Earnings Labs

Thomson Reuters Corporation (TRI)

Q1 2020 Earnings Call· Tue, May 5, 2020

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Thomson Reuters First Quarter Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Head of Investor Relations, Mr. Frank Golden. Please go ahead.

Frank Golden

Analyst · Aravinda Galappatthige from Canaccord. Please go ahead

Good morning and thank you for joining us today. This call marks the first time our new CEO, Steve Hasker; and our new CFO, Mike Eastwood, will report our results, and we'll follow a similar format to past practice. Given the impact COVID-19 is having on the economy, discussing Q1 results feels like looking in the rearview mirror, and the guidance we gave only two months ago is already dated. Nevertheless, we believe transparency is critical at a time like this for our stakeholders. Steve and Mike will discuss where the company stands today, both operationally and financially. They will also discuss our updated outlook for the full year as well as for the second quarter, taking into account the tremendous uncertainty resulting from the global COVID-19 pandemic and its evolving impact on businesses. [Operator Instructions] Before getting started, I'd like to remind you about the 2019 segment revisions that we mentioned last quarter and are now reflected in our first quarter results. Throughout today's presentation, when we compare performance period-on-period, we discuss revenue growth rates before currency as well as on an organic basis as we believe this provides the best basis to measure the underlying performance of the business. Today's presentation contains forward looking statements. Actual results may differ materially due to a number of risks and uncertainties related to COVID-19 pandemic and other risks discussed in our reports. Our filings that we provide from time to time to regulatory agencies, you may access these documents on our website, or by contacting our industry relations department. Now, I'd like to turn the call over to Steve Hasker. Steve?

Steve Hasker

Analyst · Drew McReynolds from RBC. Please go ahead

Thank you, Frank, and thanks to all of you for joining us today on my first earnings call. Needless to say, I joined Thomson Reuters at rather a tumultuous time from a global macro perspective. However, I'm fortunate to have joined the company with a long history, a strong foundation and very resilient businesses, a company whose customers truly value our solutions and a company that is essential for the efficient functioning of critical markets that drive world commerce. It's a responsibility that we all take very seriously each and every day we come to work, particularly at a time like this. Now in this environment, our first priority is the health and safety of our employees. I want to extend a heartfelt thanks and express a deep sense of pride in the way our employees have stepped up and rallied in this crisis. I admire the flexibility and the adaptability and the resilience that our people have shown amidst of courage change, their commitment to seamlessly support our customers across the world is impressive. And now more than ever, we need to help businesses, communities and economies move forward. I also want to thank those in each of our communities across the world who are battling this virus, including health care workers, first responders and numerous others on the front lines. Our Reuters journalists have always been on the front line, and their global coverage of the pandemic has been truly outstanding. I would also like to make mention of the Pulitzer Prize our Reuters team won yesterday for its coverage of the Hong Kong protest, the fifth such award in three years. We can't thank everyone enough for their courage and perseverance. If there are three key messages that I'd like to convey during today's discussion, the first…

Mike Eastwood

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead

Thank you, Steve, and thanks to all of you for joining us today. Before reviewing the first quarter results, I want to emphasize what Steve said. Our number one priority is ensuring the safety and well-being of our employees while continuing to serve our customers. Currently, 98% of our employees are working from home in an effort to keep them safe. They have been working around the clock to continue to deliver world-class service to our customers, and they have been doing a terrific job. It's also important to emphasize our company has a very solid financial foundation and operating model that has historically been resilient during past downturns. And I want to assure you, we are well positioned financially and operationally to see our way through the current challenges. Now, moving to the results for the first quarter. Let me start by providing some color on the revenue performance of our Big three segments. And as a reminder, I will talk to revenue growth before currency and on an organic basis. Revenue growth for the Big three was up 5% for the quarter and increased 4% organically. As Steve mentioned, the Legal business was off to a strong start to the year building on the momentum it had coming out of 2019. In fact, prior to COVID-19, it was poised to report its best year since before the last downturn in 2008. Despite the expected negative impact from COVID-19, we are still forecasting good growth for the full year given Legal's unique position and ability to help law firms and government agencies navigate through the current environment. For the quarter, Legal Professionals revenue increased 5%, with organic revenue up 4%. Law firm revenues grew a healthy 5%. Government revenues had another strong quarter with 11% growth, and our global…

