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Taylor Morrison Home Corporation (TMHC)

Q1 2014 Earnings Call· Wed, May 7, 2014

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning and welcome to the Taylor Morrison’s First Quarter 2014 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will be given at that time. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to introduce your host Ms. Erin Willis, Director of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications.

Erin Willis

Management

Thank you, and welcome to Taylor Morrison’s first quarter 2014 earnings conference call. With me today are Sheryl Palmer, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Dave Cone, Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Sheryl will begin the call with an overview of our first quarter 2014 results. Dave will take you through a detailed financial review, as well as our guidance for the first quarter. Then Sheryl will provide some detail around our land activity and outlook for the coming year after which we will be happy to take your questions. Please note that some of our comments on today’s conference call refer to non-GAAP financial measures, which we believe provide useful information for evaluating our business performance. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures as well as a discussion of the limitations inherent in using non-GAAP financial measures are available on the Investor Relations portion of our website at taylormorrison.com and in our earnings release. In addition, please keep in mind that today's conference call, including the question and answer session may include Forward-Looking Statements that are subject to risk and uncertainties. This may include statements about our current expectations or forecast of market and economic conditions, our business activities, prospects, liquidity, strategies and future business and financial performance. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results could differ materially from those suggested by our comments made during today’s conference call. These factors include those described in our SEC filings, including under the caption Risk Factors and our annual report on Form 10-K and quarterly reports on Form 10-Q filed with the SEC. please note that we assume no obligation to update any Forward-Looking Statements. Now, let me turn the call over to Sheryl Palmer.

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Thank you Erin and good morning, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today and we are quite pleased to share our first quarter 2014 results. We had an excellent start to the year, building upon the strong results in 2013. Our first-quarter diluted earnings per share was $0.22 on net income $41.2 million, driven by an increase in home closings of approximately 15%. The quality of our locations, and our efficient cost structure, continue drive new order absorptions, home revenue and margin growth. Net sales orders totaled 1662 which were up 45% sequentially and slightly ahead of our expectations. Community absorptions were 2.7 per month while our average selling price for the first quarter’s sales increased 17% relative to the sales in the first quarter of the prior year, as we continue sell a higher percentage of our home to move-up buyers. Average community count increased 21% over the prior-year quarter to 202. We continue to maintain a strategy of choosing price over volume, as we believe our land positions in core locations provide us that flexibility. Cancellations have fallen to 10.6%, from 15.2% in the fourth quarter of 2013 which is also lower than 11.1% in the prior year quarter. We require each new homebuyer to pre-qualify to our mortgage unit, Taylor Morrison Home Funding. We believe that helps reduce the level of cancellations, as we are better able to assess the likelihood of the homebuyer's ability to close. Although we were quite pleased with our sales, particularly in February and March, it's worth mentioning that weather did influence sales traffic and production primarily in our Texas and Canadian markets. We continued to work through these conditions over the last many weeks, and believe most of the impact to be temporary. Our first quarter net sales of 1662 were…

Dave Cone

Management

Thanks, Sheryl, and hello everyone. I'm pleased to share with you our results from our first quarter. As Sheryl mentioned, we had diluted earnings per share of $0.33 on net income of $41.2 million in the first quarter of 2014. Total revenue for the quarter was $519 million, an increase of 36% compared to $382 million in the first quarter of last year. Home closings revenue was $501 million for the quarter, a 37% increase year-over-year. Homes closed increased approximately 15% to 1,160 during the quarter, coupled with a 19% increase in average selling price to $432,000. In the U.S. home closings revenue increased 42%, while closed units increased 16%, and the average sales price increased $78,000 or 22% year-over-year to $432,000. In Canada, home closings revenue, home closings and average sales price were generally flat relative to last year. Breaking down the mix of closed homes this quarter, 58% were from the East region, 33% were from the West, and 9% were from Canada. Consolidated adjusted home closings gross margin, excluding capitalized interest, was 23.6%, representing a 20 basis points increase over the first quarter of 2013. Our U.S. adjusted home closings gross margin increased 200 basis points to 23.8%, as compared to 21.8% in the first quarter of the prior year, driven by average sales price increases ahead of costs. Canadian adjusted home closings gross margins were 21.4%, as compared to 34.3% in the same quarter last year. As we detailed on our fourth quarter call, Canadian margins have a tough compare through 2014, as we work through a mix shift. However, as anticipated growth in the U.S. operations outpaces the Canadian business, we expect the overall impact on Canadian margins to diminish. As for financial services, we generated $6.3 million of revenue during the quarter on 608…

