Earnings Labs

United Natural Foods, Inc. (UNFI)

Q4 2012 Earnings Call· Tue, Sep 11, 2012

$48.48

+0.87%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

+5.22%

1 Week

+7.99%

1 Month

+3.50%

vs S&P

+3.89%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the United Natural Foods Fiscal 2012 Fourth Quarter Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] This conference is being recorded today, Tuesday, September 11, 2012. I would now like to turn the conference over to Scott Eckstein from Financial Relations Board. Please go ahead, sir.

Scott Eckstein

Analyst

Thank you, operator, and good morning, everyone. By now, you should have all received a copy of this morning's press release. If anyone still needs a copy, please contact Joe Calabrese in our New York office at (212) 827-3772, and we'll send you a copy immediately following this morning's conference call. With us this morning from management is Steve Spinner, President and Chief Executive Officer; Mark Shamber, Chief Financial Officer; and Sean Griffin, Group President. We will begin this morning with opening comments from management, and then we will open the line for questions. As a reminder, this call is also being webcast today and can be accessed over the Internet at www.unfi.com. Before we begin, as usual, we would like to remind everyone about the cautionary language regarding forward-looking statements contained in the press release. That same language applies to comments made on this morning's conference call. Additionally, in today's press release and on today's call, we provide both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures, including operating expenses, operating income, net income and earnings per diluted share. The presentation of these non-GAAP financial measures is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for any measure prepared in accordance with GAAP. For a complete reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures, please refer to our earnings release issued earlier today available on our corporate website, www.unfi.com under Investors. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Steve Spinner. Steve, please go ahead.

Steven Spinner

Analyst

Thanks, Scott. Good morning, and welcome again to UNFI's Fourth Quarter and Full Year Fiscal 2012 Conference Call. Our industry is growing, demand for the natural organic and specialty products are accelerating, and UNFI's performance during fiscal 2012 was strong. Sales for the year grew almost 16% to a company record $5.24 billion, while operating income grew by almost 20%. For fiscal 2012, UNFI's operating margin grew 10 basis points to 3.1%, and our diluted earnings per share grew 15.5% to $1.94 on a higher share count. And for the quarter, sales also grew by 16%, and diluted earnings per share grew 19% to $0.51, excluding the restructuring and impairment charges in the fourth quarter of 2011. Since 2010, UNFI sales have grown over $1.4 billion or 40%. Our strategies are working and our business continues to outpace the growth of the industry as UNFI continues to expand its customer base and its product offering. And our teams executed extremely well against our targets for growth during the quarter and for the year, and several of our divisions performed extremely well. Net sales from Canada's -- UNFI Canada's broad line distribution grew 18% for the year, including the benefit from the first of several strategic acquisitions that I'll talk about shortly. Albert's Organics grew net sales by 16% by distributing fast-growing organic produce and all-natural protein. And on the UNFI brand side, our Field Day brand, available only to our independent retailers, grew over 80%. We remain focused on our core strategies. Enhancing our market share is our lifeblood. We accomplish this through new customer wins, through product extensions with existing customers, and integrating geographic and product-specific acquisitions, and as a result of this strategy, UNFI sales grew almost 16% for the year, far outpacing the growth of the industry.…

Mark Shamber

Analyst

Thanks, Steve. Good morning, everyone. Net sales for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2012 were $1.34 billion, which represents growth of 16% or approximately $185 million over the prior year's fourth quarter net sales of $1.16 billion. As Steve mentioned, inflation declined significantly sequentially as inflation was 3.01% for the fourth quarter compared to 4.43% in the third quarter, a decline of 142 basis points. On a year-over-year basis, inflation was up 80 basis points. For fiscal 2012, net sales totaled $5.24 billion, yielding sales growth of $706 million or 15.6% over the prior year. Excluding acquisitions, fiscal 2012 growth was 14.9%. For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2012, the company reported net income of $25.1 million or $0.51 per diluted share, an increase of approximately 46.4% or $8 million over the prior year. As a reminder, the prior year's fourth quarter included restructuring expenses associated with the disposal of our non-foods business and the write-down of our Harrison, Arkansas facility totaling $6.3 million or $3.7 million net of taxes. After adjusting for the prior-year restructuring and asset impairment costs in the fourth quarter, net income increased by $4.2 million, a 21% -- 20.1% over prior-year net income of $20.9 million or $0.43 per diluted share. Our sales by channel remained strong across all of our primary channels in Q4. Sales to the supernatural channel increased by 17.5% over the prior-year's fourth quarter and represented 36% of sales for the quarter. Independent sales rose by 9.5% year-over-year, and independents also represent approximately 36% of sales. Our supermarket channel experienced growth of 24.6%, and now represents approximately 23% of sales, and food service grew by 23.6% over the prior year and continues to represent approximately 3% of sales. For fiscal 2012, supernaturals represent 36% of sales, independents represent 35% of sales,…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from the line of Scott Mushkin with Jefferies & Company.

