Earnings Labs

Trimble Inc. (TRMB)

Q2 2015 Earnings Call· Tue, Aug 4, 2015

$66.08

-0.84%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

-16.06%

1 Week

-12.87%

1 Month

-18.73%

vs S&P

-12.13%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon. My name is Patsy, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Trimble Second Quarter Earnings 2015 Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn the call over to Jim Todd. Mr. Todd you may begin your conference.

Jim Todd - Director-Investor Relations

Management

Thank you. Good afternoon. I'm here today with Steve Berglund, our CEO; and Francois Delepine, our CFO. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that the forward-looking statements made in today's call and the subsequent Q&A period are subject to risks and uncertainties. Trimble's actual results may differ materially from those currently anticipated due to a number of factors detailed in the company's Form 10-Ks and 10-Qs or other documents filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. During this call, we will refer to a press release, which is available along with additional financial information on our website at www.trimble.com. The non-GAAP measures discussed in the call are reconciled to GAAP measures in the tables to our press release. Now let me turn the call over to Steve. Steven W. Berglund - President & Chief Executive Officer, Executive Committee Member: Good afternoon. Second quarter results were in line with expectations. We continue to face the challenges that have been with us for the last several quarters, led by agriculture, which continues to be our most intractable problem and where we saw quarterly year-to-year revenue decline for the second year in a row. The stronger dollar and the effects of the oil price decline also impacted the growth profile for the quarter. These three effects impacted the revenue growth rate by an estimated 10% in the first half of the year, against the 6% reported revenue decline. We continue to expect these effects to diminish as significant factors in the year-to-year comparisons in the fourth quarter and first quarter. And allow us to credibly reintroduce growth into the Trimble story. We were pushed down into the middle of our second quarter revenue range by Brazil and China, which showed a sharp decline in performance, reflecting the uncertainties in both countries.…

Operator

Operator

Our first question comes from Jonathan Ho with William Blair. Jonathan F. Ho - William Blair & Co. LLC: Good afternoon, guys. I just wanted to start out with maybe little bit more color in terms of the guidance that you gave, particularly getting back to the corporate margins for 2016. I know you've sort of outlaid some of the assumptions that you had around that. But can you maybe give us a little bit more in terms of what your executions are in terms of the macro environment and perhaps, maybe the FX exchange environment as well and your thoughts on what that needs to be, in order to achieve either a return back to growth or a return back to the corporate margins? Steven W. Berglund - President & Chief Executive Officer, Executive Committee Member: Yeah. So, I think we're kind of looking at the two issues a little bit independently. I think the return to 20% we're basically aside from some kind of continued growth in the building construction space or at least elements of it, which looks pretty good at this point in time, as well as the transportation and logistics, which again is looking pretty good. We're basically, modeling kind of a return to 20% operating with no real help elsewhere from revenue. And so, as far as exchange rate environment, we're maybe naively with the Fed potentially raising rates, but we're assuming kind of current exchange rates continue through into 2016. So, we're not assuming the wisdom of actually being able to call future exchange rate move. So, basically a flat line. And in a simple sense is, again through June trailing 12-month, operating margin, non-GAAP operating margin was 17.1%. So, in shorthand form, we see the three points coming from, one, Manhattan Software,…

Operator

Operator

Our next question will be from Jerry Revich with Goldman Sachs. Jerry? Jerry D. Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Good afternoon. Steven W. Berglund - President & Chief Executive Officer, Executive Committee Member: Good afternoon. Jerry D. Revich - Goldman Sachs & Co.: I'm wondering if you could just flash out a little bit more color what you spoke about in your opening remarks to even terms of how the path to the build out of the buildings channel and how we should think about SG&A negative sales as you continue down that path looks like for the company as a whole-ish, your negative sales was up a few hundred basis points year-to-date. I am assuming big part of that is around supporting that channel. But I'm wondering if you just flush that out that and how we should think about that evolving? Steven W. Berglund - President & Chief Executive Officer, Executive Committee Member: Yeah. So I think that starting to kind of looking back and moving to the front here maybe a little bit, but the – we're not looking to the changes we're making in channel to – we're not looking for any fundamental structural changes in our cost structure out of this. Now Trimble has become a little bit more complicated or maybe significantly more complicated over the last few years and kind of ratios like sales and marketing cost to revenue because very roughly 50% of our overall go-to-market approach has been – it has become direct, five years ago it's much more indirect. And that in terms of the way the accounting is done for revenue and where the costs are that will mess with the ratios a bit. So – but fundamentally, what we're doing now in terms of initiatives across the…

