Earnings Labs

UFP Industries, Inc. (UFPI)

Q1 2008 Earnings Call· Thu, Apr 17, 2008

$93.35

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the first quarter 2008 Universal Forest Products Incorporated earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn the presentation over to our host for today's call Ms. Lynn Afendoulis, Director of Communications. Please proceed.

Lynn Afendoulis

Management

Thank you, good morning and welcome to Universal Forest Products first quarter 2008 conference call. On the call today are Executive Chairman, William G. Currie; CEO and President Michael B. Glenn and CFO Michael Cole. Please be aware that any statements included in this call that are not historical are forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 as amended. Such forward-looking statements are based on the beliefs of the company’s management as well as on assumptions made by and information currently available to the company at the time such statements were made. The company does not undertake to update forward-looking statements to reflect facts, circumstances, assumptions or events that occur after the date the forward-looking statements are made. Actual results could differ materially from those included in such forward-looking statements. Investors are cautioned that all forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainty. Among the factors that could cause actual results to differ materially are the following: adverse lumber market trends, competitive activity, negative economic trends, government regulations and weather. These risk factors and additional information are included in the company’s reports on Form 10-K and 10-Q on file with the Securities and Exchange Commission. This call is the property of Universal Forest Products. Any redistribution, retransmission or re-broadcast of this call in any form without the expressed written consent of Universal is strictly prohibited. At this time I would like to turn the call over to Bill Currie.

William Currie

Management

Thank you, Lynn. Good morning everyone and thanks for joining our first quarter Universal Forest Products conference call. We appreciate your interest and we appreciate your support. Our first quarter results are disappointing. We're not used to losing money and we don’t like it. As a matter of fact in my 38 year career with the company, except for maybe one other quarter many years ago, these last two quarters are the only ones where we ever lost money. Here is how it went down: January was devastating. We lost all the money for the quarter in January and that was due to absolutely horrible weather across the country, no ability to operator-ship, no one wanting inventory and very low consumer confidence. February started to get a little better, we about broke even. In March we made some money. We thought we are going to make enough in March to pull the quarter out, but got blasted the last two weeks with heavy ice and snow and wind and whatever else the good Lord decided to give us and it busted our opportunity to have a positive quarter; but the sun’s out now. We like what we see. We are not changing our guidance for the year. We picked up a lot of new business. We further diversified our markets and our product mix and we think there will be recovery, in the lumber market in the third and fourth quarter this year. Now before Mike Glenn, gets into depth on the details on everything we have done and we’re doing. I will turn the call over to Mike Cole to go through the numbers. Mike?

Michael Cole

CFO

Thanks Bill. I will start by reviewing our income statement for the quarter. As you noticed in the press release, our total sales for the quarter decreased by 11%. We estimate this was comprised of a 5% decrease in unit sales and a 6% decline in overall selling prices due to a soft lumber market and pricing pressure in the site-built market. Reviewing by market, our sales for the DIY market decreased 12% compared to the first quarter of last year, primarily due to a decline in unit sales as a result to the effect of the housing markets and a decline in consumer spending. Our sales for the manufactured housing markets decreased 14% for the quarter primarily due to a decrease in unit sales. While HUD-code shipments were slightly up through February we believed modular production declined significantly this quarter. Our sales to the site-built construction market decreased 21% this quarter, due to an estimated 12% decrease in unit sales and a 9% decrease in our average selling prices due to a soft lumber market and intense pricing pressure. Single-family housing starts through March were also reported 39%. We’ve been able to mitigate some of the challenges of the single-family market and our volume by pursuing multi-family and like commercial business and increasing our turnkey framing activities. Finally our sales to the industrial market increased by 5% for the quarter primarily due to a 12% increase in unit sales. Unit sales growth this quarter was a result of acquisition and continuing to gain market share and add new customers, including concrete forming. Moving down the income statement, our first quarter gross margin decreased to 11.2% from 13.4% last year and our gross profit dollars decreased 25%. These declines were primarily due to greater pricing pressures due to the --…

William Currie

Management

Thank you, very much Mike. Now Mike Glenn, will give you the business update. Mike?

