Earnings Labs

Tyson Foods, Inc. (TSN)

Q2 2015 Earnings Call· Mon, May 4, 2015

$63.58

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Welcome to the Tyson Quarterly Investor Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. This call is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this point. Now, I would like to hand the call over to your host, Mr. Jon Kathol, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, you may begin.

Jon Kathol - Vice President-Investor Relations

Management

Good morning and thank you for joining us today for Tyson Foods' conference call for the second quarter of the 2015 fiscal year. On today's call are Donnie Smith, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Dennis Leatherby, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Our remarks today include forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are subject to the risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations and projections. I encourage you to read the news release issued earlier this morning and our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission for a discussion of the risks that can affect our business. This morning, we will be referring to our second quarter adjusted operating income and EPS. The company uses non-GAAP results such as adjusted EPS, adjusted operating margin and adjusted operating income to provide investors with the better understanding of the company's operating performance by excluding the impact of certain nonrecurring items affecting comparability. Please refer to today's news release for a full reconciliation of our GAAP to adjusted results. As always we'll have a Q&A session following our prepared remarks. To ensure we get to as many of you as possible, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up, and then get back in the queue for any additional questions. I'll now turn the call over to Donnie Smith. Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks, Jon. Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us today. I'm pleased with our second quarter results. EPS was $0.75 on both an adjusted and a GAAP basis, and adjusting operating margin was 5.5%. Adjusted operating income was a Q2 record and up 53% over the same period last year. We captured $77 million in…

Operator

Operator

Thank you, sir. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Okay. Our first question is from Ken Goldman [JPMorgan Securities]. Your line is now open. Please proceed.

Kenneth B. Goldman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Hey. Good morning, everybody. I know these are difficult to sort of put into numbers, but you had two headwinds in the quarter, right, avian flu and the West Coast port strike that you said didn't help, right? So, is there any way for us to quantify how much these headwinds maybe hurt margins or EPS in the quarter? Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: Ken, as we look at – I'm going to combine the both, probably around $20 million for Q2. And as you know, they're continuing to linger, so we're going to have to continue dealing with them over the next quarter or two. But we're hoping that the West Coast port issue should clear up in the next two to three months. There are some ebb and flows that kind of keep us from having all the confidence we'd like to have in that, but figure Q2 at $20 million, and some of that gets pushed into Q3 and on forward.

Kenneth B. Goldman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

And that's $20 million to the operating line? Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: Right.

Kenneth B. Goldman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Okay. Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: Call it, round numbers, $0.03 a share or something like that.

Kenneth B. Goldman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Yeah, yeah. Okay. Perfect. No, I just wanted to make sure it wasn't on the net line. And then I realize not everything is going as well as initially forecast this year, namely beef, but most of the business is doing pretty well and you keep beating consensus estimates, raising synergy targets. So, I guess my question is this, if you had to focus on one reason why you didn't raise guidance today, would beef be the primary reason or is there something else we should be looking at? Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: So, yeah, as we look at Prepared Foods, we'll continue to deliver over 8% in Prepared Foods. Now, there's a couple of categories – by the way, the categories that are showing really good growth where we've given up a little bit of share and we're going to need to reinvest some of the raw materials savings in the back half to regain that share and protect those businesses for the long term. The other categories, it's probably export-related. With the West Coast port slowdown, if we're two to three months from seeing that, then that's going to linger a little bit into Q4, and we're just uncertain as to whether or not our estimate on that is correct. And then, these AI bans we've seen – even as late as last week, we saw a couple of other outbreaks or few more outbreaks of AI up in the upper Midwest in turkey and table egg flocks. And as those outbreaks continue, it continues to push out the time when those AI bans would be lifted. And so, we're predicting a little bit more export leg quarter pricing softness in the back half than what we had thought before. So, hopefully, that sums it up.

Kenneth B. Goldman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

It does. Thank you very much. Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: By the way, Ken, if we're overly conservative on these issues, then certainly our back half could improve further.

