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Vale S.A. (VALE)

Q3 2020 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 29, 2020

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Vale's conference call to discuss 3Q '20 results. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and- answer session and instructions will be given at that time. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded and the recording will be available on the company's website at vale.com at the Investors link. This conference call is accompanied by a slide presentation, also available at the Investors link at the company's website and is transmitted via Internet as well. The broadcasting via Internet, both the audio and the slide changes has a few second delay in relation to the audio transmitted via phone. Before proceeding, let me mention that forward-looking statements are being made under the safe harbor of the Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1996. Actual performance could differ materially from that anticipated in any forward-looking comments, as a result of macroeconomic conditions, market risks and other factors. With us today are Mr. Eduardo De Salles Bartolomeo, Chief Executive Officer; Mr. Luciano Siani Pires, CFO; Mr. Marcello Spinelli, Executive Officer for Ferrous Minerals, Mr. Mark Travers, Executive Officer for Base Metals; Mr. Carlos Medeiros, Safety and Operational Excellence Executive Officer; Mr. Luiz Eduardo Osorio, Executive Officer for Sustainability and Institutional Relations; Mr. Alexandre Pereira, Executive Officer for Global Business support; Mr. Paulo Couto, Director of Coal; Mr. Alexandre D'Ambrosio, General Counsel; and Mrs. Marina Quental, Director of People. First, Mr. Eduardo Bartolomeo will proceed to the presentation on Vale's 3Q '20 performance. And after that, he will be available for questions and answers. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Mr. Eduardo Bartolomeo. Sir, you may now begin.

Eduardo De Salles Bartolomeo

Analyst

Okay. Thank you. Good morning everyone. First of all, I hope everybody is safe and sound. Well, it's been more than seven months since we've started managing Vale in a remote way. And one thing has not changed, the safety of our employees come first. Vale continued to face the COVID-19 pandemic with disciplined and sense of urgency. We maintain our guards very high. And our priorities remain intact, safety, people and the reparation of Brumadinho. We have been learning a lot since Brumadinho and transforming our culture and practices for a better value. With that in mind, I'm pleased to share that our process and results continue to improve, together with our de-risking process. Please next one. Starting with the reparation. Our commitment to Brumadinho remains steady. We already disimbursed $2.6 billion on the reparation. The indemnification process continues with about 8,200 people covered by agreements for moral and material damage, 600 people more since our last call. The work store infrastructure and environmental recovery are progressing as well. We completed the watermen at Paragominas to ensure supply of water to a city with a population close to 100,000 people. As well, we have concluded the tailing containment structures at the Paraopeba River. Since May the river has no longer received segments. And most importantly, we continue open for dialogue and to active listening throughout the reparation process. This quarter, we delivered the integral reparation plan for Brumadinho which was built on the community's perspective and submitted in September to the municipality. We are certain that with this, we have a solid plan in our hands to repair the damage and support the development of Brumadinho. Finally, we are having encouraging conversations with the state of Mina Gerais and other stakeholders to get a framework agreement for collective damage…

Marcello Spinelli

Analyst

Thank you, Eduardo. Well, I have some information to share about iron ore production and sales. I think you have a lot of questions about sales. So let's start with the production. So you can pass please the slide. Some weeks ago, we had a chance to detail as Eduardo said the roadmap to reach a run rate of 100 million tons in 2022. So today, I think we have a checklist, transparent checklist we can have some deviation quarter-by-quarter, but definitely now we can follow together the evolution of the recovery of production. So in Q3, first information as Eduardo said, huge production in ore 57 million tons record, on track with production also all the projects around the North and in the South and the Southeast so far so good on track projects, production and the initiatives with the dams. For Q4, we are -- we've been running, at this -- running the production around one million tons a day, it's a good news, so far so good. Our target, we are in the lower level of the guidance around 310 million tons. It's very important to say that, at this time of the year, we don't have any more capacity to offset some deviations, if you face some problem. So you must deliver exactly what we have in our plan. And what kind of risk you have ahead. So I can say too. First one is related to the license of East range. Is to waiting for the license. We are in the last mile of that. There are no more information to the regulators, but we need to receive this to start this operation is -- we are waiting for that. And we also -- we've been very caring about the rumor of lagging effect. Vale…

