Earnings Labs

Urban Outfitters, Inc. (URBN)

Q4 2019 Earnings Call· Tue, Mar 5, 2019

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Urban Outfitters' Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2019 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session and instructions will follow at that time. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded. I would now like to introduce Oona McCullough, Director of Investor Relations. Ms. McCullough, you may begin.

Oona McCullough

Analyst

Good afternoon and welcome to the URBN fourth quarter fiscal 2019 conference call. Earlier this afternoon, the company issued a press release outlining the financial and operating results for the 3 and 12 months period ending January 31, 2019. The following discussions may include forward-looking statements. Please note that actual results may differ materially from those statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from projected results is contained in the company's filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. To find disclosures and reconciliations of non-GAAP measures that we use when discussing our financial results, please refer to our earnings release in our Investor Relations section of our website. We will begin today's call with Frank Conforti, our Chief Financial Officer, who will provide financial highlights for the fourth quarter. Richard Hayne, our Chief Executive Officer, will then provide more detail by brand and comment on our broader strategic initiatives. Following that, we will be pleased to address your questions. As usual, the text of today's conference call will be posted to our corporate website at www.urbn.com.

Frank Conforti

Analyst

Thank you, Oona, and good afternoon, everyone. I will start my prepared commentary discussing our recently completed fiscal 2019 fourth quarter results versus the prior comparable quarter. Then I will share some of our thoughts concerning the first quarter and full year fiscal 2020. Total company, our URBN sales for the fourth quarter increased by 4%. This resulted from a 3% URBN Retail segment comp increase, 3% growth in URBN Wholesale sales and $6 million in noncomp sales. Foreign currency translation had a negative impact of approximately 50 basis points on the quarter. Within our URBN Retail segment comp, the digital channel continued to lead the way, posting a double-digit sales increase. Digital growth was driven by increased sessions and conversion rate, while average order value and units per transaction were down for the quarter. The store channel recorded a negative comp, which was the first time this year. Negative comp store sales resulted from a lower number of transactions, units per transaction and average unit selling price. Traffic was negative in North America and Europe, with Europe experiencing more significant traffic challenges. By brand, our Retail segment comp grew by 4% at both Free People and Urban Outfitters and by 2% at the Anthropologie Group. This performance marks the sixth straight quarter each of our brand posted positive Retail segment comps. Our URBN Retail segment comp was the strongest in November, with December and January turning negative. During the quarter, we opened 4 new locations, including 3 new Free People stores and 1 Urban Outfitters store. We also closed 7 stores in the quarter, 4 Urban Outfitters, 2 Free People and 1 Anthropologie. Our URBN Wholesale segment sales grew 3% for the quarter. This growth was driven by Anthropologie's home wholesale business. Free People wholesale revenues were slightly positive…

Richard Hayne

Analyst

Thanks, Frank, and good afternoon, everyone. Today, I'll speak to our fourth quarter results, talk about the macro environment and then finish with some commentary regarding current business trends. Let me begin with a review of our fourth quarter. Overall, URBN delivered a very good quarter. Total company comparable Retail segment sales increased by 3%, and all 3 brands posted record sales. The digital channel drove much of this increase, with digital penetration of total Retail segment sales running well above 40% for the quarter. Sales gains were driven with less reliance on promotions. We delivered record low markdown rates by using our speed-to-market capabilities combined with tight inventory control. We also leveraged expenses. Putting these together, we produced outstanding operating margin expansion, which contributed to record earnings per share. All 3 brands entered the quarter confidently. Inventories were clean and well controlled. Comp sales in November were up nicely, similar to the trends established in the first 9 months of FY '19. All brands produced record sales on both Black Friday and Cyber Monday. In North America, Retail segment demand moderated in December and then dropped again in January as store traffic turned negative. So what began as a strong quarter of an exceedingly strong year ended on a weak note. I'll now provide some color on fourth quarter results for each brand, starting with Urban Outfitters. The Urban Outfitters brand delivered a positive 4% Retail segment comp for the fourth quarter. Geographic trends diverged, with North America delivering nicely positive comps, while Europe experienced a Brexit-induced slowdown in store traffic and slightly negative comps. Both geographies produced double-digit growth on in-line sales, offset by weaker trends in stores. In North America, all but one product category created positive comps with outsized strength with women's apparel, men's and women's…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Kimberly Greenberger with Morgan Stanley.