Scott Mushkin

Analyst

So I guess the first question was where you ended, Mark. Why the GAAP guidance versus kind of GAAP and then non-GAAP with charges? Are you guys just trying to direct everyone towards GAAP at this stage?

Mark Shamber

Analyst

Yes. I mean the issue, Scott, is that for those that have followed the company for a number of years, we used to call out the startup expenses for new facilities, whether they were duplicate costs and/or relocation costs. And we actually got a comment letter on that topic about 3 or 4 years ago from the SEC. And the argument, as they relate to sort of the nonrecurring costs, are that if you have them in more than every 2 years, they shouldn't be viewed as nonrecurring, and while we don't open a new facility or the same facility, we don't have an issue every 2 years. We do tend to open facilities less than 2 years apart. So as part of that comment letter, we've stopped referring to them from a non-GAAP standpoint because that was the direction we got from the SEC. So we call it out, we list the information from an investor standpoint because we think it is important. They're not ongoing operating expenses, but from the SEC's standpoint, they felt that those should not be viewed as nonrecurring.

Scott Mushkin

Analyst

And the follow-up to that, the $5 million to $5.5 million seemed pretty large. Is this a -- if you were going to kind of think over the next few years, is this on the larger side of what we should expect as one-time recurring charges?

Mark Shamber

Analyst

Scott, this one's a little bit unique. We're actually merging 3 existing buildings into a singular building, so a lot of it is move costs associated with actually combining those 3 separate centers into 1.

Steven Spinner

Analyst

Yes. And the way it works, Scott, is in this particular case, we're building from the ground up in this location, but because we're overseeing the construction, we have to start incurring rent expense immediately even though, as we sit here today, we haven't even -- we only broke ground in -- the actual official groundbreaking is tomorrow. So we're already taking rent expense from straight lining rents even though there's not even a frame of a building up yet. So it's just an instance of how the accounting rules sometimes come into play where we've got to take rents expense starting now even though we won't occupy the building for 9 to 10 months.

Scott Mushkin

Analyst

I think your friends in Austin are very well aware of those accounting rules.

Mark Shamber

Analyst

Yes, they impact many of us.

Scott Mushkin

Analyst

Okay. So second line of questioning. I mean, if I was going to look at gross margin, I think you guys said there's some one-time stuff. I don't know if you want to give us some highlights there. But it does look like that maybe there was some one-time stuff in SG&A to offset that, I mean, there's a pretty large reduction in the fourth quarter in SG&A expenses. So I was wondering if you could give us some color with just the big movements around gross margins and SG&A in the fourth quarter, how much is one-time, how much were you just stretching to make a quarter, as someone called and told me or asked me, is that what happened here? Maybe you could respond to that and then I'll yield.

Mark Shamber

Analyst

Yes, I mean, I'll answer the portion about the expenses and I'll let Steve or Sean cover sort of the margin side of it. I think people forget some of the challenges that we had in fiscal '11 and how the year played out. So the reality is, is that fiscal 2011's fourth quarter expenses were higher from a run rate standpoint than where they really would've been. Just to revisit, the first quarter of fiscal 2011, we opened up the Lancaster facility. We had some challenges there, and we talked about the fact that in the first half of fiscal 2011, we were accruing below run rate from an incentive comp standpoint because we were behind our own plan. In the back half of fiscal '11, we actually had much stronger results. And as a result of that, the expenses from an operating standpoint were not necessarily higher, but we did have to accrue for the bonuses and the incentives that were associated with that. So the back half of fiscal 2011, in both the third quarter and the fourth quarter, had a much higher level of incentive comp than they had this year. If anything, we didn't -- we had some extra charges that -- not extra but some items that hit us in the fourth quarter associated with redoing the credit facility where we took write-offs of $600,000 in the quarter versus any scenario where we were stretching to make the quarter. I mean, from our standpoint, had we executed a little bit better and not done a couple of things, we may have been at the high end of our range from an earnings standpoint.

Steven Spinner

Analyst

And then on the gross margin, we still have a lot of noise around a lot of the lower margin business that's been onboarded during the last, let's call it 18 months, that is still being flushed through the system that's negatively impacting our gross margin. During the quarter, we actually implemented a new transportation management system that I referenced in the commentary which is a critically important tool for us to more effectively manage the costs of our inbound freight and the way it gets flushed through gross margin. And whenever you install a new system, it takes a little while to train up the associates to use it as it was intended, and so we had a little bit of that noise going on as well. Sean, any other commentary on TMS?

