Christopher Posner
Analyst
Thanks, Joe. Great to hear from you. So let me first talk about how I think about the upcoming launch. And I'll preface that by saying it's incredibly exciting to launch a first and only product -- and I think about this launch in a couple of different ways. First, it's a significant, significant condition. And as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, the total addressable population is about 200,000 patients. It's very much underreported by patients and overlooked by physicians. And we see a lack of significant treatments. Again, the standards of care are typically the Benadryl Word of the world. So as I think about kind of the overall launch dynamics, it's incredibly conducive to a strong launch. One could think about, first, the overall market dynamics of reimbursement. We have reimbursement, as I mentioned, with TDAPA and now we have a J Word code, and we'll be ready to roll in April. It's a very concentrated physician audience of about 4,000 nephrologists. It's a very concentrated audience in terms of dialysis organizations where you have Fresenius and DaVita accounting for roughly 80% of all the dialysis patients. And lastly, and most important goes down to execution, and we have the right partner, Vifor, which is the leading nephrology company, and they have an established sales force with strong infrastructure. So if you think about those, Joe, in terms of the drivers for success, they point to a very strong adoption. The second part of your question was around comps and you mentioned the Amgen product Parsabiv. And we look at that as probably a good analog during the TDAPA period, but probably not a great analog after the TDAPA period. So during the TDAPA period, what we saw with Parsabiv is very strong uptake. It had, I believe, $300 million in the first year in 2018, $550, the second year and close to that, the third year. So cumulative total of about $1.3 billion in net sales. And we feel, again, that was the only product that ever went through TDAPA will be the second one. Post-TDAPA, obviously, there's a lot of differences. That had competition, that had a generic oral equivalent called Sensipar as well as a brand at Sensipar. We'll go into the period after TDAPA Joe with no competition. So again, net-net, the fundamentals of our value proposition remains incredibly strong. So I would conclude by saying the market dynamics support a very, very strong launch and a very strong trajectory, but also sustained launch success given the fact that the value proposition will be maintained with the lack of competition and the remaining unmet needs in the space.