Luciano Siani Pires

Analyst

Okay. A few selective remarks here starting on iron ore. In the cost side, you saw we reduced costs from $17.2 to $14.9 per ton. We have guided for $14.5 for the second half. We will not achieve that. And the reason is because of the price increase on the third-party ore that we purchased. Although, the volume is small, we have a C1 for third-party purchases of around $50 per ton. And the $25 increase in the 62% index impacted those purchases to the point that we decided to include information in our release about what the C1 for Vale looks like without those third-party purchases. And we have $12.5 per ton for the quarter. We also showed the numbers for past quarters. And that's the best measure of Vale's competitiveness because it shows how the operations are performing not the ore that we purchase from third party. So something for you to track going forward, if we didn't have that price increase we would have gotten to our $14.5 guidance, but we're not going to for a good reason price increase. Q4 costs tend to trend down, because we had some maintenance especially in July in the northern system that we will not repeat this fourth quarter. For – and that's all in assuming stable exchange rates right because they've been fluctuating a lot. So – and they are a tailwind for us. For 2021 costs tend to stay flat compared to 2020 counterintuitive but the reason is although costs will be diluted by bringing more volumes, the volumes will come from the less competitive operations in the south and in the southeast. So the mix effect will offset the cost dilution effect. My remark on base metals goes to copper, all-time record for copper EBITDA. And also…

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Carlos De Alba, Morgan Stanley.

Carlos De Alba

Analyst

Good morning, everyone. Thank you very much. I hope you are doing fine. My first question is regarding the potential agreement or the negotiation discussions that you are currently having with the authorities on the Brumadinho settlement. Could you explain us maybe what are the next steps and a road map on this process to the extent that you have it? And second on this same topic, it is my understanding that there are four big blocks of potential payments. One is the collective damages; two the socioeconomical damages; three individual socioeconomical damages; and four environmental damages. Are all these four if I am correct included in the ongoing discussions that you are having or are only some of them are part of the discussions? And then if I may ask just very briefly maybe an update on Samarco. And also given that Luciano spoke about potential opportunity for Vale to buy back the shareholders debentures. What about the potential sale of -- or divestment of shares owned by the steel I guess controlling shareholders that is expiring in November. There might be some regulation that I think prevent you or may prevent you from buying those shares in the market or at least directly you might be able to buy it in the market. But if you could help us understand that situation that would be great. Thank you very much.

Eduardo De Salles Bartolomeo

Analyst

Okay, Carlos. We are fine. Thank you. The agreement -- let me -- I'll give you a broader picture and I'll ask Alex D'Ambrosio through detail. I think it's everybody's question. So I think it's better to tackle everything so we don't leave any room for doubts. I think first of all, we've been discussing with you during the last calls and the meetings that we have, that we were having discussions with all stakeholders. When we meet stakeholders is the state, the prosecutors, the defendants even Agus Brazilian entity at the federal level. So what is different now? It's different that now we are making a process of mediation that was brought to the Court of Justice and that improved in a way the convergency of the framework because one thing that we have been consistently saying is that we want a stable, but legal certainty that we can execute on the compensation and reparation of the strategy. So the new is that now we are under a different environment on a different approach. And then I think we'll come to your question about our road map. There are steps that have to be taken. And I think Alex will can cover you, we will explain to you a little bit more detail on those kind of steps that are necessary to achieve this framework agreement. And secondly, it's in Corpus everything but I think Alex can manage that well because you know, we have three civil actions that refers to those elements that you mentioned. And of course, they will have to be covered on this okay more holistic or whole agreement. Can you help me with that Alex?