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Thanks Dave. Overall, I’m happy to report that our communities have performed as expected so far in the spring selling season and as I mentioned our sales picked up each month in the first quarter and are on track with our acquisition underwriting. In April, net sales orders were slightly down year-over-year, although we didn’t have unit improvement from last year, our peers had saw unique pent-up demand in sales volumes, suggesting it may not be the most relevant comparison. We are delighted to have a high quality backlog with higher average sales prices, lower cancelation rates and higher deposits than 12 months ago. building activity is not expected to meet the pace of household growth for another few years, when we look at the big picture, I believe the silver lining is a more measured and sustainable trajectory, as we continue to build up infrastructure needed to meet the needs of the industry. Now I would like to turn the focus to the future and discuss our land operations. In order to continue to position ourselves for future needs, we’ve spent $335 million in land purchases and development during the first quarter after spending nearly $1 billion in fiscal year 2013. As, as always been our strategy, we will continue to be opportunistic and add quality land positions in premier locations where consumers want to live. In addition, what continues to differentiate Taylor Morrison from other home builders is how we view land development and acquisition opportunities. Recognizing we are both home builder and developer, our land inventory reflects our balanced approach to investments, which in turn provides us with both finished lots available for near-term home-building operations and strategic and title land positions in the right locations to support our future growth. The North American total land bank…

Operator

Operator

Thank you and now beginning the question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) And our first question is from Ivy Zelman from Zelman & Associates. Please go ahead. Ivy L. Zelman – Zelman & Associates: Thank you, and good morning. Congratulations on the strong performance, Sheryl, with your big picture view, obviously very constructive, and also realistic about the near-term challenges with labor et cetera. Can you give us a little sense, just what you're seeing in the mortgage markets, with your customer more towards the higher and maybe credit availability has not been as big a factor for you as others. But maybe just commenting on what you're seeing near-term trends as it relates to any easing? And then just bigger picture, today, with there is so much negative sentiment in the market about demands. Maybe you could just give us a perspective on where your markets are exceeding expectations, with respect to demand? And where there maybe other Phoenixes, if you are worried about other markets, that people are suggesting Phoenix is the beginning of the end, and more markets will follow suit. If you would comment on that, it would be very helpful?

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Okay, we can do that Ivy, good morning. So, first step I think is the mortgage environment. And as you know, we’re seeing significant change – overall dynamic changes in the refi environment creating an increasingly more environment. And I think the industry is dealing with those increased pressures. I think Taylor Morrison Home Funding has funding is generally been able to retain our profitability, but as the banks struggle to continue to feed their engines and originations continue to fall. I think we are going to see more pressures. In fact I understand that total mortgage volume has dropped to probably a 10-year low. In this past quarter. Obviously, we look at our business a little bit differently and benefited of TMHF from a big picture standpoint for us is about protecting backlog, understanding pre-quals for customers going into contract, making sure we get timely closings. So our focus is to service the customer to get them into their new home and have that one-stop shopping experience. Having said that, the depository banks can afford I think to continue to slash and burn their cost structure, because of the other products they have. Once a customer gets into the pipeline. So, long story short Ivy, I think we are going to continue to see some pressures from the banks. I think with respect specifically to credit easing, we are seeing that the banks are easing some of the requirements, but I think it’s important to understand that doesn’t mean that we are going to return to what I would call those reckless time, but, finally we’re getting back to place of responsible lending. I think we’ve seen some recent developments I think last week a bank announced that they were using to credit scores from 660 to 620. I…

