Eric Long
President and CEO
Yes, Shneur. This is Eric. Our focus is not on the slowdown or changing conditions in trunk lines. It’s actually looking at the wells, looking at the major path sites, looking at the regional application. So, as Matt pointed out and in the prepared remarks, when you have these steep shale declines from when new drilling activity ceases, you’ll see an 18 to 24 to 30-month period of significant decline and then wells that have been up and operational for three years, four years, five years; maybe, they’re not making 5,000 barrels of oil and 20 million cubic feet a day anymore. Maybe, they’re making 500 barrels a day and they’re making about 1 million or 1.5 million cubic feet of gas. And you’ve seen the decline rates on those types of wells change from 70%, 80%, 90% to 15%, 20%. So, what we see going on is as new activity – new drilling activity ceases, demand for new compression will slow. So that’s where historically a lot of the growth in our industry has come, are in periods where you’ve seen dramatic increases in rig counts. If you go back post Katrina and Rita in the 2005, 2006, 2007 range, and you go back after the financial meltdown of 2008, and you saw broken activities in 2010, 2011 and 2012 on into 2013 and in part of the way through 2014, a lot of growth, a lot of demand. And then in times like we’re having now, the new activity slows down, people need cash flow, people try to maintain production as much as they can, but for that short period of curtailment. and now, what you’re seeing is the flush production drops quickly. And then that other component in relative steady-state continues. So, there’s two phenomenon that go on, you see a decline in volume, but you also see decline in pressure. So that’s where the compression of horsepower comes in, where as the pressures decline, you got to suck harder to get that gas out of the spare tire of the bicycle, so to speak. So, when volumes decline and pressures decline, you might actually see flat to slightly increasing levels of compression of horsepower. Pressures decline, volumes up, any more, volumes up pressures down. Can’t really, you may need some more. And then when pressures are down and volumes are down, you may stay flat, you may slightly increase. So that’s really what we’re trying to speak to is just the fundamentals of when new activity slows down is that you’ve got to suck harder to maintain the existing level of production throughput as the pressures start to decline.