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Unilever PLC (UL)

Q2 2016 Earnings Call· Thu, Jul 21, 2016

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

We are about to hand over to Unilever to begin the conference call. [Operator Instruction] We will now hand over to Andrew Stephen.

Andrew Stephen - Head-Investor Relations, Unilever NV

Management

Good morning and welcome to Unilever's half year results which will be presented in the usual way by Paul and Graeme. Paul will give the headlines of the first half performance and talk about how we're building agility and resilience into our business in a volatile and challenging environment. Graeme will cover the results in a bit more detail and Paul will wrap up. And we'll leave plenty of time for Q&A. As usual, I draw your attention to the disclaimer relating to forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures. With that, I'll hand over to Paul. Paul Polman - Chief Executive Officer & Executive Director: Well, thank you, Andrew and good morning, everybody, or good afternoon. As you have seen, the first half results again demonstrate the progress we're making in transforming Unilever into a more resilient company and a more agile company able to generate the competitive and profitable growth that we aspire to and deliver this in a consistent and responsible way. Undoubtedly, reading the newspapers, you would agree with me that this is a challenging trading environment that frankly is not getting easier. Within that context, providing a consistent growth and in this case, again, a top line growth of 4.7% is well within our guidance of 3% to 5% top line growth. It is also competitive with all our four categories growing ahead of their markets and building overall market share as a company. It is also profitable with our core operating margins up by a whopping 50 basis points to 15%, including the 80 basis points improvement in gross margin that we have flagged to you before. And last but not least, it is responsible growth. In fact, our Sustainable Living Plan brands, which now represent more than a third of our turnover, grew a full…

Andrew Stephen - Head-Investor Relations, Unilever NV

Operator

Thank you, Paul. [Operator Instruction] And I see the first question is from Celine Pannuti from JPMorgan. Celine, please go ahead.

Celine Pannuti - JPMorgan Securities Plc

Analyst

Yes. Good morning, gentlemen. My first question is on pricing. It seems that there was less price deflation in Europe and you mentioned as well a pickup in Asia, so what is the outlook you see in these two regions because I would presume that we will start to see a fading of pricing that was implemented in Latin America in H2 last year. And if you feel comfortable with around 2% pricing for the year, I think that you had alluded to that in the previous calls. My second question regards to your commentaries on the savings initiative. How large is your – having done all the groundwork over the first half, what is your comfort level of when you say at least €1 billion around or above that number? And also, the step-up in restructuring charge, is there a way you can quantify that step-up? And as well how long that step-up will last? Because I would presume that would probably be kind of a one-off step-up for the coming – I don't know – half, but then I probably say that we should come back to a normalized level. Thank you. Paul Polman - Chief Executive Officer & Executive Director: Yeah. Thanks, Celine. I will ask Graeme to give you a little bit more granularity on the savings because, obviously, he is the key engine of helping us deliver that with the intensity that we have become accustomed to from Graeme, so absolutely key. On the pricing, as you've seen, I'm just looking at the numbers, they've actually picked up a little bit from 2% in quarter one to 2.8% in quarter two. But, frankly, I wouldn't really be that granular on a quarter-to-quarter basis. We think what we will see is a slightly less deflation in…

Andrew Stephen - Head-Investor Relations, Unilever NV

Operator

The next question is from...

Celine Pannuti - JPMorgan Securities Plc

Analyst

Thank you.

