Good day, and welcome to the Upstart Q2 2022 Earnings Call. Today’s conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Jason Schmidt, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us on today’s conference call to discuss Upstart’s second quarter 2022 financial results. With us on today’s call are Dave Girouard, Upstart’s Chief Executive Officer; and Sanjay Datta, our Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I want to remind you that shortly after the market closed today, Upstart issued a press release announcing its second quarter 2022 financial results and published an Investor Relations presentation and credit FAQ. All are available on our Investor Relations website ir.upstart.com. During the call, we will make forward-looking statements, such as guidance for the third quarter of 2022 related to our business and our plans to expand our platform in the future. These statements are based on our current expectations and information available as of today and are subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Actual results may differ materially as a result of various risk factors that have been described in our filings with the SEC. As a result, we caution you against placing undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements as a result of new information or future events, except as required by law. In addition, during today’s call, unless otherwise stated, references to our results are provided as non-GAAP financial measures and are reconciled to our GAAP results, which can be found in the earnings release and supplemental tables. [Operator Instructions] Later this quarter, Upstart will be participating in the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference, September 13 and the Piper Sandler Growth Frontiers Conference, September 14. Now, I’d like to turn it over to Dave Girouard, CEO of Upstart.

Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us on our earnings call, covering our second quarter, 2022 results. I’m Dave Girouard, Co-Founder and CEO of Upstart. Today, we reported a decline in revenues, which is obviously disappointing and unacceptable to us. I want to explain, where this decline came from and what we’re doing to address it. It may be natural for you to question whether Upstart’s AI-powered risk models aren’t working as designed, but we’re confident this isn’t the case. That in fact, our models continue to improve with respect to accuracy and risk separation, but there’s no getting around the fact that a decline in revenues is a business problem that we need to address. And today we’ll share with you the actions we’re taking to address it. Today, Sanjay and I will discuss a variety of topics, including credit performance, loan funding, lending partners sentiment, and some of the actions we’re taking right now to make sure Upstart’s future is bright. I also want to share with you the progress we’ve made in many important aspects of our business and how they’re setting the stage once again for Upstart’s growth in the future. I don’t want to spend too much time restating what you’ve already heard about the current economic climate. Given the nature of our product in our borrower, we do however; have a unique lens into what’s transpired in the last two plus years and what may transpire in the coming months and years. We believe we’re at the end of a unique economic cycle related to the pandemic that included two distinct phases. The first phase was triggered by a pandemic constrained consumer spending in unprecedented government stimulus throughout 2020 and early 2021. These together drove significant improvements in consumer savings levels and liquidity,…

Thank you, Dave. And thanks to everyone for joining. The environment we're operating in has continued to evolve rapidly since our previous call. Industry data shows a general rise in delinquencies across all segments of unsecured credit, disproportionately impacting the higher risk tiers that is comprised a significant component of our borrower base. The impact of this dynamic on the credit performance of Upstart loans can be seen in the supplemental credit performance information that was released today together with our investor materials. The macro uncertainty and the impact of economic stress on consumer delinquencies have led to a decrease in available funding for loans on our platform, which has become the operating constraint of the business. While today's results are in line with the preliminary numbers we pre announced on July the 7th. I will quickly call out the key financial headlines. On the top line, origination volumes and revenue from fees were both down from last quarter and below our internal expectations, driven primarily by funding constraints in the capital markets. While profitability was also below guidance we began to systematically improve unit economics in the second half of the quarter and if pivoted to optimizing for in quarter cash flow generation, which will carry over into our third quarter contribution margins. Following our recent share repurchase authorization, we have repurchased approximately 4.4 million shares of Upstart. Totaling $150 million in repurchases. Additionally, we sold a meaningful amount of the loan assets from our balance sheet in Q2, in order to fortify our cash position. With these dynamics in mind here now is a more detailed summary of our numbers. Net revenues in Q2 came in at $228 million up 18% year-over-year. Revenue from fees constituted $258 million of that amount representing 113% of overall revenue and up…

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And we will go first to Simon Clinch with Atlantic Equities.

