Mike Zechmeister
Analyst · Christopher Mandeville of Jefferies. Please go ahead. Your line is open
Thank you, Sean, and good evening, everyone. I will cover our third quarter financial performance and comment on our fiscal 2019 outlook. Let's start with our third quarter results, which again include a full quarter contribution from legacy SUPERVALU or conventional business. Q3 net sales were $5.96 billion, an increase of approximately $3.31 billion, or 125% compared to Q3 last year. The conventional business added $3.24 billion, and I'll talk about the comparability of the conventional net sales versus a year ago in a moment. Legacy UNFI's natural net sales accounted for the remainder, which equates to year-over-year growth of approximately 2.8%. In the third quarter, we experienced inflation of 1.79%, which represents the highest we've seen since Q2 of fiscal 2016. Inflation on the conventional side of the business was approximately 45 basis points higher than on the natural business. As a reminder, from a channel perspective, legacy SUPERVALU net sales are broken out into UNFI's historic channels. For Q3, the supermarket channel grew 420% versus the third quarter of last year, and represented 61.6% of total net sales. Conventional supermarket net sales were $2.97 billion in Q3, and as Sean pointed out represented a comparable decline of approximately 3.6% versus last year when conventional was not part of the UNFI business. Excluding this acquired conventional business, legacy UNFI's supermarket channel net sales would have decreased by 1.8% versus Q3 last year. Please note that a year ago SUPERVALU was a customer of UNFI in a cross-stock program. As a result, each company independently recognized the cross-stock program net sales. In the combined company, these consolidated net sales are only recognized once, and therefore, get reflected as lower net sales growth year-over-year. Adjusting last year's results for these duplicative cross-stock sales, natural supermarket channel net sales would have decreased by 0.4% versus Q3 last year. Net sales in the independent channel grew 20.2% and represented approximately 13.9% of total net sales. Excluding the impact of the acquired conventional volume independent channel net sales would have grown approximately 2.5%. Third quarter supernatural net sales grew 11.1% over Q3 last year and represented 18.5% of total net sales. Lastly, our other channel grew by 36.5% and represented 6.0% of total net sales. Natural net sales in this channel decreased 15.3% driven primarily by e-commerce declines where we have not yet cycled the declines from the rationalization of lower profit businesses. Let's turn to gross margins. Gross margin for the third quarter was 13.22% of net sales, a decrease of 219 basis points compared to the same period last year. The largest driver of this year-over-year change was the mix impact of adding the conventional business, which operates at a lower gross margin rate. You may also recall that in Q3 last year, we recorded a $20.9 million favorable impact to gross margin resulting from a change in estimate related to our accrual for inventory purchases. It is estimated that the majority of the favorable impact to last year was associated with the third quarter and the remainder related to Q2 and to a lesser extent Q1 and prior. This year's Q3 gross margin was also negatively impacted compared to last year by a shift in customer mix within the natural business where growth with customers where we have lower gross margins outpaced growth with customers where we have higher gross margins. Inbound freight expense improved again sequentially in Q3 and is back in line with expectations after having been a headwind in the back half of last fiscal year. Finally, we recorded non-cash LIFO expense in Q3 that represented approximately 12 basis points of net sales. Third quarter operating expenses totaled 12.37% of net sales, an increase of seven basis points compared to 12.30% in Q3 last year, driven by a 38 basis point increase in depreciation and amortization and largely offset by acquisition-related cost synergies. In the third quarter, our natural business fuel cost decreased by three basis points as a percent of net sales, compared to Q3 of fiscal 2018 and represented 44 basis points of distribution net sales. Our diesel fuel cost per gallon increased approximately 90 basis points in Q3 versus Q3 of last year, while the Department of Energy's national average for diesel was up approximately 0.7% or $0.02 per gallon over the comparable period. Q3's share-based compensation expense was $9.3 million and represented 16 basis points of net sales compared to 30 basis points in Q3 last year. The improvement was due primarily to acquisition-related