Good day, everyone and welcome to the Toll Brothers' Fourth Quarter 2006 Earnings Release Conference Call. At this time, I would like to inform you that this conference is being recorded and that all participants are in a listen-only-mode. At the request of the company, we will open the conference up for questions and answers after the presentation. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Robert Toll, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. Mr. Toll, please go ahead, sir.

Thank you, Rufus. Welcome and thank you for joining us. With me today are Joel Rassman, Chief Financial Officer; Fred Cooper, Senior Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations; Joe Sicree, Chief Accounting Officer; Kira McCarron, Chief Marketing Officer; and Greg Ziegler, EVP of Finance. Before I begin, I ask you to read the statement of forward-looking information in today's release and on our website. I caution you that many statements on this call are based on assumptions about the economy, world events, housing and financial markets, weather, and other factors beyond our control that could and will significantly affect future results. Those listening on the web can e-mail questions to rtoll@tollbrothersinc.com. We'll try to answer as many as possible. Fiscal year '06's fourth quarter net income was $173.8 million or $1.07 million per share diluted. In '06 fourth quarter net income included pre-tax, write-downs of $115 million or $0.42 per share diluted after tax versus '05's $1.4 million or less than $0.01 per share after tax. Fiscal year '06's fourth quarter earnings per share including write-downs declined 42% versus '05. Excluding write-downs, earnings on a per share basis were down 19%. Fiscal year '06 full year net income was $687.2 million or $4.17 per share. Fiscal year '06's net income included pre-tax write-downs of $152 million or $0.56 per share fully diluted after tax. '05 full year pre-tax write-downs were $5.1 million or $0.02 per share after tax. Fiscal year '06 earnings per share including write-downs declined 13% versus '05. Excluding write-downs, earnings on a per share basis were down 1% versus '05. '06 write-downs were about 2.7% of our fiscal year-end '06 stockholders equity. In fiscal year-end '06, stockholders equity increased 24% over fiscal year-end '05 and returned on fiscal year '06 beginning equity was 25%. Fiscal year…

Thank you, Bob. Homebuilding revenues for the fourth quarter and full year were approximately $1.8 billion and $6.1 billion respectively as deliveries were at the bottom of our range, and the percentage of completion revenues were lower than our guidance. Fourth quarter and full year land sales at $250,000 and $8.2 million respectively were also lower than guidance. Fourth quarter homebuilding cost of sales as a percentage of homebuilding revenues before interest and write-downs, at 69.5% was in line with our previous guidance. The fourth quarter interest expense at less than 2% of revenues was lower or better than guidance principally based on mix. When we held our conference call on November 7, we were in the initial stages of our review for write-downs. The final determination of write-downs for the fourth quarter was a $115 million, which is $15 million higher than the top of our range. During this review, we determined that some communities needed larger than originally anticipated write-downs and we also identified additional communities and options which required write-downs. Write-downs relating to options were 60% of the total. The majority of all fourth quarter write-downs with options or communities owned were in California or Michigan. Fourth quarter SG&A at a little under 8% of revenues was 60 basis points lower or better than our guidance, principally a result of lower payroll cost from staff reductions and lower bonus costs. Joint venture income at $11.7 million was approximately equal to our previous guidance, while other income at $20.7 million exceeded our guidance by over $13 million due principally to retain deposits on cancellations and higher interest income. The tax rate was higher than guidance resulting principally from some additional state approvals. The number of shares we used to calculate earnings per share of $163.1 million for the…

Thank you Joel, indeed. Rufus, do we have any questions?

Thank you, sir. (Operator Instructions). And for our first question we go to Alex Barron with JMP Securities.

Yes. Thanks, guys. I was hoping you could elaborate a little bit on your comments about stabilization in DC. What you guys are seeing that leads you to that -- to feeling that things are stabilizing?

Sure, this past weekend, for instance, we had quite a few communities sell to -- take non- reservation -- non-binding deposits. These are the deposits before we go into the real deposits within agreement of sale which are not returnable. We had taken two deposits per community and that would give us heart to believe that the market is responding better than it had in the past. And we saw this kind of pickup over the past month approximately. So, what appeared to us that whereas we had been, -- as I said in the monologue dancing along the bottom for couple of months, but recently last month it appears that we are now off the bottom a level above it and that heartens us. We also noticed approximately the same thing in Maryland. The Maryland never went down as deeply, it didn’t go into the ashcan as the Northern Virginia market probably because there was much less speculation. There was -- there were fewer lots available for constructions in the Maryland market, it was a tighter market. So, there we are now at a level which is pretty acceptable. Florida picked up a little bit on the East Coast -- in East Gulf Coast in primary markets. And, I think I have it there -- I think it picked up in Jacksonville, one moment while I search for that -- no, not really, it didn’t really pickup in Jacksonville. I guess that's about it.

Okay, Thanks Bob.

Welcome.

And, my second question -- sorry -- my second question was, can you give us some kind of breakdown of where do you guys took the impairments by region?

Joel, we've indicated that the two major regions which accounted for more than 70% of the total write-downs were in California and Michigan.

Okay, I got it. All right.

Thank you.

And for our next question, we go to Margaret Whelan with UBS.

Hi, guys.

Hi Margaret.

Trying to get a sense for the big jump in your cancellation rate relative to your buyers and your backlog; you have got a sense that you actually accelerated that. Did you go back and shake it out; I am trying to get a sense of whether or not people are going to come to the closing table?

