Earnings Labs

Valaris Limited (VAL)

Q3 2025 Earnings Call· Fri, Oct 31, 2025

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Valaris Third Quarter 2025 Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please also note today's event is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference call over to Nick Georgas, Vice President, Treasurer and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Nick Georgas

Analyst

Welcome, everyone, to the Valaris Third Quarter 2025 Conference Call. With me today are President and CEO, Anton Dibowitz; Senior Vice President and CFO, Chris Weber; Senior Vice President and CCO, Matt Lyne; and other members of our executive management team. We issued our press release, which is available on our website at valaris.com. Any comments we make today about expectations are forward-looking statements and are subject to risks and uncertainties. Many factors could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations. Please refer to our press release and SEC filings on our website that define forward-looking statements and list risk factors and other events that could impact future results. Also, please note that the company undertakes no duty to update forward-looking statements. During this call, we will refer to GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. Please see the press release on our website for additional information and required reconciliations. Last week, we issued our most recent fleet status report, which provides details on our rig fleet, including new contract awards. Now I'll turn the call over to Anton Dibowitz, President and CEO.

Anton Dibowitz

Analyst · Citigroup

Thanks, Nick, and good morning and afternoon to everyone. I'll begin today's call with a summary of our third quarter performance and highlight our recent commercial achievements. I'll then provide an update on the offshore drilling market before discussing how our continued focus on operational excellence, commercial execution and disciplined cost and fleet management is driving long-term value for shareholders. I'll then turn the call over to Matt, who will provide additional detail on our contracting activity and the broader floater and jack-up markets. After that, Chris will walk through our financial results and guidance, and I'll finish with a few closing remarks. To begin, I want to highlight a few key points. First, I want to thank the entire Valaris team for continuing to deliver safe and efficient operations. This solid operational performance contributed to another strong quarter of financial results with meaningful EBITDA and free cash flow generation. Second, we continue to execute our commercial strategy, having recently secured an attractive contract for VALARIS DS-12 with BP Offshore Egypt. With this award, all 4 of our drillships with near-term availability are now contracted for work beginning next year. Third, despite near-term commodity price uncertainty, demand for offshore drilling services is developing as we expected. We continue to see a robust pipeline of deepwater opportunities for our high-specification fleet, and we are in advanced customer discussions for our drillships scheduled to complete contracts in the second half of 2026. In summary, we remain focused on delivering outstanding operational performance, executing on our commercial strategy and prudently managing our costs and fleet. By staying disciplined and focused on these priorities, Valaris is well positioned to deliver long-term value for our shareholders. Moving to operations. Delivering safe and efficient operations is always our top priority. It protects our people, strengthens relationships…

Matt Lyne

Analyst · BTIG

Thanks, Anton, and good morning and afternoon, everyone. I'll begin with a summary of our recent contract awards before providing updates on the major floater and jack-up markets where we operate. Since our second quarter call, we've secured new contracts and extensions, adding nearly $200 million to our contract backlog. And we are in advanced customer discussions on several contract opportunities for both drillships and jack-ups that we expect to conclude before year-end. Starting with drillships, year-to-date, we've added approximately $1.4 billion of backlog for our drillship fleet, representing 9 years of total contract duration. Most recently, we've secured a 5-well contract for VALARIS DS-12 with BP offshore Egypt. The contract is expected to commence in mid-second quarter 2026 with an estimated duration of 350 days and a total contract value of approximately $140 million. The contract also includes 3 option wells, which could extend the program to more than 2 years in total duration. Turning to jack-ups. We have secured more than 500 days of additional work in the North Sea, including contract extensions for the VALARIS Norway, 121 and 122 as well as a 4-month program for the 248, which helps bridge most of the gap between the SPS and the start of the next program in 2026. Fleet-wide, we've added over $2.2 billion in contracted revenue backlog year-to-date, significantly enhancing our contract coverage for 2026 and beyond. And current total backlog stands at $4.5 billion. Turning now to the major floater and jack-up regions where we operate. Consistent with last quarter, we are tracking more than 30 longer-term floater opportunities with planned start dates in 2026 and 2027, each with durations of a year or more. We continue to see programs we are tracking progress through the commercial process with long-term contracts typically awarded at least 9…