Alexandre Pereira

Analyst

Of course. Thank you, Eduardo. Hello, Carlos. Well, as Eduardo was saying, there's been very positive evolution as of last week. Since the conversations have now moved to the mediation chamber of the Court of Appeals of Mina Juris. It is a formal mediation chamber. They call it the CEOs. As a result of this the negotiations will now take place in a more structured environment with the support of mediators, who are judges themselves of the court of appeals. Indeed the President of the Court of Appeals himself is participating and mediation process since he wants to see this agreement to succeed. Now if we reach an agreement in this environment we'll have much more legal certainty as it would be sanctioned by the court of appeals itself. That's why we think it's positive. All the plaintiffs are invited to this mediation. And so it's a collect – it's a large group of people and the conversation is mediated by the judges, as I mentioned. And so the idea is that it would be encompassing for all the parties involved. Conversations are indeed evolving and they're very constructive. But as you can expect there are many challenges to overcome. And the main one is to draft the document that would be acceptable for the many parties involved and that would offer legal certainty. So we certainty – need legal certainty in stated from the outset. We need governance that ensures speed of reparation. And there's still no definition of values, okay? And this will be discussed after we have this framework. The second part of your question what will this cover? Well we have – as you said four basic blocks one, which is not in this agreement is the individual indemnification. So people are coming to discuss with Vale directly and that's Eduardo mentioned, 8,200 people as of this date approximately have already been indemnified. What we expect is that the agreement would sanction the individual discussions with these people. So that's been already agreed in concept that that would be part of it. There's environmental reparation. That would be in this agreement. Although, environmental reparation is an obligation that we would undertake to deliver. We don't have a value. We may have estimates but that's not something that we will pay off. We would actually continue to pursue the reparation. There's a collective damages part that would be capped and that would be paid off. And there's what we call the social compensation part which would also be capped and that would be paid off. So I think I covered the four. And that's what we are proposing. That's what we are discussing at this time. I hope I answered your question. Thank you.

Luciano Siani Pires

Analyst

Okay. Samarco continues to be on track for a restart in December. It will produce to the capacity of 8 million tons, there will be a ramp-up in 2021. So probably by 2021 the production will be somehow smaller than $8 million but it will reach – definitely reach that production capacity somewhere in 2021. As regards the potential sale from shareholders after the end of the shareholders' agreement, obviously that is a decision that pertains to them. But should it happen, Vale can eventually – that would be a public offer, like a follow-on offer, a secondary offer in the capital markets. There will be a book building process. Demand could be X times higher than the supply. And yes, Vale could theoretically put a bid on those shares. However, according to Brazilian legislation, if demand is higher than the supply of shares from any selling shareholder, Vale would be the first one to be cut because it is considered a related party in this process. So, if Vale wants to buy shares in the market, the most obvious way would be to launch a buyback program rather than go into such a follow-on because it's very unlikely that we will be able to buy those shares in such a process.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from Timna Tanners Bank of America.

Timna Tanners

Analyst

Yeah. Hi. Hope everyone is doing well. Wanted to ask a bit more about your market outlook iron ore if you could get some specific comments on the pellet premium outlook and premiums for higher iron ore grades. So along those lines just asking, I guess, about the better demand outlook for Europe that would support higher pellet premiums. And with the announcements recently have some additional supply coming on. How are you thinking about the outlook for supply and demand in the next year or two? Thanks.

Eduardo De Salles Bartolomeo

Analyst

Go ahead, Spinelli.