About 50% and 50% even worse. Yeah, we precipitated it by shaking the tree and saying all right, now common guys, come clear here, are you going to come to table or not? If not, let's get it over with it at this point in time. So, we gave charge to our management to proactively go do this and ask them to stop horsing around with would-be buyers who were indicating that they were probably not going to come to the closing table but they didn’t want to say they were out. Why should they? Their deposit is up at stake; the longer they can keep an option cooking, the more contraction we put into the home perhaps the better deal they can expect on a reconsideration; when we get to complete the home. And so we proactively said to management; go out, talk to these people and say, hey look, if you are not intending to come to the table, let's call it quits now and understand it. And so, I think that had impact and that’s why you had a jump in the number.

And that’s why you think about half of that is attributable to that?

I don’t know what the percentage is attributable to that. Anybody around here?

What did you say was 50%?

About 20% of that was clearly a shakeout that we --

I thought it was much higher.

Well, the 20% of that we did in the last couple of weeks.

In the last couple of weeks.

That we just pushed people to find out, what's going on? So --

Many of the 30%, were 20 of the total.

Of the total.

Okay.

Yeah. And I think it's higher, Margret.

Okay. So, we might expect your con rates to get a little high every quarter from Jan?

No. I don’t think so.

And the second question I have -- I am trying to figure out what your free cash flow might be next year. How should we look at your inventory dollar relative to the con rate, relative to the delivery?

Yeah. This is definitely for Joel.

Margaret, we based on the deals that we put on the contracts years ago, we still expect to buy more land than we will free up in inventory, of course capitalized from previous -- in previous acquisitions in the current year. So, from a land release standpoint, we will end up putting on our books more lots than we move.

In terms of lots, but dollars?

Dollars will follow lots.

Do you have a sense for the magnitude?

Probably $900 million of total additions is our current estimate.

Okay, it will go from six to about seven. And then the last question I have is that, at our conference last month, everyone had a different view on how much -- how land prices might go up or not -- go up or go down next year. What is your sense for what you are seeing in the market right now? I know you are getting better terms but you are actually seeing prices on land come down?

We are defiantly getting better terms especially from those people that we are already connected with through an option or who have become recently disconnected from some other builders who are in the market searching for someone to take their place. So, there is not a lot of buying going on out there. So, defiantly those who want to move property are giving better terms and better prices. I am aware of quite a few deals where the prices had dropped on average about 30% for the land.

On land prices --

Yes, for land. So, price is down 30% and whereas the terms of yesteryear that's taking all the way back about 9 or 10 months, where all cash at closing. Today, typical terms are of 3 or 4 year mortgage with release clauses similar to what was extinct in the mid-90's.

Not mortgage, the terms are giving you on the debt to land, right?

Yes.

Okay. So if land price are down 30% and it looks like your --

That's just the recent few deals, that well more than a few, 10 or so deals that we are acquainted with in the last couple of weeks.

And relative to the decline in your order price, which is only about 5% from the peak, and it would seem that you'd have more impairments beyond the first half of '07, is that fair?

We're going to have more impairment first half of '07, I hope.

Beyond that.

I don’t think so. We -- if you look at the estimate that we gave you for 2007.

Yes.

You'd assume that because we'd finish the evaluation process further into the next quarter than normal that the beginning part of the year would have less impairments and that if any surprises come, it will probably come more at the end of the year. But we don’t think that impairments will be anything like 2006 impairments were. And we don’t have an estimate that we can give you better than to tell you, you need to put a number in something to protect us, your selves.

Okay.

Which is what we do.

Okay. Thank you.

You are welcome.

And we go next to Stephen Kim with Citigroup.

Thanks. I guess my question relates first to your average price points. I guess, I was wondering whether or not you anticipated that you might be able to see price increases revisit any of your communities some time in the next 12 months. Is that something that in any of your projections or planning, you have incorporated?

We increased prices on approximately three community this past week; I can remember them specifically so. There are price increases but they are rare right now, as logically we are focused on just doing as much business as we can. If you are asking me to predict where we are going in the future, I would quote a well known analyst who said we continue to believe Home Builders stock will extend recent gains as they return to positive order trends by first quarter '07, drives a return to PE evaluations; we expect both the timing and steepness of this rally to take most industry observers by surprise. Now this would only come from price increases in the market. So, we believe that this analyst knows what he is talking about and if not from his mouth the god's ear.

Amen to that. The second question relates to land. One of the things that the market has generally been, I am taking about Wall Street has generally been focused on is the idea of that land is pretty much first-in and first-out. But my recollection is that when you come out of a downturn that often times you have the opportunity to step in and acquire land parcels from the stressed players and that land may a be little bit more ready to go sooner, maybe they -- half way through the community couldn’t make ends meet and so forth. And so you actually have an opportunity to acquire land that you don’t necessarily have to wait three or four years, five years in some case to actually build on.

That is true, but I'm not certain that it will be in large enough quantity to make any difference this time around if we come out fairly soon.

Right.

If we come out in the next six months on a definite basis, you will not have had a long enough down period to have ruined enough builders and developers to have a meaningful amount of ground hit the market. There is definitely some in the market already. I don’t want to go into it, but you know it and I know it that from some certain companies are struggling and some indeed that are in bankruptcy. But I don’t think that's a large enough amount yet to be a major factor with respect to the balance of supply and demand. So, I would expect that when the market returns, I agree, I wasn’t just kidding when I said, I agree with that analyst who expected it to return more rapidly, I do to you too. And if that occurs, I don’t think that you have enough land to have made a difference.

At least in terms --

Land available.

At least in terms of land that you'll be buying at that time, but certainly you'll be benefited by the stuff that you still have in the harbor.

Yes, I think that will true for us and for all the major builders that buy land as opposed to just in time.

Right. Great, thanks very much guys.

You are welcome. Thank you.

We go next to Michael Rehaut with J.P Morgan.

Hi, good afternoon guys.

Hi.