Kenneth B. Goldman - JPMorgan Securities LLC

Analyst

Great. Thank you very much. Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Kenneth Zaslow [BMO Capital Markets]. Your line is now open. Please proceed.

Kenneth B. Zaslow - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

Hey. Good morning, everyone. Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning.

Kenneth B. Zaslow - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

So, I just wanted to explore the Prepared Foods a little bit more. So, you're hitting 8.4% this quarter in margins and I guess the point that you're going to be having to reinvest some of the lower input costs. But how does it not sequentially improve throughout the year as your synergy targets go up? The at least or in excess of 8% seems like it should be in excess of 9% or in excess of 10%, can you help us understand that? Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: Well, certainly as we get into 2016, Ken, our expectation is to be rapidly approaching our new projected normalized range of 10% to 12%. And what we're talking about is just the flow of operating income improvement to get to that point. So, with the favorability in raw materials plus what we're going to need to reinvest back in some of these categories, we're going to be over 8% in the back half. If raw materials are a little more favorable than we thought, then certainly that number will improve. But you will see a sequential increase in operating income in our Prepared Foods segment through this fiscal year and then into next.

Kenneth B. Zaslow - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

Okay. And then going into 2016, the idea that you could get at least 10% growth, can you talk about what are your key assumptions to get you there because it seems again, not that it's a layup but it seems a little bit easier maybe than what you're saying, so I'm just trying to figure out exactly how you're getting to that at least 10% growth in 2016? Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure. So, we'll be in the second year of our synergy capture and as we said a little earlier that's got a little better. So, we see improvements there as we continue to reset the cost structure in Prepared Foods. For the first time in 18 months, we've now got the capacity to increase fully-cooked chicken sales, and this – and next year, 2016, will be the first year where we have an incremental year-over-year ability to have a full-year sale growth in fully-cooked chicken. If we're right, and we're at the – we've seen the trough in the beef supply cycle, then our beef numbers should improve sequentially next year over this. Oh, by the way, back on chicken, we're starting up the trade back plan in South Georgia this month, so we'll have a full year of those results in our number next year. I would think that pork is set up to have a pretty good year next year, and we think that's going to provide good raw material price discourse in our Prepared Foods business. Not to mention the fact we're going to be generating a lot of cash, so we'll get to pay down debt, we'll have opportunities to continue to invest in our business, that type of thing. And again, we've got great brands, and we've got them in great categories that are growing and we'll be using our brand growth to continue to drive this expectation of having stable consistent earnings growth over time.

Kenneth B. Zaslow - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

So, is the be at least 10% just a stab to just start there? It sounds like that's – because you got to lap all of these – the $20 million this quarter probably, there's probably going to be $15 million to $20 million next quarter as well, and then you have all of these things. If you let at least 10% just as a starting point and say, hey look, this is in line with our long-term growth targets, it's not really a true projection of where we're going to go, it could be higher than that. Is that a fair statement? Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: I can tell you, for us Ken, it's early. But I'm not – no, I wouldn't go so far as to say I'm taking a stab. I mean, we feel comfortable about our ability to deliver 10% EPS growth next year with a lot of reasons to do so but it's hard to get anymore granular than what we've said this early in 2015.

Kenneth B. Zaslow - BMO Capital Markets

Analyst

All right. Great. I appreciate it. Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure. Thanks, Ken.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Farha Aslam [Stephens, Inc.]. Your line is now open, please proceed.

Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

Hi. Good morning. Dennis Leatherby - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Good morning. Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning.

Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

Just kind of building on Ken's discussion about next year and 10% EPS growth. I think why Ken is focusing in on that because you'll have probably $150 million of incremental synergies next year. So, that's 7% of EPS growth right there. So, perhaps you could just share with us your outlook in to 2016 about the performance of the core business. And clearly, there is concern that, is it only 10% EPS growth because you think that poultry is going to feel pressure from increased pork and beef on the market. Could you just kind of address your 10% EPS growth targets with relation to how your various divisions – how you are expecting them to flow into next year? Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: Okay. So, yeah, I'll just break down through segments. So, we would certainly see the opportunity in our Prepared Foods segment to approach our normalized range. In Chicken, at this point, if we project the current soft leg quarter prices into next year, we're still at or above the top end of our normalized range in Chicken. Again, beef should get a little bit better than this year. We think pork will improve next year over this year. So, there's good – we feel comfortable that 2016 is set out to be a very good year for us.

Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

That's very helpful. And then just focusing on operations within particularly chicken and Prepared Foods, this quarter your volume in chicken was flat year-over-year, and the market was growing. If you look out into the second half of the year and into 2016, what do you expect Tyson's volume growth to be in chicken? And particularly in your cooked divisions, are all your plants up online? Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: So, I'll start at the back and go up. Yes, we have full capacity to produce fully cooked items now. So, we're all up and online. In terms of next year's growth, I'm going to – hey, Farha, it is really, really early, okay?

Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

Understood. Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: But I would say somewhere 1% to 2% sales volume growth, don't know that I would predict any production volume growth. Next year, my guess is we'll do a lot more of buy versus grow, which, by the way, there's some impact in that in the flat volume of this year, because this year we bought about 50% more loads a week as part of buy versus grow program than we did last year. So, we don't have the sales or the volume of the back half those birds, but that's a good thing. So, yes, we will have sales growth next year, and I would predict the revenue growth to outpace the sales growth. But in terms of production, we currently wouldn't see our production up.

Farha Aslam - Stephens, Inc.

Analyst

That's very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Adam Samuelson [Goldman Sachs & Co.]. Your line is now open. Please proceed. Adam Samuelson - Goldman Sachs & Co.: Yes. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Maybe shifting a little bit more into the Hillshire pieces, the 20% increase to the 2017 targets. Can you walk through the buckets, the synergy upside, you think it would come from? And along the same lines, if you think about $600 million of synergies, an incremental $350 million off of what you're expecting to realize in 2015, wouldn't you be at that, call it the high end of your 10% to 12% normalized Prepared Foods margin range? (29:56-30:02). Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: Okay, Adam, you were cutting out just a little bit. I think I got the gist of your question, so if I miss it, please ask a follow-up. But a reminder, our synergies number is all of Prepared Foods. And so, we talked about four primary categories, that being operational improvements, procurement, let's call it logistics, and then some organizational and fiduciary type stuff. But the big three categories where in operational improvements, procurement and manufacturing, and logistics. So, the over delivery so far in the first two quarters has been in the operational improvement, as we've been able – and this by the way primarily, but not exclusively impacted the legacy Prepared Foods Tyson business. We've seen some improvement as we've been able to move some of our product mix between plant to streamline our cost structure, streamline our operational efficiencies, and by the way, get on top with some service issues that we had in Q1. So, we feel great about our ability from this point forward to service our customer. As we go forward, what you'll really…

Operator

Operator

Yes, sir. Thank you. Our next question is from Michael Piken [Cleveland Research Co.]. Your line is now open, please proceed.

Michael L. Piken - Cleveland Research Co. LLC

Analyst

Yeah, good morning. Just wanted to touch base with you on the chicken and just sort of get your view on kind of how we should be interpreting some of the recent pullet data? And specifically, your thoughts on how much of the boiler eggs are going to Mexico versus in the past and how much you think is staying here? Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure, Michael. So, we're seeing about around number 7% growth in pullets. We think about 3% of that's going to Mexico, probably 8% of that is getting spent back to lower the hen age which leaves about 3% as the growth in the actual breeder flock. And by the way, so far year-to-date – I'm just look at fresh retail but obviously we've got great opportunities in foodservice. You're seeing growth there as well. But demand for chicken at – fresh chicken at retail just using a category that we can get numbers around is up about 3%, 3.5% versus a year ago. So, there is good, strong demand growth, and we think that will continue because we don't really see beef pricing halo changing. There's ample opportunities particularly at retail to drive a lot more pork volume and not hurt chicken volume at all. So, we see a very favorable environment coming out of this year and going into 2016 in terms of demand.