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Okay, it’s an interesting question Ivy, and obviously Phoenix was first up in the recovery. So in part of what we’re seeing is timing. I actually, believe, as you heard me say in my comments that part of this starts with our own expectations as an industry and year-over-year, yes we’ve seen some softness, the industry has seen some softness in phoenix, but last year was the anomaly, not this year. And when you look at the volumes that people did last year, certainly I think expectations need to be reset from a – balance of the country when we look around the country, we feel equally as confident, because we deployed the same strategy of quality locations. And we’ve always said that we believe its important to state [corp] (ph) and even pay a little bit more for land, because if you do get some softness in the market, those core locations are going to continue to perform and probably the greatest example of that when we continue to hear some discussion around what's happened in the Phoenix market, if you know year-over-year permits were down about 11% in Q1, but it varied so dramatically based on locations, for example, the town of Maricopa which everyone flood to two year ago from an acquisition strategy is down 59% year-over-year, where Peoria is actually up 64%. I’m proud that we have no positions in Maricopa and a lot of new opening in Peoria. So I really think it’s a very difficult kind of paint to brush across any of the markets that comes down to some market specifics and the quality of the locations. Ivy L. Zelman – Zelman & Associates: Excellent, thank you, Sheryl.

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Michael Rehaut from JPMorgan. Michael J. Rehaut – JPMorgan Securities LLC: Hi, good morning and congrats on the quarter.

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Thanks Michael. Michael J. Rehaut – JPMorgan Securities LLC: First question, just to follow on some of the regional commentary. Would love to get a sense for – you mentioned that Phoenix sales were flat, and also alluded to the fact that sales pace is still above the corporate average in that market. Was just trying to get a sense of, if you break down the orders in Phoenix, I assume community count was up somewhat, and sales pace still above the corporate average, but down somewhat. I was hoping to get a little more granularity there, in terms of degree of magnitude. And also in terms of – you mentioned Florida still being pretty solid, but we have heard differing accounts on Tampa. And you have a big presence there and just wanted your thoughts on the health of the market in Tampa?

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Okay. So starting with Phoenix Michael. As I said when you look at kind of the trajectory through the first four months of the year, we continue to climb and April is slightly down. We did have some interesting things going on in April. We lost a weekend compared to March. You have Easter, Passover, but I think for us, even more than those kind of more global dynamics, you know our average sales price as I mentioned in my comments is up about 35%. So when we look year-over-year it’s really not an appropriate comparison, because our business has changed so much, we are going from a very high production kind of Middle America product to a much more luxury product there in North Scottsdale. And so our underwriting and our paces are actually quite different than they were from the product we had on the market a year ago. So we saw a little softness as you have heard from everybody year-over-year, but once again we are inline with our underwriting. So for us the communities are performing, just as we anticipate. As I look at Florida, and I would have to as far as when I look at my West Florida business, it’s all combined. I would tell you a little bit of the same once again we saw the normal April trajectory where sales generally drop off a little bit from March, we had a very strong winter season primarily in Sarasota, but I would say our communities Tampa are doing fine, so nothing specific really there at all. Michael J. Rehaut – JPMorgan Securities LLC: Okay. All right. Appreciate that. Secondly, just – also a little bit more granularity, if possible. You mentioned that your pricing trends continue to be solid, raised prices at over 50% of your communities, which is good to hear. Was hoping to get maybe if you had a sense of the rough percentage increase, if it was low single digits, mid single digits, something on that order? And also just a last modeling one for you, Dave. What you expect the full-year tax rate to be this year?

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Okay, on your pricing question, if you would expect Michael as I look literarily across every single community in our portfolio. There is a pretty significant range. We had communities that were same year-over-year we had communities that were 0.5% all the way up to on average 4%, 5% in some market. So it really is different across the business that is I look across all the communities, candidly I was quite delighted at the spread of some that had very moderate movement, some newer communities where we came into the market with the low entry point we had more pricing power to move up give to those priors equity. So generally a pretty good range, but quite different than what we saw a year ago.

