's more of a natural hedge there for us to do. From a statistic point-of-view there comes a pointing time being which or model operators have deployed such large networks into a market place that only a number of times no longer give even many positive critical advantage. And as a result of that, that point in time comes where you're better off on marking that capital and focusing on your core business while also driving some local currency exposure. We still have in Latin America some 10,000 towers you would take, this stopped at the back of my mind, and you would take. Now, when or how or if we would do similar deals is not something that we're ready to discuss at this point in time, and Africa as you're aware are really went out and showed years ago when we put the towers into HDA.

Tim Pennington

CFO

Sir, just on the just add a couple of more points on this one. I mean, the other thing till here I would say is that we is the timing of this, you don’t pick a timing, these are capital discipline exercises if the numbers arrive and go with it, if the numbers don’t write we don’t go with it. And you asked about the year, we don’t sort of but for disclosing the yield exactly but in the local currency pronouncing in Paraguay costs us north to 10% today. While as this would give us effectively mid-to-low single digit so yield on. So, it really is this will move out extremely well on an NPV basis which is why we push the button on it. That was good?

Mauricio Ramos

Chief Executive Officer

Yes. So, and on the MTM question, changes into realization our land to provide a more stable environment for MVNOs to have this duality over beginning on rates. We don’t speck that you would have a huge impact on ours going forward strategically. MVNO we named a small part of the mobile market place in Columbia. And moving quaintly, we ourselves have been very open to MVNOs and whole stop I feel then simply because we have a large combining network with our recurring cannot so accretive revenue to us.

Sumit Dhaka

Analyst · New Street Research. Please go ahead

Okay, that's very clear. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, very much. We will now move to our next question which comes from Bergae Telovisky of Gabriel and Company. Please go ahead, your line is now open.

Bergae Telovisky

Analyst · Gabriel and Company. Please go ahead, your line is now open

Good morning. Thank you for taking the questions. Two questions. One on the spectrum position. Would you talk a little bit about your current spectrum position in your key markets and whether there are any, I think it's kind of spectrum options coming up and how are you interesting kind of the growth in data demand your spectrum position for the next few years. And second question. Mauricio, could you remind us of your M&A philosophy as you look at various markets, as you look at potential SSLs.

Mauricio Ramos

Chief Executive Officer

On spectrum and we don’t have any immediate urgent needs just about anywhere. In Columbia, we do have are very well aware a handicap which is we have historically not had access to all frequency bands, and there is a process with spectrum just starting in Columbia which on the positive side truly provide access for us. Or should provide access for us to those bands. That's probably that's starting. It's got some issues and now it doesn't really do anything to outsell for the unbalanced marketplace with one very dominant player in there. And withstanding process and whether when and what final condition will be still early and difficult to tell. We would hope that certainly helps us solve in good terms for the handicap that we have in all frequency bands and it does something to level the playing field there. There is an ongoing processes on AWS in Guatemala that continue to get delayed and delayed. We have now Virgin hero spectrum there. And in power wise that there may be something towards the end of the year or again the turning of this turning to special years. As per the later cycles comes to an end, usually tends to deal to eight. On an M&A philosophy, we're extremely disciplined. The M&A, the first and most important thing is to not get yourself in trouble and we think in that logic we have plenty of opportunities to start with in markets and even in my all the positions that we know well. So, we are focused on in country in field and more than anything else and if there will be interesting opportunities in adjacent geographies would be very careful. And you can imagine that we monitor them, I know them and have contacts into all of…

Bergae Telovisky

Analyst · Gabriel and Company. Please go ahead, your line is now open

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We'll now move to our next question which comes from Lena Osterberg of Carnegie. Please go ahead, ma’am. Hello. I got some questions on Africa. First of all, on Tanzania, I was wondering what's the progress on the ownership dispute and also the IPO. Unless you say that you are sort of subject to any potential find and what price it could be. And then I was also curious to find out when you expect approval for Senegal and Ghana.

Mauricio Ramos

Chief Executive Officer

So, how about quick crack at those and between and Tim will good near has here with some of the more detailed questions. So, they are. The IPO requirement in Tanzania it's unfolding. We have some new way. A competitor of ours is allocating its own process first and we have leeway making it surely to go grindant later on in the yes. That success of initial IPO by one of our competitors is still just to be a turning and the process is ongoing. And in the meantime, because you're going to make process just to make sure that everything around the requirements or are being able to draw that deal is fully in place and continue very dollar rate for our timing to be sometime in the second quarter after the first one have occurred. That was Tanzania.