Steve Hasker

Analyst · Drew McReynolds from RBC. Please go ahead

Thanks, Mike. Let me conclude with a few additional thoughts regarding my initial observations of the company, having now been in this role for about 60 days. First, before joining the company, I understood how our customers depend on our products and our solutions. And now having met with many customers across the businesses, I am even more appreciative of the unique relationship we have with these customers. That relationship is a 2-way street, and our employees feel a personal responsibility to support their clients, many of whom they've worked with for years. That support and those relationships will pay dividends over the long term. Second, I'm already convinced that our Big three businesses still have a lot of opportunity to grow, to improve the customer experience and to take advantage of scale by transitioning to a more efficient operating model. For example, there are additional benefits to be achieved by integrating our product development and technology capabilities. And throughout my career, I've always focused on listening to the customer, understanding their needs and then developing solutions that serve those needs. We have some of the best and brightest product development technologies in the world technologists in the world. And if we support them properly, point them in the right direction and leverage their talents across the organization, we can drive higher growth, while at the same time, achieving greater efficiencies. And third, in what will be an extraordinarily difficult year given the global economic environment, we will manage the business accordingly, and we'll control what's within our control. It will take a lot of hard work mixed with a bit of realism, humility and teamwork to see us through to the other side. But I believe we can further strengthen our franchises and come through this in an even stronger position. Let me now turn it back over to Frank.

Frank Golden

Analyst · Aravinda Galappatthige from Canaccord. Please go ahead

Thanks very much, Steve and Mike, and that concludes our formal remarks. So we would now like to open it up for questions. And operator, if we could have the first question, please?

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Andrew Steinerman from JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Michael Cho

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead

Hi, good morning. This is Michael Cho on for Andrew. My first question, I'm just hoping you can unpack the revenue pressure from the installation delays and net new sales across Big three segments. I guess, can you just give us a sense of the contribution from each of the Big three segments? And are there any segment of clients that you think that the potential rebound could be delayed?

Mike Eastwood

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead

Sure, this is Mike. I'll start on that question and ask Steve to supplement. As we look at our transactions revenue, there is a significant portion that we can actually complete remotely with our installations. There are some of more our installations that are more complex or sophisticated in nature that actually require us to be in person. A good example would be our Elite business within Legal in that regard. We're closely monitoring that. And as our customers return to their respective offices, we'll have better insights on that timing. In regards to the net sales, the net sales are primarily impacted with our Big three customer segments. We have assumed a significant haircut in our net sales in Q2. We're not assuming negative net sales. We're just assuming lower net sales, which feed our recurring revenues, generating 80% of our revenue. We think that we'll have lower net sales across all of the segments. I will mention in the month of April, we did have lower net sales. However, we did have good velocity given the current environment. Illustratively, within Legal, our Westlaw Edge sales in April continued at the same pace as they did pre-COVID at the same premium. So hopefully, Michael, that helps.

Michael Cho

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead

That's great. And if I could just squeeze one in on cash flow. In the cash flow, what's the 2020 free cash flow impact from the customer collection delays that you called out? And is there a particular subset of clients that you think might have higher variability?

Mike Eastwood

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead

Sure, Michael. Let me break that down into two pieces. If you look at the revenue decrease or haircut, we believe the majority of that impact on free cash flow will be offset by our cost-containment initiatives that Steve and I mentioned. If you look at the decrease in our full year free cash flow, it is driven by our assumption of lower collections from our clients. We value our client relationships, and we plan on supporting them during this period. The areas that we're focused on the most, Michael, would be our small firms, whether it be Legal, Tax & Accounting. It's early innings yet. Our collections in April were pretty good. However, that's an area, as we go through the next couple of months, we feel like we'll have to support and are willing to support our customers. As we go into the Q2 earnings call, we'll certainly have more history of collections, but that's our current assumption. And Michael, we believe that's temporary in nature, and we'll recoup the timing of those collections in 2021.

Michael Cho

Analyst · JPMorgan. Please go ahead

Thanks, Mike.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Drew McReynolds from RBC. Please go ahead.

Drew McReynolds

Analyst · Drew McReynolds from RBC. Please go ahead

Thanks very much. Good morning and appreciate all of the detail in the presentation. Yes. A big picture question for you, Steve, I know a little bit fresh on the job and COVID's taken over here. Would be curious to just get your initial thoughts on where you see the one or two or three biggest kind of incremental growth opportunities here, given the asset mix. And in terms of what your specific priorities here, let's say, over the next six to 12 months, what they would be? And maybe just a last follow-up here. In terms of M&A, to what extent is Thomson still on the front foot here trying to identify tuck-in M&A opportunities?