Christopher Weber

Analyst · Citigroup

Thanks, Matt, and good morning and afternoon, everyone. In my prepared remarks today, I'll begin with an overview of our third quarter results, followed by our outlook for the fourth quarter. Starting with our third quarter results, total revenues were $596 million compared to $615 million in the prior quarter, primarily due to fewer operating days for our floater fleet as drillships VALARIS DS-15 and DS-18 completed contracts midway through the third quarter without immediate follow-on work. In addition, jack-up VALARIS 247 completed its contract in late July and was sold in August. These items are partially offset by more operating days for several rigs in the jack-up fleet. Adjusted EBITDA was $163 million compared to $201 million in the prior quarter. The decrease was primarily due to fewer operating days for our floater fleet and the $24 million nonrecurring benefit we recognized in the second quarter from a previously disclosed favorable arbitration outcome. Third quarter adjusted EBITDA exceeded our guidance range of $120 million to $140 million, primarily due to certain contracts running longer than previously anticipated, higher revenues from ARO leased rigs and lower support costs. Third quarter CapEx totaled $70 million, coming in below guidance due to timing as certain project spend has shifted to the fourth quarter. During the quarter, we generated $198 million of cash flow from operations and received just over $100 million in net proceeds from the sale of VALARIS 247. After deducting capital expenditures, this resulted in $237 million of adjusted free cash flow. We repurchased $75 million of shares in the third quarter at an average price of $49 per share. We ended the quarter with $676 million of cash and cash equivalents. Moving now to our fourth quarter outlook, we expect total revenues in the range of $495 million to…

Anton Dibowitz

Analyst · Citigroup

Thanks, Chris. Before we open the line for questions, I'd like to recap a few key points from today's prepared remarks. First, I want to reiterate my appreciation to the entire Valaris team for continuing to deliver safe and efficient operations, which contributed to another strong quarter of financial results with meaningful EBITDA and free cash flow generation. Second, we continue to execute our commercial strategy, and as a result, all 4 of our drillships with near-term availability are now contracted for work beginning next year. Third, demand for offshore drilling services is developing as we expected. We continue to see a robust pipeline of deepwater opportunities for our high-specification fleet, and we're in advanced customer discussions for our drillships scheduled to complete contracts in the second half of 2026. In summary, we continue to focus on delivering outstanding operational performance, executing our commercial strategy and prudently managing our costs and fleet. By staying disciplined and focused on these priorities, Valaris is well positioned to deliver long-term value for shareholders. We thank our employees for their focus and dedication and our customers and investors for their continued support. That concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question today comes from Scott Gruber from Citigroup.

Scott Gruber

Analyst · Citigroup

So, it was good to see the repurchases this quarter. I'm curious about your appetite moving forward. Looking at consensus, there isn't a forecast for much free cash next year as we transition to better times. But you do have $660 million of cash on the balance sheet. Can you speak to an appetite to use that cash to buy back additional shares now ahead of the potential recovery in late '26 and '27?

Christopher Weber

Analyst · Citigroup

Yes, Scott, this is Chris. One, we remain committed to returning capital to shareholders. We executed the $75 million of repurchases in the quarter. We're excited about that. Reflects our confidence in the market and the outlook. But we've always said that our repurchases aren't necessarily going to be linear, not in a straight line, and we're going to be opportunistic, and that's what you saw this quarter. As we move forward, we'll see how the year progresses, what flexibility that provides for additional share repurchases, but excited what we were able to execute this quarter.

Scott Gruber

Analyst · Citigroup

What's your level of cash that you need to run the business? What's kind of a minimum cash balance for working capital purposes?