Michael L. Piken - Cleveland Research Co. LLC

Analyst

Terrific. That's really helpful. And then, I guess kind of following up on that. I mean, I know you talked a little bit about some of the issues with the ports and pork's reliance on exports. But it seems like with all these lower-cost hogs available, it would seem like maybe projecting into 2016 that there might be some incremental margin opportunities in pork with all that excess supply in your plants (36:08) higher utilization rates. So, how should we sort of think net-net about kind of the increase in pork supplies over your entire business? It sounds like you think there's enough demand out there to support the increased pork and chicken? Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: Certainly that is a favorable environment for our business. I would probably be a lot more comfortable talking about the impact to our pork margins overall a quarter from now, when we've seen some of this export West Coast port issue get resolved. And you'll start seeing freight flow more traditionally than what it has over the last 90 days to 120 days of course. So, we'll feel better about having a lot better commentary, more specific commentary about that on our next quarter but certainly the environment is set up well for our Pork business. And again, on the chicken demand, we see strong chicken demand at least through next year and I think carrying on because – and a good reason for that is as the millennials enter the marketplace, they over-index to chicken. And so, we think you're going to see good strong chicken growth and we also think you're going to see that beef halo continue; all that sets up very well for our business.

Michael L. Piken - Cleveland Research Co. LLC

Analyst

Terrific. And then lastly, if you could give us any sort of quantification on how much of a raw material benefit you might expect in the back half of the year in Prepared Foods from lower commodity prices, recognizing that you are investing more into the brands. Thanks. Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. Well, let me quantify that this way. The pork cutout is down about 40% versus a year ago and the items within the cutout that are showing the most weakness are the further processing items. So, if you look at those hams, bellies, trim, those are the items that have shown the most weakness. And certainly, that's favorable for our Prepared Foods business. So, hopefully, that gives you enough color around – now, one thing to add, we do over-index a little bit versus our competitors on beef because – our hotdog business and others, a couple of other businesses in our portfolio. But still, this weakness in the pork cutout, particularly among the grinding meat, is very favorable for our business.

Michael L. Piken - Cleveland Research Co. LLC

Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Robert Moskow [Credit Suisse]. Your line is now open, please proceed. Robert B. Moskow - Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC (Broker): Hi, Thanks. Donnie, I was wondering if I could ask you just to go a little bit deeper on the incremental step up next year on the synergies in Prepared Foods. You said it's logistic savings and a reset of the cost structure in Prepared Foods. But I guess I'm still a little unclear as to what that really means. I mean is it a function of procuring raw materials from your internal supplies that is something that you're not doing now but you plan to do next year? Is there something else happening in terms of new processes, or are you taking more steps in your supply chain footprint? Can you go a level deeper for us? Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure. It's not in buying raw materials or moving raw materials within the portfolio, because none of that is factored in. The big improvements are this: as we've been able to combine the footprint – if you'll think back, we had a lot of latent capacity in the Tyson Prepared Foods footprint, and when we bought Hillshire we had a perfect opportunity to then take all of that latent capacity out of the system and run more volume – by the way, more branded not private label volume, through a smaller footprint and lower our cost structure. There're still some opportunities now to go through those facilities and increase efficiencies. Remember, some of them are running new products they've not run before, so we'll see incremental benefits as we continue to work on continuous improvement and operational efficiencies in those plants. And that will re-rate…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Akshay Jagdale [KeyBanc Capital Markets]. Your line is now open. Please proceed.

Akshay S. Jagdale - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Good morning. Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning.