Michael Glenn

Management

Thanks Bill. Like Bill said, I don’t like where our markets are either. They are fragile and they react to the tiniest bit of news or movement. We had a couple of things to deal with in the first quarter; very depressed lumber market that’s trading at 90 and 85 levels; oil prices that are affecting our freight and raw material costs and a soft economy, but we're focused on the things that we can impact, that will result in a positive long-term change. For example, we're focused on our industrial business, which continues to grow by double-digits. We are focused on making sure we are always size right for our business opportunities. Because of that today we are lean and strong and working side-by-side with our customers in all markets to help them achieve the same thing. We are focused and growing our commercial and multi-family construction, which has helped us create a better balance in the site-built construction and help minimize losses in the first quarter. Because their financial position is strong and our business model offers us the opportunity in many market not just one, we are confident in our future, but we look forward to put in these tough years behind us. Let’s go through a brief review of our markets starting with site-built. Single-family housing is weak and will stay that way for the year. Our sales were up 21% in site-built; our single-family housing starts were off 39% through February. Our focus on light commercial and multi-family housing construction and our framing operations, we are able to perform better than the market, is because both of those areas saw growth during the first quarter. We intend to continue this focus, a balance between single-family, multi-family and light commercial. We’ve also had to deal with…

William Currie

Management

Thank you, Mike and thank all of you for listening to what we had to say, we are going to open the phone lines now for questions and as usual we will try to answer them honestly and candidly. So, if we have a question, let’s start.

Operator

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your first question will come from the line of Robert Kelly, representing Sidoti & Company. Please proceed.

William Currie

Management

Good morning Robert. Robert Kelly - Sidoti & Company: Good morning, thanks for taking my question. First, off the sequential improvement in gross margins 1Q versus 4Q, can you quantify that?

William Currie

Management

You mean Q4 versus Q1? Robert Kelly - Sidoti & Company: Yes, 1Q gross margin was up versus 4Q despite the sales decline. What were the drivers there?

William Currie

Management

Sales mix is certainly a part of that. Continuous improvement, efforts have been a part of that and we have made changes in our cost structure and probably done a better job of aligning our cost structure in the first quarter versus volume. Those are probably the biggest two drivers. Robert Kelly - Sidoti & Company: Was there any benefit from the closures and idling that you did in 4Q? Did that start to show up?

William Currie

Management

Sure. Robert Kelly - Sidoti & Company: Okay good.

William Currie

Management

That’s the next part of that answer. Robert Kelly - Sidoti & Company: And then just secondly on the spring selling season, has that gotten off to a good start, maybe just and so on how you view the market entering April.

William Currie

Management

That was just for March or April? Robert Kelly - Sidoti & Company: Yeah, sequentially and maybe year-over-year.

William Currie

Management

Robert, it’s --

Michael Cole

CFO

A month late --

William Currie

Management

Yeah, like we have mentioned earlier. We typically see the start to the DIY business in late March. Usually what happens is the big boxes start loading up their distribution centers and their plants -- I mean their stores to get ready for the spring buys, but because we believe first of all, because the weather was so severe and because a lot of people are worried about the inventories, they didn’t take that position in early March but took it in early April. So things got pushed back a couple of weeks and weather kind of pushed things back but when the weather is good, we are seeing good sales results. The one area that –- I’ll come to that, we’ll tell you, is just not performing well as Florida. Robert Kelly - Sidoti & Company: Finally on the SG&A line, the decline year-over-year of about $5 million; what was the offset there? Was it just layoffs?

William Currie

Management

Our existing locations was just $3.5 million I believe. That was the salaries, wages, incentives were all down versus last year that is offset by severances was a big number and bad debt expense is up a little bit in several other small areas. Robert Kelly - Sidoti & Company - Analyst: Are the severances in all that just a Q1 issued? Does that kind of go away beginning 2Q?

Michael Cole

CFO

I wouldn’t expect a number like that in Q2 and forward. Robert Kelly - Sidoti & Company : Okay, great thanks guys.

William Currie

Management

Thanks Robert

Operator

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Tom Hayes representing Piper Jeffery. Please proceed.

Tom Hayes - Piper Jeffery

Analyst · Tom Hayes representing Piper Jeffery. Please proceed

Good morning gentlemen.

William Currie

Management

Hey, Tom.

Michael Cole

CFO

Tommy, how are you?

Tom Hayes - Piper Jeffery

Analyst · Tom Hayes representing Piper Jeffery. Please proceed

You had mentioned that you are looking for -- I guess it was kind of a continued difficulties in the site-built. I was just wondering if you could give maybe a little more detail on what you are seeing as far as what’s embedded in your forecast for that market as far as what the housing is going to do?

William Currie

Management

Tom, we think what everybody’s calling the housing starts for the year are pretty accurate. There’s ways around it. First of all we have right sized our businesses in every single area that we are in and secondly we have picked up substantial multi-family and light commercial business and we’ve really ramped-up our framing businesses. So, we are not near as afraid of the site-built segment going through the next two quarters, next three quarters as we were moving into the last two. It’s not going to be a great business for us, but we think we can make it on something that isn’t -- doesn’t ruin our year.