Tim Pennington

CFO

I think mostly, I think to some extend that is going to be intertwined with legal case, there is a hearing next week. Obviously, there's no we will not be considering any sort of capital sort of raising transaction without settlement of this particular case. Here we have lot of face in the Tanzania, just this departments that the illegal process there. So, with a bit of luck, this will be sorted out sometime during the second quarter. They don’t after it is subject to the low of the land has been now indication of some choose as a rezone in one hardly that just started the process for IPO, unless IPO's give and take time. Though we are working sort of positively with the Tanzania power authorities and we'll approach the IPO acts. Now, as and when appropriate subject to these other issues.

Mauricio Ramos

Chief Executive Officer

I got on the approvals that you had also asked before we forget about that we have engaged the corresponding governance of both countries and we received very positive feedback. They both understand good nature of these deals for the countries and that’s been informal and good positive feedback and of course the former processes are now underway and we expect that we will formally, closing new time. It's hard to give you specific quarter sense of that but it's moving along and progressing past as expected.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now move to our next question which comes from Thomas Heath of Danske Bank. Please go ahead.

Thomas Heath

Analyst · Danske Bank. Please go ahead

Thank you. Thomas Heath here. A few questions if I may. Firstly on El Salvador which is unfortunate net situation is there anything to do there is there any way to be creative to remedy that or can we just hope for comps to eventually to get better on a smaller network if you say. Secondly, on the Tanzania listing which you talked about the legal case that’s about you can subscribe shares there has been discussion about only local buyers for shares which of course would be unfortunate. And then, thirdly on Ghana is there any mechanism in place to exit that asset any protocol options? Thank you.

Tim Pennington

CFO

I was going to quickly say on the network situation and I will start with El Salvador, I mean as there are all technical solutions that we are working as an industry to put Ghana into in and around the prison into more complicated technical solutions they might appear but I understand progress is being made on that and we don't expect this to be a forever in a day situation but it has taken longer than we perhaps hope to this stage.

Mauricio Ramos

Chief Executive Officer

I think, what I would add to -- which I think is important is as last year the situation there was permeated of course by the political impact and media impact that this matter is having on El Salvador and there were some friction between the government and the industry, the mobile industry. We moved very quickly to put together a joint table with government and all the operators which we largely held together. To try and come out jointly in a coordinated manner we as well very well put better solutions more creative solutions and result of that now we have about very good ongoing dialogue with the government and we think that will help this kind of situation to be much, much more proactively managed going forward because we are simply jointly helping solve the problem. On Ghana the purpose of our venture with Airtel is to help drive much needed industry consolidation, better economics into a business that would be important in size. That’s the first step. The first step is to get the synergies recomposed the business and of course as with everything else will do, we will then of course have a very capital oriented, very disciplined manner to what second step may look like. And yes, and if there is additional on the Tanzania listing I think we [indiscernible] as we are holding the second part.

Tim Pennington

CFO

I think the Tanzania part is mandate that it Tanzania only invested in IPOs, some published fee, I am guessing that it's going to come, is asking for that to be extended to international. We don't have that officially. It's purely speculation in the market but, we opposition has been that it should be opened to international investments as well as local investors but we will wait and see what happens with that.

Thomas Heath

Analyst · Danske Bank. Please go ahead

Just to clarify was that the court case that you legally said that you…

Tim Pennington

CFO

No that’s something different. That is basically we have a shareholder, well he is not a shareholder someone who is sort of comes himself on the register and we are taking legal means to remove him from our shareholding register.

Thomas Heath

Analyst · Danske Bank. Please go ahead

That’s helpful. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now move to our next question which comes from Johanna Ahlqvist of SEB. Please go ahead.

Johanna Ahlqvist

Analyst · SEB. Please go ahead

Yes, hello. Two questions if I may. First one on Africa again, given what is happening now in [Chad], how do you sort of foresee the development going forward from – in Chad, well should we expect impact for sustain for the full-year and that you will basically have just small number of EBITDA growth for the remainder of 2017 in Africa and then secondly back to Paraguay and sort of tower deal you made can you say anything how will that impact CapEx and OpEx going forward because I guess you will have some CapEx savings related to this and then you need to pay something on the OpEx side? Thank you.