Couple of questions; first on the market commentary that you gave Bob, certainly interesting regarding DC and similar to what we saw last week. But you had mentioned in the press release that you maybe seeing the floor in some markets, and I was wondering if you had mentioned Florida possibly, although I guess you backed off that a little bit. Are any other markets --

I mentioned Florida, I thought Jacksonville, Northern Florida might have gone up, but I said, I want to review, I will review it again just to make sure because it's in my mind. No, it's not true. No, that’s the primary market, hold on. Yes, actually Jacksonville this week it didn’t do so well. But in the last four weeks, Jacksonville has picked up a bit. So, I take back my correction of my gut. Always go with your guts, it's generally right. And, I would say the East Florida -- at East Florida the primary market, right.

Would you say California is still kind of deteriorating from your perspective at this point or given the write-offs that you've done there?

No, I don’t think it's deteriorating any longer. It seems to -- if anything, it seems to be coming back a little bit. I am looking at stats from this week and the past eight weeks -- the past four weeks, and I see some surprises in that instead of taking zero or one non-binding reservation deposit per community, some communities are taking two and three, which is heartwarming. I wouldn’t say that it is definitive, it doesn’t prove anything, but it gives an appearance of a market coming back a little bit.

Where in California would that be?

That was Northern California also known to you as the San Francisco and burb market.

Great, thanks. And one other question if I could, the quarterly --

Excuse me, I have to correct. For us, San Jose is also, looking at it from an East Coast prospective, San Jose is also the San Francisco an environment market, even though it may be build separately by most of you. And we have had a pick up there recently.

I appreciate that. In terms of the quarterly progression that you outlined in the 8-K, we are looking at earnings kind of going from Q1 '07 to Q4 '07 been roughly cut in half. In terms of -- I know this might be pretty even more forward-looking, but based on how '07 goes, are we to think that whether or not that Q4 '07 might be the trough? If trends improve a little bit in -- over the next 12 months, would that then play out in fiscal '08?

I'll let Joel talk to you but I must say, we are just not that good. You are looking -- our crystal ball definitely doesn't go out as you -- to answer the questions that you are asking.

I have more knowledge of the closure and settlements because they are coming out of the backlog and we envision that some of the other settlements will come out of speculative homes, which will have greater incentives settlement. So, we even provided for that in our estimates. We may be presently surprised and we may not.

Okay, fair enough. Thanks.

You're welcome. I have with, Rufus, a bunch of questions here, I'll try and go through some of them from the Internet. This is from [Luchano Morelli]. How can you say you may face a shortage of buildable lots in the beginning of an upturn? You currently have ten years worth of lots available now. I have said that I apologize, Luchano, I didn’t mean to. What I was discussing with Stephen Kim, and I believe that’s what this is in reference to, from the script it is -- to also is, I’m talking about those builders not us, who have relied on just-in-time supply method as opposed to those such as us, who have build up a pretty good backlog in buildable lots. So, you are right. Your question makes a statement and I think your statement is correct. Thank you, Joel, from [Chris Gilde]. Now that it is obvious that the recent highs in new housing production i.e. '04 and '05 was largely or they were largely the result of speculative buying. What do you think is a more reasonable new housing build run rate for the next two to three years? The answer is, I don't know. It would be ideal, if we could get the market to cook along at 2002, 2003 levels. But I think what will happen is when we reach 2002, 2003 levels of demand per community, speculation will once again come into the market, builders will raise the prices to suite the demand; as prices go up more demand will come in on a speculative basis, so on and so forth; then we will be taking about the next downturn instead of the next upturn. And as a follow up Chris says, what would you consider a reasonable gross margin percentage range over the long-term given that we will not likely benefit from the rapid rise in home prices, relative to land costs associated with those properties sold as was the case between '03 and '05. I think that we can fairly take a guess at what we would consider a reasonable gross margin, Joel. What is a reasonable gross margin Joel, is the question.

We have reasonable gross margins in 2002 and 2003, was in [1990], I don't have that in front of me but I will look it up, while you get into the next question.

Okay. Rufus, we will go back to questions from those you have.

And for our next question, we go to Timothy Jones with Wasserman and Associates.

Hello, Bobby

Hi, Tim.

And also to Joel, I want to give you a congratulations to have the nerve, although as to put out an estimate and we know all the problems that are going on, but you have at least put it out and you are the only one that has.

I wasn’t aware of that Tim, if you had told me I was the only one I wouldn’t do it.

No, no it was smart; it was smart, we all know what’s going on that --

Okay, thank you, Tim.

That’s a compliment.

Of course it is, and that’s why I said thank you.

Yes, okay, now a couple of things. One thing that worries me very big is the amount of land write-offs next year estimates and you, basically I think it was 150 million roughly for last year and going down to 60 million, I know what you were doing, you had to meet the number. Going down about to a one third of it was lost. Are those assumptions, maybe it's for Joel, in the option or the write-down of subdivisions?

I think, we tried to estimate both numbers, but we don’t know. If we knew we would have already taken in it Tim. It's kind of like an estimate to say, you would expect conditions not to be as good as they were in 2003 and 2004 and 2005. And so you need to have some idea. Historically, we have done under 10 million in write-downs for most years and I am hoping that --

That's for the entire year.

I am hoping that when the conditions stabilize, we will be back to write-downs in those levels or less. But right now knowing that, it could get worse in individual markets, we have to be cautious and give you an understanding.

It's prudent. We are just being prudent.

Could you allow me to follow that one up as my first question, I think it's critical.

Yes, go ahead.

All right; I mean this is what's got people completely freaked out, on the grove, believe me. It's not everything else, it's this write-down situation. And I was talking to one of your competitors, actually not, because not in your price range, and they basically said that they had a write-off and it is in this quarter. So, they would write nothing off more than they did the last quarter, or very little, I mean less, like I said, under 10 million. Are you seeing this kind of same thing? I mean obviously you are coming to the end of year -- the fiscal year, so you have been audited. I mean the auditors, I would like to know how tough the audits have been and are you guys really, if anything, being overly conservative, and then not only for you, for the industry?