Marcello Spinelli

Analyst

Okay. Hi, Timna. Thank you for the question. Well, let's start with the pellet premium. Well, what we see as you know we have I think two main markets here in this case. The direct reduction pellets is more related to the Middle East. And in the U.S. we see a recovery in these markets. Obviously, all the problems the COVID that we can have further problems, but we see these markets were stable and recovering for next year. And in case of direct reduction we have something that we must track that China is again opening the import of scraps. This can bother the scrapping market the seaborne pre-marketing that is in around Turkey and the U.S. This can improve the price of the scrap and bring more margins to this middle waste market. So much track on that. We see that trend for short-term is -- we just see a stable price a stable premium, but we can have some cap between the blast furnace pallet and the direct reduction pellet for next year, but we must treat that. On the other hand the best -- furnace pallet. It's quite the same that is happening in the market of Europe or Japan. So we are struggling with this new lockdowns in COVID. Our number for this year that we have for the whole X China, a decrease of around 12% in this most developed countries we see 19%. But it depends of the new COVID outbreak. And we share recovery for next year around 9%. So that's outlook in the market. The supply demand balance, I see today during this quarter and the next quarter we are more balanced. We are returning around 60 million tons only in Vale. With the market we see some new tactics producers that are coming to China like India or other regions like Europe going to China. I think they will -- probably will go back to the original market. That's a tendency that we see in India. And -- but we see a supply demand well-balanced of numbers are narrowing now the supply demand to 1% or 2%. That's what our forecast for next year.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Jon Brandt, HSBC.

Jon Brandt

Analyst

Hi. Good morning. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. Luciano, I first wanted to ask you about the C1 cash costs. So I certainly appreciate the disclosure around, sort of, your own C1 cash costs of 12.50%. If I'm not mistaken the target and the guidance that you've historically talked about has been sort of total C1 cash costs including third-party purchases. I'm wondering, if you can give some more guidance or target as it relates to your own C1 cash costs in the next three to four years as you ramp up production closer to that $400 million tons. I mean how much further should we expect that your own C1 cash costs to fall? And my second question I guess is more related to nickel and the EV battery theme. Is this something that you're potentially looking to move further upstream in the battery supply chain given your exposure to nickel and cobalt. Especially, considering the government of Indonesia's ambitions to become a EV, sort of, battery destination and your relationship with the government. Could we see sort of more investments further upstream here? Thank you.

Luciano Siani Pires

Analyst

Okay. Jonathan, I'll give you numbers -- the full numbers okay including the third-party purchases. The best quarter we had was 12.8% fourth quarter of 2018 when we were producing at a rate of 385 million tonnes. So that gives you an idea of where we can get with the adjustment for the new FX rate that 12.8% would be perhaps between $10 and $11 per tonne. Yes we have had some depletion, which means transportation distances have increased. So -- but if we have the licenses for example we open up new mines at the rate that we would like to then we could reasonably get when we get to 400 million tons to $10 to $11 per ton at existing FX rates. Mark?

Eduardo de Salles Bartolomeo

Analyst

Yeah. No I won't answer this question first. John thanks for the question, because I still have my foot on the base metal. So first of all there is a lot of interest on OEMs and the kinds to talk about BASF a lot of players are coming to talk to us. But we have no intention whatsoever to go up we will focus on using our assets in our mining assets. That's a very important point as well. So there are initiatives that are looking to different mining assets that would require that kind of approach that you mention around governments and helping like Specific Canada we are having this kind of discussions. But we will stick where we know and where we are good at is at the mine site. Mark is still in the line you could open please me?

Mark Travers

Analyst

Oh, yeah that's absolutely the case. And I would say that we already have some options for some participation. For example, we do have the Pamela project in Indonesia where the product would be suitable and would be directed towards the electric vehicle batteries. So those kinds of things are there is also we -- some of our products for example coming out of Sudbury and in U.K. refineries are suitable for electric vehicles. But as Eduardo said, if we see the kind of growth that we're anticipating in the electric vehicle market, the supply chain is going to look for some tremendous amount of supply. The typical source people are talking about are HPAL technologies out of Indonesia. But we would think that we're going to need more mines developed in the coming years to meet that supply. And obviously that's our interest is trying to find the right ways to get those mines up and running to support the electric vehicle industry and meeting the returns that we need to see.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Andreas Bokkenheuser, UBS.

Andreas Bokkenheuser

Analyst

Thank you very much. I hope you are all well. Just a quick question on freight. How has it been so far over the past year in terms of your freight especially to China? Has that mostly been on Valemax and VLOCs? And equally as important as you progress towards 2022 and aim to get close 100 million production back. What is your vessel capacity there? Do you still have new vessels coming in, in the shape of Valemax VLOCs, or are you going to be more dependent on the third-party vessels possibly in the spot market that scenario? Thank you very much.