Mauricio Ramos

Chief Executive Officer

It's always been a fairly volatile place Chad and Q4 was fantastic revenue growth. Q1 has been hit. So we will adjust to Chad that said the EBITDA remain strong but the cash flow remains very good. So I think it's one have to write down for maybe for few quarters but it's a full focus on Africa in terms of cash flow and margin improvement that continues.

Tim Pennington

CFO

On a product wise this is your usual solid deal meaning it's that we have already said which I won’t repeat, it does have a positive [MPV] to us which naturally comes from the nature of this tower deals and of course to share that infrastructure. It does give us positive or marginally positive impact on EBITDA and CapEx of course and it comes more efficient use of the towers and as a result of that we have this small MPV cash accretive asset and more important element of course, they’re mass capital and local debt on the business.

Johanna Ahlqvist

Analyst · SEB. Please go ahead

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now move to our next question which comes from Kevin Roe of Roe Equity Research. Please go ahead.

Kevin Roe

Analyst · Roe Equity Research. Please go ahead

Thank you. Tim, are there any additional potential tax or regulatory developments that you are monitoring that could impact 2017 and Mauricio turning back to Columbia can you update us on competitive HFC bills and now you are positioning HFC products when there is a competitive alternative? Thanks.

Tim Pennington

CFO

Okay, quickly then on tax. It's a difficult question because our country in which we operate in are constantly tinkering the tax reform. I think the only big one that we are monitoring is that Guatemala it looks to be delayed at the present time as the Columbia tax reforms was implemented in the beginning of the year and I don't expect anything more from that. There is nothing major in the rest of Latin America that it's causing along those and in Africa frankly it's always challenging in Africa. The Chad VAT increase came out of the blue from us in this quarter and so I wouldn't mind to kind of find that but there is nothing major on my radar at the present time.

Mauricio Ramos

Chief Executive Officer

Kevin, on the Columbia and the cable product if you will there and to build the opportunity there. Colombia had effectively an alternative HFC network by one of our competitors which houses some 6 million to 7 million homes to rotate and that information is currently available from our competitors and of course there are areas in which there is a dealer sale network. Historically there has been limited investment in those alternative DSR networks and the size of the alternative HFC build, it is one that still gives a lot of room for our deal to occur. Let me explain what I mean by that. Columbia is a country of [indiscernible] you take some 4 million to 5 million give or take, which yields £10 million to £12 million in our marketplace. Again, depending on what assumptions you make and what is the exact number of people per dwelling is, so call it 10 to 12 and Columbia is an increasingly urban society and the latest number show that it will be 90% to 95% earning from five years from today which is important and it’s loaded with medium sized city, very decentralized although Bogota is big it is similar to the U.S. in the sense that you have lot of small and medium size cities where [indiscernible] urban cities that are continuously growing and so when you look at what you would expect on HFC network to color which you would take for example of why we open this -- almost 70% to 80% HFC of the entire homes available in the country which would of course mean the Columbia would then double, or so many million homes build and I will give you an idea of what the opportunity lies with basically to have million homes in…

Kevin Roe

Analyst · Roe Equity Research. Please go ahead

That’s very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now move to our next question which comes from Bill Miller of Hartwell. Please go ahead, your line is now open.

Bill Miller

Analyst · Hartwell. Please go ahead, your line is now open

Mauricio, it has been now there two years or little bit plus and I wondered if you could take us through the next two or three years and give us what you think the profile of Millicom will be at that time?

Mauricio Ramos

Chief Executive Officer

I think you should and that’s a great question that you should all expect us to become increasingly broaden and that mean we have laid our strategy, strategy is working. It’s all about building the 4G and high speed data networks, every quarter we build and we sell and we give you the out-clues and there is some subscriber count that we are having and that is showing as we will continue to show and that strategy is working and we are effectively region figuring the revenue next obvious business. It will be two years up from today a data centric business conversing business with 4G high speed data and HFC high speed data networks and a data-centric converge product, everywhere we operate in America with a lot more revenue coming from data and a lot more revenue coming from subscription that what it is today for sure. And you expect us to as a result of that continue to drive our margins outlook cash-flow and EBITDA as we have done so far and because we continue to deploy initiatives around heat and you can expect us to take more in field opportunities in the market we operate and very carefully look out on those in-field opportunities into our adjacent opportunities as we reconfigure the business into being a data-centric conversion place in a market we operate. If you look at what we have got basically a strategy that looks a team that is gaining more provisional momentum strongly we’re hitting them just all cylinders, we are making on the right capital decisions moving out of areas where we’ve got stronger capital and we are deploying it everywhere we possibly can and we will continue to look for opportunities where we can grow and that’s where we are driving the business.