I can't answer for what other people do.

How about you?

I can answer for what we did. We did an incredibly exhaustive search all year long, and this is the best estimates we can, using reasonable sets of assumptions and the E&Y, who are our auditors, were involved in the process as we thought through, how we approached it and reviewed the numbers after we did our work. But as it’s the company's responsibility to do the initial go through and we look for write-offs every quarter.

Let me just ask this one because this is so important and that is as, would you think right now, are you comfortable that you could write-off less than $10 million in the next -- I am only going to put the next quarter because --

No, I wouldn’t say that. I would say that what we've said already is our best guess, Tim.

All right, all right. I appreciate that. I am just going to leave you up on that because it was that important.

Thank you very much.

Thank you.

I appreciate it too.

To answer the previous question that was asked of margins, I would guess that if you look back historically 25%, 26% margins, were not -- are not unreasonable for Toll Brothers.

Right, that was a question from a previous questioner. Rufus, I have some more Internet question, this one is from [Michael Steinberg]. With a glut of recently constructed used and investor homes. Only there weren’t investor homes if they were used, I guess they were -- unless they were rented, on the market. What differentiating features is Toll Brothers now including in its houses that did not exist a year or so ago? It's actually a good question. What we have done, where we see that we have -- I choose not to use the word glut, thank you, Michael, but where we have more specs certainly than we ever expected or wanted, we have changed the appliance packages, so that when you walk into the home, you see a Bosch and Miele and Viking and Wolf, and Sub-Zero instead of the great stuff that we have been using. It is just as good, looks just as good, but just doesn't have that brand reorganization. So, that's an example of one of the things we are doing to move. And, we see Joel's recommending, go ahead Joel.

I think that if you look historically, a Toll Brothers home has maintained its value better than our competitors and has been easier to sell than our competitors' homes when we look back in the resell market. And, we think we build quality into our homes at all times and we hope we continue to do that.

Michael then goes on to say, examples might include better hurricane protection in Florida and other things. Have we considered exceeding local building codes to differentiate? Yes, definitely we have and we do. So, thank you Michael, Rufus.

And for our next question, we go to Ken Zener with Merrill Lynch.

Good afternoon. I am wondering if you could expand on some of the data you put in your detailed estimates about the quarterly gross margins; because it's roughly 25% in the first quarter going down towards the fourth quarter, I realize the minority of that is attributable to your higher expected impairment rates. But why wouldn’t that be kind of the run rate or why wouldn’t that trend continue into '08 if we are seeing a core deterioration in the gross margin throughout the year. And these are really homes that you're pre-selling right now, right? They are not kind of (inaudible) homes.

Good question. Joel?

As I think I said, but if I know let me make sure, its clearer. Because we don't know what deliveries will consist off in the third and fourth quarter particularly, because we believe it will have a higher number of homes that will be cancelled homes currently in our portfolio. We have built in additional incentives into those sales prices. So, if it turns out, we don’t need them then obviously the margins will be higher. But to be prudent, we have built those in.

What if things are stabilizing? I guess I don’t understand, it seems to be there's kind of two sides of that. If you think things are kind of stabilizing, why are you expecting increasing can rates?

I already have the cancellations, I now have to sell the homes.

Alright, okay. I guess the other question is, if you can explain a little bit more of the tower revenue. I know the miss in the third quarter was expected, was attributed to slower than expected construction and then the present completion for existing towers is slower going into '07. Is there something structural about that business that you didn’t expect or what was the miss coming from?

The accounting rules are changing and we anticipate that they will -- the new accounting rules or interpretations of the rules will be passed finally in the first-- our first or second quarter of 2007. Anticipating that change in accounting rules, although we could have waited to 2008 based on the current draft, we believe that we will adopt the use of the -- say, the newer criteria in 2007 which means some of the buildings which previously we had expected to account for using the percentage of completion method will be accounted for using the completed contract method and that’s why we reconciled effectively the impact of that change in criteria in the release.

What Joel was saying is, and therefore because of early adoption of this method for calculating revenues and earnings would transfer to further out years the revenue and profits.

Are you (inaudible) expect the revenue from the fourth quarter and beyond '07?

No, no.

Because, down looking at the difference between the 31 million reported--

No, no. That was just -- we had two buildings that would have qualified. We had expected constructions who have qualified it in the fourth quarter, to have started to use the percentage of completion method. They didn’t get to that level of construction and now they will not ever get to that level of construction because under the new rules, we will not use it.

Okay. And I guess --

So, it may be pushed out.

Right. And I guess, I -- just to go into that percentage of completion, I realized it's winding down, but -- as far as it impacts in '07. If you have a building, let's say like in, you were talking about (inaudible) which is getting towards completion --

Exactly right, go ahead.

You probably, you said two weeks ago, two-thirds of the building was sold, but you probably accounted for more than two-thirds of the revenue. Am I mistaken given that is further long in the construction process and what type of liability does that (multiple speakers) in '07?

No.

See, if we, for a percentage of completion revenues already recorded, it is only those units that we have under agreement of sale at the end of the year. For the units that we are projecting were including what we estimate we will sell during the year and probably deliver most of during the year, anyway so the building will be complete.

Thank you.

You are welcome.

And we go next to Ivy Zelman with Credit Suisse.

Good afternoon guys.

Hi Ivy.

Hi, Bob. I guess, I am kind of just curious Bob realizing it's the beginning of December which is typically a time where most builders we talk to are not willing to make a stance one way or the other around what the next several months or even the year will bring with respect to the outlook, especially because most builders are waiting till post Superball to make a stance based on how the spring selling season actually pans out and --

That's right.