Steve Hasker

Analyst · Drew McReynolds from RBC. Please go ahead

Yes. Thanks, Drew. I'm happy to address that. In terms of the biggest opportunities, look, there's candidly, there's too many in the list at the moment. I see them across the Big three franchises. Let me give you a couple of examples. The within the Legal area, I've spent a lot of time over the last couple of months speaking with the managing partners and many, many of our customers and both before and during the lockdown. And they're saying things to me like look, at first, we realized, we've spent too much on real estate and not enough on information and technology. And I think that provides a significant opportunity for us. And we're already starting to see the green shoots around that. And so our move from content to integrated content and software within Legal, I think, is an opportunity that we'll need to execute against. And the same goes with regard to Tax & Accounting, where our content is essential, and our software really is the workflow for many, many accounting firms. And there's lots of opportunity, given a relatively modest share in Thomson Reuters in that space. And with regard to Corporates, I really feel as though we're just starting out. It's the start of the journey. We have good relationships with many general counsels within the corporate sector, and we have good relationships with many heads of tax. But if you look at our overall penetration, it's quite modest. So I think lots of upside there. In terms of my priorities since starting, Drew, first and foremost, to do what I can to keep our associates safe and to make sure that as a company, we're contributing to the communities in which we operate. And I think we've made some meaningful progress against this. I…

Mike Eastwood

Analyst · Drew McReynolds from RBC. Please go ahead

And Drew, if I could just add a couple of points there in regards to growth opportunities. We're very optimistic about our Government business, which is about $450 million of annualized revenue. We did the small acquisition earlier in Q1 with Pondera. But if you look at areas like fraud, waste and abuse, I think Steve Rubley, who runs that business, is doing a great job with it. So, I could see both organic and inorganic opportunities in Government. And the other one I would mention, Drew, is within our global trade management business, just given supply chain issues, opportunities that are surfacing now. I think those are two additional opportunities for us to focus on.

Drew McReynolds

Analyst · Drew McReynolds from RBC. Please go ahead

Thank you very much. That's great.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of George Tong from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

George Tong

Analyst · George Tong from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead

Hi, thanks. Good morning. You're targeting $100 million in cost savings from discretionary expense savings in response to the coronavirus. Can you talk about the timing of when you expect to realize some of these savings? And how much may be permanent in nature?

Mike Eastwood

Analyst · George Tong from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead

Sure, George. It's Mike. In regards to the $100 million, we will achieve all $100 million in calendar year 2020. We're incredibly confident on our ability to do that. Two illustrative examples, George, would be T&E, travel and entertainment. Another example would be our consulting and use of third parties. There are other items, which are primarily discretionary in nature, and we're also confident in our ability to maintain that level of savings as we go into 2021.

Steve Hasker

Analyst · George Tong from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead

Just an additional comment. I think when we started to assess the revenue, the top line impact and potential impact of COVID-19, we were quick to put the cost-reduction efforts in place and very, very focused on costs that are not customer-facing and that don't directly affect our associates. To my earlier points, we're confident we're going to emerge stronger out of this. And in order to do so, we need to continue to invest in our customer-facing activities and continue to invest in our associates, particularly in areas like AI and software development. So we're not taking our foot off the gas when it comes to those critical areas.

Mike Eastwood

Analyst · George Tong from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead

George, I would just add. You asked specifically about the exit of $100 million and also to Michael's questions on free cash flow. For benefit of everyone, we are currently assuming that we spend our full capital expenditure budget, which is about $480 million on an annualized basis. So if you look at our free cash flow target of $1 billion, that assumes full use of it. We'll certainly monitor that during the course of the year. We're very focused on maintaining the growth factors for 2021 and of on. Just wanted to clarify that.

George Tong

Analyst · George Tong from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead

Very helpful. And just as a follow-up in your updated full year revenue growth outlook, you did mention 100 bps of negative impact on lower new sales in your Big three recurring revenue streams. Can you talk about how renewals and pricing trends in general are performing currently just within your Big three segments?

