D. Stephen Menzies
Analyst · BB&T Capital Markets. Your line is now open
Thank you, Tim. Good morning. TrinityRail had another solid performance during the second quarter of 2008. Operating profits and margins held steady as continued gains in productivity help to offset the impact of the competitive pricing environment and increases in raw materials cost. Operating margins for the second quarter were 12.3% compared to 16.1% a year earlier and 13.6% during the first quarter of 2008. We have been able to keep our volumes stable, which has enabled us to retain the production efficiencies we gained during the last few years. We anticipate continued benefits from lean manufacturing initiatives at our production service as well. Our highway seasoned operations group was doing an outstanding job driving further efficiencies and cost reductions. We do however expect our operating margins to decline over the balance of 2008 in that highly competitive sales environment and rising raw materials cost. The cost to build a railcar will continue to rise in 2009, driven by further significant increases in raw material cost. During the second quarter, TrinityRail shipments were 3,580 railcars, 9.5% greater than the 6,110 railcars shipped in the first quarter of 2008 and 5.7% less than the shipments in the second quarter 2007. We expect combined shipments of between 14,000 and 15,000 railcars during the third and fourth quarters of 2008. Some of these shipments will come from our finished goods inventory railcars built in advance of customers needs. We are currently reviewing our 2009 production plans. Based upon our current view of market demand, we anticipate decreasing our total production footprint going into2009. Mostly in our view, the anticipated decline in Tank Car production in 2008. Year-over-year industry Tank Car production will be significantly less than in 2008 and 2007. Ethanol production growth has slowed and many idle new Tank Cars have yet to be observed by the market. In fact as Tim mentioned, we are converting two railcar production facilities to Wind Tower production and we are evaluating additional opportunities. These facilities and the men and women were doing them and by the way the operating flexibility competency, we strive to achieve at Trinity. This competency allows us to optimize our product mix, in this case to take advantage of the strong market demand for wind towers. With regard to the railcar market, industry railcar orders during the second quarter continued at a moderate pace. Approximately 12,150 railcar orders replaced industry wide during the second quarter. This brings the industry totaled for the first six months of 2008 to over 22,300 railcars. At quarter end, the total industry backlogs totaled approximately 62,320 railcars down 6% compare to the end of the first quarter. However, this is still a healthy backlog from an historical perspective and represents almost one year’s production at today’s industry operating levels. Recent order inquiries indicate third quarter 2008 industry orders, could again be inline with second quarter order levels. Industry orders seem to have reached a stable level as a range of 10,000 to 12,000 railcars orders in each quarters, is evidence by the last six quarters. Independent forecast place 2009 industry railcar production in the 40,000 to 50,000 car range, which is consistent with the market and personal review. While making broad generous statements about the railcar market is attempting, it is more valuable to examine demand for various railcar types, serving discrete end use markets. As you know railcar demand shifts periodically from car type to car type. Order and inquiry levels in the second quarter reflected steady demand for auto racks. The consumer shift to smaller or fuel efficient autos, as positive demand for tri-level auto racks, currently in short supply. Replacement of the first-generation auto racks is also driving demand for new auto racks. Demand also strengthened for multiple types of covered hoppers used to transport agricultural products and for coal cars, both driven in large part by export demand and improve railroad system fluidity. With the continued weak demand in select market such as intermodal, plastic pellet, center-beam and box cars, reflecting weakness in housing, automobile and consumer spending. We are also see slowing demand for tank cars, although replacement of smaller less efficient tank cars and pending regulatory actions regarding as it is commodity base per demand in the near-term. In the second quarter 2008, TrinityRail received approximately 7,430 railcars orders, raising our order total for the first half of 2008, to slightly more than the 11,500 railcars. Many of these orders extend car production lines for variety of railcars. Specifically, we received orders from third-party leasing companies, rail roads, industrial service and utilities, for covered hoppers, coal car, open top hoppers, rail gondolas, auto racks and tank cars. The diversity of our orders reflects the breadth of TrinityRails product lines and customer base. At the end of the second quarter, TrinityRails’ front order backlog was approximately 28,680 railcars, an increase of 2.6% over the first quarter of 2008. A strong order backlog, which comprises 46% of the industry total, extends through 2009. This visibility enables an effective production planning, material sourcing and positions us to pursue additional operating efficiencies. Our Railcar Leasing and Management Services Group continue to grow with low cost fleet during the second quarter. TrinityRail shipped 3,170 new railcars to customers of our leasing company during the second quarter all subject to firm, non-cancelable leases. This represented about 48% of TrinityRails second quarter railcar shipments. Our lease fleet has grown 18.5% to over 41,100 railcars compared to approximately 34,670 railcars in our lease fleet at the end of the second quarter of 2007. Demand for railcars leasing continues to increase as evidenced by our strong leasing backlog. Our committed lease backlog as of June 30, 2008 was approximately 17,000 railcars or 60% of our total production backlog. We continue to see a long-term trend for railroads and industrial producers to use their capital resources to acquire assets, which are core to their businesses, while relying on leasing for operating assets such as railcars. Our lease fleet utilization remained at more than 99% at the end of the second quarter 2008. The average age of the railcars in our lease fleet is 4.6 years and the average remaining lease term is approximately 5.1 years. These two key operating metrics underscore our ability to maintain high fleet utilization. During the market downturn, our newer, highly productive railcars are less likely to be returned from lessees, when they these expires. Customers typically return older, less efficient railcars when they downsize their fleets. Our high average remaining lease term provides a hedge against short-term market downturns, therefore mitigating some remarketing risks. In summary, market demand, excess industry capacity, and increase in raw materials cost are creating a highly competitive environment. The initiatives Trinity we all put into place the last few years have helped position us well operationally to be successful in the highly competitive environment. Gains in operating efficiencies, however, will only partially offset raw materials cost increases. We must successfully raise the price of our railcars and our lease rates to reflect the rapidly rising railcar costs. The scale of our 41,100 railcar lease fleet, and has continued growth, provides financial stability, greater customer access, and flexibility and placing railcars into the market. Leasing has been and it will continue to be an important strategic tool, integral to our successful performance. I will now turn it over to Bill McWhirter.