Kimberly Greenberger

Analyst

Great, thank you so much. My question is for Dick on product, but I just wanted to clarify with Frank. Frank, did you offer any full year 2019 metrics, let's say, outside of CapEx? I may have missed them, if I did. But Dick, my question on product is I'm - it sounds like you feel relatively mixed about the execution here heading into spring. It sounds like you got some winners and some things that are not selling quite as well. I'm wondering if you can just expand on your comments and talk about how you see the path as we progress from Q1 into Q2 and how you see the business potentially developing.

Richard Hayne

Analyst

Okay. I'm pleased to do that, Kimberly. You're right, there's mixed reaction to our assortments. I think that we have plenty of winners and we're getting very, very good reads. But I think if you look across all the brands, I think the brand leaders will agree with me that probably we offered some of the spring assortment a little too early. And now that's really easy to say. In retrospect, I've been in this game a pretty long time and each spring is a little bit different and sometimes springs come early, sometimes springs come late. I think the spring this year is particularly late. As I think I said in my prepared comments, the weather across the country has been fairly negative in terms of inducing people to be interested in spring product. It's been cold and wet, particularly in California. I don't want to use that as an excuse. Me, I hate to use weather, but I think in this case, there is some element of that. But I think all the brand leaders agree, we own it, and I think we were betting on an earlier adoption of spring than has come to be. Having said that, we are still in a bottom cycle, and that bottom cycle is very strong, very powerful. I'm 100% convinced there's plenty of fashion newness out there to drive positive comps. And I'm even more excited by the fact that working with the production teams, the brands have increased their speed to market, meaning they can react and get new product in much faster. As a matter of fact, as we sit here today, about more than 50% of our apparel product is not yet ordered for the month of May. So we feel very good about the go forward. We feel pretty confident that the weather will turn and our product will be much more on target and the customers will respond better.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Lorraine Hutchinson with Bank of America.

Lorraine Hutchinson

Analyst

Thank you. Good afternoon. Can you diagnose the first quarter weakness by brand? And do you think - since you have over half of your May apparel product yet to be ordered, do you think you might be able to get back into a position to comp positively by the second quarter?

Richard Hayne

Analyst

Hi Lorraine. This is Dick again. I'll just give you a general feedback. The Free People brand is still seeing positive results in their apparel - reaction to their apparel assortments. The other 2 brands are not. We have seen more recently the overall sales becoming stronger. So we are very encouraged by that. And I will say - I was talking to the folks earlier today and I said, I would be very disappointed if we didn't have positive comps for the first half. Now that's not to say that I'm guaranteeing it, and I believe it's there to be had. I know they believe it's there to be had. They're working hard to maneuver the assortment so that we indeed will. I think that the first quarter is a different issue, given the fact that February has been soft or was soft and given the Easter shift, it will hurt March. And so we're reasonably reliant on April as the month that would pull out a positive comp. I think that's going to be more difficult to do, but I'm pretty confident the first half, we will be able to show positive comps.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Adrienne Yih with Wolfe Research.

Adrienne Yih

Analyst · Wolfe Research.

Yes. Good afternoon, and thanks for taking my question. Dick, can you talk about how you feel the different age categories actually go about adopting the fashion? I know Urban is younger, and so they tend to experiment earlier. Are you seeing a delay in that adoption at Anthropologie? And then secondarily, there was a recent launch of a competitor of rent and return. And so I'm just wondering how you think about alternative business models such as that?

Richard Hayne

Analyst · Wolfe Research.

Sure. I'll be glad to take that. I'm not sure it's as age-driven as it is a certain type of customer. I do think, in general, the Urban and Free People customers are a little bit quicker to adopt fashion, but I don't think it's necessarily because the Anthropologie customer doesn't want to adopt new fashion. I think they're much more satisfied with a basic look that they enjoy. It's not as if they want to go out and chase every new trend. So I think it's different, but I wouldn't necessarily put it on adoption of fashion. As to new competitors coming along, well, they always have and I'm sure they will and the customer definitely is evolving. And I think that there's no question that the customer is evolving and becoming more digitally integrated, I guess, is a way to put it. I think the customer is discovering their brands and most of their products online and mostly through social media. And they want quick access to the product and they want to be rewarded for their loyalty. Having said that, we are always trying to develop new ideas and we make more and more investments in the digital space and new ways to engage her. That includes things like our marketplace endeavor and things like payment with Afterpay. So I think, yes, we're seeing a lot of experimentation. I would expect that. I would expect it to continue and we are doing the same.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Paul Lejuez with Citigroup.