Christopher Weber

Analyst · Citigroup

Yes. I mean from a minimum cash perspective, I would say around $200 million to run the business. And where we hold cash in excess of that is just really with regards to kind of what are we seeing in the market, what's the cash flow profile of our business going forward and then those sort of things.

Scott Gruber

Analyst · Citigroup

Great. And then if I could sneak one more in. There's been a discussion around renewed appetite for exploration on various conference calls this quarter. Just wondering your perspective, in your conversations with customers, is there a tangible desire to increase exploration activity here in the years ahead? Are those conversations material? Or is it kind of a side conversation at this point?

Anton Dibowitz

Analyst · Citigroup

This is Anton. I'll take it. Look, there's always some exploration going on. Even in a lot of development programs that we've been drilling historically, customers will slot in an exploration well here or there. But we do see an increase in exploration discussions. And that's based on the necessity. The consensus is that we're going to need additional developments in order to meet the world's energy needs as we head towards the end of the decade. And in order to get those developments, our customers need to explore. So, I think it's a simple cause and effect. I think it's great for the market that there is additional exploration or increase in exploration activity expected from the various prognosticators in the market, also from the discussions we're having with our customers, and I think it portends well for where the market is going.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Greg Lewis from BTIG.

Gregory Lewis

Analyst · BTIG

Anton, I was hoping you could elaborate maybe a little bit more on Scott's question about shareholder returns. We saw the sale of the rig. That was obviously a nice profit. Cash flow was pretty good, really good. Is there any kind of way to think about -- you're going to have opportunities to sell rigs, some of the noncore rigs in the future. Balance sheet is obviously strong. Is that kind of a -- should we think about asset sales as a mechanism to drive some of this return of cash to shareholders? Or is it going to be more focused on the operations of the business or maybe a little bit of both?

Anton Dibowitz

Analyst · BTIG

Look, I'd start -- it's going to be focused on the operations of the business. I mean I want to first take a step back and say, we are committed to returning our free cash flow, sustained free cash flow to shareholders unless there's clearly a better or more accretive use for it. I think we've demonstrated that. Part of cost and discipline and fleet management comes to when there are opportunities like we had with the 247, a 27-year-old rig, and we can get a highly attractive price for it, it makes sense for us to divest that asset, and that obviously increases our financial flexibility. But at its base, our capital return needs to be driven by delivering operational cash flow. We are working through this white space period. So, Chris was asked the question before, when we understand and have these rigs, and we fully expect that our 10 active ships will be all working, exiting '26 under contract that will, again, underwrite our ability and flexibility as far as it comes to capital return. So, in summary -- let me take a step back and just summarize. It needs to be driven by operational delivery of operations and sustained earnings and the ability to sell assets when there are attractive opportunities, it is just opportunistic over and above that.

Gregory Lewis

Analyst · BTIG

Okay. Great. And then the other question I had was around some of the recent term deals you did that have that MPD additional services. Kind of curious, it seems like the market ebbs and flows between MPD being built into the price versus MPD being kind of like a menu item. In the event that it's a menu item, is there any way to kind of -- knowing that every well is different, every customer is different, is there any kind of rough estimate how we should be thinking about how much of the time maybe -- if there is MPD as an add-on service, how much of the time should we be thinking about that service being used?

Anton Dibowitz

Analyst · BTIG

It's very -- I'd love to give you an easy answer, but it is very, very customer dependent. It depends what sort of drilling they're doing. So, it is contract specific, well specific, is it a development? So, it's hard to -- Matt, I don't know if you want to.

Matt Lyne

Analyst · BTIG

Yes. I think Anton hit the nail on the head that each customer is so different, so there's no large rule. But I think you can assume, if you're just running general analysis, somewhere between 40% to 50% utilization.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Eddie Kim from Barclays.