Akshay S. Jagdale - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

So, I wanted to continue on the Prepared Foods. You're doing really well obviously on the cost side. I wanted to focus on the revenue side. Can you tell us what the organic growth was this quarter in Prepared Foods if you exclude the acquisition impact? What was, like, organic growth? Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: I can tell you that both the legacy Prepared Foods business and let's call it the legacy Hillshire business, just for clarity, both were over plan on both volume and on operating income. So, we feel very good about how the Prepared Foods business is performing.

Akshay S. Jagdale - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. And just on innovation and more so broadly on reinvesting these cost savings into future growth, can you give us a little bit more color on the innovation pipeline? It was helpful that you'd talked about the lunch – launch into lunch, if I may, sandwiches, and that it didn't go as well as planned. Can you give us some more sort of broader and longer-term view on innovation because from what I remember one of the best parts about this acquisition was the R&D innovation team at Hillshire feeling much better about their prospects as part of Tyson. So, can you give us an update on that? Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure. It's been exciting to see both of the R&D teams come together combined with all of the innovation and business unit/teams come together and find a lot of opportunities between foodservice and retail to be able to grow our business through innovation. One of the primary tools that we use to measure whether or not we've got enough innovation in the pipeline is what we call a vitality index. What we do is we look at products that were created over the last three years and we determine our percentage of revenue that comes from these new products. So for 2015, we're expecting retail to be at about 14% vitality index. And, by the way, that's in the best in class range. And for food service, we're currently expecting more than 20%. So, these are very aggressive goals but we have a great team that continues to focus on looking at insights and create innovative solutions to fill the consumer gap so that we're always relevant. We know we're in relevant categories. In this way we know we've got relevant innovation inside those categories.

Akshay S. Jagdale - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. And then just one last one on chicken, just broadly speaking, longer term, is it your contention that the industry is not cyclical anymore? I mean, obviously, historically, the industry would over supply the market and margins would flip around within a year. It's not been the case this time around. It looks like that process might be starting now but you're saying it's not going to impact you in 2016. So, can you just talk a little bit broadly about do you think the industry is not cyclical anymore? If so, why? And if it is cyclical, when the cycle does turn, when the industry will overproduce which, I guess, none of us really know when that'll happen. Do you still believe you can grow EPS 10% when that happens? Thank you. Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: Okay, Akshay. So, we're certainly working very hard not to be cyclical. That's our whole path forward. So, if you look at our business and you look at, over the last two or three years, our improvement in our sales mix – by the way, even with the operational issues we had in our fully cooked retail chicken business, our branded chicken business, we're back to within a share point or two of where we were before that happened, so that the Tyson brand at retail is very meaningful, is very resilient, and we think it's got lots of opportunities to continue to grow. We've got a great, broad portfolio. We've got a great innovation pipeline, and by the way, new and improved innovative capability for the future. We've seen a lot of operational improvements. We've got plenty of cash flow to do whatever CapEx we need to do as illustrated by taking a South Georgia plant, and taking it from an unprofitable product mix into one of our most profitable categories, our fresh tray pack business. So, those are all – those are some of the things that we're doing to decrease our cyclicality to give our investors a consistent, stable earnings growth over time. And, yes, we do believe we can see 10% growth.

Akshay S. Jagdale - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Well, what about the industry? What's your view on the industry? Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: We spend all of our time, Akshay, focusing on what we're going to do. And if you'll remember, we put a forward demand picture out 12 months to 15 months. And then we built a production plan based on that demand curve so that we know how we can manage our business and our production. That keeps us in a position to buy versus grow. So, in a period of increased industry supply, then we'll simply buy that raw material, add value to it, and as long as we're focusing on the customer and growing our value-added sales, we've got a great footprint to do that within. By the way, we have plenty of value-added capacity over the next year too. So, we're very comfortable that in the scenarios that we can paint forward, we've got a great outlook.

Akshay S. Jagdale - KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc.

Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Brett Hundley [BB&T Capital Markets]. Your line is now open, please proceed. Brett Michael Hundley - BB&T Capital Markets: Hey, good morning, everyone. Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning. Brett Michael Hundley - BB&T Capital Markets: Donnie, I want to stay on the topic actually and maybe ask Akshay's question a different way as well. When you think about your strategy in chicken, specifically buy versus grow, can you discuss the level that you're comfortable taking your portfolio as far as buy versus grow as a percentage of your portfolio? And as the chicken cycle potentially slides off here in coming periods, I think there's more of a view today that we could see a slide instead of that sharp fall-off that we've traditionally seen across the industry. As the chicken cycle potentially slides off or in that type of scenario, is Tyson's Chicken business equipped to return margin in line with kind of what you're looking for today, 11% or so? Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: So, if I understood the question right on the front-end, we think we've got the opportunity depending on the part that we're buying. To buy up to as much as 10% of our sales, so – or the product that would go into our sales. So, we feel very good about the flexibility that we have within our network to manage buy versus grow. If you remember a couple of quarters ago, I think, Dennis, when we raised our normalized range in chicken... Dennis Leatherby - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Yes. Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: ...and certainly we've had great favorability in the marketplace for this year, it's certainly…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is Diane Geissler [CLSA]. Your line is now open. Please proceed.

Diane R. Geissler - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst

Good morning. Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: Good morning. Dennis Leatherby - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Vice President: Good morning.

Diane R. Geissler - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst

Yeah, I had a question about your comments on buy versus grow and just wanted to make sure I understood them. So, you said you had the capability of buying up to 10% of your sales on the outside market. Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: For that part, I'm sorry. For that part. So, if it's breast meat, we can buy about 10% of the breast meat that we sell and run it through our plants.

Diane R. Geissler - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst

Okay. So, just thinking forward, I mean, obviously, I think it's pretty clear to everybody that we're moving through a period where there's going to be significantly more production, whether or not you think 3% of the eggs are going to Mexico, or whatever that percentage is. You raised your expectations for total poultry availability this year from the time you reported your last quarter. So I guess, the question that I think the investors are often asking me, so how should we think about buy versus grow? Pretty clear you've probably been raising most of your own sales here recently, but as you look into the second half of 2015 and into 2016, can you talk about what your production plans are versus the industry to help give us a better idea about how exposed you're going to be to leg quarter prices here going forward, and how exposed you will be to the boneless, skinless breast meat price as we move to the summer and into 2016? Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: Sure. For the year, our production this year versus last will be flat. We've been up a little bit in the front half of the year. And after July 4, our production will be declining versus year-over-year. So, for the total fiscal year, our production volume will be flat, which, by the way, to your point, does reduce risk of export vulnerability and that type of thing. Of course, let me hasten on to add, because I don't think I've mentioned this before, and I think it's really important. Over the last three years, we've reduced the amount of export leg quarters we sell every bit of 30%. And if you go back to probably fiscal 2010, sometime in right 2009, fiscal 2010 we're probably down in half. So, we feel very good about – and these are the things that we're doing to provide a more consistent, stable return that grows over time. And so, we feel very good about our ability to maintain production flexibility and to improve our mix.

Diane R. Geissler - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst

And then in 2016? Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: I think – hey, I think our production will be basically flat in 2016. We think we'll be buying more raw material in 2016 than we do this year. And by the way, we're up 50% this year over last year. We think our sales volume will be up. I think I mentioned earlier about 1% or 2%. Our dollar sales will be up a little bit higher than that. But feel very comfortable that we can buy the raw material we need and add value to it – sorry, add value to it and be able to maintain our margin structure.