Andrew Stephen - Head-Investor Relations, Unilever NV

Operator

Thanks, Celine. And the next question is from Eileen Khoo from Morgan Stanley. Eileen Khoo - Morgan Stanley & Co. International Plc: Good morning, gentlemen. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit more about your ambitions medium-term for the Dollar Shave Club. You talked just now, Paul, about increasing scale. Would you therefore consider acquiring more assets including manufacturing facilities in the shave category in due course or are you thinking more about using this business as a platform to push growth in other categories? What do you think is the risk of pressure to the profit pool given that one of the attractions for consumers of this business is the low pricing? Paul Polman - Chief Executive Officer & Executive Director: Yeah. Thank you, Eileen. And obviously, I had guessed with Graeme that the question would come on the Dollar Shave Club, so I won my bet for some reason. Yeah. But let me just state again very clearly, the male grooming market, and you have to see this first and foremost on male grooming, when you make an acquisition like this, you have to say is this is a segment you want to be in and the segment is male grooming. That's a $40 billion segment and growing quite nicely. We have twice our share there than our competitor, direct competitor, if you take shaving out of it. So, we are very well placed and it is more than a shaving model itself. So, we feel very good. The second reason that we like this is because the fast emergence of these subscription models. Big companies like us, like we've seen also with our competitors, have a hard time establishing those things because of the culture, the knowledge is just simply not there, not a…

Andrew Stephen - Head-Investor Relations, Unilever NV

Operator

Thanks. Eileen Khoo - Morgan Stanley & Co. International Plc: Thank you. Paul Polman - Chief Executive Officer & Executive Director: Yeah. Thanks, Eileen.

Andrew Stephen - Head-Investor Relations, Unilever NV

Operator

Thanks. And the next question is from Alain Oberhuber of MainFirst.

Alain-Sebastian Oberhuber - MainFirst Schweiz AG

Analyst

Yeah. Good morning, gentlemen. A question regarding emerging market, more specific, Latin America. You mentioned, Paul, that things are getting worse before they get better. But do we see already a bottoming-out in some of these small countries or should we expect a difficult H2 as well as difficult H1 next year? Paul Polman - Chief Executive Officer & Executive Director: Well, Alain, first of all, we'll stop and also thanks for issuing your report. I have to compliment you. You're always the first one to issue. And you have your three questions in there and this is probably one of the three questions. So, I appreciate the efficiency, the swift efficiency, with which your work. We definitely see in the second half a worse trading environment in Latin America than the first half. We want to be unequivocally clear about that. Brazil is in recession. I'm actually going there in a few weeks' time, but it has a high devaluation of its currency and incredible drop off of consumer demand. The market is negative and it's more negative than people think unfortunately. Now, we have a very big business. We continue to drive our innovations there. Baby Dove, our ancillaries of Omo are great example, but also what we're doing on Sunsilk or on deodorant. So, we are actually growing in Brazil. But it requires disproportionate effort from our organization and the trading environment is actually getting worse. We see pressure on some of the retailers, financial pressure and other things. So, we have to be very careful. Argentina, I was there two months ago and had extensive discussions with Macri, the new President and many others there. And here again, we've seen a significant sub devaluation of the peso. We are obviously having more currency, but it's at…

Alain-Sebastian Oberhuber - MainFirst Schweiz AG

Analyst

Thank you very much. Paul Polman - Chief Executive Officer & Executive Director: Yeah. Thank you, Alain.

Andrew Stephen - Head-Investor Relations, Unilever NV

Operator

Next question comes from James Targett of Berenberg. James B. Targett - Joh. Berenberg, Gossler & Co. KG (United Kingdom): Good morning, gentlemen. Two questions for me. Just firstly on North America, you had a sort of pickup in sales growth in the second quarter. I was just wondering if you could talk – give some color on the sell-in versus sell-out there because I know you were talking some destocking over the last couple of quarters. I wonder if that situation has improved. And then, secondly, just on the margin. Graeme, maybe if you could give some color on the impact of the pensions you mentioned on the overhead cost and also the Food and Europe margins? Thank you. Paul Polman - Chief Executive Officer & Executive Director: Yeah, I don't want to go into destocking because, frankly, it's hard to read and when the numbers are poor, we say destocking. When it's better we say we have a great business and initiatives. I'm sorry. I'm personally not very keen to go into that discussion. The reality is that the economy is growing and the market is growing in the 1% to 2% range. We are currently putting in a performance of 0.7% over the first half. So, we are slightly disappointed by that. I don't want to call it differently. We are still in the transformation of the U.S. We have to completely recapitalize our industrial base. And what we see is some very strong things emerging in the areas that we focus on. Ice cream, we are now outright market leader. We have very good strategy. It's out of home, impulse there, as well now in line with the global strategy and it's starting to payoff. We also launched the deodorant sprays, the dry sprays, which are…