Eddie Kim

Analyst · Barclays

Just a bigger picture question here. You reiterated your expectation for seventh-gen drillships exiting 2026 at utilization around 90%. At the same time, we have seen a few day rates below $400,000 a day that DS-12 included in that, though I know that Egypt is a lower OpEx environment for you guys. But some investor concern around maybe some more day rate prints below $400,000. First, do you think those are coming? And second, how is that impacting your view on activity inflection higher in the back part of next year? It seems that it isn't, but just wanted to get your thoughts and your confidence level around that.

Anton Dibowitz

Analyst · Barclays

Okay. A few questions in there. I think this is how I describe it. We believe the market is playing out as we expected. I think that day rates for high-spec ships have largely troughed in the high 300s, kind of low to mid -400 range. As an industry, we're working through a period of white space and then there are a number of tenders that are in progress right now, and you'll probably see some additional prints contract awards in that range as those contracts work through the tender process. But we continue to expect that utilization will trough towards the end of this year, early next year and then a recovery beyond that, exiting as an industry, high-spec ships above -- at or above 90% at the end of '26, and inevitably, day rates follow utilization. But for now, I think day rates have troughed as we see it for the cycle in the kind of high 300s, low to mid-400 range.

Eddie Kim

Analyst · Barclays

Great. Great. My follow-up is just on your rigs coming off contract next year. You have absorbed a lot of white space with your recent contract awards. But the DS-9 and the DS-7 are off contract mid- to late next year, both in Angola. And based on your, I mean, constructive outlook in Angola and West Africa in general, it feels like it's likely that those could get extended without any idle time between contracts. Just any thoughts there? And then [indiscernible] DS-15, DS-18 have long-term contracts starting end of next year, but are idle today. What's the likelihood that you'll be able to secure some short-term gap-fill work for those before long-term contracts commence?

Anton Dibowitz

Analyst · Barclays

Matt, do you want to start on the gap-fill and then I'll come across as how we view them.

Matt Lyne

Analyst · Barclays

Sure. I mean I think -- well, first off, Angola on the 9 and the 7, as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, you're seeing a decrease in production, so I think the government is working closely with the IOCs to incentivize drilling. So, I think your read is right that we see positive discussions regarding the future contracting opportunities for those rigs. And equally, they have performed extremely well, which just further benefits the likelihood that they'll have strong potential for extensions. From a gap-fill perspective, we've done a great job of bookending the near-term availability on our assets. And while there are some short-term opportunities available in the market, probably not enough to fill all the rigs that have white space right now, but we continue to chase work that fits the longer-term opportunities that we've secured.

Anton Dibowitz

Analyst · Barclays

I think Matt covered it well. Our expectation is that high-spec rigs will exit '26, 90% plus utilization. Our team has done a fantastic job of delivering our commercial strategy to date, and I expect them to continue to do that. No pressure, Matt. But we expect that all 10 of our active drillships will exit '26 on contract and working.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Doug Becker from Capital One.

Doug Becker

Analyst · Capital One

Valaris has a couple of rigs with Petrobras in Brazil. I want to get a sense for the focus of recent discussions with them to help reduce costs.

Anton Dibowitz

Analyst · Capital One

Matt, do you want to?

Matt Lyne

Analyst · Capital One

Sure. I mean I think it's been widely reported that Petrobras are looking across their entire value supply chain for potential savings in 2026. So, while it's early days in discussions amongst all of their services, we've seen these discussions materialize before. So, I think what's important is recognizing that they want to maintain their production targets, which means they are likely to maintain a fleet of similar size over the long term, which is positive for us. And so, while constructive discussions continue, it's too soon to kind of discuss the specifics around it.

Anton Dibowitz

Analyst · Capital One

I think Matt said it really well. We expect Petrobras' rig fleet to remain stable. They have clear goals on what their production, and that's going to mean they need to maintain a significant and the most significant drillship fleet in the world. And the discussions are very early days and very, very constructive. So, we'll just have to see how it plays out across the industry.