Hi everyone. Thanks for taking my question. I was wondering Dave or Sanjay, if you could talk a little bit more about what – how you actually go about sort of refocusing your institutional buyer investor base to sort of longer term investors and I guess, how long that might take and a sense of the steps that you need to take to achieve that goal?

Hi there. Sure. This is Dave, I’ll give a quick answer and then Sanjay, may want to chime in. Sure. So essentially, the nature of our agreements today by and large are at will agreements with the volume that anybody, any particular entity is originating or purchasing is decided on a month-by-month basis. And we’re talking about instead about structures where there’s committed funding over a significant period of time, many, many months or even years. And really that’s, in return in some form for access to yield over that period of time, in some form of economics that make sense for those entities. So, we don’t have more specifics just to share than that, other than certainly I think a lot of marketplace businesses in many different types of industries take actions to secure effectively, secure inventory on their platforms one way or another. And we’ve decided this is just necessary for us. And so we’re beginning the steps toward taking in a getting that done.

Yes, I’ll just add Dave that, this is Sanjay. I think that we’ve demonstrated, and we’ll be able to demonstrate certainly as we go through this cycle, pretty attractive long term yields for anyone who’s willing to hold and invest through cycle and Dave cited some of those numbers and we’ve got some of those in the releases we’ve provide. And so, I think there’s a class of capital provider out there for whom access to that would be attractive. And those are sort of, more – arrangements that, that will take a while to put into place. But I think that, predominantly what we have today are capital providers who are vintage-by-vintage. And in some sense may depend on either leverage or liquidity for ABS markets, which creates more volatility. So, I think now that we have some proof points, which demonstrate what yield looks like through a cycle, we will use that to enter into negotiations and arrangements with partners that are more of the style of, wanting predictable stability in terms of access to yield. And so I think that’s all we really have to share at this time. As they’ve said, these aren’t going to happen overnight. They’re pretty complex relationships, but I think we’re all very convicted that’s, that’s the direction that will provide stability for our platform to get to the next level of volume.

Okay. All right. That’s useful. And just as a follow up Dave, I think in your opening comments, you mentioned your views that, the we’re heading for significant slowdown in the near term recession the next so and so months. And I guess a slower economic growth outlook beyond fiscal 2023. And I was just wondering if you could expand on your thoughts there and I guess sort, what you’re seeing and what gives you that much bleaker outlook and perhaps I’ve heard from others?

Yes, sure. It’s Dave, I wouldn’t say that it’s my outlook per se. I’m definitely not a macro forecaster, in Upstart does not try to hold within it skills, kind of a crystal ball about the next phases in the economy, what I was trying to state though, is that we try to build in what you would think of as some form of market consensus, where the market thinks the economy’s going to go with a degree of conservatism sufficient for, banks and investors and credit unions, et cetera, to feel comfortable in the platform. So, we necessarily take what you might consider a conservative viewpoint on them, only because it’s a good starting point for those who are on the platform with capital at risk. It doesn’t necessarily mean it’s my personal outlook or Upstart’s personal outlook, or really, it’s just trying to reflect a reasonable and a conservative take on where the economy could be in the next couple of years.

Great. Thanks. I’ll jump back in the queue

And we’ll go next to Mike Ng of Goldman Sachs.

Hey, good afternoon. Thank you very much for the question. I just have two. First, could you talk a little bit more about the fee revenue as a percentage of originations? It was quite strong in the quarter. I was just wondering if there were any specific drivers that led to that increase, whether those are price increases or the loan mix? And then second just on the guidance for the third quarter for $170 million of revenue. Could you just talk a little bit about the mix between fee revenue and net interest income and any notable points around fair value adjustments? Thank you.

Sure. Michael, this is Sanjay. Sure. On the first question that can I presume, you’re sort of talking about take rates when you say strength you’re talking about?