Paul Lejuez

Analyst

Hey guys. Just curious, are you now operating under the assumption that store comps will stay negative throughout the year and any comp upside will be driven by digital? Or do you think stores can comp positive again? And I guess, I'm also curious about what's your view for what the promotional environment looks like this year? What's the - what sort of conditions are you going to be playing under?

Richard Hayne

Analyst

Yeah, Paul, good question. I think the stores we're planning to be either flat or slightly negative, slight is the keyword there, for the year. And definitely, digital - in combination with digital produce positive comps. And we are currently projecting somewhere in mid-single. As to promotional activity, I think it's pretty high right now for the time of year. I think some retailers probably got caught with a bit too much inventory that they brought in because of the - of all the political tariffs, et cetera, going on. And I think they have a little bit extra, so they're trying to get rid some of that. And I also think February has probably been reasonably weak for many retailers and the retailers are reacting. Whether will remain this promotional over the next, let's say, 6 to 9 months. I can't really tell you. It depends where - how the season progresses. I'm quite confident that come holiday next year, it's going to be brutally promotional again. It is every year. It gets more and more promotional. I think each and every year that I have been around, and the only time that's probably going to show - subside will be when a lot more stores go out of business and the competition is lessened.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Marni Shapiro with The Retail Tracker.

Marni Shapiro

Analyst · The Retail Tracker.

Hey, everybody. And best of luck with the rest of the spring, in case I forget to say anything. Could you talk a little bit about - two questions. One, I guess, with the weakness across the board, across all the brands online and in stores, and was it more outsized in Europe than here? And then if you could also just talk or touch on the intimate business at Urban Outfitters, seems to be, I don't want to say, toned down, but doesn't seem to be as important. I'm curious if that's a reflection of a trend or because apparel has become so much more important there?

Richard Hayne

Analyst · The Retail Tracker.

Okay, Marni, I'm going to let some other folks do some talking here. I hope you don't mind. So Trish, you want to take some of that question?

Trish Donnelly

Analyst · The Retail Tracker.

Sure. I can - hey, Marni, I can take the intimates business. What we're seeing now is lounge is downtrending. However we are making up all of that volume and a total resurgence in the bra business. So we're - that's all part of the intimates world. So we're really excited to see some new attributes in bras, where - again, it's the highest category within intimates. So feeling really positive about that as we go - as we move through spring.

Richard Hayne

Analyst · The Retail Tracker.

And I'm going to let Andrew talk about his favorite subject, Europe.

Andrew Carnie

Analyst · The Retail Tracker.

Marni, I'll take the Europe call. So as Dick mentioned, we continue to deliver positive comps in Europe. So I'm particularly pleased with Q4, given store footfall did slightly decline, but we also had the opportunity to walk away from a lot of promotions, where Anthropologie in Europe shows the strength of our assortment execution potential. I think I've commented on the last 3 calls that we have ambitious plans for Anthropologie across Europe. So in the next 2 years, we plan to open 20-plus stores and group digitally across Europe. This year, we plan to open at least 6 in Europe and the U.K. And we just recently opened our first store in Barcelona. And then I'm heading to Tel Aviv in just under 2 weeks to open in Israel. And then finally, we're seeing actually Brexit is a good topic that we talk a lot about within URBN. With Anthropologie, what we're seeing is an opportunity, because we want to grow and we want to grow rapidly. And what we're doing is we're negotiating better commercial terms, especially on property deals, which is enabling our rapid growth. So I think in sum, in Anthropologie, it's actually good news in Europe right now.

Richard Hayne

Analyst · The Retail Tracker.