Marcello Spinelli

Analyst

Hi, Andreas. It’s Spinelli here. I think your question is regarding freight, I think we have -- let’s talk about the fleet firstly. We -- you are improving our Guaibamax fleet, yeah, so the strategy is to have vessels, the big vessels are on track. So our trend in one year, two years is to reach our level what we consider the optimal level to 400 million tonnes. So that's a track is going on. So in the short-term we are -- we have some exposure in the spot market not so high. We had some reflections in the freight this quarter and have some next quarter. But probably all the fluctuation in the bunker price there will be some offset in this trend. So we see a stable freight for the next short-term period. And a lot of comments about the scrubbers and this come from the freight that we have work. We have the turbinator always on track. So today the gap between the super loan offer lower than before. Now it's 60. But most of our freight will be using this year and we count on that next year is higher than 90%. So that's the trend. Keep this strategy to grow the fleet, but in the level that we can manage the part and the flexibility this part and in our own best.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Chris Terry, Deutsche Bank.

Chris Terry

Analyst

Hi, Eduardo, Luciano and Marcello and team. Two questions from me. Just on the sales versus production. If I understand it correctly, you're saying sales should be close to production in 4Q. And as we focus on 2021 and 2022, as you ramp up to 400 million tons, can you just give us some color on what you expect the inventory build to be as you add additional blending sites over that period? And my second question is on coals. After you do the three-month revamp, how long will it take you to get to the 15 million ton run rate? Thank you.

Luciano Siani Pires

Analyst

Thank you, Chris for your questions. Spinelli?

Marcello Spinelli

Analyst

Again, the -- it's important to understand that the fluctuation related most of the timed up. We should not compare the production in the quarter and the sales in the quarter. So I think the best comparison is between the -- in this case Q4 sales and Q3 production. So if you consider all the time of transit and lead time is the best comparison today. We can have some gaps of inventory in case of a gap of production that we have. So as you bid, we've been building for a long time, we lost an inventory last year. Now we're going to return this inventory building, because it's the quantity we need to make the gap. So we see few gaps, probably two -- one, two years, every time we have a difference between production in one quarter. But as we have the inventory in China, we have more flexibility. So, we don't have significant difference between sales and production during the period. So this was the first time we had this gap after the decrease of inventory, but there’s not what we think in short and long-term, we're going to increase gradually this inventory and we have some differences but not significant.

Eduardo De Salles Bartolomeo

Analyst

Paolo, can you go ahead?

Paulo Couto

Analyst

Yeah. Thanks for the question. After the maintenance program, we'll have a small rent period and we expect to reach to date 15 million tons per year run rate starting from the second half of the year of 2021.

Operator

Operator

Excuse me, are you ready for the next question.

Eduardo De Salles Bartolomeo

Analyst

Yes. Go ahead. I think he answered the question from Chris.

Operator

Operator

Yeah. Our next question comes from Alfonso Salazar, Scotiabank. Please proceed.

Alfonso Salazar

Analyst

Thank you. Thank you for taking my questions. I have two. The first one is regarding iron ore and the implications of the Chinese restrictions of medical imports on your iron ore operations. I don't know if you can explain, if you expect the use of different calls to change the needs of blending or adjust the marketing strategy of your products? The second question is regarding your Base Metal division, and in particular, on copper. There is a lot of interest on good performing copper assets. But apparently, the ones that you own look bored in your iron ore and nickel portfolio. So just wondering if you can share thoughts on how to unlock value of those assets in particular corporate assets and the expansion projects that you have on copper? And if it's possible to unlock that copper value before nickel? Those are the two questions, I had.

Marcello Spinelli

Analyst

Thank you, Alfonso. It is Spinelli here. Well, if I understand your question. So, our product is very stable quality that BRBF on China [ph]. As we can have some demand regarding the problems now, they are increasing the cost of coke. And if they have a better margin, they can save some cost of energy, they can improve to better quality. So we can support this with iron ore IOC or the carcasses all of our BRBF. Every time we discuss about quality locate justice, but we've been working on a very stable operation for BRBF. It's very important for the choice that Sumika can take, when they want to change the plus furnace products. So, we must take the quality in a stable way.