Yes.

Okay. Yes, I mean, I think it’s as simple as and I think we’ve signaled this in the past. We’ve typically been optimizing for not intern cash production, but sort of long term volume in how we price. And so our take rates have generally always been at a level where, we are able to produce more volume that will lead to model acceleration and learning and will lead to, future value in the form of repeat loans. And obviously in a situation like we’re in today, where we are funding constrained and we’re much more focused on in quarter cash generation. We’ve sort of set, our fees at a more optimal level, if you will. And so we’ve priced them higher. And that has the effect of creating a more resilient in quarter P&L. And so that’s, I would say just an artifact of how we’re managing the business through the choppiness that we’re experiencing in the market. And the second question really was around the guidance and fair value in particular, I believe. I mean, I think most of our revenue is an expression of transaction volume and fee revenue. There still is some downside in terms of fair value. We disclosed in our investor material, the size, the balance sheet we’re holding, which is pretty much on par with last quarter. And to the extent there’s more interest rates exposure, if the rates continue to rise, those will necessarily depress asset values and create some fair value exposure, but we’re not making I would say large assumptions one way or the other about macro variables. We’re really, I guess trying to express the direction of transaction volume and the consequence of your revenue.

Great. Thank you for the thoughts, Sanjay. That’s very helpful.

Thank you, Michael.

And we’ll go next to Andrew Boone with JMP Securities.

Hi guys. Thanks so much for taking my questions. As we think about, you moving more loans onto the balance sheet? Can you help us understand the guardrails that you’re thinking about understood still early here, but how do we think about just, what’s the potential for using balance sheet? And then as you talked about lenders and just the attractiveness of yields that are available right now, can you talk about just how you’re educating your partners to be able to step back in? How can you proactively have them come back? Thanks so much.

Hey, Andrew, this is Dave. On balance sheet usage, I would just say, first of all, we will most certainly be prudent in usage of our cash in any way. As Sanjay said earlier, it is not our intention to become a large balance sheet lender whatsoever our long-term strategy hasn’t changed. We aren’t becoming a bank, but certainly we see ourselves in a transitional phase where we are – we’re recognizing the need for permanent or more committed capital on the platform. And as a bridge to that, we want to have the freedom to do the right things at the right time to get from here to there. It doesn’t really change our overall philosophy, but we nor do we think it’s great at this time to have sort of a litmus test of not using our balance sheet whatsoever with a lot of cash in our balance sheet. And we want to use it to the advantage of the business over the long haul. So, but for sure, we’re a company that has always been very much capital efficient as a private company. What we raised very modestly compared to others? How we used it? We’ve been profitable most of our time as a public company. So, I think, we have the genetics of the company that likes to be cash efficient, and we certainly will do nothing to put our operational capacity at risk or our business at risk with our balance sheet irrespective of whether or not we choose to use some of it within the marketplace. Sanjay, you had anything to add to that?

Yes, I mean, I guess, sure. I’ll just Andrew, I’ll just reiterate, it’s still our intention in the long-term to be a platform that, decisions third party capital, we don’t want to be in the business of being a balance sheet. Now, as you’ve seen, we’re sort of signaling a contraction in our guidance. We recognize that we need less, that low funding, more committed funding, and they get us through to that point. Think, what we’re expressing is not so much an intention as a flex, as a unique for flexibility in making that transition. But as Dave said, we’ve always been very, very, very careful stewards of the capital that are on our balance sheet. We’ve always run a very lean company. So this is really more about just making sure, we have what’s in may be stability of model in order to make that that transition. And then there’s the second question you asked is, how are we engaging the capital markets and the funding markets in order to provide them discomfort? And there’s a couple of ways I mean, certainly, the amount of information that we’ve provided to the broader public in the form of the so FAQs and the blog posts and the additional investor information we’ve released today. We have a much deeper level of information that we take to the funding markets. And in fact, in the same way that we hold sort of a conference broadcast in order to discuss business results with the equity markets, we’re going to have a similar construct with the funding markets. And so, we do have, I think as much or more information about anybody as the current direction of the delinquencies and in very real time, and we’re going to do our best to express that. And then part of this goes back to your question on balance sheet in some sense that the markets would like a signal of confidence in the way that the loans are currently being priced and in the macro assumptions that they’ve talked about and, using our balance sheet to some extent as a signal, I think can provide a lot of comfort to the funding market. So that’s something that’s not lost on us, given the asymmetry of information that we have around, how the models are calibrated and how the loans are currently trending.