Doug Becker

Analyst · Capital One

Definitely sounds encouraging. Maybe switching to Saudi Arabia. You mentioned Aramco has issued notices calling back several suspended rigs. It sounds like there's also been a recent tender. Do you think Saudi Arabia is a source of incremental demand, incremental work for Valaris next year?

Anton Dibowitz

Analyst · Capital One

Really positive to see Saudi Aramco reactivating and calling back suspended rigs. So, I think when you look at a global utilization of the jack-up market hovering around 90%, it just adds further benefit to that market. So, we see that as a really positive data point. On incremental demand, there are -- there is potential for that. And with some idle capacity sitting over in the Middle East, we continue to monitor that closely together with our joint venture, which operates in Saudi Arabia.

Operator

Operator

And our next question comes from [ Josh Jain ] from Daniel Energy Partners.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Those in the market generally seem in unison with respect to a recovery in deepwater in the second half of '26. And I think the recent contract announcements largely support that. Maybe you could just talk a bit more about where geographically do you have the most confidence that rig counts will hold or increase and which regions do you see as having potential risk if we're in uncertain crude environment?

Anton Dibowitz

Analyst · Citigroup

Matt, do you want to give Josh [indiscernible]?

Matt Lyne

Analyst · BTIG

Sure. I mean -- I think we've touched a few of these in some of the answers already given in the prepared remarks. But I think we largely see South America, Brazil holding flat, maintaining their fleet size, which is also the largest floater market. So that's a very positive sign. Incremental demand in Africa. We've mentioned the FID of Eni's project in Mozambique and then there's some strong signs of that force majeure being lifted for 2 other major IOCs with Exxon and Total. So some positive work in East Africa and obviously announcing some work in Egypt with decreasing production there, trying to turn that around is showing some other -- some unique opportunities in the Med and West Africa. So, what we have seen though, is some rigs shifting locations as well with Asia carrying a number of opportunities without sufficient supply sitting over there and customers really continuing the trend of focusing on higher-spec assets, you could see some migration from the Golden Triangle to service some of the opportunities in Asia. Roughly half that -- sorry, let me just go -- roughly half -- take a step back from that, roughly half that incremental demand, a big driver of incremental demand will be Africa and Africa in general. There is about 25% of that were coming from beyond the Golden Triangle and fairly stable in the U.S. Gulf and South America.

Unknown Analyst

Analyst

Great. Thanks. And then I wanted to pry just a little bit on Aramco and Doug hit it with his last question. But with -- I guess what's changed a little bit over the last 18 months is I feel like Saudi has definitely gotten a bit more aggressive with respect to their production goals that they're talking about hitting over the next 6, 12, 24 months. Maybe you could just offer a little bit more insight and maybe not into '26, but just longer term, how many rigs do you feel like they ultimately could be adding back over the next 3 years, just given the volatility that we've seen and to ultimately meet their lofty production goals?

Anton Dibowitz

Analyst · Citigroup

I think what I'd focus on in the recent news out of people talking about rigs going back to Saudi Aramco, Saudi Aramco's desire to bring rigs back into production is the fact that in the global fleet, high-spec jack-up utilization is 90% above, 90% and above. So, the market has held in there. The talk is in the near term, kind of mid- to high single digits plus potential for additional tenders beyond that. And every rig that goes back into their fleet is further supportive of the global market. So overall, the jack-up market, high-spec jack-up market is fairly healthy. And I think just to the extent they choose to bring rigs back in order to meet their production targets, it's just further support for a market that's already attractive.

Operator

Operator

And ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we'll be ending today's question-and-answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Nick Georgas for any closing remarks.

Nick Georgas

Analyst

Thanks, Jamie, and thank you to everyone on today's call for your interest in Valaris. We look forward to speaking with you again when we report our fourth quarter 2025 results. Have a great rest of your day.

Operator

Operator

And with that, we'll be concluding today's conference call and presentation. We thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.