Eric Long
Analyst · RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead. Your line is open
Great question, TJ. The first thing, when we looked at 2023, we contemplated basically de minimis, if any, growth CapEx in dry gas basins. Everything is associated gas, a lot in the Permian, Delaware, to a lesser degree, a little bit down in the Eagle Ford and then some stuff up in the Mid-Continent, all of which tend to be oily plays. We follow incremental activity. We've seen rig count declining up in the Haynesville and visiting with our producers that we have out there. It appears that there indeed is a slowdown based on commodity pricing. We have an established long-term footprint since the formation of the company up in Appalachia, which has then also expanded in with the other shale developments that you've seen outside of the Marcellus proper. That area has been, from a new growth activity, relatively slow for a few years because you don't have enough pipeline takeaway capacity. So folks that have firm transportation in the area continue to kind of offset decline. We've actually been installing additional stages of compression to continue to help boost and offset the need for either decline in production or drilling new wells. So again, we came into 2023 not contemplating growth in the dry gas areas. I think that has held to be true. And when you look at the spot prices for crude oil, you look at the bottlenecks you've got with takeaway capacity for natural gas; the basis differential is pretty low on gas prices coming out of the Permian and the Delaware as well. So where people are making their money, of course, is on the oil side. We're involved with the gas lift process. People don't want to flare anymore. They would -- so even if there's minimal value associated with the residual process dry gas stream coming out of the Permian, Delaware, people want to be ESG compliant. People want to make some spreads on some of the liquids on the propanes and butanes, et cetera, that are coming out. So bottom line is no change in our outlook for 2023. Our demand signals are extremely strong. And in fact, to the extent that the supply chain would allow for even more compression horsepower, the demand is there. So I think we're all in a unique spot that those of us that have financial resources can continue to promulgate growth CapEx. And again, TJ, we don't see any impact coming out of the dry gas side for us in 2023 and well on into 2024 as well.