Andrew Stephen - Head-Investor Relations, Unilever NV

Operator

We could have the next question which is from Warren Ackerman from Société Générale. Warren Ackerman - Société Générale SA (Broker): Good morning, Paul. Good morning, Graeme. Its Warren here with SocGen. Also, two questions. First one is can I go back to market growth? At the Q1 stage, you said I think, Paul, no category growth in either developed or emerging markets. And today, you're saying that market volumes have slowed further in the quarter. So, should I take it then the aggregate category volume growth is now negative? And then, specifically, can you talk about what you're seeing in Personal Care sub-segments in Europe and North America? And then, secondly, just back on the question on spreads. Paul, you said that North America is getting a bit better, which is encouraging, but Europe is still challenging. I was wondering whether you can kind of quantify the decline rates and how you're disappointed that the initiatives in Europe are not making much impact. And I think, Paul, you said that this is the year of reckoning for the business. We're at the midpoint of the year. Just interested to hear what your overall assessment of the progress in spreads is. Thanks. Paul Polman - Chief Executive Officer & Executive Director: Thanks, Warren. Appreciate that. And so in terms of the market growth, we talked about the softening that we've seen in the different parts of the world, especially Latin America. In Europe, if you want to go bigger than market, you have to go a little bit more granular. And we measure the markets that we are in, by the way, the other markets that might do differently. But if you take Europe, the market decline now is close to 2%. And that's driven broad-based by price deflation, and…

Andrew Stephen - Head-Investor Relations, Unilever NV

Operator

Thanks. We'll have the next question from Jonathan Feeney of Consumer Edge, please.

Jonathan Feeney - Consumer Edge Research LLC

Analyst

Thanks very much. Paul, you mentioned the growth in China e-commerce, and I guess it's fascinating what's going on in that market. It's almost as if the Chinese consumer maybe is skipping a step in the evolution, at least in the way we think about purchasing goes on in Western developed markets. Can you talk about how your approach is different to managing that e-commerce growth and maybe transition in some of those markets than some of your competitors? And secondly, when you look at the Dollar Shave Club purchase, is there any thought that maybe you're getting ahead of some of those changes maybe that are happening in – to the Chinese consumer, maybe happening over the next five years to 10 years in other markets, emerging and developed? Thank you. Paul Polman - Chief Executive Officer & Executive Director: Yeah, Jonathan, that's a very good question and it's very much on our minds as well. And I wish I could give you the – obviously, the right answer, because it's moving so fast that, first of all, we spent a disproportionate amount of time on educating ourselves. And it's frightening the speed at which this is changing, just like they leapfrogged the landline and moved to mobile phone. You now see the millennials – and it's interesting if you go to China one day, just let them show you all the things they can do on WeChat, and it's – you take Amazon and YouTube and Twitter and Google all together in one app and PayPal and whatever; it's incredibly frightening. None of the millennials go to a store anymore. So, the speed with which this is changing is mind-boggling, and I think not many people predicted it. So, the first thing you have to do as a…

Jonathan Feeney - Consumer Edge Research LLC

Analyst

Very much. Thank you. Paul Polman - Chief Executive Officer & Executive Director: Thank you.

Andrew Stephen - Head-Investor Relations, Unilever NV

Operator

There are just two more questions on the line. And first is from Charles Pick of Numis.

Charles J. Pick - Numis Securities Ltd.

Analyst

Good morning, gentlemen. Thanks so much. Just two questions, please. At the group level, I think you said exiting Q1 you were growing almost 60% in terms of market share growth for the group's various operations. Wonder if you can update that percentage, please? It sounds like it's probably increased a bit. And at the Q1 stage, you were indicating that the FX debit was about 50% via the Brazilian real and the Argentinean peso. Was this a similar percentage, please, for Q2? Paul Polman - Chief Executive Officer & Executive Director: Yeah. Charles, the first one, I can say, it's about the same. It's not up or down. So, it's about the same. We have about 50% of our business building share and overall building share. Graeme David Pitkethly - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Director: On the foreign exchange, Charles, you're pretty much spot on, about 50% in Brazil and Argentina. The biggest impacts are Brazil, Argentina, South Africa and India and all-in they sum to about 4.5% of the 7.6% that we saw in the top line.

