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Vale S.A. (VALE)

Q2 2024 Earnings Call· Fri, Jul 26, 2024

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Transcript

Operator

Operator

We would like to inform that all participants are currently in a listen-only mode for the presentations. Further instructions will be provided before we begin the question-and-answer section of our call. We would like to advise that forward-looking statements may be provided in this presentation, including Vale's expectations about future events or results encompassing those matters listed in their respective presentation. We caution you that forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties. To obtain information and factors that may lead to results different from those forecast by Vale, please consult the reports Vale files with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the Brazilian Comissão de Valores Mobiliários, and in particular, the factors discussed under forward-looking statements and Risk Factors in Vale's annual report on Form 20-F. With us today are Mr. Eduardo Bartolomeo, CEO; Mr. Gustavo Pimenta, Executive Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations; Mr. Marcello Spinelli, Executive Vice President, Iron Ore Solutions; Mr. Carlos Medeiros, Executive Vice President of Operations; and Mr. Mark Cutifani, Chairman of Vale Base Metals. Now, I will turn the conference over to Mr. Eduardo Bartolomeo. Sir, you may now begin.

Eduardo Bartolomeo

Management

Okay. Thank you, and good morning, everyone. Here we are at the halfway mark of 2024. So, let's take a look at the progress we've made on our key levers to unlock value at Vale. Starting with our Safety journey, we are very pleased to inform that we have eliminated the B3/B4 dam, and we were able to achieve this one year ahead of the original schedule. We are working on two additional structures to be eliminated in 2024. By the end of this year, we will have completed more than 50% of our decharacterization program, a significant milestone. On our second level, we continue to see progress on iron ore operational stability with consistent performance and the third consecutive quarter of year-over-year increase in production. Our C1 cost that was seasonally higher in the second quarter, is on track to reach our guidance of $21.5 to $23 per ton for the year, especially as our product mix and fixed cost dilution improves in the second half. On iron ore growth and quality, Vargem Grande is on its way to start up in the next months, and the Capanema project is on track for the middle of next year for a combined capacity addition of 30 million tons. We approved the Sohar concentration plant, this will serve as a pilot project of our Mega Hubs strategy, which will redefine industry supply chains, foster additional demand for high-quality pellet feed and position Vale as the world's most competitive direct reduction concentrate supplier. In Energy Transition Metals, our Onça Puma, Sossego and Salobo plants have also resumed operations with no impact on our guidance for the year. We recently announced the new CEO of Vale Base Metals. Shaun Usmar brings his extensive mining experience and strategic vision to lead the Company throughout…

Gustavo Pimenta

Management

Thank you, Eduardo, and good morning, everyone. Let me start with our EBITDA performance in the quarter. As you can see, our pro forma EBITDA reached $4 billion in Q2, driven by strong operational performance across all commodities. This is a result of our continued focus on operational excellence and asset reliability, and the record iron ore production in Q2 since 2018 is a testament of that. As part of our asset integrity program, we had a concentration of maintenance activities in Q2, particularly in April, which, together with inventory turnover effect and higher freight rates more than offset higher iron ore sales in the quarter. The good news is that our C1 significantly declined by the end of Q2, while rising volumes in the North, coupled with reduced maintenance works in the second half provide us with a solid run rate to deliver a strong operational performance in the coming quarters. I will go into the details of our C1 dynamics in the next slides. On a sequential basis, our pro forma EBITDA increased 15%, driven by 25% higher shipments, partially offset by higher operating costs and lower realized iron ore prices. Now I would like to provide more color on our realized all-in premiums for the quarter. Vale has many sites and a broad product portfolio, ranging from high silica products that trade at discounts compared to the benchmark to direct reduction pellets with a 67% iron ore content. Typically, high silica products from the southern and southeastern systems are blended with Carajás to create our main product, BRBF. This is a premium product with low alumina and 5% silica content. As the average silica content naturally increases in the Southern and Southeastern systems, we have been using a higher proportion of Carajás in the blend, implying increased…

Operator

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Daniel Sasson with Itau BBA. You can open your microphone.