C. David Cone

Analyst

And Michael from a tax rate perspective, I would say first on a normalize basis, in our rate should be somewhere around 38%, but have you seen over the last several quarters, we about a lot of volatility from our deferred tax assets, and also some from the IPO. As I look over the next three quarter, I would put the effective rate somewhere between 36% to 38%, but that make come in a bit lower if we can continue to reduce some of that valuation allowance on our DTAs, but outside that I think its about 36% to 38%. Michael J. Rehaut – JPMorgan Securities LLC: Great, thanks very much guys.

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Thank you, Michael.

C. David Cone

Analyst

Thank you, Michael.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Nishu Sood from Deutsche Bank. Rob G. Hansen – Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.: Thanks, this is Rob Hansen on for Nishu. So the first question that we had was just, in the past, you have talked a lot about your absorptions being in the 2 to 2.5 range this year. But I wanted to get your thoughts on what you consider kind of normalized in a longer-term environment. If we see starts at that normalized $1.5 million at some point, would you still expect to have your absorptions? Given the change in the business over the past few years, would you still expect it to be in this kind of 2 to 2.5 range or would you expect it to move to more like the three to four range?

Sheryl Palmer

Management

That’s a hard one, and the reason it's hard is what I have no is visibility of the communities that were opening. So when I look across the business for the next you know 24 months. I think the absorptions you are seeing with our higher price point and 75% of our business being that first-time, second-time move-up buyer, the 2 to 2.5 is exactly what were trying to do, over time as you introduce new communities and potentially new consumer segment and that could change the way the numbers roll off, but in the foreseeable I think that 2 to 2.5 make a lot of sense for us. Rob G. Hansen – Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.: Okay, thanks. And then you mentioned that your average community size is shrinking at this stage in the recovery. We would have thought that this would increase as buyers are willing to take on more land risk and buy bigger communities. So I wanted to get your thoughts on that? And what the kind of difference in size is compared previously versus now?

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Yes, it’s a great question and I like where our land bank give at this point in the recovery and we were very aggressive a couple of years back, but I would argue was the bottom of the land market and when we look at large master plan signature communities that was the time to go long. And those will carry us through a number of years and now what you see as you know our land bank as move from approximately nine years of supply a couple of years ago to somewhere around 7.5 years and that feels about light at this stage of the cycle. And when I talked about the size coming down that both in kind of duration of deals, so maybe as we look at land that we acquire back in a 11 and 12 the average was 30 months to 32 months and the land that we acquired in 2013 was closer to about 25 months of supply. And that would obviously mire self in the number of loss. So that make sense for us and that was really the intent of the comment. Rob G. Hansen – Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.: Okay, appreciate the clarity, thanks.

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Dan Oppenheim from Credit Suisse. Please go ahead. Patrick Murray – Credit Suisse: Good morning, this is Patrick Murray actually on for Dan. First question I had was on the Marblehead venture. Will that come through in the consolidated results, when those communities start to come on line and we get some deliveries? Or will that be equity income?

C. David Cone

Analyst

Patrick that will be equity income. That is a joint venture for us. Patrick Murray – Credit Suisse: Okay.

C. David Cone

Analyst

All the activity will flow through that one line on the P&L. Patrick Murray – Credit Suisse: Okay, thanks. And then also on Marblehead. Can you talk about any of your expectations, in terms of when will some of the orders – we will start to see them? And then also, any pace and margin expectations there?

Sheryl Palmer

Management

What I would tell you is that we are still in planning stages. And it is our – we anticipate going – starting construction early in the year. And based on the construction of those models, we would start sales sometime in 2015. I think it’s a little premature too specific about product lines, margins. We still have a little work to do. Patrick Murray – Credit Suisse: Okay. And then just one quick one, if I could sneak it in there. I believe that there are some deliveries expected for some of the towers in 4Q of this year. Just curious if there's any change to that?

Sheryl Palmer

Management

No, no, not at all. In fact we are right on track with our deliveries for 2014 and the balance of the year. Patrick Murray – Credit Suisse: Okay, thanks very much.