Okay, Marni. But I want to just make sure everybody is clear. Where we are in this very point in time as March 29 approaches, I would say the commercial and political tone in all of Europe is basically a mess, and there is tremendous uncertainty about what's going to happen with Brexit. Andrew is 100% correct. It's really a time of opportunity, because landlords are responding to the uncertainty and giving some deals that we probably wouldn't have had an opportunity to make a few years back. And - but I want to make sure everybody knows that the traffic across the high streets is off considerably, and it's definitely as a result of Brexit. We think that it's temporary. We think that in the next 3 to 6 months maximum, the Brexit quagmire will be resolved, but we don't have any better crystal ball than anybody else out there.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Mark Altschwager with Robert W. Baird.

Drew North

Analyst

Great. This is Drew North on for Mark. As it relates to the wholesale business, how should we think about the sales contribution in 2020? Are we past the pullback in off-price sales at Free People? Or is there going to be continued pullback in 2020? And then how can we think about the other growth opportunities like Anthro home or the Urban Outfitters wholesale opportunity?

Richard Hayne

Analyst

Okay, Drew, this is Dick. I'll try to answer the question. You read or heard no doubt that Free People wholesale was flat for the Q4 or almost flat. It was slightly positive, and that is a result of full-price selling being up about mid-double digits and off-price sales being down considerably, and that was planned. We think for Q1, wholesale sales at Free People will be up again in mid-single digits. And we believe that, that will be slightly offset by a reduction in off price, but certainly not wholly. Did I say double-digit?

Frank Conforti

Analyst

You did.

Richard Hayne

Analyst

I caught myself. So single - mid-single digits, it was upward Q4. Free People...

Frank Conforti

Analyst

Reg price sales are up mid-single digits in the fourth quarter. I think we would anticipate that being similar through the course of this upcoming year, but would be abated a little bit by lower closeout sales as we continue to try and press more about right price business, which will have a favorable impact obviously on our operating profit margins. Additionally, with the contribution of Anthropologie and now the Urban Outfitters brand getting into the Wholesale segment, we think total URBN wholesale sales would come in roughly around probably 8% to 10% for the year, with about half of that being driven by Free People and then Anthropologie and then followed by Urban Outfitters in that order of contribution.

Richard Hayne

Analyst

Yes. So you can see that Free People off price sales will be down considerably, given the fact that their inventory currently is 40% less than it was the prior year. So that augers well since a substantial part of that 40% reduction is what would have been off price.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Simeon Siegel with Nomura Instinet.

Simeon Siegel

Analyst

Thanks. Hey, guys. Good afternoon. Could you speak to your retrodation for AUR and just online AUP this year just in light of the down quarter? And then, Frank, how flexible is the 150 bps of gross margin? Is there a range based on your expected comp range? Or is that number preset?

Frank Conforti

Analyst

I'll take the latter question on the 150 basis points gross profit margin. So the answer is, of course, that's very flexible. And that's forecasted based on the possibility of us coming in low single-digit negative comp. Obviously, we have the opportunity to improve off of that as well as the level of markdowns we can improve upon. What that - again, I'm hoping that, that's a conservative number. And the lion's share of what's driving that 150 basis point decline would be markdowns, right? So if you're thinking about the fact that we came into the quarter with our inventory bought consistent to where we were trading in the fourth quarter at a plus 3 Retail segment comp, obviously with February softening, we're going to need additional markdowns in order to clear through some of that product in order to keep fresh receipts coming in and protect the back half of the quarter as well as the second quarter. And if the negative comp does come in for - in the first quarter, obviously, we would delever certain expenses such as store occupancy, delivery and logistics expense as well.

Richard Hayne

Analyst

Simeon, as to your question on AUR, we planned AUR up. We are delivering positive AUR in the first quarter. But since, as Frank just said, if sales continue to be soft and markdowns increase, that could erode the AUR ending number. And so I can't give you an answer. All I can tell you is it was planned up, they delivered up, and we'll see what happens as a result.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Dana Telsey with Telsey Advisory Group.

Dana Telsey

Analyst

Good afternoon, everyone. As you think about 2019 and obviously the way it's starting out, I think 2019 was the year of some strategic investments whether it's going to be movement to furnish your 3PL and how sort of the European DC and the consolidation of the U.K. offices, any changes to this? And how you're thinking about SG&A in the cadence as we move through the year?