Daniel Sasson

Analyst

My first question, maybe to Gustavo. If you could please provide us an update on the ongoing negotiations with the government regarding the resell for Samarco, where we are right now, the back and forth with the government. Where do you think the most important points of this agreement are, that would help us. I mean I think we -- it could be an important catalyst for stock price performance once this gets solved. And my second question is regarding your portfolio mix. You mentioned that you expect 65% of high-quality products in your portfolio in the second half versus 59% in the first half with high silica declining to 10% of sales. Regarding specifically your strategy for the high silica portion, do you -- the decline expect ahead comes on the back of reduced inventories of that type of product? Or do you see maybe discounts increasing for that portion? My point is, is that a matter of what you have of high silica products to be sold being lower or less volumes than you had in the beginning of the year? Or that reflects your view that high silica products should demand a higher discount in the second half of this year versus the first half?

Gustavo Pimenta

Management

Sasson, Gustavo here. So, I'll take the first one and then Spinelli will go over your second question. So, Luca, Mariana, we continue to be optimistic about the ability and the possibility to settle the agreement. All parties are highly engaged. The view is that in the next -- you continue to have a view that in the next couple of months, we'll be able to reach a resolution, both in terms of the actual agreement, the text associated with the agreement and also the key financial terms. So this is important for the Company, and we see a momentum from all parties to be able to sit down and settle this. So we are optimistic in our expectations that in the next couple of months we'll be able to resolve this. So, I'll pass the second question to Spinelli.

Marcello Spinelli

Analyst

Thank you, Daniel. Structurally, we have the high silica in our portfolio. After Brumadinho, we have this imbalance in our mix. So after -- as you saw in the initial remarks, after the ramp-up of S11D we'll have the main component of the BRBF IOCJ. So, we can reduce -- minimize this kind of product stand-alone. So, you asked me what is the reason we are doing this. So, as we saw in the initial remarks, we can't -- we just don't sell it. But we have a market for that. So, until May, we sell directly, the gap was really widened when you compare the high grade and the low grade. Since the end of May, we start to concentrate the most we can. So, we have a capacity to produce 18 million to 20 million tons in China. We have a remaining high silica to handle so that's the reason why we are -- we expect to have 10% in our portfolio. That's the same level we expect for next year. And with the -- always saying that depends on market conditions, if we have a better discount for high silicon, we can sell directly. That's the influence. So just to set your model, you may consider this 10%. And gradually, in '26, '27, we must go to 0%.

Operator

Operator

Next question from Rodolfo Angele with JPMorgan. You can open your microphone.

Rodolfo Angele

Analyst · JPMorgan. You can open your microphone.

Okay. My two questions are the following. First, it's really good to see management positive and the evolution of costs and making sure guidance is reached. But this is a theme that's been more and more recurring when we speak to investors, and I just wanted to hear from you, aside from things such as higher volume, which is seasonally the rule in the second half of the year, particularly in the third quarter. What is this structural? What can be done? What's in your hands that we can see to make the path of costs coming down as expected and we hope eventually even lowering into '25 and onwards. So that's question number one. The second is a bit more about where we stand in prices versus the strategy -- successful strategy on the stabilization of the iron ore business. Of course, as per Spinelli's answer right now, the commercial strategy will follow market conditions, right? So, what we've been seeing is an effort to lower, to fight back seasonality. And we saw, since first quarter, very strong production reports. And of course, we are entering the period of even higher volumes. But how should we think about volumes in a scenario of prices as today are slightly below $100 per ton. Does that change anything? And how do you think about it? What can we expect if prices continue for a while as soft as they are right now?

Gustavo Pimenta

Management

So, Rodolfo, Gustavo here. So, I'll do the first one, again and Spinelli will go over the second one. So certainly, I think we've been the last, call it, two years looking structurally at our cost base. And implementing a series of initiatives being new technologies in the field, revisiting process, increasing the share of preventive maintenance as compared to corrective maintenance. All of that over time, should make our costs more efficient. And so, we are seeing this already as we look into the numbers. Certainly, the dilution effect for Vale given the expanded fleet that we have, it's super helpful, right? The ability for us to bring volume with very limited capital helps a lot. But we are not just counting on that. We're also looking structurally in areas where we think we can extract more value from the business. And we are seeing results already as we look into the business. So, I'll pass the second question to Spinelli.

Marcello Spinelli

Analyst · JPMorgan. You can open your microphone.