Charles J. Pick - Numis Securities Ltd.

Analyst

Good. Okay. Thank you very much. Graeme David Pitkethly - Chief Financial Officer & Executive Director: Thank you. Paul Polman - Chief Executive Officer & Executive Director: Thanks, Charles

Andrew Stephen - Head-Investor Relations, Unilever NV

Operator

Thanks, Charles. Final question is from Alex Smith of Investec.

Alex P. Smith - Investec Bank Plc

Analyst

Hello. Hi. Good morning. Charles actually stole my question on market share, but I was wondering if you could say a little bit on that 60% number. How that might vary across geographies and categories just to give us a rough idea where you are, I guess, relatively outperforming and relatively underperforming. And then maybe just a follow-up on India, it's clearly a big market for you. I guess the market growth rate there has continued to slow down. And I think you pointed to it being rural led weather impact. I guess you got some commodity deflation there as well. But I was just wondering are you seeing some unhelpful competitor behavior in your categories? I guess I'm just surprised that the category growth rate continues to track below GDP growth rates and, I guess, some other categories – FMCG categories are doing a little bit better at the moment. Thanks. Paul Polman - Chief Executive Officer & Executive Director: Yeah. Let me go first to the market shares once more in a little bit more granularity. If you look at the overall market share, it's mainly driven by the emerging markets. The developed markets are about flat in market share; both the U.S. and Europe are about flat. And I'm sure I would see that as the bigger picture. We are obviously gaining share in more businesses than we're losing. The main drivers of that is Personal Care outgrowing the market, so that is a key thing. If you want to go even more granularly its deos again, where we are doing well, its hair, but actually also skin cleansing is back. It was a category that was on the edge of that is now positive, so we feel good about that. Home Care, we continued to drive…

Alex P. Smith - Investec Bank Plc

Analyst

No. Good. Thanks. Paul Polman - Chief Executive Officer & Executive Director: Thanks.

Andrew Stephen - Head-Investor Relations, Unilever NV

Operator

Thanks. Paul Polman - Chief Executive Officer & Executive Director: So, let me just thank you, guys, because I think we're coming to the end of it. So, I just wanted to wrap up. The first thing I want to do is thank you again for your interest. I know that it's really appreciated by us and your questions also help us. I also like to thank you for your support. I hope you will have some time-off for the holidays with your dear ones and recharge the batteries. We have a very full agenda. I think the change agenda happening right now in Unilever is bigger than I can imagine. It has been for a long time over the last few decades, implementing the Connect 4 Growth, at the same time, Net Revenue Management, Zero-Based Budgeting keeps us incredibly busy, but we will not drop the ball. And it is absolutely needed to be able to continue to give you this 4G performance in an increasingly challenging environment. There's no any doubt in my opinion in my modest 35 years or so in the consumer goods industry, which I'm sure you will beat that collectively, is one of the toughest environments that we're operating in. Despite that I think we can continue to promise you that we will be at the 3% to 5% range with a little bit lower top line growth over the second half. And we will continue to be in the 20% to 40% range on our core operating margins. So, where consensus is right now, we are fine. If you run too far ahead of yourselves, and you think that we could do better on core operating margin, we actually don't disagree with you. So, don't get excited, but we will have to use that money to invest in restructuring, to accelerate the implementation on the Connect 4 Growth program. So, long-term is our mantra and long-term it will be, and despite again once more the challenging environment, we will make this another year of delivery. Thanks. Enjoy the summer holidays and hopefully talk to you soon. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

This conference has been recorded. Details of the replay can be found on Unilever's website and will be available shortly. Thank you.