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Millicom International Cellular S.A. (TIGO)

Q2 2024 Earnings Call· Fri, Aug 2, 2024

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Hello everyone and welcome to our Second Quarter 2024 Results Call. This event is being recorded. Our speakers today will be our CEO Marcelo Benitez; our COO Maxime Lombardini, and our CFO Bart Vanhaeren. The slides for today's presentation are available on our website, along with the earnings release and our financial statements. Now please turn to slide two for the Safe Harbor disclosure. We will be making forward-looking statements which involve risks and uncertainties, and these could have a material impact on our results. On slide three, we defined the non-IFRS metrics that we will be referencing today throughout the presentation, and you can find reconciliation tables in the back of our earnings release, as well as on our website. With those disclaimers out of the way, let me turn the call over to our CEO, Marcelo Benitez. Marcelo?

Marcelo Benitez

Management

Thanks, Michelle. And hello, everyone. Thanks for joining us to discuss the company's performance during the second quarter. This has been an outstanding quarter for us at Millicom. And before we begin, I want to express my heartfelt thanks to all the members of the TIGO team. We have strengthened TIGO’s market leadership and successfully implemented a more efficient platform to ensure the company's profitable growth for the years to come. Once again, a huge thank you. Now please turn to slide five for the highlights of the second quarter. The key highlight this quarter is our equity free cash flow, which reached $268 million and consistent with our current capital allocation priorities, we use this cash flow to reduce our net debt. So our leverage ended the quarter at 2.7 times, thanks also to the organic EBITDA growth of almost 20%, which is coming from continued growth in mobile and B2B business and from the very significant efficiencies that we have unlocked over the past year. During this quarter, we've also made significant progress on several strategic projects that have the potential to greatly improve EFCF and return on capital across the group for the years to come. Bart will give you an update on some of these projects toward the end of today's presentation. Now let's review each of these highlights in more detail, beginning with our mobile business on next slide. For a second consecutive quarter, mobile service revenue grew 5% in Q2. This is just an acceleration, compared to growth of just over 2% that we experienced during 2023. And there are four key drivers behind our stronger mobile growth this year. First, our network, we have invested in all our operations to enhance our mobile network capacity to support the growing demand of mobile data.…

Maxime Lombardini

Management

Thank you, Marcelo. First, I want to congratulate you on your appointment as CEO. The company is in good hands and it's a pleasure working with you and the team through the end of this year and to support you beginning in January from my role on the board. Now, onto efficiencies. As you know, it has been the area that I focused on immediately when I joined as CEO less than a year ago. [Indiscernible] was underway, but there was opportunity to grow well beyond the initial scope. Specifically, we focused on six key areas of opportunity as we prepare the budget for 2024. You can see these listed on the chart. We took action and implemented most of this during Q4 2023. And this is why we have been able to deliver such strong financial performance in the first-half of this year. Let me give you a few examples. We reduced by 24% the cost of centralized functions that generated no revenue. We reduced that count by more than 20% year-on-year, with reductions of between 15% and 30% in most geographies. As a result, total employee costs are down 15% organically, excluding restructuring costs. And we are not replacing employees with consultants. The contrary, we have also reduced spending on external services by more than 15%. Then we reviewed every programming and content agreement and every software license that we added, and we found opportunities to switch to lower-cost and in-house solutions or to drop some vendors completely. We successfully have negotiated many contracts. Overall, we have reduced our spending on programming by almost 20% and IT spend by more than 10%. And finally, you have seen that our CapEx has declined meaningfully. Most of this decline is the result of our focus on efficiency. Payback is now…