synergies. Operating income for the third quarter, which excludes discontinued operations was $69.7 million compared to operating income of $82.2 million in Q3 last year. Q3 operating income included $50.1 million of additional depreciation and amortization expense driven by the acquisition and a favorable non-cash adjustment of approximately $38.3 million to the goodwill impairment charge that was taken in the second quarter as we advanced our purchase accounting work. I'll provide some additional color on that shortly. Q3 operating income also included restructuring, acquisition and integration-related costs that totaled $19.4 million and the unfavorable comparison to last year's change in estimate relating to the accrual for inventory purchases. Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $168.2 million, an increase of 50% compared to last year's $111.9 million. This includes $34.1 million of adjusted EBITDA reported in discontinued operations. As a reminder, discontinued operations adjusted EBITDA is benefiting from the GAAP requirement to include certain retail-related costs in continuing operations instead of the remainder of retail in -- instead it went to the remainder of retail in discontinued operations. These costs include rent expense for the retail stores and overhead costs related to retail. The requirement to carry these retail-related costs in continuing operations is the primary reason we are providing adjusted EBITDA guidance on a consolidated basis. You'll notice that we've updated the presentation of adjusted EBITDA in the press release tables. I hope you find this format helpful. Net interest expense in Q3 was $54.9 million, which represents an average annualized borrowing rate of approximately 6.5%. At the end of the third quarter, we had approximately $2.2 billion of interest rate swaps in place, resulting in approximately 72% of our debt portfolio, now effectively having fixed interest rates with swap maturities staggered over the next six years. Q2 GAAP EPS was $1.12 per fully diluted share, which included the $38.3 million pretax favorable adjustment to goodwill and the $19.4 million of pretax restructuring acquisition and integration costs. Excluding these items and a few smaller items outlined in the press release, adjusted EPS was $0.61 per share, compared to adjusted EPS of $1.04 in Q3 last year, which excluded $0.02 per share in expense related to tax reform. The year-over-year reduction was driven primarily by operating income items that I described previously and higher acquisition-related interest expense. Next, I'll address the $38.3 million favorable impairment charge adjustment. As a part of our ongoing acquisition-related purchase accounting efforts, we refreshed the preliminary fair value estimates of legacy SUPERVALU's net assets, which affected the initial goodwill attributable to the acquisition. The primary adjustment was an increase to intangible assets. In total, this change to the preliminary fair value estimates resulted in an updated year-to-date impairment charge of $332.6 million, which compared to the $370.9 million charge recorded in the second quarter necessitated $38.3 million favorable adjustment --. As a reminder, the carrying value of acquired SUPERVALU net assets may continue to be preliminary for up to one year following the close of the acquisition, which is Q1 of fiscal 2020. Q3 ending working capital excluding short-term debt was $1.67 billion compared to $1.63 billion at the end of Q2. Q3 working capital included sequential improvements in inventory, accounts receivable and accounts payable, which were more than offset by the impact of our 338(g) tax elections payment and changes related to the payout of deferred comp liabilities. Capital expenditures for the quarter were approximately $57 million or 0.96% of net sales, which brings the year-to-date total to approximately $137 million or 0.91% of sales. We are expecting higher than year-to-date capital expenditures as a percent of net sales in the fourth quarter due primarily to the Pacific Northwest DC consolidation and acquisition-related information technology investments. Outstanding total balance sheet debt and capital lease obligations at the end of Q3 net of cash and cash equivalents was $3.16 billion, a reduction of $21 million since the end of Q2. That brings our total net debt reduction since Q1 to approximately $187 million. This net debt reduction occurred despite a $59 million cash tax payment in Q3 related to the 338g tax elections, which I mentioned on our March 5th call. In Q3 we also received approximately $25 million in net proceeds from the sale of assets, which was recorded in discontinued operations and primarily the result of the sale of