Here you are Mr., it seems much more bullish talking about big pent-up demand and clearly you were surprised on the spiral downward and for the first time in 15 years your earnings are going to be down versus '06 and I think that you seem like a very I guess broken man last time you were on the call and here you are in Newland and I'm wondering which coolade you are drinking because I want some, because it is not what we are hearing from a lot of the other -- no one else in the industry is going to stick their neck out and a lot of people got burned and I'm wondering what did you see in the data because your numbers certainly don’t show it today and there is clearly a lot of risk that '07 won't bring the optimism to reality that you are seeing. So why put your neck out now Bob?

Well, I don’t think I put my neck out. I think I have made a statement with regard to what I witnessed and I feel that I should make that statement because I witnessed it just as I made the statement many moon ago the things stink, and that we are getting chopped. But I don’t think I have made a statement with respect to the future. I don’t think that I have said that because of what we've witnessed that we are going to. I have just told the market, what we've witnessed so that they have that information to deal with.

I am sorry. I thought --

But I am not making--

I thought I heard you say there was a lot of pent up demand and you are not being concerned.

I am not making a prediction. There is not -- the pent up demand statement, I believe is that -- and I think it falls logically. Let's just take the DC market as an example; sales have fallen in the DC market. The DC market probably has an unemployment rate of about zero and come to think that I think every committee in Congress both houses is going to change its staff entirely not to mention that there is 40 or 50 odd people that I have not been in Washington and they will be soon, so, there is some minor demand coming from switch in politics. But with the unemployment in DC being near zero and with sales going down and with more people moving into the district, and with business going up in the district, it would logically, not definitely, but it would logically follow that demand is increasing in the DC market and yet sales are going -- were going down until we saw them recently coming off the bottom and dancing above the bottom. And therefore, we don’t think that it's illogical to assume that pent-up demand is building using that market as an example. That is all that we're saying.

Okay. Well I think that’s clear. I guess Bob, I would wonder then, why you know to be a little bit more pointed if you were as optimistic as you seem and you know --

Again, I didn’t mean to project optimism, I only meant to project what I had seen in the past.

Okay. Well lets just say that you read a sell-side analyst's work that you said the stock, you think we'll continue to surge. Why only buy 1200 shares of your stock, why not buy a boatload of stock back if you really believed that stocks were headed north here?

Well, I referred to somebody else's belief, but let us say that I believed, which I am unwilling to make a statement on; let us assume your proposition that I believe, which I don't necessarily, but let us assume that I do; your question of why wouldn't I buy stock; and the answer is I believe I can make more money with my powder cash on buying land and expanding the business than I believe I could make by buying my stock. Buying a stock is kind of a one time thing, I think.

I think a lot of people if they ever follow you Bob and you are buying and selling personally, they have made a lot of money, and I'll leave it at that.

Thank you, Ivy.

Have a good day.

Appreciate your question. Thank you.

And, we go next to Rob Stevenson with Morgan Stanley.

Good afternoon guys. Bob, you talked before about market that you saw improving. What are worst markets out there that you guys are operating in today?

Worst markets, well there is a bunch of them. Recently, probably the worst -- well definitely the worst market is Reno. It's a market that we definitely missed the call on. I think that's the Las Vegas market in comparison to what it had been doing qualifies for a rotten market. And, most recently the Phoenix market, which did well for us long after everybody else -- pretty much everybody else had said poor things about, has turned sour for us. Kira just handed me a note reminding me of Detroit. Actually, we commented Kira this weekend, we sold five homes in Detroit, it's like -- that's fabulous. Who knows what's going on in Michigan and in Detroit, but we've been doing that for a couple of weeks now. Minnesota, it is definitely an F market for us. So, I hope that gives you some idea of where it stinks.

Okay, all right. And, how many land parcels did the 69 million of option write-offs during the quarter relate to?

Joel, do you know that? Joe, Greg? Pages are being turned and we'll get back to you with an answer.

Okay. And then one other question on the write-downs; did all of the 115 pre-tax come at the cost of home sales line items or is it in any of the other line items as well?

Joel?

The write-downs are in cost of sales.

Okay. Thanks guys.

You're welcome. We'll get that answer to you shortly.

And, we go next to Stuart Hosansky with Vanguard.

Thank you, Stewart.

Hi, how are you?

Good, hi.

I actually have a very quick question for you. In the DC market where you indicated things looked as though they were improving a little bit, you had some non-binding contract.

Right.

Can you talk at all about what you’ve done with pricing and incentive in that market, and the reason I am asking, because I have heard from other builders that, when they reduce prices enough, they see demand absolutely is there.

That would figure, that’s what I try to explain when we went through the example using DC to Ivy, rate pent-up demand. We have not cut our prices nor increased our incentives, we believe as much as the other guys. When we have been handed spec inventory, we have put on extra incentives, but again not quite as much as the other guys. So, that answers your question?

Yes, and when you do, when there is other non-binding contracts signed --

Well, actually it’s a -- let me clarify that.

Okay.

You walk into the model, you and your wife express interest, you have taken out, you are have shown the loss, alright I want to buy an endeavor home in the Winners Circle phase, we like lot number three; we would say, well, give us $5,000 as a non-binding reservation for that lot, no obligation, we will return that 5000 if you change your mind off course and let us the draw the contract and then we call you in for the contract signing. At that point you would put down on a $700,000 home probably about $40,000 to $45,000; we would hope to pick up another 15 or 20,000 from you in down payment for options, at that point it's all binding. So, there is two stages; first that non-reservation, I mean the non-binding reservation stage, then there is the contract and then finally there is the sale or settlement.

And in those markets, or those communities where you were getting some of those -- some of that flow, how long had it been since you had gotten interest before?