Sean Griffin

Analyst

Well, I think, again, Steve, as you outlined in your initial comments, UNFI manages over 50% of our inbound freight. So when we're experiencing a learning curve, that creates some short-term pressure and we did experience that. I feel confident that our teams have covered that and flattened that curve, and that the system is working as it's intended today, and as we look forward, we'll get -- pick up the efficiencies that we had designed in the model.

Scott Mushkin

Analyst

Great. Do you guys want to quantify any of that for us?

Mark Shamber

Analyst

It's -- not really, because it's a very hard number to get our arms around and we certainly wouldn't want to be held to that.

Steven Spinner

Analyst

Yes, it's a little bit subjective, Scott as to when there are issues on backhauling as to whether they've occurred even without the system. And that's where -- we wanted to speak to it in generality that it was a big element for the quarter but not necessarily put a hard number on it where it might be a little more subjective as to the actual number, but a range we felt we were comfortable that it might have been 1/3 to 40% of the impact in the quarter.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Meredith Adler with Barclays Capital.

Meredith Adler

Analyst

I'd like to go back and talk a little bit about distribution. It sounds like you're going to have a lot of projects underway in coming years. I don't know how soon you're planning to start on the 3 facilities you mentioned. Are we likely to see costs in 2013 associated with that -- those facilities?

Steven Spinner

Analyst

Well, we're looking at Denver in this fiscal year. We're looking at another facility in fiscal year '14 and another facility in fiscal year '15. So there will be a little bit of costs associated with those moves in each one of those years. On the comment earlier, Meredith, this building in Denver is a little bit unique just because of the magnitude of the move because we have 3 buildings merging into 1. The other ones won't necessarily be a move, a wholesale move, but more a folding out of business from part of one DC to a new one. So there will be some costs, I'm not sure that they'll be to the level of the costs associated with Denver.

Meredith Adler

Analyst

Okay. I guess that makes sense. Could you talk a little bit about the capital cost for Denver and how you think those other facilities will compare? And then maybe talk about the free cash flow that you've guided to for 2013. I assume that's net of the CapEx cost of that?

Mark Shamber

Analyst

Yes, free cash is net. And I'm sorry, your first question?

Meredith Adler

Analyst

What is the cost for the facility and the others you're planning?

Mark Shamber

Analyst

Well, I mean, I think it -- there's not an easy answer. I mean, it depends on the size of the facility and it depends on whether we lease versus own it and the decision varies by market. In the case of the Denver facility, the portion of the construction that ends up being on our books under the current accounting rules is probably in the range of $15 million to $20 million of which, probably 75% of that is construction and the other 25% of that is racking and equipment that goes into the building. But we've talked in the past that when we put on, say, a 400,000-square-foot building and we've owned it, the cost could be in the $30 million to $40 million range.

Steven Spinner

Analyst

Yes. Just as a point of clarification, while we're putting about $15 million into the Denver facility, the total cost of construction is probably in the $50 million range. So this is a leased building. It's $50 million building, so this is a leased building with UNFI contributing about $15 million of the improvement.

Meredith Adler

Analyst

Got it, okay. And then I have to say that I ended up still being somewhat confused about expenses and gross margin. It sounds like, I don't know. What would you describe as being a permanent change, something that's fundamental to the way the business is running within what we saw in the fourth quarter in the gross margin and the SG&A?

Steven Spinner

Analyst

Well, I mean, I think generally speaking, what we would like to see happen over the next year or 2 years is a stabilizing effect in the gross margin, and we will not have the same kind of expense leverage that we've had over the last 12 months because we took a lot of expenses out of running our warehouses. And I think that, that's going to happen directionally, primarily because we've onboarded the majority of the conventional lower-margin business, we lapped that, the latest chunk I think, in...

Mark Shamber

Analyst

Beginning of October.

Steven Spinner

Analyst

Beginning of October. So that should give us the ability to see some stabilizing in the gross margin. And I think as a result of that as well, we'll see a much lower degree of expense savings. But I think that our objective is to continue to make sure that the costs reduce at a rate that's greater than any further reduction in the gross margin. And I think, as far as the SG&A, I think the bulk of the SG&A in comparing year-over-year was related to incentive comp '11 to '12.

Meredith Adler

Analyst

Okay. And you're confident now that given everything you've been doing and are going to be doing, that you will be able to achieve sort of a matching of gross margin decline and expense decline?