Frank Conforti

Analyst

Hi Dana, this is Frank, and thank you for your question. So I would say in order to give guidance, specifically for the SG&A rate for the year, that's going to be tough to do right now, obviously due to the change that we had in our sales trends here early in the first quarter. As you know, there is a significant amount of our SG&A that is variable in nature, things like direct selling, payroll, direct marketing and incentive compensation. So it's hard to give a forecast for the year. We currently are forecasting the first quarter to be approximately 3%. With that being said, you're absolutely correct. And as always, you're paying attention. We do have some investment coming in for the year, which will elevate our SG&A expense by a couple of hundred basis points in the back half of the year. And just to name a few that you touched on, we are looking and have been in the process of hiring local talent, which will sit in the China market to support our go-forward strategy and growth plans in that market for all 3 of our brands going forward. You're correct that we are looking to transition from a 3PL provider for our furniture and non-sortable business to operating that operation in-house. That is planned for, I would call it, early fall of this year. We think that absolutely will provide for a better customer experience and leverage going forward. But obviously, there'll be some transition-related expenses to that and to ensure that we are meeting the customer service expectations during that transition. We are continuing to invest in technology around digital sales platform and functionality. And also, as you mentioned, we are looking to transition from multiple offices in Europe right now. We have…

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Janet Kloppenburg with JJK Research.

Janet Kloppenburg

Analyst

Hi, everybody. Can you hear me?

Richard Hayne

Analyst

Yes, we can hear you.

Janet Kloppenburg

Analyst

Great. Thank you. I was just wondering, Dick, if you could talk a little bit about the inventory content, and in other words, perhaps you need more bottoms, less dresses, tops, maybe if you could talk a little bit about trends you're seeing there. We're also hearing that women's apparel is soft more so than men's. We're actually hearing good things about men's, and I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about that. I think you said Free People was positive. So perhaps you're bucking the trend on women's apparel, but I'd love to hear about that. And any inventory reduction efforts that you might have underway to constrain further gross margin erosion in the second quarter?

Richard Hayne

Analyst

Well, Janet, I'll try my best. I think that if you asked me what I'm excited about, I would say in terms of women's apparel, I would say just about off every iteration of bottoms, I think, has tremendous potential right now and is working. I think we have a reasonable amount. I think maybe there is a - we could have maybe one more or so weeks of supply in some of the brands. But I think in general, we have a reasonable assortment. I'm also excited about dresses and the dress category, and I think it's going to do reasonably well for the spring/summer season. I don't think some quantity issue of dresses. I think the merchants have gotten a better indication of what she's going to want, and they're making sure that they reorder into those kinds of things and don't order the kinds of things that they're saying they don't want. So it's not that we don't have enough dresses. It's probably the assortment just isn't quite where we would like it to be. I also think there's a lot of opportunity for woven blouses and all sorts of athletic-inspired clothing, including obviously Free People Movement. I like prints on top and bottom. And so I think that in some cases, we don't have enough penetration of prints. In some cases, we do. So I don't think there is any one thing in any one of the brands. As I said earlier on, I think Free People has done the best job of getting the assortment as correct. I still know that Sheila believes that there is some mistakes that she made earlier on and is in the process of correcting those. But in general, I think there's plenty of opportunity to have fashion that the customer responds to in a way that would drive positive comps. As for men's, men's held up a little bit better. In the last couple of weeks, we've seen a dip in men's. I think it's more about some delivery issues than it is demand. So I think this is much more about women's product. And again, I think there is an element of the weather that plays into that. I just don't think she is as interested in it. An example of that would be in the women's area, we're still seeing double - very strong double-digit gains in our jacket and outerwear classes, and that's a sure sign that she is still responding to fall/winter-type products, because literally, it's freezing outside. So that's what we see.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from the line of Kate Fitzsimons with RBC Capital Markets.

Kate Fitzsimons

Analyst

Yes. Hi. Thank you for taking my question. I guess, quickly on Anthropologie, can you just speak to where we are in terms of own brand penetration of that brand? And how we should think about IMU trending at Anthro in 2019, especially, in light of the changes you are making in the next few months of the assortments? And then secondly, Dick, just on Urban Outfitters, if you could just speak to maybe some of the trends that you're seeing on some of the more national brands or logo product and just how higher level we should think about sustainability of the '90s more logo trend cycle that we're seeing right now? Thank you.