Well, we were talking about Washington DC market and I think I said in the last month, things picked up which was leave you with all those months prior to that where things were slower. What heartened us was we were seeing instead of one or none, we were seeing some two's and three's per community and that was pretty, pretty heartening to us. Of course it gave us warm memory of those great days of yesteryear when two or three per community per week was the average of demand that we were witnessing. You have the answer?

Is roughly 30 communities that we took write-downs with respect to lot options this quarter, there is another 10 or 15 that had residuals more write-downs with respect to lots in some previous quarters but some expenses drilled in.

Thank you.

Thank you, you are welcome.

We were asked to provide the detail breakdown of land construction progress, percentage of completion sample homes and land deposits, and we will do that as part our last -- as part of our last filing, which should be coming out shortly.

Thank you, Joel. Rufus.

And we go next to Steve Fockens with Lehman Brothers.

Hey guys. Bob, since I know you have already talked about several markets, but it's also nice in the past you have done a market-by-market grading. I am just wondering, the last time you did this call you basically gave Delver, Texas, DC and Maryland B grades and everything else basically Cs, Ds, and Fs. Has there been any major change by market along those lines since the last time you gave that market-by-market description?

Let's take a look at, Texas I know I still doing well, Delver --

I just want to ask, is it too inconvenient to ask you to go by market-by-market and give a grade?

I have covered pretty much, Delver is now, I would rate this as a C, if I rated it as a B before, is going in the wrong direction. What were those other ones, you said, Delver, Texas; what were the other markets you mentioned?

I think you mentioned the Texas market as B's and DC and --

They still are.

Okay. And -- I think last month you said DC and Maryland were B's.

No.

No.

Were D's or Fs.

No, Maryland would have been B I think and still is, maybe a little better. And DC would have been D or an F, I can't remember, probably a D.

And now you call it a B?

No, I didn’t gave a rating for it. I said it was off the floor a little bit, it's probably a C minus, instead of being at a D.

I mean maybe to just quickly summarize, things across the board you are not --

You may summarize, I may not, but go ahead.

It's not as if things are, in a few markets you are seeing things getting a little bit better, but across most of the markets relative two months ago, not a whole lot of change.

That’s correct.

Okay. And then one last question, Joel you said, the inventory next year on the land side may be about 900 million higher than this year?

No. I didn't -- as I said that, I miss-spoke. I said I expect that we will based on deals we have in process assuming there is no slippage, we would expect that we will acquire about $900 million worth of land this year on deals that we have put under the contract three, four, five, six years ago that are coming out of the approval process.

That's a gross not a net number?

That's correct.

Okay. So it is possible next year that inventories may not be a whole lot different than today?

Possible, I don't have an estimates for balance sheets yet to give you.

Okay. Fair enough. Thanks very much.

You're welcome.

And we go next to Dan Oppenheim with Banc of America Securities.

Thanks very much. I was wondering if you could talk about your guidance for the closings of the first quarter of '07, for that increase. Was that due to better luck selling previously cancelled home than you had expected, or is there something else driving that?

No, it had to do, but we just got last week a revised settlement sheet of estimates closing for this quarter which are more up to date and include deals which we though we are going to close in the next quarter but have been schedule; it was just a revision of numbers in our normal course.

Okay, thanks. And can you comment anything on terms of your cancellation rate during the month of November?

It's hard --

Go ahead, I don't know.

It's hard in midmonth to get a sense of what the cancellation's rates would be in actual numbers. It doesn't appear as bad as it was last quarter but I can't tell you that that's where we will end up within this quarter.

Great, thanks very much.

You're very welcome.

And we go next to Wayne Cooperman with Cobalt Capital.

Hey guys, how are you doing?

Good. Thank you.

I mean, you guys have been in a lot of markets for a long time. Any chance that you guys just see us sort of stabilizing at this low level and, kind of, stand there for a long time or is that time really what's -- ever happened before?

We can't say. It hasn’t happened before that it stays there for a long time. Answer is stabilizing, but I -- that's probably definition and you have to define what -- one man's long time is another man's short time. But again, it's hard to reconcile that things would stay down, but this is for Ivy's benefit certainly theoretical. I’m not making a representation. But it's hard to reconcile staying down for a long time with the dynamics of the macroeconomic pictures that exist now. I mean, where we are hot, we see it continuing, which gives us comfort. But again, I’m not making a -- I’m not a prophet, I’m not predicting the future, I don't know. The New York metro market, Hoboken and Jersey City, Brooklyn, Queens, Long Island City, Manhattan, they are roaring for us. There -- as I said last time, they are an oasis. And markets such as Raleigh are still doing very well. So it just -- I don’t see the environment that we saw in the end of '87, '88 and '89 that I see now. It's just a guess.

But we will still have demographic trends which seem to indicate demand at significantly higher levels than these --

Again, that's just theoretical though, as I say.

But how much -- where do you think -- I think someone asked you before on margins, but where do you think they would stabilize out? I mean, assuming the last couple of years are probably above where they end up.

I think Joel said 24, 25 is --

On the gross and then --

I looked at the historical stuff in the 1990s and 2000 and it looks like it around 24 to 25 to 26.

And your SG&A would be approximately 10ish percent, 10 to 11%.

I am sorry.

SG&A about 10.

I would think that we would go down below that if we normalize. But at these levels, we are at 11 plus, so --

Right. Because 10 --

Below 10 is not unreasonable.

Got you. All right, thanks a lot. Hope you guys are right.

You are welcome.

We can't be right or wrong because we have said we don’t know.

We go next to Ben Segal with Winchester Capital.

Good afternoon.

Hi, Ben.

Let me get this straight. You said that north Jersey is still very strong for you.

Actually North Jersey I don’t think we commented on. Unless you are --

Not Hoboken and Jersey City.

