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Tradeweb Markets Inc. (TW)

Q3 2024 Earnings Call· Wed, Oct 30, 2024

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good morning. And welcome to Tradeweb's Third Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today’s call is being recorded and will be available for playback. To begin, I'll turn the call over to Head of Treasury, FP&A and Investor Relations, Ashley Serrao. Please go ahead.

Ashley Serrao

Management

Thank you, and good morning. Joining me today for the call are our, CEO, Billy Hult, who will review our business results and key growth initiatives and our CFO, Sara Furber, who will review our financial results. We intend to use the website as a means of disclosing material non-public information and complying with our disclosure obligations under Regulation FD. I would remind you that certain statements in this presentation and during the Q&A may relate to future events and expectations and as such constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Statements related to among other things, our guidance are forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from these forward-looking statements. Information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ from forward-looking statements is contained in our earnings release, earnings presentation and periodic reports filed with the SEC. In addition, on today's call we will reference certain non-GAAP measures as well as certain market industry data. Information regarding these non-GAAP measures including reconciliations to GAAP measures is in our earnings release and earnings presentation. Information regarding market and industry data including sources is in our earnings presentation. Now let me turn the call over to Billy.

Billy Hult

Management

Thanks, Ashley. Good morning, everyone and thank you for joining our third quarter earnings call. This was another record quarter with revenue surpassing our previous best by nearly 10% to approach almost $450 million in revenue. Stepping back, the themes driving our results over the last few years remain unchanged. First, we continue to drive our market share higher in many of our markets as we collaborate with our clients to electronify and change behavior, be it our flagship swaps, surging U.S. credit or rapidly expanding EM offerings. Second, we continue to capitalise on the trend of multi-asset class trading. Almost 50% of our revenue growth continues to be generated away from our cornerstone rates business. And third, we continue to accelerate growth with targeted acquisitions and strong execution. On this note, we close the ICD acquisition in August and formerly welcomed the ICD team to the Tradeweb family. They have hit the ground running and early client feedback has been resoundingly positive. Both yield broker and rate fin revenues are tracking ahead of plan and we completed the integration of yield broker this month, five months ahead of schedule. We continue to think it's a great time to be in the risk intermediation business. A central banks retreat from our markets. Global monetary policies diverge, elections loom and fixed income markets continue to grow. This creates lots of opportunities for our clients to trade and make money, while the environment fluctuates, we remain focused on driving durable growth by investing in our future by hiring the best talent, deepening our client relationships and enhancing our technology. Diving into the third quarter, strong client activity, share gains and a risk on environment drove 36.7% year-over-year revenue growth on a reported basis. We continued to balance investing for growth and profitability…

Sara Furber

Management

Thanks, Billy, and good morning. As I go through the numbers, all comparisons will be to the prior year period, unless otherwise noted. Slide 9 provides a summary of our quarterly earnings performance. As Billy recapped earlier, this quarter we saw record revenues of $449 million that were up 36.7% year-over-year on a reported basis and 36.5% on a constant currency basis. We derived approximately 38% of our third quarter revenues from international clients and recall that approximately 30% of our revenue base is denominated in currencies other than dollars, predominantly in Euros. Our variable revenues increased by 50% and total trading revenues increased by 37%. Total fixed revenues related to our four major asset classes were up to 2.4% on a reported and constant currency basis. Credit fixed revenue growth was primarily driven by increases to our subscription fees and by the addition of new dealers this year, and other trading revenues were up 4%. As a reminder, this line fluctuates as it reflects revenues tied to periodic technology enhancements performed for our retail clients. Year-to-date adjusted EBITDA margin of 53.5% increased 111 basis points on a reported basis when compared to our 2023 full year margins. Moving on to fees per million on Slide 10 and a highlight of the key trends for the quarter. You can see Slide 16 of the earnings presentation for additional detail regarding our fee per million performance this quarter. For cash rates products, average fees per million were up 1%, primarily due to an increase in Australian government bonds fee per million. For long tenure swaps, average fees per million were up 17%, primarily due to a decline in compression activity. Duration in Q3, 2024 was relatively in line with the Q3 of 2023. For cash credit, average fees per million decreased…