Tim Pennington

CFO

If I could add much I mean I think and I think it's a great question. I see that our vision really that in two to three years time we will have the state of the art high speed internet network whether the customer wants it by fixed all or by mobile. And our customer base will be increasingly sort of speaking will be more sort of contract based revenue and that will win high value customers so I think the direction we are traveling in gives us that huge opportunity given where we are with the great mobile positions and the growing cable positions. I hope that’s kind of helpful.

Bill Miller

Analyst · Hartwell. Please go ahead, your line is now open

It's very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We will now take our next question which comes from Mathew [indiscernible] of Barclays. Please go ahead sir.

Unidentified Analyst

Analyst

Good afternoon. Thank you for taking the questions. So first I had a question with regards to 4G, you highlight how network progression has been in the last quarters. I was wondering if in Latin America you could give us a sense of how you compare with your peers and also lean to 4G. I mean the fact that you also investing in cable network and fixed infrastructure is that helping you to build better 4G network. I mean are there synergies there something that may be some place competitors cannot copy. So that’s the kind of the first question. In terms of other question Ghana, could you share with us how this venture is going to contribute to the group? I understand you are not going to consolidate any more on accounting, but I mean are you expecting to get dividends out of this venture or other things your management fees, etcetera, etcetera. And then lastly on Bolivia I saw that [indiscernible] have increased as you highlighted in your press release. Can you give us a little bit more color there? Thank you.

Mauricio Ramos

Chief Executive Officer

Before we start, this is going to have to be the last question given it's quite a lot in there. Sure. Let me address if you will, the more strategic ones on 4G and fiber and all how that plays out. Down the road strategically it will be a bit for consumers and our job as a company will be to deliver that bid in the most cost efficient manner to that consumer whether it's on his or her mobile tablet or at home. And as a result of that a high speed data eccentric outlook in Latin America and everywhere else will require a conversational operator to have high speed internet that works both on fixed and mobile and that is more strategic reason to do this is just to be cable to be there. In the meantime 4G is most advanced technology that is helping us drive consumers into high speed data products and all of this large number of fibers that we keep bringing in our quarterly basis for 100,000 this quarter, a run rate of 2.5, the reason they are coming in with such higher outputs is because they increase their consumption once the network is there and this is the key point and I hope we’re driving it sufficiently clear. The pickup in offer is driven by higher consumption on a quite stable price -- so subscribers that have access to the network on a 4G network on an average or prepaid subscribers takes up about just North of 2gigabyte per month where the average is less than 1.5 so there is a pickup in consumption that drives output. Now that’s the sort of run way if you will as to how building a fixed network supports your 4G network if you look at building a 4G network, if you look out building a 4G network underneath or sort of building that cable network underneath your 4G network helps you with the delivery of that big in the short term because the faster you upload that base from the 4G network onto your fiber backlog, the more efficient you are as a operator and better you can drive outputs. And if you fast forward not into 4G but into 5G and it doesn’t matter how hard it is in Latin America, 5G is effectively fiber technology. The more fiber you have in the ground the closer you are to the deploying 5G, that’s true for 4G but it's even more true for 5G so I think deploying fiber tube on network is way of preempting full proofing the future on more 4G than 5G. I hope that was very clear to you. It [indiscernible] strategically and offers the product.

Tim Pennington

CFO

Thank you. I mean, clearly we consolidated in the financial accounts. It will still contribute through its composition as net income and yes obviously we would like to see it generating some dividends to us but cash flow and repatriation will be by dividend going forward. And on the Bolivia spectrum issue, there are whole lot of moving parts in Bolivia this quarter but one of them -- and this is largely in accounting reclassification from CapEx to OpEx so now the spectrum fee has gone up particularly it was more of re-class, I hope that covers.

A - Mauricio Ramos

Analyst

Thank you. We are going to hand back to the operator to close the call.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Yes ladies and gentlemen unfortunately that is all the time we have available for questions. I would now like to handle the call back to Mr. Ramos for any closing remarks. Please go ahead sir.

Mauricio Ramos

Chief Executive Officer

Thank you very much. And thank you everybody for your attendance today. We are happy with Q1. We think it's putting us on track for the full year and more importantly it's right down what we want to and think will have a lot of impact doing strategically just dwelling our networks and [indiscernible] data customers. Thanks everybody.