Steven Spinner

Analyst

I mean, that's the hope. We certainly had a great deal of success in 2012. We had some success to a lesser degree in 2011. All of the data points to, we've lapped all the new conventional business that's come onboard. We're seeing some growth in the independent channel that we haven't seen before. So without being able to look into the crystal ball, I would say that, that's the direction that we're moving.

Meredith Adler

Analyst

And I'm sorry, I'll just be selfish and ask one more question. That does seem to imply that you are not anticipating bringing on any more large conventional customers or even small conventional customers.

Steven Spinner

Analyst

Well, I mean, we didn't -- we certainly didn't give guidance to that, and that's certainly not what I'm suggesting. We don't have any large-scale supermarket onboarding scheduled certainly for the next quarter. What happens thereafter, I really can't comment on. But I would still say that we're accountable to making sure that those expenses drop at a rate that's faster than any further decline in the gross margin. But there's nothing on the horizon, Meredith, that would cause us to think that what I just said isn't going to happen.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Sean Naughton with Piper Jaffray.

Sean Naughton

Analyst

Steve, when you started the conference call, you said organic and natural food trends are accelerating. I was just wondering if you're referring to continued acceleration in the business that we've seen to start the first quarter or was that really more of a review of fiscal year 2012? And then secondly, anything in terms of merchandise trends in the quarter, in the fourth quarter around organic food or specialty foods that you saw? And what do you think some of the opportunities are in those categories for 2013?

Steven Spinner

Analyst

Yes, I mean we obviously had a very strong '12, and I did -- was referencing so you caught that properly, that we have seen continued accelerated growth in the first quarter, so over the last several weeks by about 100 basis points. So we're very optimistic that the demand is continuing. As far as product categories, it's still the same ones. It's organic produce, demand for organic produce is fantastic. Organic dairy, which includes all of the yogurts, are still doing quite well. So I wouldn't call out any special -- any certain category that's growing more than it has in the past 12 months but the demand is accelerating, which is fantastic.

Sean Naughton

Analyst

That's great to hear. And then I guess on the -- Mark, maybe the inflation outlook for 2013, how should we think about that line item? And are you hearing anything from suppliers around potential price increases that are coming to the supply chain?

Mark Shamber

Analyst

Yes, I mean, I think from our standpoint, inflation dropped off a bit faster than we had expected in the fourth quarter. I mean, we had previously indicated we thought it'd be at 3.5% to 4%, and we ended up closer to 3%. As we go into fiscal '13, I probably wouldn't be comfortable looking out beyond the first 6 months, but I think it's probably in the range of 2% to 2.5%, maybe 2.75% for our first and second quarter which gets you through January. We have seen a couple of our suppliers, couple of our largest suppliers putting through price increases in the range of 2% to 3%, but what that effectively does is it keeps us in that 2% to 3% range, it doesn't really lead to any noticeable uptick in inflation. So as we sit here right now, that's our expectation for the next 6 months, and beyond that, it gets a little more difficult to project.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Ed Aaron with RBC Capital.

Edward Aaron

Analyst

First one, can you address the potential strike situation at Auburn and how much you've maybe accounted for that in your fiscal '13 guidance?

Steven Spinner

Analyst

Yes, I mean, there was a press release put out yesterday by the Teamsters rejecting our latest offer. The commentary, Ed, is that we've got a long-term relationship with this union. We've been negotiating for 5 months. We feel as though we've put an extremely fair and equitable offer on the table, which unfortunately they rejected. We have agreed to go to mediation to try to resolve the differences. And we're prepared to service the customers in any way we have to, in any circumstance that comes our way. It's very difficult to ascertain the costs because we're in active negotiations. And so we're not really sure how this is going to play out. So other than to say we're prepared to do whatever we have to, I think it would be unfair at this point to talk specifically about any costs that we may incur.

Edward Aaron

Analyst

Okay. Although, I mean, I guess to be fair, last quarter, you kind of did give a potential cost impact for fiscal '12, so I guess it's not entirely clear why you couldn't do it for fiscal '13?

Steven Spinner

Analyst

Well, I mean I think generally speaking, we felt and still feel confident that we're going to get this thing resolved. So I guess the short answer to your question is there's not a considerable amount built into our '13 budget. So we feel like we're just going to have to see how it goes.

Edward Aaron

Analyst

Okay, that's fair. And then on the Ridgefield conversion, it sounds like that went fairly well. Is there an opportunity to maybe kind of just, with one under your belt, to maybe accelerate the rollouts maybe more quickly to other DCs than you had planned in the past? Or can you maybe just kind of give a little bit more commentary around just how that conversion went relative to your expectations?