Billy Hult

Management

Thanks Sara. As a technology company focused on the financial markets, we thrive in change and complexity. We believe in a strategy of evolution and balance, not revolution. We are excited about the opportunities to engage with our clients to expand our multi-asset class footprint and we feel good about our long-term future growth outlook. With a couple of important month-end trading days left in October, which tend to be our strongest revenue days. October revenues are trending at record levels up approximately 30% relative to October, 2023. The diversity of our growth remains a theme. We are seeing strong volume growth across global government bonds, mortgages, repos and corporate credit. Our October IG and high yield share are both trending lower than September levels. Our IG and high yield share are mainly being impacted by lower levels of industry PT so far in October. I would also like to welcome Daniel Maguire to our Board of Directors. Dan brings more than 25 years of experience in financial services. Having known Dan for a long time, I think very highly of him. I am confident that he will make a significant impact as we expand our footprint and broaden the boundaries of innovation at Tradeweb. Finally, I would like to conclude my remarks by thanking our clients for their business and partnership in the quarter, and I want to thank my colleagues for their efforts that contributed to the record quarterly revenues and volumes at Tradeweb. With that, I will turn it back to Ashley for your questions.

Ashley Serrao

Operator

Thanks, Billy. As a reminder, please limit yourself to one question only. Feel free to hop back in the queue and ask additional questions at the end. Operator, you can now take our first question.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Chris Allen of Citi.

Chris Allen

Analyst

Just wanted to ask on credit. We've had increasing questions as to how Tradeweb’s platform has been evolving from here relative to market access, it was called out specific new developments on their platform just in terms of their enhanced algo suite, enhanced deal of protocols, improved trading front end. Some of these developments look like catch ups to Tradeweb, others look to position them for increased block penetration. So it'd be great to hear how Tradeweb stacking up here and how they -- are how you are positioned for increased block penetration moving forward?

Billy Hult

Management

Sure. It's Billy. Yankees won last night, so I'm in a good mood or most of us at Tradeweb are in good moods. When I kind of think about sort of the markets Chris that we're in, I always kind of describe it as sort of we're on this continuous journey of learning. That's how I think about and describe our business. And when we think about the journey around our credit business, I think the beginning of that journey kind of started kind of four or five years ago from our perspective with some open questions, can we really compete in credit? Do we understand the credit business the right way? And then you kind of like flash forward to today, when really we're kind of neck and neck in the IG business as a market leader in the space. And I think that says a lot like over the last two years, when you think about the protocols that we're in, our RFQ, volume is up over 200%, 210%. Our portfolio trading, these are like massive numbers up over 700%. Our all-to-all is up over 130% and our session’s business, our suite business also has done extremely well. So the approach from our perspective remains unchanged. We do something I think that I'm very proud of. We respond to client feedback very, very well. And so from our perspective in credit that's launching what we call RFQ edge, which offers really top tier analytics, dealer upsize, which promotes block trading, and we continue to enhance our portfolio trading workflows. So it's a process and I kind of say this, I think in a very clear way, while we are very strong leaders around innovation, from our perspective, sometimes adoption is crucial. And so the block and tackling of sort of delivering what we've built to our most important clients continues. And as we do that, obviously there's this kind of dual approach around improving our technology, our user interface providing advanced analytics and doing the kind of hard work around delivering best in class technology. Team, Chris, like super focused, really, really proud of them and we're going to continue to stay focused in this area and perform really well.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Bill Katz of TD Cowen.

Bill Katz

Analyst

Appreciate all the disclosure. Maybe just I know one question, but just one clarification. Just Billy, in terms of your commentary around fee per million, given the duration and the curve, so I want to make sure that's all both incremental. So it will be 5% to 6% plus 6% to 7%, so I want to make sure I heard that correctly. And then the broader question I have just sticking on competition for a moment. I guess one of your competitors market access has linked up with ICE to potentially expand their trading in credit as well. I was just wondering if you could address that. And maybe the broader question is, as private markets continue to get a bigger role in capital markets, how does that affect the long-term algorithm for growth?

Billy Hult

Management

Sure. Good -- all good questions. Sara you take the first one, I just want to make sure we clarify that to you.

Sara Furber

Management

Yes. It's you heard it accurately. So the fee per million you heard is correct, and then maybe you want to go to private credit.