Bart Vanhaeren

Management

Thank you, Maxime. Now let's look at our financial performance beginning on slide 15. Service revenue was $1.36 billion in the quarter, this is up 5.5% year-on-year from $1.29 billion a year ago. For the second quarter in a row, we have some tailwinds coming from FX. Excluding these impacts, organic growth was 2.1% in the second quarter. And this is similar to our growth rate in recent periods when we exclude the large B2B projects in Panama. Our mobile business is up mid-single-digits, fueled by ARPU growth, while fixed and other services declined low-single-digits. The performance in fixed reflects mid-single-digit growth in B2B, which partially offset a mid-single-digit decline in our home business. EBITDA was up 23.1% year-on-year to $634 million. As indicated to you last quarter, restructuring and other one-off costs continued to be part of the business for a while and this quarter amounted up to $23 million. This is included within the $634 million of EBITDA we are not adjusting for it. The very strong growth reflects the combined effect of the service revenue growth I just discussed, but more importantly cost savings from our efficiency projects. Equity free cash flow for the quarter was $268 million, which compares to an outflow of $24 million in quarter two of last year. The significant improvement is coming primarily from the EBITDA growth that I just discussed, from a significant reduction in CapEx and from better working capital management. Regarding the CapEx, although we have benefited somewhat from a slower phasing of our CapEx spend this year, we continue to expect that our CapEx for the full-year 2024 will be significantly lower than in 2023. More specifically, we now expect full-year CapEx of less than $700 million, which means a reduction of more than $100 million, compared to…

Marcelo Benitez

Management

Thanks, Bart. Before we take your questions, I'd like to share with you the key priorities I've laid out for the second-half of this year. First, we must deliver on our 2024 targets. As you can see, we are well on our way, but there are still many risks that we have to navigate. Second, we need to execute on the strategic projects that Bart just talked about. Colombia and Costa Rica are the only two countries where we have not historically been able to grow our equity-free cash flow. And these projects should help us change this. Third, and as Maxime mentioned earlier, we are already taking steps to position the company to sustain and grow equity-free cash flow in 2025 and beyond. Now back to you, Michelle.

Operator

Operator

Thanks, Marcelo. We will now begin the Q&A session. And as a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, please let us know by emailing us at investors@millicom.com and we'll add you to the queue. Also, before we begin, we want to caution you that we cannot answer any questions about the ongoing tender offer process. And I simply want to remind everyone that all of the information related to this process is available on our website. We cannot provide any commentary or offer any legal interpretations of that information. So with that disclaimer out of the way, let's go to our first question from Andreas Jossen from Carnegie. Andreas?

Andreas Jossen

Analyst

Yes, good morning, good afternoon to everyone. Two questions from my side. First of all, on the long-term plan that you revealed a couple of weeks ago, just curious to see where you see the further improvements from where we are now, so to say, from the 600 levels, so to say, and up to the 2026 long-term target? And secondly, on the announcement this week on Colombia, you mentioned a little bit about it Bart, but the main rationality behind the plans and ambitions that you have is it to gain scale and from there grow the profitability or are you encouraged on what you have done yourself in Colombia and feel that you can do that for Coltel as well and improve profitability through synergies on that side? Thanks.

Marcelo Benitez

Management

Thank you very much, Andreas. I will take the first question, and I will let Bart to answer the second. We have still six months to go in 2024, so I prefer not to comment on ‘25 and ‘26 figures. But I think it's important for you to know how the process works. Every year we update our LRP, Long Range Plan. This is a very detailed update that is made with review with the countries and all the functional areas. It's also part of our impairment test in SOCs and auditors reviews it and they also challenge it. So it's a process that we do every year. And on the half of the year, what we do is basically we update, including the results of H1. So those are the numbers that you have seen that are out there. What I can tell you is this, we do believe one that our all operational initiatives, efficiencies initiatives are recurring and sustainable. As Maxime mentioned, these are all an evolution of our way of working. I mean, more focused and agile organization. So this is here to stay, right, in Millicom. Second, the benefits from all these initiatives are going to be reflected on a full-year run rate in ‘25 and ’26. So today we are still implementing this as you see. I mean we have severance in H1, we have a bit of severance also in H2, but on the coming years you will see the full effect. CapEx is going to grow a little bit, but very much in line with revenues and the focus on CapEx is going to be to strengthen our networks in order to capture the data growth in mobile and fixed. So with all that, we feel our view is that these levels of EFCF are sustainable over the coming years.