Mike Eastwood

Analyst · George Tong from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead

Sure. I'll start with that. We're very pleased, George, in regards to the first quarter in regards to our renewals. It certainly varies segment by segment and even by subsegment, but we think given the how we're embedded with any of our customers, we could have actually some upside on our retention as we go through the year. Many of our contracts are multiyear in nature. For example, about 60% of our contracts within Legal are multiyear, normally two to three years in range there. In regards to the net sales haircut that we are estimating, a lot of that happens in Q2, certainly no negative net sales but lower net sales, lower net sales across the Big three for Q2, some lower net sales in Q3, and we then expect it to begin to pick up. But the impact on that, George, as you know, will have lower impact in 2020 and more impact in 2021. Pricing. Pricing certainly happens throughout the year based on when contracts come up for renewal. The largest portion of our pricing happens in Q1 of each year; so, that is here and behind us. Some of our tax happens later in the year. We currently expect retention overall to be flat to 2019, which was slightly over 90%.

Steve Hasker

Analyst · George Tong from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead

And just to add to that, the only thing I'd add is that our leading-edge products like Westlaw Edge and Checkpoint Edge, HighQ, these are efficiency tools. And so what our sales team are doing is just making those points to customers. And so far, even in the depths of April, that is proving to be pretty effective.

George Tong

Analyst · George Tong from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead

Very helpful, thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Toni Kaplan from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Toni Kaplan

Analyst · Toni Kaplan from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

Thank you and good morning. How are you thinking about potential structural changes to the Legal and Tax & Accounting markets post COVID-19? Would you see some share shift towards maybe the larger firms from smaller firms? And just any other changes that could impact your business positively or negatively?

Steve Hasker

Analyst · Toni Kaplan from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

Toni, hi. Look, I think as we sit here today, it's hard to predict. Certainly, the heads of the largest global law firms and the largest accounting firms predict that they are going to take share. I've certainly heard that from many of them through this period of time. So that's one point of view. I think another point of view is that it's actually the middle that will suffer. So the small, very, very nimble firms that have great customer relationships will be okay and will adapt. And the biggest of the firms have the buffer and the diversity of the lines of business to weather the storm, and it will be the middle that will suffer. To date, we do not see any acute signs of pressure. But as you can imagine, we're monitoring it very, very closely.

Toni Kaplan

Analyst · Toni Kaplan from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

Got it. And then in terms of - I guess, the shift to digital in Legal, can you just talk a little bit about does this current environment sort of accelerate that shift and what you're doing there? Or I just wanted to understand basically how far along you think you are. And how much more there is to go on the transition to digital?

Steve Hasker

Analyst · Toni Kaplan from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

Toni, we see it unequivocally shifting that transition. So within let me just give you a thought on Legal and a thought on Tax & Accounting. Within Legal, as I said, most of the managing partners have sort of gone through the last month to six weeks and realized that over time, they spent too much on real estate and not enough on information and technology. That is to our advantage. And we think coming out of this, as I said in my remarks, we're going to see more demand for accurate, timely, useful information delivered digitally and accessible 24 hours a day. And most, if not all, of our solutions are geared for that environment; that's the first thing. The second thing is the tax and accounting profession enjoys a reputation as being slow to transition to new products and technologies. And we're starting to see some of that resistance evaporate. So they have great loyalty to us. We have worked with many, many of these firms for decades. But one example would be the folks who were resistant to putting their tax return activity in the cloud into our cloud-based solutions have realized through this crisis that they just may not have a choice. So I know that the number of the big technology, Silicon Valley technology players have commented that they've seen sort of two to four years of digitization and transformation in the last few weeks. We're seeing a version of the same within our customer base.

Mike Eastwood

Analyst · Toni Kaplan from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

Yes. Toni, I would just supplement. In addition to using digital for more of the commercial, go to market, sales and renewals, also for supporting our clients, over the last six weeks, we've actually seen our call volumes remain at pretty steady levels. And I think we'll see more of that shift to more self-service, we call it MyTR within the firm, the more self-service capabilities for our clients will be really important. And enabling that will be data analytics. We're investing more in analytics across the firm, but especially with our go to markets.

Toni Kaplan

Analyst · Toni Kaplan from Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead

That's great, thank you guys.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Manav Patnaik

Analyst · Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Please go ahead

Yes. Thank you. Good morning. Yes. And Steve, congratulations, welcome. I'm looking forward to working with you again.