Thank you.

We’ll go next to Ramsey El-Assal with Barclays.

Hi, thanks so much for taking my question this evening. Can you give us some color on what you’re seeing most recently in the business quarter to date in July?

Yes. Hey, Ramsey, this Sanjay. Are you referring to any particular aspect of the business? Or meaning the financials, the sort of volume the credit performance or so general sort of both of…

It was quite general.

Okay. I mean, I think the best expression of what we’re seeing to date in the business is, I said is sort of reflected in our guidance if you will. So, I think that, as we’ve said there’s a continuing contraction on the top line, which is evident to anyone. And I think that’s probably that the headline for, what we’re managing through right now.

And would you characterize that, as having gone down and you’re sort of seeing some stability in performance at this point? Or is it still something where you have relatively limited visibility as trends are sort of maybe unstable and still sort of on the move?

When you say performance trends, are you referring to credit performance or?

I am referring to credit performance, but also I guess all in addition, perhaps like the demand environment.

I don’t think there’s too much to the comment on with respect to the demand environment outside of what we’re signaling with guidance. I think that’s probably the best reflection we have of it. With respect to credit trends, I would say this, the macro environment remains very fluid obviously. And it’s something that I think is changing month by month. And so I would characterize that as continuing fluidity. I would say with, with respect to how our model is sort of consuming and predicting the future. I think there’s been significantly recalibrations in our model since the beginning of this year. So, when you therefore look at how the loans are performing against how they’re being priced, I think there’s pretty big changes, in those curves, maybe starting as sort of recently as January or February. And so due to that, I think that the model has very much recalibrated to where the macro is. And as they’ve said, in terms of how it’s thinking about the future, there’s significant conservatism and the assumptions around what will happen in the macro. And we don’t have any specific knowledge or ability to forecast the macro than you or anyone else has, but with what we have and the trends we’re seeing, I think that you could say that the assumptions are very conservative.

Got it, Sanjay. Thank you very much.

Okay.

And we’ll move on to our next question from Pete Christiansen with Citi.

Good afternoon. Thanks for the question. I have two. Dave, as it relates to the relationship with the CFPB, can you just walk through some of the changes have been there? I know that a bunch of nuances, but if you can give your take of how that relationship is moving? And then my second question is, as it relates to the 3Q guide, are there any assumptions that there’ll be ABS issuance in the quarter? Thanks.

Sure. Thanks, Pete. I’ll take the first question. I’ll let Sanjay handle the second one. We continue to have and what we consider be a great relationship with the CFPB. We’ve had that relationship since the very early days of the company through three different administrations. So, we have a lot of history with them. We consider it constructive. We’ve always been very transparent and forthright with them. We, as many know we had had this form of a no action letter agreement that started way back in 2017, renewed in 2022. And a few months back, we requested to terminated early really in the sense that it was mission accomplished the – it had done what we hoped and in terms of getting a lot of feedback from the CFPB on how to properly test for fairness in a sort of modern lending model. And so through a long – a lot of period of times in the years we built – we considered be very sophisticated forms of testing that we do on behalf of all of our bank partners. So, we have continued strong relationship with CFPB, that structure of no actual letters, et cetera. It’s something to CFPB internally decided they want to move away from. So, I think that’s, okay by us, as we said, we felt in the early days of our existence and before we had really refined how to do fairness testing, right, it was very useful. But today we continue to believe we have state-of-the art fairness testing. We do that reliably on behalf of all of our lending partners. And we do continue to have open communication with CFPB and it would expect to do so in the future as well.