Sean Griffin

Analyst

Ed, this is Sean. We're very pleased with how the implementation went in Ridgefield. Our plan all along continues to be -- is to evaluate the performance. We have a very specific dashboard. We're measuring our production volume and -- as well as service levels in Ridgefield versus where they were prior to, make sure we're gaining efficiency. So we're kind of in the optimization stage for the next 60 days or so. We're presently evaluating where we go next. We haven't determined where that will be. But our game plan today will be 1 or 2 additional go live WN installs in FY '12. And of course, we're also looking at standing up a new distribution center in Denver that we previously discussed.

Steven Spinner

Analyst

Yes. I would say that, Ed, we learned some lessons from Lancaster, and so we're taking an extremely conservative approach, and we're comfortable with 1 to 2, and I think that's probably a pretty good goal for us.

Edward Aaron

Analyst

Okay. And then just my last question is a follow-up to Scott's earlier question about the operating expense leverage. So I understand kind of the year-over-year comparability dynamics that you spoke to. But if you look at like the operating expense dollars in Q4, on a sequential basis, they did come down, and like last few years, there's maybe been like one year where that's happened. So was there anything unique on a sequential basis that we should consider as it relates to the operating expenses in Q4?

Steven Spinner

Analyst

No.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Robbie Ohmes with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Robert Ohmes

Analyst

Just a couple quick follow-ups. I was wondering if sort of for the fiscal '13 guidance you gave, should we assume similar growth rate assumptions for supernaturals, independents and supermarkets?

Steven Spinner

Analyst

I think that the mix, I mean, if we could predict the mix, Robbie, we would be much better at predicting sort of where the gross margin's going to play out. I think the only comment I would make is I don't see anything foreseeable changing on the supernaturals or the independents, at least as relates to the overall trends. The conventional supermarket growth will certainly slow starting in the first quarter once we annualize the business that we took on. So we'll have 2 months where we're comping against not having that business. And then beginning in October, we'll have annualized it. So you'll definitely see the conventional supermarket slow down while the rest of the business, barring some shift in the overall trends, should stay at roughly the same rate.

Robert Ohmes

Analyst

And then on adding the capacity, the Northeast, Midwest, Northern California, are you foreseeing in that, are there new customers that you're seeing a couple of years out that you're targeting? You mentioned some of that being a growth driver. Maybe a little more detail on what's driving that or is it just a situation where your existing structure's overburdened?

Steven Spinner

Analyst

Well, I mean, we're growing. We grew almost 21% last year and almost 16% this year. There's a certain level of growth that you need to expand to keep pace. We don't want to find ourselves in the situation that we did in '05, '06 where we were doing 2 or 3 facilities a year because we didn't keep pace with the growth.

Mark Shamber

Analyst

Based on all the data points and the analysis that's been done, it certainly points you to continued industry growth of roughly 7% to 9%. But just based on the industry growth alone, we're going to have to make sure that we have the capacity in the right markets to meet the increased demand. We also know that there's a tremendous amount of continued opportunity for us in customers that we don't currently service or service to a much smaller degree than we'd like. And we've got to have the capacity available in order to take advantage of those opportunities when they come our way. But we can't operate facilities at 95% capacity because the cost of doing that just doesn't make sense, which is very hard to run a distribution center efficiently at 95% capacity.

Robert Ohmes

Analyst

And last question. Obviously, with Safeway coming on board, that's supporting the supermarket growth, but can you give us a sense, the sell-through rate in the supermarket business, because it's obfuscated by the onboarding of Safeway. I mean, is the sell-through rate in the supermarket business in line or above or below what you would've thought it would be?

Steven Spinner

Analyst

Yes, I mean, I think when we look at the comps x the new business that we've taken on, we find that the supermarkets are growing a little bit faster than the independents, and part of that is because they continue to expand the number of SKUs that they're carrying, whereas the independents, really, they're not -- they're trading off one SKU for another. So as natural and organics continue to gain adoption with the consumer, the supermarkets grow a little bit faster than the independents from that standpoint. But stripping out the new customer, I mean, they're in line probably a bit faster.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Andrew Wolf with BB&T Capital Markets.

Andrew Wolf

Analyst

Steve, in your comments talking about how you're looking margin to play out this year, that sounds like it's in relation to guidance and not into sort of what's going on in the market. So I was wanting to ask you, as you look at the market for conventional chains and contracts that might be up and either ones that you control, you're providing or ones that some competitors do, what the landscape kind of looks like, number one? And related to that, are you implying that if you add a large new supermarket chain, what does that do to contribution margin? You're running a little over 3%, 3.1% EBIT margin. Are you implying that it's dilutive, neutral or I know it obviously depends a lot on the bid and so on, but overall, what are you trying to tell us about whether that's -- what effect that has on the current operating margin?