Hillary Super

Analyst

Hi, it's Hillary. Okay. So for own brand penetration, we are sitting right north of 50% or so and continuing to build. In terms of IMU, we continue to have opportunity for improvement in the first half, and then we'll start to anniversary ourself in the second half. And then in terms of trends, I would just say the thing that I'm most excited about is we've recently seen our dresses turn on, which we know is heritage business for our brand and gives us a lot of things to build on going into the first half of the year.

Trish Donnelly

Analyst

And, hi Kate. In the Urban brand, I can speak to national brands and brand development in women's. As you know, third-party brands have always been an important part of our mix and our assortment. And if we take the men's side, it's a pretty significant penetration. So we're still seeing national brands is a big part of our total business. However, what the men's team has done is also really finely curated some emerging brands, which collectively are becoming more and more meaningful to the business. So we - in the men's world, we really like where our brands are headed, not only national, but emerging and up and coming. So that feels really great and our customer is responding to that. On the women's side, the branded penetration has never been all that significant. So we will most likely maintain the current penetration of branded in women. And again, that will be a much smaller mix, national brands and again some emerging brands, which is really where the women's team is focused for 2019.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Ike Boruchow with Wells Fargo.

Lauren Frasch

Analyst · Wells Fargo.

Hi. This is Lauren Frasch on for Ike. I just have a quick question. Which brands and categories are driving the majority of that traffic and markdown pressure you're seeing quarter-to-date? Or is it more broad-based. Also as a quick follow-up, it sounds like you're hopeful that comps can inflect after Q1 and rest of the year. If that's the case, would you say that Q1 is the only quarter this year that you could expect to see that 150 basis point range of gross margin decline?

Richard Hayne

Analyst · Wells Fargo.

Lynn, I can't answer all the things. I think you can read what we put out. And certainly, it's not subtle, the apparel area is the one that is suffering the most right now. Actually, we've seen a lot of strength in a number of the categories. Home is doing quite well as is beauty and shoes. So we're not - it's not an across-the-board drop in sales, but apparel has to kick in. And again, I think it's not kicked in partly because of weather and partly because of our assortment. It may have some other influences like tax rebates that have been talked about, those sorts of things. But then you'd ask, well, why is - why are home and shoes and beauty doing so well, and that would be a good question. And so I would say that it's mostly weather and it's mostly our assortment. Given that and given the fact we can make such a change in a fairly short period of time, I'm very confident that we can turn this into a positive situation going forward. That's me being confident. I can't promise it. I don't know

Frank Conforti

Analyst · Wells Fargo.

Lynn, this is Frank. Just on your commentary regarding - or your question regarding margin and the 150, yes, that number is specific to Q1 and the rift in the first quarter, as Dick just mentioned. Obviously, we have done a great job around inventory discipline and our speed-to-market initiative. So we have a significant amount of open-to-buy open in the second quarter, and we have definitely given ourselves the opportunity to have an inflection point. And if we were to see that inflection point move back into positive comp territory, there's absolutely margin improvement opportunity in Q2 and going forward. As previously has been discussed, I think the largest opportunity sits with Anthropologie around their markdown rate. But I would say, all 3 brands have been working hard as well as our production and sourcing team on showing some IMU opportunity for the course of the year as well. So there is definitely an inflection point opportunity from a top line perspective in the second quarter based on the amount of open-to-buy that we have and it fixes some of the read that we've gotten into the business. And then that would definitely correspond with some margin rate opportunity for the second quarter and going forward for the remainder of the year.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Susan Anderson with B. Riley FBR.

Susan Anderson

Analyst

Hi, thanks for taking my question. I guess, maybe just to dig in a little bit more on the quarter-to-date comp, I don't know if there's any differences. I think there has been a little bit of warm weather in the South that you saw any differences in apparel performance within maybe some parts of the countries that have been warmer. And then also if you could just comment on AUC and then IMU for all of the brands this year?

Richard Hayne

Analyst

I think the only place that has experienced warmer weather is Florida, and there one of our biggest cities, as you would imagine, is Miami. And Miami is an entry point. And like I said in my prepared comments, we've seen a particularly large drop in traffic by international tourists using international credit cards to make their purchases. So I think that's a little distorting. Some of the stores in Florida are doing quite fine. Some of them less fine. So I don't think there's a big pattern there. But I think most of the country is under the deep freeze, and certainly, Minneapolis is today, if anybody up there in Minneapolis on this call. So I think that - again, part weather, part our assortment. Fortunately, the weather probably will change and definitely our assortment will change.