Tom Hayes - Piper Jeffery

Analyst · Tom Hayes representing Piper Jeffery. Please proceed

Okay great. I guess secondly because there is news everyday about some of the financial troubles of the builders. I was just wondering if you are seeing any of the flow through as far as any potential AR aging problems?

Michael Cole

CFO

It’s always a battle, to try to work on the DSO and keeping that percent current, our day sales outstanding and that percent current where you need it to be. So, it’s a constant battle and we continue to focus on it with a lot energy and from a write off standpoint thus far we haven’t had much, so, we’ve managed that area pretty well, but, an area we got to continue to focus on.

Tom Hayes - Piper Jeffery

Analyst · Tom Hayes representing Piper Jeffery. Please proceed

Okay great and then, I guess, lastly if you could just give a little color -- I mean you had mentioned that on color a restrained look into ’08 as far as the CapEx. Please give us some general guidance of what do you thought for your expectations uses for free cash flow would be?

Michael Cole

CFO

Look for CapEx, we certainly are going to be in that $20 million to $25 million range for our free cash flow. Right now, we are probably just continued to do debt reduction and stay cautious on our balance sheet and then keep our eye open for opportunities.

Tom Hayes - Piper Jeffery

Analyst · Tom Hayes representing Piper Jeffery. Please proceed

Great. Thank you.

Michael Cole

CFO

Thanks Tom.

Operator

Operator

The next question will come from the line of Keith Johnson, representing Morgan Keegan. Please proceed. Keith Johnson - Morgan Keegan & Company, Inc.: Good morning.

William Currie

Management

Good morning

William Currie

Management

Good morning Keith. Keith Johnson - Morgan, Keegan & Company, Inc.: I just got a list of the questions that I had are just a couple of quick ones here. You made a comment if I heard it correctly that your thought that the lumber price trends may start to improve in Q3, Q4. I heard that correctly in your opening?

William Currie

Management

Yes. Yes, you heard that correctly. Here is what we see happening. Keith Johnson - Morgan, Keegan & Company, Inc.: Okay.

William Currie

Management

Suppliers getting really is getting really slashed. Keith Johnson - Morgan, Keegan & Company, Inc.: Okay.

William Currie

Management

Almost every single major primary producer is closing mills, is reducing shifts, is reducing production. Most of the time, what happens in these kind of cycles, is everybody overdoes it a little bit. On the side of cautiousness they over do it and then, when there is a small increase in demand, it usually means of a pretty good price recovery. Keith Johnson - Morgan, Keegan & Company, Inc.: Okay.

William Currie

Management

And that is what we are seeing, that is what we watched over the years and over the sequential downturns in the market, and that is what we feel is going to happen in the third and fourth quarter this year. We like to think we’ll start to see some better pricing on the lumber side, because there has to be. These guys are burning -- these guys are burning money, these primary mills are burning money at the very high rate, so they have got a limit production and we see some recovery in that lumber business by the end of the year. Keith Johnson - Morgan, Keegan & Company, Inc.: Okay. Do you have a any figures on kind of year-over-year basis, how much lumber or estimate the lumber productions may cause so far, where we are?

William Currie

Management

We don’t have an estimate, but we are very close to most of the primary producers and we know how much they’ve got in its very substantial. Keith Johnson - Morgan, Keegan & Company, Inc. : Okay. On the manufactured housing side, the HUD-code homes maybe a slight increase coming through I think you said February?

William Currie

Management

Right. Keith Johnson - Morgan, Keegan & Company, Inc.: You think this is kind of a trend finally for this market that may, kind of keep going or just maybe one quarter aberration.

William Currie

Management

We are always seeing people going to more of affordable home, which should be the low end HUD homes. The modular business I think is directly tied to the single-family housing… Keith Johnson - Morgan, Keegan & Company, Inc. : Okay.

William Currie

Management

So, we anticipate that business kind of staying down for quite a while, which is a little disappointing, but, the HUD business -- if we get this financing package through here we anticipated pretty good picked up in HUD. Keith Johnson - Morgan, Keegan & Company, Inc. : Okay. Then, I guess just one last question. You talked a lot about weather impact in the March quarter. Is there a broad way to give, kind of a revenue quantification and that it may have shifted or potentially shifted into the second quarter?