Billy Hult

Management

Yes. Listen, I don't really have a huge comment on what kind of -- what market access is doing with ICE, I mean, we obviously, I think have levered our retail business and that's given us an advantage into credit for a long time. Feel really good about that. I've always kind of like thought and taken the approach, like really like live and breathe and understand your clients obviously be super aware of the competitive landscape, but I really don't have a massive comment on what they're doing with ICE. But it's a good question. And so kind of like on that theme, just in terms of private credit for a moment, focus on existing business stay in front of of clients on their most important themes and then execute really well. And then how do you kind of pivot into creating new opportunities in adjacent markets like this evolution from kind of paper markets to more transparent markets. That's the sort of like lines on this company's hands that's kind of like who we are. So from our perspective, I think, in the private market area, lots of headlines and I think one of the developments for sure that we have our eye on is Apollo's launch of an ETF. It combines kind of public and private credit in conjunction with State Street. I think that's sort of like worth following, apart from the worlds of kind of private and public credit converging, which is a first, it's especially interesting around what we would say is Apollo's commitment to provide liquidity intraday in the form of executable firm bids. That's worth watching and worth kind of saying. And so, as I say that, I think what I'm describing sounds very similar to the markets that Tradeweb kind of lives and breathes in and what we have seen happen multiple times in the fixed income markets and where we have tended to play a leading role in collaborating with our clients to develop and improve secondary market trading. So what you get from us is this day in and day out rigor on our existing businesses and existing marketplaces and then the kind of eyes on expansion. And so we're clearly watching what's happening in that space with open eyes.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Richard Fellinger of Autonomous.

Richard Fellinger

Analyst

I wanted to ask about expenses. Adjusted EBITDA margin expansion remains pretty solid year-to-date versus the 50 basis points last year. May maybe just on the longer term outlook, could you remind us how you think about expense growth and margin expansion as we start to think about the next few years?

Sara Furber

Management

It's Sara. When we talk about expenses, I think it's always helpful to take a multi-year view, and so if you look at our historical growth just as a baseline from 16 to 23, we'll take this year out for a second. We averaged about 10% year-over-year growth. If you looked at that period, you would know and obviously we spent a lot of time on this, it's not linear and it depends, that expense growth really depends on what the revenue growth environment is, the business investments that we're making. And so within that average of 10%, we've seen lows of 4% in certain years and 19% as an example and highs of 15% based on environment and also things like acquisition. So when we're looking forward, like, bring it forward to the current quarter, no better example, I think. We've seen expense growth about 25%, well above our historical average, but really make sense given the strong environment that we're in, the strong top line performance and then you factor in two acquisitions that we've made this year and some of the accelerated investments we've talked about previously. So I think one of the big things as you think about going forward that's helpful to unpack is the biggest driver of our expense growth is typically comp. If you take this quarter, 70% of the comp growth as an example is discretionary or variable. So you really see the flexibility in our operating model, whether it's performance related compensation or new hiring that's at our discretion and obviously the inclusion of ICD. We typically give our guidance out next quarter and we'll continue to follow that cadence. But there are a couple of things as you're thinking about 2025 worth calling out some of which we did call out in our prepared remarks. One is ICD. Obviously, there's seven months of incremental expense around that acquisition. That's about $35 million to factor into your models. And then the second is higher occupancy expense. We are moving our New York headquarters next year and given the overlap in rent and the larger footprint that it will have, we've highlighted about $7 million in the second half of next year to expect as an uptick in those lines. Beyond that, what I will say is given the operating leverage of the business, we do expect to have margin expansion. We're still committed to that. We obviously want to balance investing for growth with scaling the platform. I would expect that margin expansion to be slightly more muted given some of the things I just called out, but we've maintained a lot of flexibility and we've kind of demonstrated that track record throughout the years. So hopefully that helps and we'll obviously formalize expense guidance next quarter.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Alex Blostein of Goldman Sachs.

Alex Blostein

Analyst

I wanted to talk for a minute about fee per million trends in the interest rate swap business. There are a number of crosscurrents in that business obviously, volumes clearly very strong, duration shifting around a little bit and compression trading can kind of swing things up and down as well. So, but all in, you guys put up over $3 in fee per million and swaps over one year. How do you think about I guess the trajectory there from here and maybe a broader comment on revenue growth algorithm in this business over the next one to two years?