Bart Vanhaeren

Management

Thank you, Marcelo. Maybe also just to add on the mathematics, if you look at the EFCF for the second-half that would put us well on track for reaching that number for next year that's for the modeling guys. As it comes to Columbia, I would want to start with last year. We had a tough year last year. We capitalized together with our partner, the business, and at the same time launched a rigorous transformation plan, right. And so last year we were negative, very significant negative equity free cash flow transformed the business and well on our way to be nicely positive this year. So very strong in our organic business and full confidence ahead. Now the market is a challenging market where we have more than four mobile network operators, low ARPUs, high spectrum cost. So it's a tough environment. Market rationalization totally makes sense, combining the two business, synergy of scale, allowing them better returns, better financial stability of the company that will then allow to responsibly invest in the networks and ultimately in customer experience and then on its turn, translating to sustainably and profitable equity-free cash flow for Colombia. So it's a bit of a mix of scale, rationalization, and then creating a strong number two operator that is able to invest into the networks.

Andreas Jossen

Analyst

Perfect. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thanks, Andreas. So next we're going to go to Stefan Gauffin at BNB.

Stefan Gauffin

Analyst

Yes hello. Two questions if I may. And hi Marcelo, nice to see you. And I'll start with a question for you. You mentioned that you talk about the return focused investments to sustain market leadership and drive customer growth in the second-half of 2024? You also mentioned investments in Columbia in the home business, but this is specifically focused on home or is it both home and mobile? And then secondly, is it more broad based across markets so any information you can give me there? And then I have a question perhaps for Maxime, but feel free the others to jump in, but you say now that CapEx for this year will be below $700 million. A couple of years ago the guidance was for around $1 billion of CapEx on sort of a yearly basis. The lower CapEx is partly coming from a slowdown in the rollout of the fixed network and homes connected. So how should we think about the CapEx a little bit more medium term? I mean, this year we're talking more about 12% CapEx to sales, whereas historically more like 15%. So any guidance here on how we should think here? Thank you.

Marcelo Benitez

Management

Thank you, Stefan. Thanks for your questions. When we say return focus, what we mean is first, we believe that our network is the main driver for to capture this demand we see in mobile and fixed. And also it's a big driver for experience, right? So what we're doing is we're strengthening our fixed and mobile networks to capture this demand. And then after we go, I mean, after this first step, what we do basically is start to monetize this increase on demand in prepaid with very, very well planned price increases, then migration to postpaid, then convergence, that is the third step. And the same comes in fixed, right? Investment in networks, increase of speed, monetizing, developing our pool of the customers, and then it all ends up in convergence. So in Colombia, that's what we're doing. Last year was about focusing on short-term cash flow, but immediately we started to strengthen our fixed network. Then we started to see much more stable customer base, churn reducing, early churn reducing, and now we're ready to grow. So what we're doing is strengthening our commercial initiatives. We have more or less installed in the last four to five months 90 stores in Colombia that increase our capillarity and our reach to our postpaid customers. And we are working on all our channels in order to increase productivity and volume. So that's what you're going to see. And actually in Colombia, we are at the deflection point because in Q2, I mean, at the end of Q2, we start seeing net ads positive in home. And as you know, this is our largest home business in the group, right?

Bart Vanhaeren

Management

And then in terms of longer term CapEx, which I think was the other part of your questions that find as you know, and as Maxime said, there's been a lot of focus on efficiencies, not just on OpEx, but as well as on CapEx. And that's what you're seeing reflected in our performance this year. We obviously haven't given longer term guidance, but as Maxime said, a lot of what we've been doing over the past year is sustainable and recurring in nature.