William Currie

Management

Well, you know the best way we can answer to this, Bill mentioned that we were tracking really well in March and we thought that we’ve thought we’re going to pull out the quarter and then the last two weeks whether it was the weather or Easter or spring break, all those had an impact and what we saw our sales to the DIY business on the last two weeks -- two and a half weeks of March dropped by over $10 million a week. Keith Johnson - Morgan, Keegan & Company, Inc. : Okay. All right and when you say pullout the quarter, I mean are you saying that you had this -- had the weather situation like we did that we would have been back to breakeven or actually profitable in the first quarter?

William Currie

Management

We think that is, if the weather stayed good and the Easter had been in April like a trip traditionally as, we would have been breakeven or a small loss. Keith Johnson - Morgan, Keegan & Company, Inc. : Okay. All right, thanks a lot.

Operator

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Jay McCanless representing FTN Midwest. Please proceed.

William Currie

Management

Good morning Jay.

Michael Cole

CFO

Hi Jay.

Jay McCanless - FTN Midwest

Analyst

Good morning, good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I guess four of them for you; first one, with the pick up we saw in this quarter in industrial and also in the concrete forming, which you talked about. It seems to indicate that you also believe the commercial and multi-family should do well, how sustainable do you think that is and what kind of timeframe, would you give around that?

William Currie

Management

Well the multi-family, I think is going to stay pretty strong for a while. We got to have a place for people live and then right now you can’t get into the hound, so we have seen a lot of multi-family come up. We think it’s certainly good well into 2009. The industrial business and concrete forming business -- it just seems like every month we are finding new business and I don’t know it is a -- the business we are finding use to be in the neighborhood of $10,000 accounts, now we are finding a million and multi-million dollar accounts. The spread is incredible across the country.

Jay McCanless - FTN Midwest

Analyst

Great and then, you have talked a little bit about in your prepared comments about potentially competitors falling out in the field is -- are you seeing a trend of that in that an accelerating trend, can you give any color on that?

William Currie

Management

Well, we can without talking specifically about any of them that are some of them who are closing 20 and 30 operations, 40 operations at a time. A lot of them have left the state of Florida. We wouldn’t be surprised if one or two of them are here when we have this conversation a couple of quarters from now.

Jay McCanless - FTN Midwest

Analyst

Okay and then on the DIY business, what -- if you look at the invoices you were writing to them last year versus what’s you are writing and them this year, have you seen a change in either the number of items that they are ordering or in terms of the price points that they are going to -- just trying to get a feel for how the DIY companies are going to be buying product from you all and also as stocking their own shells for the spring season?

William Currie

Management

Well, we typically deliver to the DIY. Our trucks could have anywhere from three to 15 items on the truck different skews. So, as far as we are concerned in, the more different items they put on the truck, the better is for us. They want to turn their inventory more and our yards is set up with the -- to be able to handle that. The answer you -- to further answer to your question, we are seeing more skews on the trucks, so they can get better returns.

Jay McCanless - FTN Midwest

Analyst

Okay, great and then my last question what’s the actual facility count this year, I guess, is at the end of the first quarter versus the same facility count last year or a facility count, the same quarter last year?

William Currie

Management

We have 14 less plants.

Jay McCanless - FTN Midwest

Analyst

Okay, great. Thanks guys, great quarter.

William Currie

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your next question will come from the line of Steve Chercover representing D. A. Davidson. Please proceed. Steven Chercover - D. A. Davidson & Co: Hi, Steve.

William Currie

Management

Hi, you’re up early out there. Steven Chercover – D.A. Davidson & Co. : We’re always up early; it’s our cross to bear in Oregon. First question please, it’s good to hear that the things were chugging along in early March too bad it fell off. So, now we’re half way through April, did it pickup as soon as the weather got better?

William Currie

Management

We probably aren’t supposed to talk about that, but we are liking what we’re seeing. Steven Chercover – D.A. Davidson & Co. : So you are back in that pace of early March?

William Currie

Management

We love the sun. Steven Chercover – D.A. Davidson & Co. : Okay, we all do that. Now, switching gears, your projections for the full-year, did they discount the incremental weakness we have see in housing starts and permits that we saw yesterday for instance.

William Currie

Management

I’m not sure I’m following Steve. Steven Chercover – D.A. Davidson & Co. : Well, housing starts and permits continue to trend down, and I just want to ensure that the guidance that you given us so far, discounts had starts below 1 million for instance.

William Currie

Management

Yeah, I think Steve that the thing that is more the surprise was kind of the weather and the impact of the DIY market and the housing market at this point. Steven Chercover – D.A. Davidson & Co.: Okay. Thanks Mike.