Billy Hult

Management

So maybe like starting point, I would say, very confident about the long-term growth potential of that business, like starting with that. Only 30% of the market is currently electronified. And so from our perspective, out of central casting that kind of leaves plenty of room for how we think about expansion there. So big area of focus for the company. Driving revenue growth by further electronifying existing client flows is like out of our playbook and continuing to onboard new clients globally. I don't want to say like rather than be concerned with the fluctuations into your question, because they're really good question as you're understanding our business but like that sort of becomes the kind of focus of the company. And so several organic growth initiatives that I would kind of highlight for you. First, I would say the inroads and the success that we've had in EM. Second thing I would say that request for market protocol that micro protocol RFM is a big one. I give the international team a tremendous amount of credit for that. It's really understanding the most sophisticated client's workflow and then replicating that in a way that works for them and works for us. That's a pretty big deal. Interestingly, I think these kinds of growth initiatives carry a higher fee per million, so I would kind of like link it back to you that way. To address maybe for a second, your specific question about the kind of the fee per million outlook on a macro level, I think several factors obviously could influence that moving forward. And I kind of called some of them out in my prepared remarks, Alex, but what I would say is, clients continue to focus on the shorter end of the curve and we…

Sara Furber

Management

Alex, I'd just add, because I think Billy made this point in his remarks, but it helps just quantify kind of what Billy's highlighting as this algorithm. If you think about that duration increase and he talked about rate drops. If one year increase in duration in our global swaps business, maybe going from 10% to 11% increases fee per million by 9%. So gives you some sense of magnitude. And similarly, which he mentioned I think in his prepared remarks, that drop of rates by a 100 basis points, 5% to 6%. So you can see the flexibility and sort of the underlying strength going forward around those moves.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Michael Cyprys of Morgan Stanley.

Michael Cyprys

Analyst

Just wanted to ask about ICD with the deal now closed. I was hoping you could elaborate a bit on how you expect this to contribute to revenue and earnings as you look out over the next couple years. What sort of steps might you be able to take to help accelerate the growth of the ICD business over the next couple of years? What might be some of the low hanging fruit versus what aspects might be a bit harder or take a bit longer to achieve? And then just more near-term, what might be some of the opportunities to offset any potential slower demand from money funds with rate path expected to move lower?

Sara Furber

Management

Look to reiterate and I know we said this last quarter, we're so pleased to have ICD be part of the Tradeweb family and in particular really pleased with the collaboration of that management team with our management team. It's been a seamless transition since we closed the deal. Opportunities to accelerate, we've talked about this but I think it really falls into two buckets. In the low hanging fruit or sort of the more near-term bucket, we see an opportunity to really expand ICD's reach globally given our footprint and our sales force to really penetrate more clients internationally as well as domestically across financial firms. So I'd say that is probably if there is low hanging fruit, the low hanging fruit because it's not dependent on technology build. So that's more near-term and obviously that's already underway. The second piece is really expanding ICD's product offering on their portal and tapping into cross sell where we're putting our Tradeweb products and making them available. So things like U.S. treasuries would be the first that we're going to start with that build is underway. We expect that to go live in the first half of next year. So that's a little bit longer because you do want to wait for that technology build. The good news is the dialogue with the clients is robust and actually quite specific. There have been a number of flash surveys that we've done. 65% of ICD clients have expressed interest in buying U.S. treasury. So we're not building it and hoping that they're interested. We're really building it based on an informed dialogue that both teams are having on a coordinated basis with the client base. So I'd say those are maybe the two biggest pockets to highlight around opportunities to accelerate. The…

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Dan Fannon of Jefferies LLC.

Dan Fannon

Analyst

Billy a question on portfolio trading. Competition within this protocol has been increasing. You have some industry participants doing certain trades for free, while pricing hasn't changed at a headline level. How are you thinking about pricing pressure over time?