Maxime Lombardini

Management

Just to complement, Stefan, on CapEx, we did something quite simple on the home. We focused on HFC upgrade. We had a strong feeling, which was that it was possible to get much more from the current footprint in terms of bandwidth. So it is something which has been partially done already that we will try to finish by the end of this year. And it provides immediate strong return for the current customers in terms of churn, in terms of satisfaction, and in terms of acquisition. It is one of the explanations why the KPIs on home are strongly improving. On mobile, we are focusing on network quality. Very important because the volume of data that our consumers are using is growing as you know, and we want to deliver a perfect service. So we are very selective on the payback of the new coverage, both on home and mobile. And we are doing on home the FTTH on a very practical way, not expanding everywhere, but really going where we have a need, because we have customers with a high option or because there is, we'd say, green fields where we have strong opportunities. And the last but not least, we have renegotiated very strongly many, many contracts with the vendors or with the IT providers and this has an effect in the medium term too.

Stefan Gauffin

Analyst

Okay, perfect. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, Stefan. [Operator Instructions] Next, we're going to go to Phani at HSBC.

Phani Kanumuri

Analyst

Thanks everyone for taking my questions. So the first one is on Columbia transaction. It's actually a combination of three different offers that you're making to the three different sellers. How is the dependency within those offers? That is -- if the transaction with the Telefonica doesn't go through, would you still offer to buy out the minority stake in EPM? Or what's the dependency that you're seeing within these transactions? The second is how far along the process we are and what is the next steps in the process that you're looking at in the same Columbia transaction. So that's the questions regarding Columbia transaction. And maybe one more question for Maxime. So you did mention you have some more efficiency measures that are yet to be -- that could still give a better operating results. Could you mention what are the additional efficiency measures that could improve margins going forward? Thank you.

Marcelo Benitez

Management

Phani, I think I'll take the first question. So we are early in the process, right? So we have a non-binding agreement with Telefonica on their majority stake in Coltel and we engaged to offer two La Nacion and to EPM to buy out their minority positions in Coltel and then in our 1 operation that we jointly own. In terms of dependencies, what obviously would need to happen is a merger in between the two entities, right? We cannot sit where we own half of [Indiscernible] and then two-thirds of Coltel and then put it in a silo or having things. So there is an absolute condition that the merger is allowed that goes through a regulatory approvals et cetera. And hence our partners in both companies have an absolute yes or no vote, because they would need to agree to a merger of the two entities as well. So all four parties will need to agree to this transaction. But in order to allow synergies and to allow all the benefits that I mentioned before, we need to have a merger. So that's the dependency, is that the merger happens. Then our partners have been very good partners for the last 10-years. And I think, not speaking on Telefonica's behalf, but I think that relationship there went very well as well. So they're very welcome to stay and drive with us on potential synergies. But at the same time, I think it's a very good liquidity option for the minority partners to step out. They've both indicated in the past that they would be willing to sell and hence I think it's a win-win for everyone and we are willing to step in. Next steps in the process is now making long-form agreements with all the parties, with the government and with EPM. This is a privatization technically, which is called in Columbia law 226 that's a privatization law and which has a number of steps that needs to unfold. First determining a minimum price and then an auction of the shares in which we will present an offer. So that will take a number of months and then it will take a number of months for regulatory approval. So don't expect, you know, still this year or the beginning of next year for this to close. There is still some work to do, but very positive momentum and positive reaction so far. So, good to start. Maxime?

Maxime Lombardini

Management

Yes, so on efficiency, as Marcelo said, many are working in progress on the ERC, on the employees costs. We are continuing to reduce that till the end of the year, beginning of next year. So it will have a full impact next year and the years after. On the contractors, all the contract that we have we serve partly providing services on the sales, on field services, on IT, on G&A, we are really starting to work and we are confident we can decrease part of that. On content, we were locked in a big contract till the end of 2024. We hope we can do better for the future at the end of those contracts. On CapEx, I already mentioned. And very important, efficiency is not only on cost, but we think we can do better on the top line. It is something which is not easy to do, you can imagine, but it is going through offers, simplification, being more simple, we will be more efficient. We are pushing many commercial initiatives, both in terms of optimizing their cost and making them more efficient. And especially we are great believers in the FMC fixed and mobile convergence trend that we are pushing. Both pushing the mobile on the home customer base and pushing the penetration on home for both home and mobile. That would be the main lines, but we are confident that we can do still a significant improvement in the way we generate cash.