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Jay McCanless from Sterne, Agee. Please go ahead. Jay C. McCanless – Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc.: Good morning. Wanted to ask first on the backlog price. Pretty nice growth there. With the communities you have coming online, how sustainable is that 440 number through the rest of the year?

Sheryl Palmer

Management

I think it's pretty sustainable. When we look at the business and the new products that we’re bringing to market, that's – you're going to get some ebb and flow by market, but I think in the whole it's not far off. Jay C. McCanless – Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc.: Okay. And then also wanted to ask on the absorption pace. Based on the guidance that you have given for 2Q and for fiscal 2014, it looks like there's going to be a pretty substantial pickup in absorptions. Is that going to be spread across all the business segments? Or is it going to be primarily in the West? How should we think about modeling that absorption in the year ahead?

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Yes, I don’t think that’s exactly the way it should play out. I think it’s really more about community counts than it is absorption pace per community We have, with the growth that we have articulated of community count year-over-year, what you're seeing is a lot of new openings continue. The first half, significant strength in new openings, but from an absorption standpoint even though they might now contribute closings this year, we also have a number of new communities coming on in the second half.

C. David Cone

Analyst

And the guidance for the community count is 25% to 30%. To Sheryl's point, you're seeing a lot of that come through the second quarter, and then a little bit more into the third. So, is that community growth that is going to drive total units.

Sheryl Palmer

Management

The total units, yes. Jay C. McCanless – Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc.: Thank you.

Sheryl Palmer

Management

You bet.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Jim Krapfel from Morningstar. Please go ahead. Jim Krapfel – Morningstar: Good morning. So you had made some comments about labor being a challenge. When – how long do think it will take before the situation resolves itself? Do you think it will be a few years yet?

Sheryl Palmer

Management

I wish my crystal ball shared that with me, but I think it is going to ebb and flow. In the first quarter, we saw some softness in starts across the country and people got back to kind of normal construction schedules again. In the fourth quarter it was tough, as everybody was racing to the finish line. I think, given the starts that we’re starting to see across the industry in April and May, as people start to plan for the year-end I think you’re going to feel some more pressure. I think in – big picture, I don't think this solves itself overnight. As I talked about in my comments with the kind of aging workforce and immigration issues, we have a number of different things. We will – it will solve itself, but it's going to take some time. Jim Krapfel – Morningstar: And with rising costs, to sustain these margins, you're going to have to do the -- to push price, and I guess I'm wondering how much further do you think you can, on a community level?

Sheryl Palmer

Management

I anticipate that cost – price should continue to stay ahead cost increases, having said that I don’t believe that we’re going to – nor do I think we should see the kind of price movement that we saw in 2013. We saw some remarkable price movement, and I don't expect that will continue. I am very hopeful that we will have a more normalized pricing trajectory that will allow us to once again I think keep price ahead of cost.

C. David Cone

Analyst

I think – we’re going to continue to raise prices obviously where the demand exists, and where those price increases can be absorbed. And we still have definitely communities across the country that are still an opportunity for us.

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Yes. Jim Krapfel – Morningstar: Okay, great, thank you.

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Paul Przybylski from ISI Group. Please go ahead. Paul Przybylski – ISI Group: This is Paul Przybylski on for Stephen East. Earlier in the call, you mentioned that you had pricing power in Northern California. I was wondering if you could give us any color on the dynamics in Southern California? And also if you have seen any change in the buyer profile in that geography, with the international buyer being such a strong part of the market?

Sheryl Palmer

Management

It continues – I will answer your second question first, it continues to be very strong, and I personally believe I think it’s tighten in China, we're going to continue to see that money flow over to the U.S. So it continues to be a very important part of our sales in both Northern and Southern California. Southern California also doing quite well, when I look at pricing across Southern Cal, we raise prices and probably if the same ratio in both Southern Cal and Northern Cal as a percentage of communities. So pretty much a similar dynamic although I would say Northern California tends to be little bit hotter right now. Paul Przybylski – ISI Group: Okay, thank you.

Sheryl Palmer

Management

Thank you. I think that all of questions. So thank you very much for joining us today. We appreciate everyone attending the call.

C. David Cone

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today’s conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.