Not Hoboken and Jersey City. New Jersey, one moment. Sorry, we didn’t heard if I gave you all of Jersey, because we don’t separate it. I would rate that market for the last four weeks all but around the Princeton area, I would rate that market as a 'D' for dog. Around the Princeton market, I would rate it as a 'B' for beautiful in this climate.

Can you discuss just in general if you are gaining market share in your markets now and over the next year, so that you see yourself gaining market share.

It's impossible for us to tell whether we are gaining market share in this market, because we need two sets of information and we only have one. We only know how we are doing. We don’t know how the other guys are doing. I wouldn’t assume that we are doing one or the other. If we are gaining market share, it's so slightest to be imperceptible I would think, because our sales are still nowhere near what they would be on a normalized basis. So I wouldn’t think that we could be gaining much market share.

Do you perceive over the next couple of years that you will be gaining market share?

I can't perceive it, all I can say is I hope so.

Okay, thank you.

You are welcome.

We go next to Susan Berliner with Bear Stearns.

Hi, good afternoon. One quick housekeeping question, then I had kind of a broad question. If you can just tell me on the lots, what percentage is owned versus option right now?

What percentage is owned versus option.

42 out of the 74,000 lots are up.

Great. And then I guess --

[Of course], you have more options than you have owned at this --

No, no. 42 are owned out of the 74, so it's more than --

Not percentages. It's 42,000 lots --

Out of the 74,000.

Out of 74,000 lots, that makes sense.

Sure.

Great. And then --

Because when you cancel deals, the ones you are cancelling are the ones you don’t own, otherwise you can't cancel.

And Bob, I don't know if you could comment. If the markets are truly bouncing along the bottom, if you can just update us on your thoughts on M&A in the sector and specifically how you guys would go about gaining market share?

The latter just by doing what we've been doing, keeping our nose down and working harder. The former, I don’t think it's appropriate for me to comment, one -- it's on the M&A activity that may or may not happen in the industry. It's too speculative for me to comment on. Other than over a [bear], just one on one and that’s just as far as I would go with M&A activity.

So, the Toll strategy would certainly be organic.

I am sorry, what would be organic?

Will Toll strategy clearly be organic or not necessarily?

Stick to our needing, yes, we are sticking to our needing right now.

Okay. Thank you.

Thank you.

And we go next to Joel Locker with FBN Security.

Hi guys. Just going back to the non-binding versus binding deposits. How long is it usually the time period in between those before you have to actually sign a binding contract?

We, depending upon the heat in the community, give anywhere from a week to two weeks.

So, these two per week in DC, you should know if their binding was in by the end of the year at least all right.

Yes.

Right. And I was just wondering on the -- if you are getting any interest from international buyers now that some of the (inaudible), if you are seeing any special on the coast, if you are seeing any foreign money coming in?

Not enough for me to have noticed other than in the Orlando market, where they appear to rent the homes, because they put a deposit down and then cancel and then we sell the same home again. Hoboken, yes, we have international, we have noted in Hoboken. We should have noted in 110 Third in Manhattan, but I haven’t -- nobody has told me about that, so I -- and I haven’t asked a question. It was frankly squalid.

Right. And then just the land -- I mean, the inventory on the balance sheet. How much of that land under development, how much of that’s left?

Joel?

We'll be putting out our balance sheet shortly. I don't have all the accurate numbers. We haven't finished our balance sheets by category yet.

All right. Thanks a lot.

You're welcome. Joe, any more -- do you have any Internets? No. Good. Rufus?

And we go next to Darin Fierstein with Wachovia Securities.

Hi. Thanks guys. Just to put this in perspective a little bit. Could you let us know us in DC perhaps the pace of sales, what it is, stabilized versus the peak? And perhaps whether it look like versus the trough, how much thing have changed?

We have that info, but I haven't got in my hand. The question, Joe, which would come from the [Mike Schneider] analysis of Sunday night's per community per region would be what's normalized per community sales in the DC market. And you can get that, I would imaging, by going back to '02 --

Right.

And taking a look at the per community sales -- per community non-binding reservation deposits will probably be more accurate.

I am really just trying to get a sense of --

I know. I am trying to get an answer. I haven't got it at my fingertips, but we do have it. And believe it or not, it is written down and kept track of, because we do follow this stuff. Joel, do you -- can you find --

By the next question, we will find it.

Okay.

If you show it to me I can find it. This is Rassman. There is '02 -- that's traffic, give me deposits. Here is '02 deposits, it looks like it was running on average. Well, this time of the year would be about one per community in the fourth -- our fiscal fourth quarter ending 10/31. Just eyeballing it looks like it would be 1.35 per community.

Okay. Thank you very much.

Rufus?

And we go next to Michael Rehaut with J.P. Morgan

Hi, thanks. I wasn’t expecting to get back there. Just on -- I guess the follow-up on the margins in the back half of '07, Joel you had said it's kind of building in the specs from the cancellations that you've seen over the last three months. I guess, I was just surprised on that, that you wouldn’t be able to sell those. That those would be -- would it be more higher priority and you wouldn’t try and sell those in the next -- and I guess deliver in the next six months, rather than pushing it out (inaudible) as well.

Not all of our specs, Michael, are completed units, in fact most of them are not. So, even though they are specs, they are not yet ready for delivery.

Okay. So most of the cancellations you'd say are earlier in the construction process?

A lot of them are, not most, but lot of them are.

Okay, thank you.

And we'll take a follow-up question from Ivy Zelman with Credit Suisse.

Wow, I didn’t think they would let me back on. Thanks Bob.

Why not?

I don't know. Actually I was thinking about what you said about sales improving, and it's still 5 in Detroit. And I couldn’t help but wonder what kind of margins. When you -- everybody talks about sales, sales are improving and things are getting better. But a lot of the private builders that are seeing the same sales improvement are saying, but I don’t want to upgrade the grade from 'D' in dog or 'F' in Frank, because the margins are just getting whacked significantly in all these units.