Billy Hult

Management

Yes. We would say competition is good for the market when we were the ones chasing. And now that we're the ones being chased, we say competition is good for the market, there is that expression kind of you get better through competition. And I think that the competitive landscape and most importantly the clients win. I don't know, it's like iron sharpens iron, kind of like that's how we think about the world. So no areas of competition kind of catches us off guard. And our brand as you know very well, I think is built on value creation and innovation. And that's how we aim to lead and win share. I think, maybe the important thing for a moment to appreciate is that obviously like prices and everything and we've learned that in the rates based competing against Bloomberg and charging for the value we create. Maybe stating the obvious a little bit. I think, when the landscape uses fee holidays or they rely on fee holidays, we think that's a short-term fix. In portfolio trading, we have been, I think from my perspective quite thoughtful about pricing and we have clients that are very willing to pay for what we would describe to you as unique workflow customization, unique functionality like net spotting, unique technology such as being able to execute the most line items in a trade. So, we feel good about where our pricing model is Dan to say that very straightforward. Maybe kind of deep down, I would say my instinct is the competitive landscape is -- will eventually kind of rationalize their pricing and kind of grow out of these fee holidays. I think that's what we would kind of expect. And so the important thing I think is to appreciate that from our perspective, portfolio trading is here to stay and poised to increase significantly. So there's going to be plenty of volume to be shared in a competitive market. It's that expression about the bigger the pie gets, and I think our instinct is our slice is going to be quite big. So we feel good about our position, obviously laser, like continue to focus on the future end state of portfolio trading, which from our perspective is going to be more about this kind of, like, I said like in the last question, like adoption continued work around adoption, better analytics and advancements in kind of the use cases of it all.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Kyle Voigt of KBW.

Kyle Voigt

Analyst

So with ICD now closed, you still have excess cash in the balance sheet, no debt capital flexibility. As we're thinking about the future for capital deployment M&A, can you talk about your willingness to execute on M&A while still in the process of integrating ICD and also if you could share whether there are any notable asset classes or client segments where you feel like there you are still underpenetrated, but where there could also be synergy with the broader trade web platform.

Billy Hult

Management

That's going to kind of be sort of a little bit of me and then Sara, you're going to follow me on this. First thing I want to say is I want to give Sara like a ton of credit for adding like a tremendous amount of rigor through the organization over the last couple of years as we've done kind of three different acquisitions and really worked sort of very hard at integrating them in a way that kind of works for us. And I think doing those kind of things leads to more opportunities. So I would start with kind of saying as our organic growth remains really obviously M&A is going to continue to be our kind of preferred use of cash. And so I think we are maybe quietly or a little bit beneath the surface building quite a solid track record of executing on these deals efficiently and creating value. And so that's my point around a dimension that Sara has added to the company. Whether or not that's the yield broker integration, which is ahead of schedule, I think Ratefin is a big one for us. And that integration is also progressing faster than we expected. So, Sara mentioned, obviously, like, excited to close the ICD acquisition this past quarter, the teams have very quickly ramped up efforts to expand ICD's sales business long-term. I think it's crucial to continue to make these kind of, like, strategic bets to enhance client experience. Those bets are kind of very important bets for the company and that's about kind of propelling future growth. Something that we feel very strongly about. Let me hand it maybe to you for a second.

Sara Furber

Management

I would say we remain active exploring deals in the market. It is an active market. We're very focused on integration, but we think we can obviously do both at the same time. I'd also highlight that on an inorganic basis, we look at things beyond outright acquisitions. We continue to explore several minority investments that we've completed, particularly in the digital space and partnerships there. So I think there are a lot of levers and we have the bandwidth to execute well on all of those. But obviously our focus is on integrating what we thought really well in the near-term, more broadly, just in terms of capital management. There's really no change. I feel like I'm a broken record. So there's no change in our philosophy here. First priority is investing organically in the business opportunities that we see and those we've talked about. M&A second top priority for cash. And then we follow it with buybacks and dividends. On the buyback, same philosophy, we typically use that to offset dilution. From stock based compensation, we've said we will continue to be opportunistic with repurchases with an eye towards EPS accretion dilution. Obviously want to be thoughtful there. And then I guess just on the dividend over the last couple years we've increased our dividend by 25% given our strong earnings and free cash flow growth. And I expect the board continues to evaluate that based on a number of factors, but clearly will factor in our earnings and free cash flow growth as they look at that strategy going forward.

Operator

Operator

Next question comes from Patrick Moley of Piper Sandler.

Patrick Moley

Analyst

I just had one on the rates business, Billy, you talked in your prepared remarks and a little bit here in Q&A on the strength you're seeing in swaps. So we're just hoping you could expand on that and talk about maybe what you're seeing across the rest of the rates franchise. And then additionally, just broadly given the environment and the rate outlook, would you say that you're seeing velocity pick up across your markets?

