John Romano
Analyst · JPMorgan
Well, I think one thing you've got to reference is that since 2023, you had 1.1 million tons of capacity go away. So any movement towards a regular buying pattern where people were driving down inventories created a significant shift. Then you've got the antidumping duties, which are also helping that. So I wouldn't disagree with you that there hasn't been a significant move in demand. A lot of this has been structural shifts based on a lot of proactive work that we've been doing as an industry to try to get the business in a profitable place. That being said, when we look into the first quarter, we're seeing volume growth in every region, except Asia, specifically India, as I just mentioned, and we're starting to see coating season, which is normalized. And again, I made this point on the last call, if you think about the duty affected areas at the peak of exports from China into those areas. So Europe, Brazil, India and Saudi Arabia. That's about 800,000 tons of exports from China. And again, I made this comment last time, use the U.S. as a proxy when the Trump [ 301 ] tariffs went into place back in 2018, a 900,000-tonne per year market, we're only 20,000 tons of TiO2 is being exported from China. So I'm not assuming it's going to go to that. But if you think about -- let's just say, there's half of that volume, half of that 800,000 tonnes gets distributed to other suppliers it's reasonable to assume that we would get at least 25% of that. That's 100,000 tons. And at that rate, we're sold out. We're selling more than we're making with our new footprint. We've redistributed our products so that we can continue to service customers that came out of [ Bowick ], probably not so much in China because we exited that market because it just wasn't profitable.