Jim Todd - Director-Investor Relations

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is Richard Eastman with Robert W. Baird. Richard C. Eastman - Robert W. Baird & Co., Inc. (Broker): Yes. Good afternoon. Could you just cycle back to the Field Solutions business and against that strong double-digit decline in revenue. Could you just kind of speak to how ag did perform and how GIS did perform? And then, maybe the second half of 2015, I guess the expectation is that ag flattens out against at least the fourth quarter comp, is that the expectation there? Steven W. Berglund - President & Chief Executive Officer, Executive Committee Member: Yeah. So, the expect – pretty explicitly is that particularly with performance we saw in Brazil and performance we're seeing out of the OEMs, which is I think that we had – we're expecting the third quarter to maybe kind of moderate out. I think we're just watching the third quarter at this point of time. But, right now, another drop is in the estimate for the third quarter. Whereas in fourth quarter, which was – which where we saw the really precipitous drop last year. I think that – and a lot of that was inventory effect in the OEM channel. We don't expect – we certainly don't expect the inventory effect to recur in agriculture, and relative to everything else, the – it's getting we're kind of coming to the limits of how much worse the OEM element could get sort of thing. So, right now, we're modeling and with some reasonable expectation of it actually turning out to be true. We're modeling the fourth quarter to be flat in agriculture, and I think, right now, we've got and what I think is a sober and conservative estimate for the third quarter and last year late in the quarter…

Jim Todd - Director-Investor Relations

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question will be from Rich Valera with Needham & Company. Rich? Richard F. Valera - Needham & Co. LLC: Thank you. And so, Steve, if I look at the implied operating margin in your third quarter guidance and then make some assumptions about the fourth quarter, it would appear that the calendar 2015 op margin could be significantly lower than the 17% trailing four quarters. And I'm not sure why that wouldn't be a more relevant baseline as we look to next year and trying to get to 20%. I mean it seems like you could be closer to maybe 15.5% or call it maybe 16% for calendar 2016. So, you have another point to point-and-a-half to bridge to get to that 20% and I'm just wondering why that is the more relevant comparison? Steven W. Berglund - President & Chief Executive Officer, Executive Committee Member: Well, I'd say – first of all it hasn't happened yet and therefore rather than kind of building a set of actions around a forecast, I think that we understand fully and completely the trailing 12 months, we're building it off of that as a result. But I think that – I think looking to – we haven't said anything about the fourth quarter and what that might be. So, the third quarter is standing kind of in isolation at this point in time. But again, I think that if you – we could also go back to the third quarter last year which had a 20% plus operating margin and build it off of that in terms of what has happened since then to bring it down from 20%. So, we can search for different baselines. So, I think that one of the exercises I've done is basically gone back to…