Billy Hult

Management

So, like, I think it's a good time to be in the REITs business. And we kind of say that in a very clear way you have a real rate environment. Then you kind of think about the fact obviously that the debt markets are growing, central banks are not the kind of buyers in the market that they were. And so private sector intermediation is back while it is growing. And so we think that's a good environment for us. And so I think it was like third quarter ‘24, our treasury market volumes are up over 30%, variable revenues up over -- up close to 50%. Interest rate swap market volumes up 30% with those variable revenues up over 60%, mortgage market volumes, which I think is an important thing for us to continue to track up 20%, variable revenues up 25%. These are very strong indicators of why it's good to be in the rates business or the risk intermediation business if you're one of the banks. I would make around the velocity of it all. I would make a sort of continued point around obviously the strength of the alternative market makers continuing to play a significant role in these businesses. I've highlighted firms like Citadel in the past. My instinct is we're going to continue to have more of that and then a sort of more modernized version of the strongest players in the space, historically, which are the big banks. From our perspective, that's a convergence that's going to continue to lead into more velocity. Plus you factor in obviously a continue and growing level of sophistication with the buy side community, which has obviously been the kind of like gas in the engine around our AiEX protocol. These are like pretty strong signs that velocity is going to continue to amplify and increase in the space.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Benjamin Budish of Barclays.

Benjamin Budish

Analyst

I wanted to ask about the mortgage business. So rates have generally been falling. We've seen the business come to life a little bit. Can you kind of talk about what you're seeing there under the surface and then how important are sort of continued decline in rates to growth in that business? As you see it, it looks like in October at least the sort of average 30 year rate is picking back up. So do you think that is that important or what other -- what are the other kind of important drivers to think about for mortgages in particular?

Billy Hult

Management

Two things, Ben. It's kind of like as rates drop or when rates drop more, I think we want to think about it as kind of straightforward. Obviously, our expectation is that straightforward mortgage volume will increase. And obviously, as you know very well, that's a business that we have a very strong kind of leadership role in, whether or not that's in the client dealer channel or the wholesale channel. And then maybe what I would say is as importantly, I think you kind of enter into the zone of how we describe or think about convexity hedging. And so we would expect to see a further increase in volume from kind of mortgage end users into the swaps market. And we think that has a sort of driving force for our swap volumes going forward. So it's a little bit of a combination of straightforward mortgage volume plus maybe a amplification into the swap space. And then I would say maybe kind of like in a world where you try to hit on all cylinders. But obviously you guys know better than I do, that can be a hard thing to do. I think as a company we're going to have a continued effort around specified pools, which we think is an important piece of that market. There are a lot of aspects of that market that from our perspective have some sort of ability to replicate what we've done in credit. They tend to trade on bid lists and offer lists. There's a concept around portfolio trading that from our perspective exists around pools more work for us as a company to do there. And we think of that as an opportunity given the strong, strong foundation and reputation that we have in the overall mortgage business.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Ken Worthington of JP Morgan.

Ken Worthington

Analyst

So it's been a great year for activity levels. Maybe another great year across your major asset classes. How are you seeing the potential for rates, high grade, high yield activity for next year. Is greater industry activity levels, do you see it as being possible? Is it likely? Which of your flagship products do you think you have the greatest conviction that you can see better industry volumes in for next year? And if activity levels become more challenged, where do you see the potential for increased market share from here to be able to most likely offset any potential for weaker activity levels?

Sara Furber

Management

Yes. I mean, I think it's interesting. I'll start with the back half of your question. I'm not great at forecasting markets, so I don't want to be in that business. But what we do spend a lot of time on is making sure the portfolio of businesses we have performs and gains market share in any kind of environment. I think one of the things that gives us a lot of confidence in this and I know Billy mentioned it in terms of his remarks, which kind of go through different asset classes, the rates business as an example, it's been a tremendous market environment for our rates business and in particular swap. That said, when you look at the growth, the numbers that we put up in terms of swap, 60% of that growth has come from what we would say increases in market share through either adding new clients, existing client increasing penetration as opposed to just market volumes. And so that's when we think about the algorithm of how we grow this business, we start to try to unpack what's happening just purely in the market versus what's causing us and how can we increase our market share above and beyond industry volumes. And so you could do that analogy in credit as well. I think that's probably about 40% away from those healthy market volumes. And so I think that gives us a lot of confidence. Obviously, the growth rates we put up are quite significant. And so 40% or 60% depending on the range is still an incredibly high well over that double-digit growth rate that we target on a long-term basis.