Hey, Pete, this is Sanjay. To your second question, there’s no explicit assumptions we’re making with respect to ABS issuance in our guidance. And we continue to issue regularly, obviously the execution in the market right now is quite volatile. But we don’t have an explicit assumption on what that looks like or dependency on it.

Okay. Thanks gentlemen. I’ll get back into queue.

Thanks, Pete.

And we will go next to Arvind Ramnani with Piper Sandler.

Hi, thanks for taking my question. Yes, just a couple of questions. As you’re deciding to use your own balance sheet or use your banking partners for some of your loans, what are some of the trigger points you will use to kind of make that determination?

Hey, Arvind, this is Dave. What let’s just say, I mean, we don’t have specific trigger points per se. What we just want to really have this flexibility. I think being able to transition from one state of our funding supply to another is one we want to make sure goes smoothly. And with some confidence and just in – and getting from here to there in a way that’s not disrupted to our partners, to our employees, to anything else. So, we don’t have any definitive trigger points other than we absolutely intend to be cautious and prudent with the use of our cash. We are confident that, there’s real profits available on our platform today. So, for that sort of basic reason, it makes sense for us to do so. But it isn’t our goal to build a giant balance sheet. And it’s certainly not our intention over time is, is to sort of switch toward that form of a business. We do believe it makes most sense for us, for our employees, for our shareholders, for all of our partners, to have some flexibility in how we navigate through a pretty unique economic time that we are sitting in today.

Yes. That’s helpful. And is that something that you will like sort of plan to communicate to investors as you look to expand the balance sheet? Or will – is it kind of going to be part of the regularly schedule earnings calls, if you plan to go the road?

Hey, Arvind, this is Sanjay. I think it’ll make be a component of our regular communications with the market. I don’t necessarily foresee anything that’s so extraordinary that would require an interim communication, but if there is, we’ll certainly make it. Just as an aside – just as an aside, I don’t know if you’ve seen it, but we are sort of breaking out the balance sheet and the exact components of it in our investor materials now.

Yes, yes. I did see that. And then just one of the things that you talked about certainly was, how you continue to see a models, better equipped to price loans? And I know in prior earnings calls, you’ve talked about some banks referring to use Upstart versus like a FICO score. But are you using similar validation through your partners? That’s that may sort of ease up the funding sources in terms of like sort of really validating that your models are better to price loans and to shift volume your way?

Well, Arvind, one of the things that we’ve kind of tried to make pretty clear is that, the 70 plus banks and credit unions who tend to originate and hold the primary end of the credit have all done really well through all cycle, all parts of the cycle if you will and have actually performed at or above expectations. So, I don’t think we necessarily need any more than that. Some of them have stated publicly, and we can see it in the data and have shared the aggregate data. So, I think that that’s all a very good thing. But I think a lot of the issue out there really is about what may happen on the next year or two years, and everybody has the right to have a different opinion about that and take actions based on that opinion. So, that’s part of, of course, the challenges is it’s about the future, not about exactly what’s gone on in the last year or two years. And in that sense, that’s why we have sort of said, we want to move toward investor relationships that have a long term approach across through cycle approach toward investing, and that will be in the end, lead to a much stronger platform for Upstart.

Yes. Great. Terrific. Thank you very much.

Thank you.

We’ll go for our next question from Vincent Caintic with Stephens.

Thanks for taking my questions. I have two. First question so on the balance sheet usage. So, I appreciate your comments on that. And if you could talk about your balance sheet strength. So, you’ve got over $900 million in cash, and I guess if you were to leverage that conservative leverage, maybe you could do $2 billion to $3 billion of loan originations to support the business and the interim. And so I was just wondering if we could maybe talk about some of the guardrails or some how you’re thinking about the balance sheet usage? And then relatedly, I think you spoke about in a prior press release about selling some of the loans that were on the balance sheet. If you could talk about, how that performed, I’d see, there’s still about $600 million this quarter, how was the – how did that go? And what was the, I guess the par value? Thank you.