Frank Conforti

Analyst

And Susan, just to answer your question on AUC. We specifically don't talk about AUC, because we transition our product so much from season-to-season and continue to bring in new product styles, fashion - or excuse me, fabrics. And - but what I would say is each of the brands right now believe they have IMU opportunities. So they do believe they all have initial markup opportunity based on how we're planning the year itself out. So again, not specifically to AUC, but relative to an initial markup new opportunity, which each of the brands have that opportunity for the course of this year.

Operator

Operator

Our next question is from Brian Nagel with Oppenheimer.

Brian Nagel

Analyst

Hi. Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. A lot of us have asked questions on the sales trends. Sorry, I apologize for kind of beating this. But going back to your comments you made in your prepared remarks just on the macro environment, clearly, the - for a lot of retailers, macro environment has been quite fluid in the last few months, and I recognize it's a short amount of time, weather is a factor too, but - and there is a lot of factors, to say, contribute to the macro environment. But as we move past things such as the pronounced market - financial market volatility in mid-December and January and the government shutdown in January, as we move past those elements, did you begin to see a strengthening in consumer response within the domestic business?

Richard Hayne

Analyst

Okay. So yes, you're right that the government shutdown had a market impact on consumer sentiment as it was measured. And certainly, January wasn't particularly strong and maybe it had a carryover effect into February. But we did not see - after the government shutdown was over, we didn't see the immediate lift in sales. February was actually a little bit worse than January. So I still think that it's weather, because February's weather has been much more severe than January's. And January really wasn't all that aberrant. So again, I think there could be a lot of different factors, but I'll come back to our assortments and weather.

Operator

Operator

Our last question comes from the line of John Morris with D.A. Davidson.

John Morris

Analyst

Oh, under the wire. So Dick, kind of a bigger picture follow-up to some of the Anthropologie questions. So it's an Anthropologie type question and it's bigger picture, that why I'm directing at you, although certainly welcome Hillary's input as well. The opportunity with Anthro, you've had such a nice round of improvement here in Anthro so far. And I'm wondering if you look relative to realistic margin history or margin goals, not getting specific understand, what - baseball analogy, what inning are we in so far for Anthro early stages, very early? Maybe you can categorize that. And then, Frank, apologies if I misheard some of it. But on freight and labor - the impact from freight and labor in terms of the outlook, I assume that's baked into your qualitative assumptions. But wondering if you're seeing any relief, particularly in freights as you look - freight contracts as you look as the year progresses? And then the home category at Anthro, ex wholesale, not including the wholesale portion, how is that doing for you guys? Thanks.

Richard Hayne

Analyst

Hey John, John, please take the call. I think in terms of Anthropologie versus historical data, I think that their IMU is perfectly fine. It's probably even little higher than the historic average. Where they actually have considerable opportunity is in the markdown area. They have been making huge strides in bringing down their markdowns and more accurately projecting demand and controlling inventories. I think they know they have a couple - maybe 100 basis points more to go. We would love to see the markdown rate at all of our brands be consistently under the 10% mark. And if it gets even lower than that, that would be great. And Anthropologie was indeed under 10% for a number of quarters not so many years ago. So I think they can get back there. And I think we're on our way to doing it. In terms of innings, that's a tough one. I'm assuming we're playing baseball and that there are 9. So I would say we're probably halfway there. And I know you can't be halfway in 9, but...

Frank Conforti

Analyst

And I would just say as it relates to freight, I think we, like most of the other retailers out there, have seen inbound freight pressure with some of the carriers. That being said, that is baked into what I call that is IMU opportunity for each of our brands. So despite some of those pressures, we do believe we have IMU opportunity at each of our brands despite some of the freight pressures that we have seen, quite frankly, last year and coming into this year as well.

Richard Hayne

Analyst

I think that concludes the question-and-answer session. I appreciate your being with us on this call, and we look forward to being back with you in about 3 months. Thank you

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference call. You may now disconnect.