Steve Hasker

Analyst · Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Please go ahead

Thanks, Manav.

Manav Patnaik

Analyst · Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Please go ahead

My first question is just on the Westlaw Edge product and maybe even Checkpoint Edge, can you just talk about where you are in terms of the penetration, the upsells? Just a little bit more color on where that's progressing, how far along we are.

Mike Eastwood

Analyst · Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Please go ahead

Yes. I'll start with that one. In regards to Westlaw Edge, just as a reminder, we concluded 2019 at about 33% penetration on an annual contract value basis. We're approaching 40% at the end of Q1. The premiums that we experienced, price premiums in 2019 are continuing into Q1 and actually, as I referenced earlier, continuing into April. So good movement in regards to Westlaw Edge, and we continue to estimate that by year-end, we will approach 55% penetration for annual contract value. Checkpoint Edge is coming along, and we would expect that to accelerate as we progress during 2020. I think that the key item there is leveraging AI, machine learning, etcetera, with our products. So, pleased with the progress overall, Manav.

Manav Patnaik

Analyst · Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Please go ahead

Got it. And then, just in terms of the - I understand usage of your products are probably going up for those that have it. Just some color on the how the contract structure works in terms of usage or users? Does that presume there will be pain at every customer and companies? And also in that customer count that you gave, like what is the rough mix of small, medium and large?

Mike Eastwood

Analyst · Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Please go ahead

Yes. I'll start with that. In regards to our contracts, we do not anticipate opening up our contracts during this period. We're certainly going to support our customers, but more so from the standpoint of contract payment terms. But we're going to maintain the integrity of the committed contracts that we have, supporting about 80% of our business. So we're not making any wholesale changes in the way that we handle our contract structure and commitments. We'll support our clients more from the standpoint of payment terms. We certainly monitor the product usage on a daily basis across our firm and including orders. We saw a small dip immediately when the work from home started across the economy, but we saw it quickly pick back up to pretty normal levels.

Steve Hasker

Analyst · Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Please go ahead

Yes. And the other comment I'd make to that, Manav, is we've analyzed sort of every form of pressure through our customer base and onto our business that you can imagine, you can think of. And a couple of things. I think to Mike's point, we see products like Westlaw Edge continuing on the same trajectory, in the same path as they were before the crisis. And very importantly, our products and solutions are a source of efficiency and cost reduction for our customers across their entire cost base. That's how we're increasingly selling this, and that's how they're increasingly being viewed. And so we're not obviously we're not ignorant to the pressures that our customers are facing and are going to face, but we're part of the solution not the problem.

Mike Eastwood

Analyst · Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Please go ahead

And Manav, just an additional point in regards to the segmentation or stratification question you asked. About 34% of our Big three revenue is within small firms, which equates to about 30% for total TR.

Manav Patnaik

Analyst · Manav Patnaik with Barclays. Please go ahead

All right, thank you guys.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Aravinda Galappatthige from Canaccord. Please go ahead.

Aravinda Galappatthige

Analyst · Aravinda Galappatthige from Canaccord. Please go ahead

Good morning, thanks for taking my question. And Steve congrats on the role and welcome to your first conference call. My question is on the...

Frank Golden

Analyst · Aravinda Galappatthige from Canaccord. Please go ahead

Aravinda, could we ask you to get a little closer to your phone? It's just a little hard to hear you, please.

Aravinda Galappatthige

Analyst · Aravinda Galappatthige from Canaccord. Please go ahead

All right. Will do. Hope that's better?

Steve Hasker

Analyst · Aravinda Galappatthige from Canaccord. Please go ahead

Aravinda, that's better.

Aravinda Galappatthige

Analyst · Aravinda Galappatthige from Canaccord. Please go ahead

My first question is on the color you gave on the comparison versus the recession in the pivotal time in 2008, 2009. The one thing that stood out to me was last time around, the recovery in the Legal business, the impact on the Legal business was a little bit more lagged. I mean if my memory serves me correctly, the quarterly decline rate did not bottom out until around Q1 2010. When I look at some of the guidance that you've given on a quarterly basis, obviously, you're expecting a more sooner recovery starting the second half of the year. Is that simply based on the different structural factors that you talked of? Or obviously, there are differences in the recession of 2008 and 2009. That was far more severe, but I just wanted to get your thoughts on that. And a quick follow-up on your update to the Refinitiv transaction. Just wondering if you can just walk us through sort of the approvals process. I know there's a little bit of a delay on the European side of the approvals. Is there anything to update on that front?