Eduardo De Salles Bartolomeo

Analyst

Okay. Alfonso, if I got your question clear, I agree with you that we have to unlock value in copper. There's a good discussion undergoing Bali now around exploring our Carajás province. We have a tremendous province there. There are some synergies with iron ore that we are unlocking. So we're talking about [Indiscernible]. We are talking about even solo before, if we can revise reserves. We can talk about Alfonso, a series of assets that we have there. So, I think, there's a -- we call here copper dream. Everybody wants copper. It's obvious. It's the commodity. I think iron ore and copper are the no brainers. And we do have exceptional assets in Catajars that need to be developed. And while you talk about unlocking value, I think, it's a more complex question, because since the beginning and we started the turnaround of the whole base metals business and we believe is undergoing pretty well as nickel has been proven. We need to fix the house as well. So there, I think, double, I would say, phase story here. One is to fix the assets that you have. And second is to grow the assets that you have on the ground. So we're extremely optimistic that we can and we're going to show that on validate by the way on our expectations about copper. We are very upbeat on that. So if we come back to the famous 30% of relevance of base metals inside value, we couldn't lock on that way, when people start to perceive value on the base metals business besides iron ore. Iron ore is too big still in relation to base metals. We won't have time to discuss in the call what kind of options we have, but one for sure is to do the right things, with the right assets and have something that the market, how could I say, values it. But I'd like to ask Mark as well, because Mark is very passionate about this theme as well.

Mark Travers

Analyst

Eduardo, you're right. I am very passionate about the copper business in base metals. It's an excellent business. It generates a tremendous amount of free cash flow. And it's got tremendous opportunities going forward. We spend a lot of time stabilizing the business. We're seeing some good stability coming this year. Salobo is performing very well. We're -- now Sossego has performed extremely well this year and staying on budget. Next year, I think, we're moving more into a productivity type agenda to increase the returns of the base that we have right now. And as Eduardo mentioned, the growth opportunities are there, not only the ones we've talked about in terms of Cristalino and Alemão which our agenda, but also unleashing through synergies with iron ore and the railroad system that are there can bring us even further. And finally, I will note that we have a very good world-class project and Project Hu'u in Indonesia. We've been releasing drill results. This is a world-class copper project in the making as well. So very excited about the copper business, as well as the nickel business. Thank you.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Sylvain Brunet, Exane BNP Paribas. Please proceed.

Sylvain Brunet

Analyst

Good afternoon, gentlemen. So, two questions. The first one on iron ore, just to maybe get some sense of the demurrage costs you would guide us to for Q4, if we should assume some continued decline there? And my second question is on VNC. Should we assume zero production in Q4 as you're ramping down? And what is the value left on your books after the several impairments, please? Thank you.

Luciano Siani Pires

Analyst

Okay. The -- yes the -- Sylvain, the cost -- the iron ore costs will continue to come down on the fourth quarter. Because we don't have any major maintenances and we were going to spend less and dilute through the production. On the books VNC has zero value. We just wrote down the rest of the value that it had this quarter. Mark?

Mark Travers

Analyst

Yes. And, Luciano, just in terms of production at VNC, the way the care and maintenance process works is, we do need to prepare for consultation with the Workers Council and we continue to operate at, I would say, sort of a stabilized rate and while we go through that. So you will see production of the nickel hydroxide in Q4, let's say, roughly what you would have seen in Q3.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Christian Georges, Société Générale.

Christian Georges

Analyst

Yes. Thank you very much. Luciano, can you just go through again your cash costs for the Vale iron ore operations. You mentioned 10, 11 was your best performance in 4Q 2018, that level was at the FX rate of today, I understand. And you're saying that you can achieve again 10, 11 in future. Is that also just for Vale, or that includes purchased ore? That's my first question. And the second question is also on the residential that you may be considering purchasing or bidding for into the New Year. What kind of order of the value magnitude should we take into consideration? Thank you.