Diane R. Geissler - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst

Okay. And then I wanted to ask about the cash priorities which are pretty consistent period to period in terms of your list of items that you're spending your cash on. But I wanted to ask about share repo which – I'm generally not a big fan of share repo. But I think there's a big disconnect between the sell side recommending your stock and you seeming very confident in your ability to generate 10%-plus EPS growth. And the buy side, just if you look at kind of the fact that the stock has not done much over the last 12 months. Given your level of confidence in your ability to increase earnings 10% from here on out, why is share repo not sort of higher on that list of priorities if you really feel that your shares are kind of undervalued? Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: Great question, Diane. But remember, it's important for us to maintain an investment-grade rating. And so, what we're trying to do is get down below a net-to-debt-to-EBITDA of about 2 times, and we think kind of the sweet spot for us would be in that 1.5 times to 2 times area. So, when we get there, then, drawing off $1 billion and growing in free cash flow, that opens up the door for returning cash to shareholders in the absence of major growth opportunities. Now, I would hurry on to say that growing is, first and foremost, most important to us. But that being said, certainly we can start buying back stock at that time. I would see that as an opportunity at the start of 2016, which should be a good time to get started at the rate we're running.

Diane R. Geissler - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst

Okay. So, you think you'd be sub 2 times by the end of this fiscal year? Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: Yes.

Diane R. Geissler - CLSA Americas LLC

Analyst

Okay, terrific. Thank you. Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: Great. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from David Palmer [RBC Capital Markets]. Your line is now open. Please proceed.

David S. Palmer - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Thanks. Good morning. At your Analyst Day, you mentioned that you believe Tyson's Chicken segment margin would be 5% if the industry margin were to go to zero. Were you implying that 5% would be your best thinking for a worst-case margin for that segment? How did you arrive at those numbers? Thanks. Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: So, what we did is we just looked at our incremental improvement over the last four or five years in relative benchmarking services. The real point I think looking forward is we feel great about where our business is. Yes, we benchmark ourselves consistently, but for next year, we think we'll be at or above the upper end of our range, and our guys are running a great chicken business.

David S. Palmer - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

When you think about the export bans, typically – I don't know how many case studies there are or similar situations. How fast do those bans lift typically after an avian flu issue subsides? Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: Typically, and I'm emphasizing typically, 60 days, probably more likely 90 days. And so, for us Arkansas has been hit a little bit more than the other states because of our production footprint. And we saw a AI event in Arkansas early in the first week of March. But as we continue – those countries that banned the United States and not on a state-by-state basis, as you continue to see AI accessions in turkey and table egg flocks in the northern Midwest, you can pretty well figure a timeline no sooner than 60 days to 90 days out front before the ban will be lifted.

David S. Palmer - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

And then one last one – removing human antibiotics seems to be a restaurant industry move, at least, that will play out probably through the end of 2016 if you're using McDonald's as an indicator. What does this mean? Will this be the new price to play for the foodservice side and perhaps increasingly in the supermarket side? What ultimately will this mean for your Chicken segment margins over the next couple of years? Thank you. Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: David, it really won't have a margin impact. Our view is that by eliminating non – by eliminating the human-used antibiotics out of our poultry production by September of 2017, that is the most reasonable and responsible approach to balancing a global health concern about antibiotic resistance with our core value of taking care of the welfare of the animals that are entrusted to us. So, that was the impetus about what we're doing. It wasn't necessarily in reaction to anything any customers were doing. It was a matter of, we've been working on this effort for several years. We've reduced human-used antibiotics in our supply chain by over 80% in the last four years. And we now think we can see a point in the future, a couple of years from now, when we can not have to use human-used antibiotics in the poultry production. But I don't think – but back to the original point, it will not have a material impact on our cost.