Mike Eastwood

Analyst · Aravinda Galappatthige from Canaccord. Please go ahead

Yes. I'll start with the responses and ask Steve to jump in. When we think about 2020 COVID-19 versus 2008, '09, certainly, different macro factors are at play. And as Steve mentioned, Legal, excluding Print, bottomed out at about 2% on an annual basis in 2009 and '10. We think, certainly, our product mix is different than it was today. Back in 2008 and '09, we had not even launched WestlawNext. And we now have Westlaw Edge. And just given the activity that we've seen in April, we think the demand from our clients will continue, have more of a must-have. So, I think the strength and mix of our offerings are much different now. And the degree upon which we're further embedded with our clients today is another big factor. So I think those are some of the factors that give us confidence in regard. Certainly, as Steve and I mentioned, we'll provide another update at Q2 as we learn more. In regards to the Refinitiv transaction, based on feedback from the Refinitiv management, their viewpoint is currently, between Refinitiv and LSE, that the transaction is still on target to close by the end of 2020. Certainly, the current environment has created some additional challenges and delays here and there. But overall, based on our conversations with Refinitiv, their confidence level is high, which was confirmed by the LSE during their recent earnings call. Steve?

Steve Hasker

Analyst · Aravinda Galappatthige from Canaccord. Please go ahead

Nothing to add, Mike. Well said.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Tim Casey from BMO. Please go ahead.

Tim Casey

Analyst · Tim Casey from BMO. Please go ahead

Yes, thanks, good morning. Two quick ones for me. Steve, regarding your comments about an accelerating shift of customer behavior. On a net basis, is there not some offset to that, that you'll see an acceleration of Print decline? How should we think about those two metrics? And then you mentioned your global trade management business is one that you're quite excited about. Could you scale that for us? I think you mentioned $450 million from Government. Is it close to that size? Or is it smaller?

Steve Hasker

Analyst · Tim Casey from BMO. Please go ahead

So let me take the first one, Tim, and I'll defer to Mike for the second. As I said, we certainly see the acceleration in a shift to virtual offices to digital solutions. And we think that, that plays nicely into the set of products and solutions that we have in the marketplace and those that we are developing, leading into our AI, machine learning and software development capabilities. As for the decline in Print, we've been, I think, very prudent and conservative in terms of what the impact in Q2 on Print will be because, to the extent that there are legal librarians who are not in their offices and on-campus and so forth, they're not there to receive books, and so we've really taken a significant haircut in Q2. And we're being, I think, very conservative as to sort of a gradual return to activity through the rest of the year. As to whether this contributes to a broader and more accelerated decline in Print, we have, I think, that baked into our sort of long-term expectations in any case. And to the extent that it is accelerated by this crisis and the change in behaviors, we're confident that the acceleration in shift to our digital solutions will more than offset that.

Mike Eastwood

Analyst · Tim Casey from BMO. Please go ahead

Tim, in regards to our global trade management business, we will approach US$100 million this year in 2020 on an annualized basis. Remember, back in Q4 2018, we acquired Integration Point. And we see that business continuing to grow nicely in 2021 and beyond.

Tim Casey

Analyst · Tim Casey from BMO. Please go ahead

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Vince Valentini from TD Securities. Please go ahead.

Vince Valentini

Analyst · Vince Valentini from TD Securities. Please go ahead

Yes, thanks, thanks for the information in for taking so many questions guys. Yes. One clarification and one question. Mike, you said 25% tax on the $7.6 billion value for your LSE shares. Can you just confirm there's zero cost base there, so you'll expect to pay a full 25% in four years?

Mike Eastwood

Analyst · Vince Valentini from TD Securities. Please go ahead

Simplistic answer, Vince, that would be the easiest way to look at it. It's roughly 25% on that. The cost base is very low.

Vince Valentini

Analyst · Vince Valentini from TD Securities. Please go ahead

And second question, if I can just try to unpack your Slide 29 a little bit. Prior to the COVID crisis, you had certainly been expecting the organic growth in 2021 to be at least as good as 2020. If I look at this slide, and you're taking these somewhat onetime hits in the Events business and installation revenue, is there any reason if we go with your base case scenario that the economy is recovering by the second half of the year, is there any reason not to think that if you expected 5% organic revenue growth before, that you'd now expect 7% organic revenue growth in 2021?