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Brett Wong with Piper Jaffray. Brett W. S. Wong - Piper Jaffray & Co (Broker): Hey, guys, thank you for taking my questions. I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit more, provide some more detail around the lower oil impact and kind of expectations of when you think that will improve. I mean you previously mentioned Steve, that you expected second quarter to kind of be the bottom. I mean what are you expecting now for when that impact is going to stabilize and when we potentially start to see improvement? Steven W. Berglund - President & Chief Executive Officer, Executive Committee Member: Yeah. So, I think that probably when we look back I wouldn't – I would guess I wouldn't doubt anyway that probably the second quarter does kind of – first quarter and second quarter particularly together represent the low point. Now, I think that probably the oil producing regions themselves are going to languish for a period of time. But I think, two effects, one, when we get into the – when we get to the – into the fourth quarter and to the first quarter, at least the year-to-year comparison that's to be easier. So, we've got that, but I think as a – from a company standpoint is because of our relative market share in the GNSS, GPS. We have been a kind of overrepresented in the oil exploration area and we have actually I think had a stronger presence in the oil producing regions than maybe more – some of the competition. I think what we need to do as a company and that's what we're doing at this point in time is, okay, a reallocating mine share, reallocating resources, reallocating marketing programs kind of…

Jim Todd - Director-Investor Relations

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our last and final question in the queue will be from Ian Ing with MKM Partners.

Ian L. Ing - MKM Partners LLC

Analyst

Yes, thanks for fitting me in. Steve, you talked about improving the distribution channel in ag and replicating some of your SITECH success in E&C, but as you probably know, farmers are skeptical bunch, I mean, even when faced with a good ROI value proposition. So, how do you expect to really win over this market with channel and customer education? Steven W. Berglund - President & Chief Executive Officer, Executive Committee Member: Well, okay, so, I think it's – yeah, so, without a doubt I would expect agriculture and I think we've been consistent the same as over a period of time. Is agriculture – we see a transformation in both construction and agriculture. We would see the transformation occurring in construction much more rapidly than agriculture. So, the value proposition in construction is that, by using technology you can reduce project cost by 25% or 30%. Okay, that the competitive forces in construction are strong enough, is that – okay – I think the – those contractors who don't adapt will be out of business in fairly short orders. So, construction I think will occur rapidly. I think agriculture is a more conservative, a more patience sort of market. It will take longer. I think the end result will be very much the same of agriculture being transformed through the use of the information. So, I think that there is going to be – I think that against kind of what – the speculation of last few years in terms of time phased projections. I think it will turn out to be a slower developing market than people have been saying. At the same time, it will happen, it will be a big change and I think that fundamental to that change will be an edge, a channel that can deliver value to the customer that is – that becomes a trusted advisor to the farmer, and I think that becomes the fundamental consideration, which is to really reflect the level of neutrality and level of trust with the farmer turning over data to if you will, a third-party is an act of trust. So, I think that's fundamental. So, I think we're putting the basis in play to make that happen. I think we're being – let's call it appropriately sober, saying on time expectations, but I think it's the first step of many. So, I think that starting from a low level, I think we should see good growth coming from it, but we're not projecting a rocket ship here.

Ian L. Ing - MKM Partners LLC

Analyst

Great. And then from my follow-up Francois, I mean how long will it take for currency translation impacts to play out? I mean the dollar didn't get any strong in Q2, but obviously there is some sort of lag in the pricelists adjusting. And once the pricelists do fully adjust, there is some demand consequences at that point. Thanks. Francois Delepine - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Committee Member: Yeah. So each division kind of adjust to the situation the kind of best they can with regards to pricing. We see the impact in Q3 to be – I mean the current rate to be a little bit lower than it was in Q2, but we quantify that is about 4%. In Q3, it will also be a little bit lower than we would expect to see it in – in Q4, rather we expect to see it bit a lower than in Q3. So, we're thinking about $20 million – $25 million in Q3, about $20 million in Q4, and then starts reducing after that still more – still a little bit in the Q1 and then after that in Q2 assuming current rates obviously will start lapping that and thoughts on demand issues once the price is fully addressed. Steven W. Berglund - President & Chief Executive Officer, Executive Committee Member: Yeah. So, you kind of expect things to neutralize themselves, so we may see some a good results. Now if you look at the results in Europe actually if you exclude the impact of FX and the distributor revenue recognition event that we had last year. So, which kind of impacted the year-over-year comparison. Europe was actually up 9%. So it kind of indicates that there is strong demand locally.

Ian L. Ing - MKM Partners LLC

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.