several retail stores and a non-operating distribution center that previously serviced Shop 'n Save stores in St. Louis. Moving to leverage. Our Q3 net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA leverage was approximately 5.1 times excluding operating leases and our net adjusted debt-to-adjusted EBITDAR was approximately 4.6 times. These leverage calculations are based on Q3 ending face value of debt less cash on hand, the low end of our adjusted EBITDA guidance for fiscal 2019 and adjusted to include a full year contribution from conventional. At the end of Q3, we had $832 million of available liquidity through a combination of outstanding lender commitments under our asset based lending credit facility and balance sheet cash. This represented the highest level of available liquidity in the company's history. Let's turn to our full year outlook for fiscal 2019. We're updating our guidance for the full year GAAP EPS. We are now expecting a loss of $5.85 to $5.65 per fully diluted share, which is a $0.55 per share improvement at the midpoint versus the previous guidance of a loss of $6.50 to $6.10 per share. The improved EPS guidance is driven by three factors; first, is the $38.3 million favorable impairment adjustment. Second, is the expectation of additional -- of an additional $10 million in restructuring, acquisition and integration related expenses due primarily to our Pacific Northwest DC network realignment, which brings our estimate for fiscal 2019 restructuring, acquisition and integration to $182 million. Third, we are now tracking to finish the year closer to the low end of the adjusted EBITDA range of $580 million to $610 million that we provided in March. Several factors are driving our outlook for adjusted EBITDA; first, total net sales are also tracking closer to the low end of the $21.5 billion to $22 billion range that we provided in March for the reasons that Sean and Steve discussed earlier; second, as Sean stated shrink at our conventional DCs are improving but remains higher than we've projected back in March; and third, our full year LIFO charge is expected to be higher as inflation has run higher than previously anticipated. As a reminder, our fiscal year outlook includes the 53rd week in Q4 and the conventional business for 41 weeks. It also assumes that we continue to own and operate both Cub and Shoppers for the remainder of this fiscal year. As a reminder if the divestiture of Shoppers or Cub were to happen prior to the end of the fiscal year, we would expect to incur additional onetime expenses. With regards to adjusted EPS there's no change to the previous guidance of $2 to $2.40 per fully diluted share that we provided in March. Moving to taxes. Our outlook for cash taxes related to business operations remains unchanged at less than $20 million for fiscal 2019. As previously indicated that excludes the $59 million tax payment we made in Q3 related to the 338g tax elections. As a quick recap, 338g tax elections treat the SUPERVALU acquisition for tax purposes only as an asset purchase rather than a stock purchase. They allow UNFI to utilize a significant portion of the $2.9 billion capital loss carry forward that SUPERVALU generated from the divestiture of the Albertsons business in calendar 2013. Under these elections, we will be able to step up the tax basis of the acquired assets to fair market value, which provides UNFI with increased future depreciation and amortization deductions, lowers our taxable income and reduces future cash tax obligations. To achieve the 338g benefits, we made a $59 million cash tax payment in February for ordinary income associated with the elections. Net of this payment, we expect these tax elections to generate cash tax savings of an estimated $300 million over the next 15 years. The 338g related tax, or cash tax savings began as expected in Q3. For fiscal 2020, we anticipate a net cash tax benefit of at least $20 million. And it's important to note that these cash tax savings are incremental to the cost synergies of greater than $185 million that Steve referenced earlier. Normally we would provide an adjusted tax rate but given the negative expected GAAP earnings and positive adjusted earnings, we believe an adjusted tax rate is not as helpful as providing the cash taxes we expect to pay in fiscal 2019. In closing, I'd like to remind investors that our year-end earnings call in September will include fiscal 2020 guidance as well as updated long-term guidance and associated commentary on each. Fiscal 2020 will be a 52-week fiscal year compared to the 53 weeks in fiscal 2019 and the conventional business will be included for a full 52 weeks versus the 41 weeks included in fiscal 2019. Now, I'll turn the call back to Steve.