Mike Eastwood

Analyst · Vince Valentini from TD Securities. Please go ahead

Yes. Vince, it's a fair question. I'm going to refrain from going into much detail on 2021 today. As we come back with the Q2 call, hopefully, we'll have some additional insight. Hope you can appreciate there are just so many moving pieces right now. We certainly remain very optimistic with the foundation of our business and the strong underlying book of business driving the recurring. But if I could ask just for a little time, Vince, on the 2021 outlook for all the metrics, that would be helpful.

Vince Valentini

Analyst · Vince Valentini from TD Securities. Please go ahead

Okay, thanks so much.

Frank Golden

Analyst · Vince Valentini from TD Securities. Please go ahead

Operator, I think we have one final question, please.

Operator

Operator

That question comes from the line of Gary Bisbee from Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Gary Bisbee

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead

Hey guys, good morning. I guess one question for each of you. First for Steve, so you talked about initial impressions and opportunities. One that you mentioned was further operating model efficiency potential over time. And as part of that, I heard a comment about product development. Can you just help us, from a high level, understand what you're thinking? Is this really the concept of post separating half the company, the business has not necessarily been rightsized or as efficiently set up for the current scale of the business? Or is there something more targeted and specific you have in mind at this point?

Steve Hasker

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead

Yes. Look, I don't think it's a question of sort of a big disconnect, Gary, in terms of the size of the overhead or the rightsizing of the cost base. I think it's more specific than that. So there was prior to the divestiture of the F&R business, there was something of a holding company feel to the company. And I think we still have some of those vestitures today. And given the size of that F&R business, I think that was understandable at the time. But we have a pretty exciting opportunity to look across the business, identify the areas of activity where in service of our customers, we can do things at a better scale, we can embed more next-generation technology in those underlying activities and do them significantly more efficiently. And that is every activity, you can imagine, starting from the way in which we capture and store data and information through to application of AI and machine learning and the development of products. So that's the first thing. And on the product development lens, I think we've just got some room to improve there. I think our ability to we are very focused on our customers. We have a lot of talented sales and customer service people who have truly special relationships with the accountants and the lawyers and the executives with whom they work. But I think our ability to truly understand the decisions that our customers are making and translate that back into the solutions we are providing, there's some real upside there. And I think we can get better, we can get faster and more agile at doing that, both in terms of understanding those needs today and anticipating them and getting them into the product, features and functionalities going forward. And this is imminently achievable, but there's nothing sort of overly scientific or more difficult about doing this. We've just got to set about doing it.

Gary Bisbee

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead

Great. And then a follow-up for Mike. So the cost-reduction commentary you gave about this year, it sounds like a lot of that is discretionary that goes away but could come back in the future. Is there any way to think about the cadence of that? Is that do you think those costs largely would come back in line with revenue? Or do you have some discretion as to when to bring those costs back?

Mike Eastwood

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead

Gary, we're going to work to ensure that those costs do not come back in the aggregate. There could be a slightly different mix as we go into 2021 but certainly, a very strong focus on those. Discretionary costs will be a permanent part of our DNA with that. So it could be a slightly different mix, but I'm optimistic we'll be able to hold that as we go into 2021.

Steve Hasker

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead

Yes. Can I just add? I think, Gary, many of the companies you follow will say virtually the same thing. But in a sense, notwithstanding the human crisis here, this is the great experiment, right? And so we cut those costs, and we see what happens. And so far, we haven't missed it, not $1 of it. So that's the first thing. The second thing is that it really, I think, gives us courage in our convictions to double down on our bigger bets that our customers truly value, right, both the Legal, the Tax & Accounting and Corporates, the Government components of our business, and we're in the process of doing that. And so far, the results, that have been also very, very promising. So, we plan to continue on that path through the rest of this year and use that momentum heading into 2021.

Frank Golden

Analyst · Bank of America. Please go ahead

So, that will be our last question for the day. We know that there was an awful lot to digest there. We very much appreciate your time and attention on this call. I'm sure you'll have follow-up questions, so please don't hesitate to reach out for me and for Megan, and we will be available to help you with that. Thanks very much for joining us this morning, and have a good day.

Operator

Operator

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