Luciano Siani Pires

Analyst

Okay. Yes. The 12.8% of fourth quarter of 2018. At today's exchange rate would be between 10% and 11%. And, yes, we may get to there, but also you should normalize by the price of iron ore if the price of iron ore, if the price of iron ore was the same price of the fourth quarter of 2018, the third-party purchases costs would be lower and the overall aggregate C1 of today as we speak would be perhaps another $2 below what it is. So instead of 14.9%, it would be already be at 12.9%, and we would be targeting 10% to 11%. So those are important. I think on the last question, I had mistaken the my answer. The question was about the merge costs. So there's no meaningful decline of the merge costs from the third to the fourth quarter. And I think the next question is for Marcelo Spinelli, right?

Sylvain Brunet

Analyst

The volume for purchase. We don't have a lot of source of purchase in Brazil. So it must be a stable number comparing to this year.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Tyler Broda, RBC.

Tyler Broda

Analyst

Great. Thanks very much for the presentation. To my questions have been answered, but I just have two quick follow-up ones. I guess with Project West if all goes to plan when should we expect that inventory to start building for that extra 20 million tons. And then secondly, I guess just on VNC. In terms of -- I see you have bidders back in the table if nothing is able to be agreed. How -- what should we look at in terms of the shape of the closure costs? Thank you.

Marcello Spinelli

Analyst

Thank you Tyler. It's Spinelli here. Well, the West product that's a -- we have this partner in China Solapor. We already operate there. It's in the delta of the Yellow River -- the Jencares. So it's a very important position for our blending and our distribution in China. So when you're improving that we don't we're not saying that we're going to use this -- increase this inventory considering the whole picture of out. So we -- that's our main market in that area. So we want to evolve the sometimes we can offset with other parts. And we're expecting to run this new operation in 2.5 years. So it will give more flexibility rather than to increase our inventors.

Mark Travers

Analyst

Hey, Tyler. Just on New Caledonia, as you mentioned, we -- there are some bidders that are looking at the asset. There's one group that is I would say put forward to, I would say, a rather fulsome offer. That's by management working together with employees and supported by Trafigura. We'll know in the next -- in the coming week or so how that's panning out, but we haven't stopped on the planning for on maintenance. And just in terms of estimates what we're planning for is care and maintenance rather than full closure. And just in terms of how that looks, it is quite a detailed process that's underway and we for it and it does require us to sit down with the workers' council and talk about what that looks like. So at this point, we don't have an estimate we can release. What we can say that is if you look at the requirements to fund New Caledonia, if we were to operate for the full year next year, we would estimate that the care and maintenance funding requirements would be roughly the same next year. And then the care and maintenance funding requirements the following year would be a fraction of those operating costs. So, primarily next year so roughly equal to what we would require to fund the operations.

Operator

Operator

This concludes today's question-and-answer session. Mr. Eduardo Bartolomeo at this time you may proceed with your closing statements.

Eduardo De Salles Bartolomeo

Analyst

Okay. Thank you. Thank you again for your questions attention and the opportunity to share with you our story. I think as you perceived the quarter was really positive one. It encourages us that we are on the right track, but I'm being repetitive on this. We are not in a sprint. We are in a marathon and I think we've been making strides in Brumadinho. I think we're repairing as I mentioned before with quality, with empathy, safety is a priority. We've been improving. We are very happy with the results in Carajás this quarter, because it shows us the potential that we have in that province and ore and we are on track to recover production. And as everybody that knows Vale, we are extremely conservative on capital. We are going to return the capital to the shareholders to all stakeholders in place we'll be extremely disciplined. So I think what we want to convey to you that we are striving to derisk the company, but that will make us a better company. And again, thanks a lot for your attention and let's see you in the next call. Have a good day and stay safe.

Operator

Operator

That does conclude Vale's conference call for today. Thank you very much for your participation.