Hey Vince [ph], this is Sanjay. So just to maybe put some parameters around our balance sheet that’s correct. We have sort of the $900 million in restricted and unrestricted cash. I would say we have about probably $400 million of loan equity on the balance sheet, and about $600 million of assets. So maybe $200 million of that is financed – that will I don’t – we don’t have an intention of getting into large amounts of financed loans. So, numbers that you alluded to on your – and I don’t think it would be anything approaching that. I think it would be much more modest. And this is an environment which [Audio Dip] and candidly, it’s not readily available these days at reasonable prices anyway. So, I think of our loan balance sheet sort of flexibility as being denoted in values of maybe a couple of $100 million. With respect to loan transactions, I would say transactions, like I, the main force of gravity on those is, what’s going on with rates in the environment as you’re transacting, and most of the transactions we’ve had have been older vintages. So vintages, that have accumulated maybe in Q1 of this year and six months later, interest rates have gone up. And so to the extent that they have executed below par, and then we’ve indicated that that has created some of the negative fair value pressure in our P&L. It’s really a function of the fact that some of the more seasoned loans have just been impacted by the industry environment this year.

Okay. Thank you for that. I appreciate it. And one question just following up on guidance, just if you could talk about, so the $170 million in revenues, if maybe you can talk about the cadence of that like, are you seeing and improving performance as we go through the quarter and on the contribution margin. So, I’m calculating 59%, so a nice expansion there. Just wondering what would be driving that maybe less marketing expense or more efficiency, if you could just talk about that? Thank you.

Sure. Yes. I guess in terms of the guidance, we’re not really telegraphing any directionality. I would say things are volatile right now and so that’s more of a level than a trend if you will. With respect to the contribution margins, yes, and it’s sort of a bit of what we referenced earlier, which is, when we are in a period of compaction like this. We optimize for in quarter cash generation and candidly, it’s one of the important economic characteristics of the business, which is we can – we’re essentially suffering or sort of telegraphing roughly 50% contraction between the forward guidance and what we did last in Q1. And yet we can, whether that with still guiding to a breakeven EBITDA. And the reason is because; we have quite a bit of control in terms of our ability to set fees. We tend to be in elastic and below optimal fee levels in normal times. And so we can raise them to buffer volume contractions. And as you said, when we have less funding availability, our marketing programs, we tend to sort of keep the more efficient ones and discard the more experimental ones. So as a result, our take rates go up, our acquisition costs tend to go down, and it creates a margin expansion, which in some sense tends to push against the volume contraction. And it allows us to be somewhat resilient as a business model.

Okay. Very helpful. Thanks very much.

And we’ll go next James Faucette with Morgan Stanley.

Thank you very much. And thanks for all the detail and supplemental information. I’m wondering when we look at kind of your expected returns on by quarter, et cetera, is that you’re showing that you expect a pretty significant improvement on the cohort from Q1 2022 versus Q3 and Q4, even though the total or the target gross return is similar or even a little bit lower. Can you talk a little bit about the changes that were made for that Q1 2022 and that you – that are driving your expected return higher versus what was being done in the second half of last year?