David S. Palmer - RBC Capital Markets LLC

Analyst

Thank you. Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Tim Tiberio [Miller Tabak]. Your line is now open, please proceed. Tim Tiberio - Miller Tabak + Co. LLC: Good morning and thanks for taking my question. I guess, moving beyond some of the near-term export challenges, I wanted to get your thinking about, I guess, your medium-term global poultry or chicken demand growth. One of your global peers in Brazil recently stated that they felt that supply growth within Brazil, unlike the U.S., was still fairly benign. And I guess looking out in just 2016, if we're not seeing the supply growth come back as quickly from one of your global export competitors, do you think that this could actually create maybe a release valve or a window of opportunity if we can get past some of these export bans? Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: So, certainly that would be a favorable development. As we look forward, we think protein demand globally is going to continue to grow at about 2% year, maybe just a tad under that. We think chicken probably outpaces the other proteins just because it's the most efficient converter of feed into meat. That could be a headwind – so, there's still time for that dynamic to change so it's a little bit too early for us to call it, but certainly that being the case, that would be helpful to the back half of our 2016 year. Tim Tiberio - Miller Tabak + Co. LLC: Great. And just lastly, USDA mentioned that they're starting, I guess, testing within animals for the potential vaccine for the AI strain. I know it's very difficult to handicap at this point, but I guess, have you had initial conversations with USDA and FDA? I would assume, and do you have a high confidence level that we could get that into production potentially before we start seeing the southern migratory path of some of the wild waterfowls which I guess has really been the issue with the spread of AI this year? Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: It's really too soon to say, Tim. We've got lots of contacts in what I will call animal pharma that we work with and it's just too early to say whether or not we'll have an effective vaccine. Tim Tiberio - Miller Tabak + Co. LLC: Okay. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our last question is from Tim Ramey [Pivotal Research Group]. Your line is now open, please proceed.

Timothy S. Ramey - Pivotal Research Group LLC

Analyst

Thanks so much. Just a little bit of a follow-up on the last question, but Donnie, it's been a spectacular couple of years, but it wasn't spectacular for some of the reasons we thought it would be, which kind of relates back to the feeding the world, growing middle class where we are going to see more protein demand globally. I mean, do you kind of think that's just demand deferred or is that demand denied? Is that still part of the long-term story here? Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: Yeah. I really think it is. As we look across the globe, you've got economies in some of the key growth areas that have slowed down maybe more than we hear about. And so I think that demand growth is temporary, as we continue to look, and we've spent a lot of time over the last several months looking at population growth, income growth, those regions of the countries where that will happen, how much of the growth in food consumption, and how much of the growth in value-added food consumption is going to happen outside of the U.S., and it is significant over the next several years. So, yeah, I think maybe near-term, we've seen a little unexpected softness. But I think as we look out about three or four or five years from now, we'll look back on this time as a small dip in a period of time where we still saw about 2% consumption growth in protein worldwide.

Timothy S. Ramey - Pivotal Research Group LLC

Analyst

Great. And then just on food service, wondering if you're seeing any mix change in reaction to perhaps limited supply of liquid eggs, or the beef supply being so difficult. QSRs, is there incremental shift in kind of what the menu looks like? Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: We think that, of course, 50s have been pretty soft, but 90s have remained very, very high. So, we think as we – and it seems to us that the cutout is shifting a bit, and you've seen 50s prices firm back up. So, as we look at that, what we think that's going to do is drive incremental growth particularly at QSR in chicken. We also are seeing, fortunately, and because the QSR Mexican category is growing the most – so, QSR Chicken's probably up 8%, QSR Mexican is up 11%. And QSR Mexican favors our portfolio in a couple of ways. It uses dark meat, and it also is a pretty heavy user of protease, so that's good for our business, too. So, as we look at the trend going through the summer, we feel very good about it being favorable to our business.

Timothy S. Ramey - Pivotal Research Group LLC

Analyst

Excellent. Thanks. Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: You bet. Donald J. Smith - President & Chief Executive Officer: So, before we go, I'd like to say again that we are building momentum at Prepared Foods. We're capturing synergies, and we're transitioning to a less volatile, higher-return business that gives us the confidence that we'll achieve our annual guidance of $3.30 to $3.40 adjusted EPS this year and at least 10% EPS growth next year. Thanks for your time today and have a great week.

Operator

Operator

Thank you, speakers. That concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.