William Currie

Management

And we expected and have adjusted accordingly I guess for housing and for manufactured housing, being what they are, so a kind of the fall off in the second half of March is the thing that was more to surprise and right now we are optimistic we can get a lot of that back and also with respect to the targets something we haven’t talked about is that acquisition with International Wood Industries is very seasonal and so we really haven’t seen any of the sale impact and profit impact of that for that transaction and they really start having a lot of sales and profit beginning in May. Steven Chercover – D.A. Davidson & Co. : That’s good. Okay, final question it makes a lot of sense to balance your business more to multi-family and some like commercial, but, is there any risk with the chase associated with chasing light commercial, particularly if it falls off next?

William Currie

Management

I am sorry Steve we had something happened here, we didn’t quite catch that question would you mind asking that one again? Steven Chercover – D.A. Davidson & Co.: Sure, just is there any risk associated with chasing some of the light commercial business if it’s the next shoe to drop in terms of overall construction in the U.S.

William Currie

Management

Steve it’s all about balance, okay. It’s about balance. What we’re trying to do is take our site-built business plan and allow for a certain percentage, not 100% of any segment. A certain percentage to multi-family which the small amount of market share that we have, we ought to be able to maintain our percentage of multi-family. A percentage of light commercial, a percentage of custom builders, a percentage of regional builders and a percentage of national production builders and we feel if we can keep that modeled in place, that we can right size the plans to manage the business that’s available in the various regions where we operate. Steven Chercover – D.A. Davidson & Co. : Okay so chasing that business is really not very costly, but it does give you much kind of better platform for future cycle is that the way it looks like?

William Currie

Management

Exactly right. Steven Chercover – D.A. Davidson & Co.: Great, well thanks so much.

William Currie

Management

Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Your final question will come from the line of David Liebowitz representing Burnham Securities. Please proceed.

William Currie

Management

Hi, David. David Liebowitz – Burnham Securities: Hi, good morning. A couple of brief items and I was late to the call. I apologize if you address it in your formal remarks. First given the terrible state of housing, which you projected going to continue into ’09, do you believe the five year guidance you had given us or the five year game plan that you have pronounced a year or so ago, is still a viable set of challenges or is that beyond reach?

William Currie

Management

I think, what we’ve said was, we were going to -- we are going to evaluate that mid year and come out and give guidance after that. David Liebowitz – Burnham Securities: Okay. I apologize again for being late on that. My second question, in terms of the Florida market that you just alluded to and others like it, are you going to be acquiring some of the companies that are going to fall by the wayside or you going to be able to expand on your own, and pickup their share of market without having to make acquisitions?

William Currie

Management

Yeah, we are not going to any expansion in Florida. We have a -- we made the big acquisition down to Miami, and we have a nice presence with our site-built operations. We have marked bold a couple of them, so if we need to gear those two back up, we can but we are not going pick up any of the other flocks. David Liebowitz – Burnham Securities: Okay and there was an item in the paper the other day that they’re predicting -- the same guys have told this for the last five years, there are going to be a lot of hurricanes, they are back to it again this year. Were they in fact to be right, would a big hurricane season be helpful to your business because of all the repair?

William Currie

Management

We have a hurricane -- what do you call it Mike? We have a hurricane, special inventory that we keep prepared for some of our big customers down there and some of our Caribbean customers to make sure that we are prepared with the proper products in the event there is a heavy hurricane season. David Liebowitz – Burnham Securities: Okay and the last question. What is your biggest concern at the moment looking over the next three or fourth quarters?

William Currie

Management

Yeah, I would say probably consumer spending. David Liebowitz – Burnham Securities: Thank you very much.

Operator

Operator

We have another question from the line of Jason Loeb representing Lord Abbett. Please proceed.

William Currie

Management

Good morning Jason.

Michael Cole

CFO

Hi, Jason.

Jason Loeb - Lord Abbett

Analyst · Jason Loeb representing Lord Abbett. Please proceed

William Currie

Management

The big scare is of course in the home building business and remember that there are opportunities; there are lean rights on any kind of a residential or commercial site-built property and we have an entire team that is very active in making sure that we don’t have any large credit losses. I think I’ll just leave it to that. If you take a look at our 40 year history on receivables and how well we manage our collections it’s a major focus for us and we measure customers on how fast they pay, not on how much they buy, we always have and we are very, very diligent in that area.

Jason Loeb - Lord Abbett

Analyst · Jason Loeb representing Lord Abbett. Please proceed

Great. Thanks guys.

Operator

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the call back to Mr. Bill Currie for closing remarks.

William Currie

Management

Okay guys, thanks again for being part of our call, and for the great questions and for the support. We are going to get back to block it and tackling and making sure that we can come out with some good results for you. So, I wish you all a very good year and I hope that we have the same. Thank you.