Steven Spinner

Analyst

Sure. Well, let me answer the second question first. One, we're not implying that we're adding any new supermarket business. Certainly, that's not in our guidance. Two, and more importantly, I think that if we did look to take on another chunk of supermarket business, it would have to be accretive to our existing margin. We would not take on, at this point of the game, a supermarket chain that we would go into the relationship knowing that it would be dilutive to our 3%-plus operating margin. I mean, that's just not something that I think we're interested in doing. As it relates to the landscape for the new business, there's still tons of opportunities out there for us. We're very actively involved throughout the United States and Canada in terms of meeting with the likely candidates. There'll be some business that comes up for bid during the year, and we'll be an active participant. But I just want to make sure everybody's on the same page, there's no implication that we're going to add a large chunk of supermarket business in our guidance.

Andrew Wolf

Analyst

Yes, I realize that. I just wanted to get the margin question answered. I appreciate that. Kind of to piggyback on Robbie's capacity question, and if you answered this and you're repeating it, I apologize, but are there parts of the country like Denver, the Rockies where you're kind of at that 95% capacity? Or do you have the ability to do a decent chunk of new business in the market -- in a market, let's say, like Colorado?

Steven Spinner

Analyst

Yes, I mean, look, if we get an opportunity and it's a viable opportunity, we're not going to walk away from it because of capacity. But having said that, Denver is a great example of where we have a building at 90%-plus capacity. More importantly than the capacity issue in Denver is the inefficiency related to what we're doing in Denver because we're shipping out of 3 different buildings. And that is really tough to make work, especially when -- well, 3 of the buildings are at capacity. So this one's going to make sense just from the pure optics of merging them all into one facility versus trading as 3. In subsequent new construction, it'll be a combination of adding capacity in an adjacent facility and also adding capacity in a market that we don't currently play in. And the reason that we'll look at doing that is because in some circumstances, the transportation costs, in other words being closer to the consumer, are much better way of adding capacity than just building on an addition. And so those are essentially the 2 ways that we'll look at adding capacity in the markets that we talked about.

Andrew Wolf

Analyst

Got you. And if I could just add a quick housekeeping on Denver. Were you trying to -- is the rent expense cash or is it a full rent holiday until the distribution center's up and operating or is it sort of somewhere in the middle?

Steven Spinner

Analyst

It's not cash but it's not -- I mean, at this point, it's not even a rent holiday because the way the agreement is written with the landlord, we don't start getting the holiday until we're able to occupy the building. But the way the accounting rules work is because we're controlling the construction, we're deemed to take possession even though right now, it's just open pasture land. So we're paying rents -- we're straight-lining rents or incurring expense for a building that doesn't exist, that hasn't broken ground officially until tomorrow. We love that rule.

Andrew Wolf

Analyst

So there's no rent -- no cash rent, that $4 million -- $3.5 million to $4 million is a non-cash number, right?

Steven Spinner

Analyst

Yes. I mean, in the fourth quarter, Andy, there might be a couple hundred thousand dollars or so but there's no cash going out the door until the fourth quarter.

Mark Shamber

Analyst

We're also relocating our largest Albert's facility. We have the building in Bridgeport, New Jersey, they're at capacity and so we've got a new building under construction, and we'll move out of that facility into the new one during this fiscal year as well.

Steven Spinner

Analyst

Yes, that's about $0.25 million to $400,000 of the total rent number.

Andrew Wolf

Analyst

Okay. Last housekeeping on the mediation with the Teamsters in Auburn. Has the union also agreed to mediation?

Steven Spinner

Analyst

Yes.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Karen Short with BMO Capital Management.

Karen Short

Analyst

A couple of questions, just on the timing of the trends or conversions of the other 2 facilities in fiscal '13. Can you give a sense of what the timing will be and do you know which facilities you're going to transition next?

Steven Spinner

Analyst

Yes, we haven't announced the new facility and we haven't announced the timing yet. We know we're going to knock off 1 or 2 this year, but we just haven't -- we're just not sure of the exact timing and the locations yet.

Karen Short

Analyst

Okay. And then, I guess, just looking at Denver and how you're operating now in terms of the inefficiencies, I mean, can you maybe give a sense of what the operating margin might be at the facilities now versus what you think it could get to once the new facility is opened?

Steven Spinner

Analyst

Well, I mean, I can't talk specifically about Denver but I think I've made this reference point before, that if you look at the operating margin at our largest facility, and then you look at the operating margin at a facility that is the size of one of the Denver facilities, there could be as much as 400 to 700 basis points of difference.