Yes. Hey James, this is Sanjay. Sure. I mean the simple version is, you’re seeing the model recalibrating to the changing environment. And in particular, I think starting in, by Q3 of 2021 the delinquency trends in the industry started to rise. And it’s been disproportionately, I say born by the, I would say the less affluent borrowers, if you will. And so our models observe that and react to it and change pricing as that is happening. And so, in some sense, because that trend had happened between Q3 of 2021 and early this year, maybe call it Q1 or Q2 of this year. Our model has been reacting to that adjusting recalibrating. And on top of that, we do what you might think of as a manual overlay, which is we have to make some estimate of what we think the future macro holds, because that’s not something that’s in the training data for our machines. And so in addition to the model, recalibrating to loss trends, as they change, we are making more conservative forward predictions over what the macro will sort of do in the future. And we’re to the point now where I would say our macro accommodation is fairly conservative in terms of what we’re expecting to happen or maybe expecting is the wrong word, what we’re prepared to happen in the macro, given inflation and unemployment, et cetera. And so those are really the two variables that are changing. It’s the models estimate of loss, depending on as a function of the changing actuals and it’s our forward prediction of how to prepare for macro – continued macro volatility.

Got it. And then, when you talk about looking to add committed capital and expanding that range of partnerships and agreements, what’s your expectation for what that’s going to do on cost of capital and what you would need to do if anything, and if there is an impact what you would need to do around fees and those kinds of things, just trying to figure out like what you may have to give up in order to achieve that longer, better or stick your capital, I guess?

Yes, it’s a great question, James. I would say that on the one hand, it will make notionally certainly to a capital provider who’s committing capital forward. There’s cost for that. I think it’ll make capital on the margin more expensive in good times, but maybe on the margin less expensive in times like now, because they’re investing through the full cycle. And the other variable is that as we sort of talked about in some of the other questions, we are quite margin rich. And so we ourselves can trade off economics in the good times for economics in the choppier periods in the next economic cycle such that the investor as whole, and we’re creating more stability for the platform. And so I think to the extent, the committed capital is more expensive in a benign period. We can offset that through our own business model and then make it up when there are down cycles as there inevitably will be. So we view our margins to be lever that we can use to make sure that the investors are stable and the platform is stable, and the borrowers are getting some amount of stability, even though, as you know, our mission is to fundamentally lend to for proportions of the population, which notionally are riskier.

Great. Thank you.

We’ll go next to Nat Schindler of Bank of America.

Yes. Hi guys. I think a lot of my questions have been asked already. But one thing I wanted to go over well, two things. One, you said that you have – you’re going to go out to lenders and you have now a cross cycle vision of your performance. Are we really cross cycle? Are you modelling that this is the bottom, and we’ve turned the corner on kind of the low-end consumer that is contrary to what most of our economists are saying at this point? So, I want to just understand what you mean and whether or not you think that these delinquencies are going to get worse from here or better. Finally, also, I’m a little confused on the back and forth of the balance sheet, no balance sheet, using the balance sheet, not using the balance sheet. One, why this oscillation and two, how much of your, how much do you really think that you were ever going to get to on their balance sheet? I mean, originally you were saying you were going to be only about 5% and that’s for experimental purposes. I think in Q1, you got up to 15 and you said you would go down from there. And while that was experimental with auto anyways. And now you’re saying you’re going to go onto the balance sheet again. What’s kind of level do you think makes sense? One final question on top of that, I’m sorry for the three, but who are these investors that you haven’t talked to? Who are you going out to kind of increase your supply? Just are they people that don’t do personal loans? Are they people that are new to this market who is out there that you are trying to evangelize the product to on the supply side? Thanks.

Hey, Nat. It’s Sanjay. I’ll take your first question. And then, Dave and I will rotate on the last two. The first question was about, do we really think we’re at past the bottom of the cycle? I think in a short word, no. But I’ll just give you overview on a couple of different nuances. So first of all, I do think that what’s happened to date while in the aggregate. I think that maybe there’s a view that it hasn’t been too bad to date and there’s more to come. I think the picture is sort of a little bit different in a nuance way depending where you are in the credit spectrum. I mean, if you look at the industry data, if you’re an affluent borrower and you talk about like, what has been the best sort of credit performance in the last year, sort of mid-2021, and where are you compared to there? You’re up – mildly, you’re up 30% and you’re still below pre COVID numbers. If you are on the less affluent side of the spectrum, you are up much more than that in your well pass, where you were pre COVID. So, I think that the timing of all this is a little bit different. I think that the less affluent side of the spectrum peaked a little bit sooner and has come up a little bit sooner and maybe prime borrowers are still sort of in that schedule somewhere. So – and I think the second component is we’ve largely, to us, it’s not just the – it’s the rate of change of things. And the very sudden changes in the delinquency trends. In our core borrower we’ve sort of cut up to, and we’re making significant conservative assumptions about the future.…