Absolutely the margins are getting whacked in the place like Detroit. I can tell you exactly.

Are those possibly the units that you took the write off on.

As Joel said, I can't tell you. But I can tell you, sort of, wait one moment.

Bob, while you are looking, is it possible some of those houses you actually wrote-down the lands, so that you can sell them at a normalized margin and that might be part of why you can sell them at a pretty big discount now.

That would be into Joel Rassman's --

I don’t think that it is quick enough for us to tell you that the write-down had an impact on anything else and we don’t look at it that way. We look at whatever it takes to sell a house in terms of an individual community by looking at the community activity every week and it doesn’t matter whether we wrote it down or didn’t, whatever it sales for is what it sells for.

But in general, I mean, when you are looking at the margins that you are now selling where you are seeing the improvement. I guess the think that I would believe is --

Now you are asking us to shift gears and take a look at Washington, Ivy.

No, I don’t need you to look at Washington. I just want you to --

We saw pretty good margins, as a matter of fact very good margins there. But in Michigan, to answer your question, your supposition was correct. Our margins are zilch in the Michigan market.

I guess, I am just wondering about wouldn’t -- rather than just looking at sales take, wouldn’t it be more an inflection point that you are getting better when margin stabilize and are you seeing any market where you are selling houses today where margins you can say are stabilizing?

Yes, yes.

Okay. And where would those markets be?

Washington DC, I said to you just a little while ago.

The margins you don’t think can go lower even though --

No, Ivy, with respect to me predicting the future, when you say I don’t think margins can go lower, I don’t --

Okay. Well --

I don't have crystal ball.

Beyond you also commented quite a bit on other market showing some improvement.

Yes.

Is there any other markets that you have seen stabilization in margins besides metro DC.

Yes, I am sure.

Can you tell us some of those please?

I have got to take two tables out and run down margins against sales, and I haven't got that. Joel?

I mean, just as an example, we have slow margins in Hoboken area, the New York City area --

Texas is doing well. Raleigh.

Texas.

Okay, let me try it better this way. In the markets where we all know that the inventories and the excesses were the greatest. The market that were the greatest are now on the downward spiral, not the Texas and Raleighs of the world. Besides metro DC are there any market that you can say the margins are stabilizing, because pricing is no longer under pressure and incentives are not significant.

Yeah, Maryland.

Okay. Is there -- is it Vegas, Phoenix, California, Florida, some of those markets?

Phoenix, if you recall, I said was going down for us.

Okay.

California, we haven't lowered the price and did a little more business I said in Northern California, which was seen as in San Francisco markets. We haven't lowered the margins there. Northern California still has some pretty significant margins. No, that just maybe our stubbornness too. Thank you, Ivy.

Okay. Thanks, Bob.

Welcome.

Also with a follow-up question, we will return to Timothy Jones with Wasserman & Associates. Timothy Jones - Wasserman & Associates: I am so close to being the old Tim Jones, 100 miles an hour fast [that was amazing], but I am not going to do it. But let me ask you a couple of questions. Okay. The one thing that is really interesting, not only is that you are the only builder that I know of, that said they are going to buy more land next year than they did this year. Obviously that is because of the long lead time. Would you like to give me more color on that?

Yes, sure, Tim. I think we're going to buy land next year, because if the markets still -- it still stinks, we’re going to have pretty great opportunity. And if the market doesn’t stink, then we better get ourselves back in gearing our ordinary business. Right now, our thresholds are higher for purchase, but we see that opportunity. Next year you would assume that if things return to more normalized conditions and more normalized buying, and every other builder will be out there buying as well. Timothy Jones - Wasserman & Associates: That was fairly vanilla. Can I get a little bit more color on it?

No, I am sorry, I don’t have more than -- Timothy Jones - Wasserman & Associates: Well, let me ask you.

Go ahead. Timothy Jones - Wasserman & Associates: Let's go into the markets itself. Are these markets really the markets you had locked up in up in the northeast, which had a five, seven year timeframe to get unlocked? Are you buying land in markets like Florida or some of these other ones as California. Could you give me some color on that Bobby?

Yes, we looked at a deal last night in California --

Land that I am currently going to buy in the current year titled to.

I am sorry.

Titled to are generally deals we put under contract three, four, five years ago.

Is that what you are asking, Tim? Timothy Jones - Wasserman & Associates: Yes. But I mean is there certain markets -- I mean is it all looked up -- is it all locked up and that is stuff that you brought up four to five years ago? I mean, I think you probably saying yes. Because you are the only that’s going to increase the land holding, of any builder I know, not below 20.

What can I say? Timothy Jones - Wasserman & Associates: No, is that correct? Is that a correct assumption as you locked most of that land about four or five years ago?

Some was three years ago, some is fours years ago, some is five years.

No, I think you are right, Tim. Land that we're taking down is land that we locked up probably four, five years ago. Timothy Jones - Wasserman & Associates: Okay, that’s fine. Thank you for the answer.

Okay. Thanks Tim. Rufus, we got to run. We got some other things we got to do.

If there are questions, let them email them and then we will try to get back.

Yes. Rufus?

Yes, sir.

If there are other questions still hanging out there, obviously they have been waiting a good long time and I would like to get to them. If they will email them to me, we will get back to those questioners, okay?

Thank you, sir.

All right. So, thank you all very much. I appreciate your participation in this call. I will look forward to speaking to you in the future. Have a great one. Bye, bye. Thank you, Rufus.

You are welcome. Thank you, sir. And ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude the Toll Brothers fourth quarter 2006 earnings release conference call. We do appreciate your participation and you may disconnect at this time.