Karen Short

Analyst

Okay, that's helpful. And then just looking at your guidance on the top line for fiscal '13, is there -- can you kind of outline what the acquisitions benefit might be in the top line? It sounds like these are both -- or the acquisitions you called out were pretty small but just asking?

Mark Shamber

Analyst

Yes, I mean, I would say that from a full year standpoint, they probably are between 75 and 100 basis points on the full year number, so somewhere in the range of $45 million to $60 million on an annual basis.

Karen Short

Analyst

Okay. And then last question. Could you maybe just make some comments on what the cadence of sales was in the fourth quarter and then into the first quarter?

Mark Shamber

Analyst

Karen, you actually broke up a little bit. Could you repeat that?

Karen Short

Analyst

Sorry, the cadence of sales throughout the fourth quarter and then into the first quarter.

Mark Shamber

Analyst

Yes, I mean, I would say that the sales were relatively strong and consistent throughout the fourth quarter. And as we got into the last month or so of the quarter heading into August, as Steve mentioned, we saw an acceleration where it's probably about 100 basis points from where we averaged for the fourth quarter.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Scott Van Winkle with Canaccord Genuity.

Scott Van Winkle

Analyst

Following up on that last one there. Did that 100 basis points extrapolate into the full year guidance?

Mark Shamber

Analyst

No. I mean, at this point, Scott, the full year guidance is, in some respects, front-end loaded because of the Safeway business annualizing. And as most of you follow us know, we tend to be a bit conservative where we'd rather adjust upward if the trends continue to be as positive as they are than to immediately take 5 weeks of the year and extrapolate that into the full year numbers.

Scott Van Winkle

Analyst

Okay. And the benefit of a 53rd week obviously is kind of clear on revenue. Is there anything else we should consider? Is it a better margin week? Is it a lower margin week? Is incentive comp not get that extra week added in? How do we think about the impact of that 53rd week on margin or earnings on top of revenue?

Mark Shamber

Analyst

Yes, I mean, I would say that as you think about the 53rd week, there's no extra leverage that we really gain. I mean, I guess you could say on the incentive comp but in the grand scheme of all the different numbers, that's not a huge impact. It's relatively the same contribution from an operating margin percentage. The one thing that I would highlight is that July and the fourth quarter usually is a step down from a sales standpoint of where the third quarter is, so that extra week in and of itself is probably one of our slower weeks of the year, but it doesn't give us anything from a leverage standpoint on the operating margin.

Scott Van Winkle

Analyst

And you usually build inventory into this fiscal first quarter. Last year was a big build. Was last year's big build more to do with taking on Safeway than the sequential build?

Mark Shamber

Analyst

Yes, most definitely. The sequential build that we start to have for the first quarter usually starts right around now. So if not this week, next week, we will start to build from an inventory level standpoint.

Scott Van Winkle

Analyst

And then last question. Just to make sure I got the end of Andy's questioning about rent. Did you say $1.5 million to $2 million of that $5 million to $5.5 million would be in Q4 this year? Or did I get that wrong?

Mark Shamber

Analyst

I don't know. The rent is throughout the year. I think what I was sort of saying to Andy is that maybe $200,000 to $300,000 of the cash would be in the fourth quarter, but the rest of the year, there's no cash associated with it. But the relocation costs, all the rent -- the rent will be spread relatively evenly throughout the course of the year but it's the cash charges will all -- associated with the moves will all occur in the fourth quarter. So the $1 million that I gave associated with the actual relocation and getting from one building or getting from 3 buildings to one building, that will all occur in the fourth quarter. But it's not the rent aspect of it. It's the actual physical relocation.

Scott Van Winkle

Analyst

Okay. And then one more. The low end of your EPS guidance range, what does that assume?

Mark Shamber

Analyst

It assumes the sales being at the low end of the range and almost all the different possibilities that we have going wrong. So it assumes a significant amount of costs for the relocation beyond what we expected. It assumes that we don't gain leverage, it assumes that we see a bit more pressure on the gross margin, and it assumes some of the costs associated with the possible labor action in the Northwest, but not all because again, we have no idea whether it'll even amount to that or how long it would be. So it's kind of a lot of things going against us, far more going against us than for us.

Steven Spinner

Analyst

But the bottom end of the range, I think, if the math is right, is still 10% ahead of this year.

Scott Van Winkle

Analyst

It's a worse-case scenario type of number.

Steven Spinner

Analyst

Yes.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Jason DeRise with UBS.

Jason DeRise

Analyst

It's Jason DeRise. I have a question on the cash flows. Actually, I'm surprised we've gotten to this point and really haven't talked about it. But your cash flows, you said, were at the low end of what you expected for this year, and then the CapEx guidance is ramping up significantly, especially since the CapEx was below what you expected. So I'm just trying to understand the bridge of how we get to your expectations of still meeting a $30 million to $50 million free cash flow number.