Phani Kanumuri

Analyst

Perfect, yes. Thanks everyone. Thanks, all the best.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, Phani. So we don't have any more questions in the queue, but we received a couple via email. So the first one, I think, Bart, this is one for you on Columbia. And the question is around the transaction or potential transaction? How much incremental EBITDA would the $1 billion of additional equity investment in Colombia bring to Millicom? And then, intermarket consolidation is usually very margin-accretive. Are there any thoughts around synergies? So that's the first question. And the second question is what we should expect for spectrum payments in the next few years at the group level? So Columbia?

Maxime Lombardini

Management

I'll take the first one. Margin on the additional $1 billion. So the $1 billion is equity value. So there's also the total investment enterprise value is bigger, you get an debt equity. That $1 billion may still fluctuate a little bit in terms of net debt adjustments when in between now and closing, as you would logically expect. But obviously, if we look at Colombia, it is still a country that is, although we have significant margin expansion, we're now at 39.5% of the EBITDA, but it is one of the countries that is not in the 40s. Millicom Group is 43.5% of the EBITDA. Somebody told me this week this is the highest we had in 10-years. So well done there. But we want to have all of our countries in the 40s. So if you think about it, that's what I would want to do, at least to contribute from that investment. Now in terms of synergies, yes, in markets mobile-mobile, a fix-fix is typically as good as it gets. But, you know, allow me not to comment right now. We're still early in the process. Let us finalize the work. And then when things are done, we can give you a full explanation and how the math will work out on that investment.

Marcelo Benitez

Management

Regarding spectrum, I would say first that we've gone through a lot of them. I mean, acquiring spectrum in Guatemala last year, Colombia, Panama. So I think most of the countries we've already gone through that process, there will be some countries like Honduras where we will need to invest. So that's on the more organic, let's say, side of spectrum requirements for the ongoing business. And then we have 5G, where we do see some auctions coming this year and next year. But we believe all these are coming with a very rational approach. That's what we've seen in all the countries. 5G handset penetrations are still very low. We're talking about 2%, 3% of our total customer base. So this will not come with a big CapEx, let's say demand. And there is a lot of rationality in the countries when they put auctions in 5G.

Operator

Operator

Perfect, thank you. So we'll go back to Stefan Gauffin, who has a follow-up question. Stefan from BNB.

Stefan Gauffin

Analyst

Yes, so question on Guatemala. So last quarter you did price increases on prepaid in Guatemala and then you said it was uncertain how that would be adopted in the market if competition would follow. So this quarter we did see the benefit on service revenue, but we also saw that you lost a meaningful number of subscribers in that market? So how are you seeing the progress in that market? How has competition responded? Are you seeing them following in terms of price increases? Thank you.

Marcelo Benitez

Management

Thank you, Stefan. No, there is -- as I said, there is a more rational market in Guatemala, as you can see, as a result of that, we've increased from 2% to 3% revenue growth. Of course in the middle, in these transitions, there are some effects in the customer base, but we don't see that as an issue. I mean, we've been operating in Guatemala. We have a very strong commercial approach, good grip on the prepaid pillars, distribution. We have a very good network and our pricing is also very, very, I mean, it's very affordable. So we don't see an issue in the mid-term on the customer base. It's more about tactics. So the outlook is one, a more rational market and better commercial dynamics in the coming quarters.

Stefan Gauffin

Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Okay, thanks, Stefan. So that was our last question for today. Thank you very much, everyone, for participating, and we'll see you next quarter.