Yes, sure. Nat asked, I don’t know exactly how to put it, what’s with the back and forth on balance sheet usage is maybe the short version of it. But Nat, look, I just say as a company I founded – co-founded 10 plus years ago, the thing that’s made us successful over the years is being nimble and thoughtful and responsive when needed by the market. And we certainly have a long-term view that we are a marketplace business, meaning to bring lenders and investors together with consumers borrowers on the other side. And that’s how we view ourselves long term. Having said that, we came to the conclusion that having sort of a litmus test that thou shalt [ph] not use the balance sheet at all, doesn’t make sense, particularly when you see reaction to the supply side of our business happen in ways that almost a contrary to facts to us, meaning credits generally performing well. And yet for reasons, that are obviously be many of which are beyond our control. Lenders or investors take decisions that they take. So I just think in the interest of our shareholders and everybody else, it’s proven for us to use our balance sheet wisely. We don’t intend to become a large balance sheet lender, but at the same time we think it’s important to stay to the community out there that we we’re going to do the right things for the business. And we don’t believe that it makes sense to have a sort of iron cloud witness test that thou shalt not use your balance sheet in the marketplace. And that’s the conclusion we came to. We think it really is, as we’ve said, numerous times now, a transitional step toward a place where we have committed third party capital. And that’s what we think also is represents a significant chance to upgrade our business structure. And so, put those altogether and we think this is the right step forward for Upstart. It’s going to be part of building a much larger, a much stronger Upstart over time.

And we will go next to David Chiaverini with Wedbush Securities.

Hi, thanks for taking the questions. The first question is on the take rate and it makes sense to increase the take rate in this environment. I was curious how high should we expect the take rate to go over the next couple quarters?

Yes. Hi, David, it’s Sanjay. I think maybe one we’re putting this is, given the guidance we’ve put out for Q3, you might imagine that we’re doing all that we can to ensure that our P&L remains resilient.

Got it. And then somewhat similar question on originations for the third quarter, I guess zooming out back to the second quarter. Are you able to share what the June origination number was and how that compares to July?

Yes, we’re not breaking out specific months, David. I would just – I would say that the trend right now is volatile. So there’s no real directionality in our numbers with respect to June versus July.

Got it. And then quickly on the buyback. Can you talk about your appetite from here?

Sure. David, well, as you know, we have Board authorization to go up to $400 million of which we’ve used $150 million. I mean, it’s sort of an ongoing equation between where the price is versus what we think is fair value. And now of course, what other sources and uses of cash, or I guess, uses in particular we might have. And so there’s always opportunities whether it’s buying back the stock and reducing the dilution or looking at some of the convertibles in the market that are ours or buying loans, which as Dave said, we think can have a very lucrative return right now. So I would just say that we’re monitoring that on an ongoing basis and we’re certainly interested in using – making efficient use of our cash balance on behalf of the shareholders.

Thanks very much.

Thank you, David. And now I will turn the call over to Dave Girouard for any additional or closing remarks.

Thanks all for being with us today. Sanjay and I just want to make clear we’re not happy with our results. We’re not a company that likes to have a declining revenue from one quarter to the next. But we are – we feel doing the right things to make the company as strong and as powerful as it can be in the future. We are as committed as ever to the mission of improving access to credit for those who deserve it. And we are making steps to make the company stronger and better and do anticipate we’ll be back on a growth track. So we appreciate all them sticking with us through this. And we’re going to get back to work at making Upstart the great company that it is. And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.