Mark Shamber

Analyst

Yes, I mean, there's 2 components to that. One obviously is the increased profitability. The second is that we were at the higher end of our range from an inventory level perspective. And so right now, Jason, a day of inventory for us is roughly $12.5 million. So from a working capital standpoint, if we were at $48 million -- I'm sorry, if we were at 48 days versus 50 days of inventory on hand, that would be an extra $25 million of free cash.

Steven Spinner

Analyst

And until we continue to roll out a lot of the technology that we're putting in, we still have to rely on a larger or a higher amount of inventory to ensure that our service level stays up. We know that if we bring our inventory down, we run the risk of having a worsening service level. And that's just not a position that we're going to operate in, especially as we gear up for the holiday season. So we know that we're going to have to make the investment in the inventory to keep the service level up and satisfy the customers at the risk of our free cash.

Jason DeRise

Analyst

Okay. And so when I think about this coming year, you do expect to get to at least $30 million in free cash flow, and I should think about the improving inventory as what closes that gap or it's not quite yet this year, maybe even next year?

Steven Spinner

Analyst

No, I mean, I think, as we sit here today, we still think that we hit the low end of the range, and I think that the inventory is one aspect that helps us maintain that number. I mean, if we take -- I mean, if you look at it from the standpoint that we're at $35 million and we finish next year at say 48 days on hand versus 50 days on hand, that's an incremental $25 million along with the additional profits that we make which you can put anywhere in that range. And those 2 factors combined in general would allow us to still hit at least the low end of the range if we hit our guidance from a free cash standpoint.

Jason DeRise

Analyst

Okay. That definitely helps clarify that. Just I guess one last one. You've talked about adding produce capabilities and you've done some acquisitions there. How does that change the complexity of what you're trying to do from a distribution point of view or is that a non-issue?

Steven Spinner

Analyst

Yes, it's not an issue because the produce acquisition we did within our Albert's business which is a produce distribution company.

Jason DeRise

Analyst

Okay. And you just run it separately, there's no -- you're not trying to integrate it anymore in any way?

Steven Spinner

Analyst

Well, the produce company that we bought is essentially in a sourcing entity and that's being merged into our existing sourcing business. And so they're not really engaged in the wholesale distribution of produce. They're more engaged in the sourcing of organic produce.

Mark Shamber

Analyst

They have a lower operating margin which will provide a little bit of drag on us, probably 1 or 2 basis points in fiscal '13, but they're not taking physical possession of a lot of the inventory that they're selling as part of that role.

Operator

Operator

Your next question is from the line of Colin Guheen with Cowen and Company.

Colin Guheen

Analyst

First question, just any update on the size of the addressable market in supermarkets? I was glad to hear your comments around margins but how big can the supermarket business be?

Steven Spinner

Analyst

Well, I mean, if you look at the total organic and specialty industry, it's certainly close to $100 billion. So UNFI in total is just under $6 billion so there's tremendous amount of opportunity in front of us. If you look at the supermarket channel specifically, while we do sell a large number of them, there are at least 15-plus that we have either a small relationship with or don't sell at all. So there is a tremendous amount of opportunity for UNFI, both in the specialty, the natural, the organic product mix in the supermarket channel. And the same thing holds true with independents just across a different product set.

Colin Guheen

Analyst

Great. And then on the other end of the spectrum. Just some commentary on the profit trends and maybe some of these drop ship models that have emerged, where they are today, where you think they go in the future?

Steven Spinner

Analyst

You're talking about the fulfillment business?

Colin Guheen

Analyst

Correct.

Steven Spinner

Analyst

It's a relatively small part of our business today, so I think the margin profile is probably similar to our overall margin profile. But it's extremely fast-growing. And while we have a position in that market today, the acquisition of Honest Green and their technology will really serve to help us accelerate growth in the business-to-business fulfillment side.

Colin Guheen

Analyst

And any comments on what that technology is or just a little background there?

Steven Spinner

Analyst

They are essentially a site and you can look at it, it's www.honestgreen.com, that has done a couple things. They've gone out and they've sourced fantastic, sustainable general merchandise, natural and organic products that they sell on a B2B basis. They've got a fantastic storefront that we're going to be using, and it creates a whole slew of opportunities in terms of us assisting independents in setting up their own storefronts to sell products that they market within their own stores over the Internet that we can do the back-of-the-house fulfillment for.

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that does conclude our conference for today. If you'd like to listen to a replay of today's conference, please dial (303) 590-3030 or 1 (800) 406-7325. The access code is 4559038. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.