Billy Hult

Management

I think that's spot on answer. I'd say like a little bit can sort of in a way that we would think about it, like feeling pretty strong that as we get into next year sort of more continued amplification of volume in the mortgage business? And then a little bit to your kind of question around like where's the market share if the volumes slow down? I think Sara hit that. I think when you think about the all in interest rate swap, electronification still being pretty low and then the history for the company around doing these kinds of micro innovations that take phone use on to Tradeweb, we feel pretty confident there. Other thing I would say is, both Sara and I mentioned sort of the r8fin integration, which we think critical around both our institutional treasury business plus an amplification into our wholesale treasury business. We think we're going to pick up market share in that space sort of regardless of where industry volumes go. So that would be a little bit of a sort of blueprint for us around where we think we have the ability to continue to pick up market share both competitively plus that phone based market share.

Sara Furber

Management

And then I'd say like one of the areas I just call out specifically that we're extremely confident about just take a crystal ball, that's the only one I want to talk about. We have seen a consistent track record in terms of the electronification of those markets, particularly EM swaps, which is at the core of our franchise. So we're run rating that business at $60 million, but that market is clearly going in one direction. Regardless of what happens with rates or inflation, the electronification in that space and our investment in that space, we're extremely confident. We'll capitalize on where that market is headed.

Operator

Operator

Next question comes from Alex Kramm of UBS.

Alex Kramm

Analyst

I know it's late in the call. Actually one quick housekeeping question before, I don't know if you've clarified, but the 30% increase in revenue in October that you talked about, is that an organic number? Because I think ICD adds, I think high-single-digits. So maybe clarify that, but then just coming back to the credit commentary, I know a lot of detail on what you're doing earlier in the call but I just want to bring it back to the numbers for a second, because if I look over the last five, six quarters or so, yes, your market share and credit is up a little bit, but it seems to have all come from PT and that's obviously a little bit more under attack. And if you look at your RFQ, your all trade those market shares have been really flattish. So given that you're signing up new institutional investors or clients, I think up almost 10%. Like are those people not really contributing or why is the take up in those traditional segments not really happening outside of PT?

Sara Furber

Management

It's Sara, I'll take the housekeeping question. So the 30% that we highlighted in our remarks is an all in revenue growth rate, but even if you strip out acquisitions, we're looking at 25% organic growth rates. So it's still strong in October. And then maybe I'll transition to Billy on the other part.

Billy Hult

Management

I said Alex, when we opened up the call that I was in a good mood because the Yankees won. And that's a very good question. It's certainly not going to put me in anything other than even an equally good mood. Look, you're asking a really good question and I made an interesting point, I think around how we view competition in the space. What I would say to you in a very straightforward way is that the kind of inroads that we make are never perfectly kind of straight lines. So I don't want you to kind of overread one month versus the next month and then kind of form a theory on that. I think the track record around kind of innovation is obviously quite good. And I think the way that we are able to kind of present into the market these different protocols, I think works period. We have a very strong view that the credit market wants a more balanced environment. I think we've done a very good job of bringing the banks back into the equation. Obviously, we've differentiated ourselves along the way through portfolio trading, through net spotting and hedging. And I think we're going to have further room to grow and succeed in some of these kind of traditional protocols that you mentioned. If I were going to sort of tell on myself for a moment, maybe what I would say is, we're always looking for sort of like the things that aren't working as well as that we want them to work. I mean, always as a company, I think that's a really important ethos that kind of Sara and I kind of live by. Bring me your problems, what's not working. And so continuing to build out our responder network in the all-to-all market will remain a big focus for us as a company. And I think we're coming now from a position of strength, where we feel quite comfortable that we're going to able to put the resource into the market to allow us to continue to succeed at a high rate. We welcome competition. Obviously, we think that's going to continue. And I think the buy side client continues to benefit from the way that we're putting resource into the market and look forward to how things will continue to develop and feel good about it.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. We have run over the 60 minutes. So this will conclude the question-and-answer session. I would now like to turn it back to Billy Hult, CEO, for closing remarks.

Billy Hult

Management

Thank you all very much for joining us this morning. Great questions from a great group. As always, if you have any follow-up questions, feel free to reach out to Ashley, Sameer and the team. Go Yankees. Have a great day, everyone. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.