Rodolfo, thank you for your question. So, we don't see a support in the cost curve for a major decline at this moment. Definitely, we have a pressure of inflation, freight and now we see starting the impact coming from the green world, and that's the pattern we have. We have our long-term price of around 90%. So, this is the first direct answer for your question. But one thing you should pay attention. So, we see a balanced market at this moment. One of the micro indicators of -- everybody ask us about is the inventory -- iron ore inventory in the port side. I want to drag your attention for some information, actual information about this. Firstly, we've been, Vale, not only Vale, our competitors also, changing the way we are doing business. So, we are improving the production of BRBF. So, we have a nonoperational or non for sale inventory. Our competitors are screening the products, so increasing the blending. We are increasing the concentration now in the second half. So, this 160 million tons when you compared to last year is like 145 million tons. And there's another point that most of the increase came from low-grade ores, as you mentioned, we have the mantra of margin over volume. But if you pay attention in the lower level of IOCJ, and that's the reason the gap is widening the low-grade ore and high-grade ore. The premium in Carajás is higher now. So again, that's the balance. As a whole, we see the market balance. Pay attention that the port inventory is not a proxy directly at this moment with the demand and we should track this instability or we feel China all the time. We like to pray for extra steam, but we have a very strong new normal in China. That is supported by manufacturing exports is something every time we are worried about because we don't see yet the countries fighting against some product, but it's something that is structured. We have a new global, new ties, in this geopolitics. So, for this year, so far, so good. We see China with this level of production for next year. We see a stability in terms of demand. But obviously, we need some more figures about how can we reduce this, our concerns about the decline of properties in China. But so far, so good for '24 and '25, we are in a good shape in the balanced market.

Operator

Operator

Next question from Myles, also with UBS. You can open your microphone.

Myles Allsop

Analyst

So, a couple of things. First of all, on M&A. Obviously, there are some assets available, nickel assets available in Brazil. Just wondering how you're thinking about M&A, is this the right point to be sort of right point in the cycle to be picking up assets in that commodity. And then secondly, could you just talk a bit more about value over volume. So, if China is softer than you expect from a demand perspective, what price point do you expect the majors, including yourself to start curtailing production to support pricing?

Gustavo Pimenta

Management

Myles, Gustavo here. So, for that particular question on nickel in Brazil, we are not looking at those. And I think the way we always articulate and this is the way we think about M&As, as you know, we have a very large endowment at Vale. So, our preference has been to develop our own endowment in the commodities that we like and the ones that we operate well, and looking at opportunities that are win-win type opportunities. You've seen us doing a deal last year buying 15% of Minas-Rio, with the possibility to go to 30%. So those are the things we like. It's highly accretive and it's right there at what we want to do long term in terms of a strategic position. But for those particular assets that we just mentioned, we are not looking at that. So, I'll turn to Spinelli for the second question.

Marcello Spinelli

Analyst

Thank you, Myles, for the question. So, two sides here. The first, the cost curve. We -- if you move lower than $100 to $90, we see 100 million tons outside of market. So, we really see a support. We don't see a support in the balance to the market below that. On the other hand, in the demand side, you mentioned China. We have a positive eye on China when we see this new normal that we call the Chinese economy resiliency. Again, the new norm is based on manufacturing. It's based on export. We see infrastructure play an important role offsetting the decline of properties. Obviously, we see -- we may pay attention for two main points. That's our concern. And probably you're concerned that is -- the level of export, mainly the steel directly, for us, is as a temporarily part, but today is reaching almost 100 million tons. On the other hand, we have a new geopolitics tie. So we don't see the same ties as we've been seeing in the last years. Now we have other players, big players that can support demand from China. And we need to remind that ex-China is growing this year 4%. Emerging markets, including Southeast Asia, India, Middle East is growing really high. So, all of this together, we have to pay attention in terms of inflation, how the countries are accepting this new products from China, and it's so far so good. But don't see domestic market is declining due to the properties. But all this mix is supporting this high demand, at least for this year, next year in our analysis.

Operator

Operator

Next question from Carlos De Alba with Morgan Stanley. You can open your microphone.

Carlos De Alba

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. You can open your microphone.

A couple of questions on my end. One is, if -- Gustavo, any updates on the railway concession agreement? Similar to Mariana, that is a very important driver -- potential catalyst for the stock to move higher. So, any of this will be very good. And also, you mentioned that in your prepared remarks that the iron ore cash cost declined significantly or did much better in June or towards the end of the quarter. Can you share with us what was the level of cash costs in June? Just to have a sense of the pace in order to model the trend in the second half of the year.

Gustavo Pimenta

Management

Carlos, let me do the second one and then Spinelli will go over the concession renewal discussions. So, it was $22 per ton in June. So, April, for us, we had some higher maintenance cost, which has impacted our performance in the quarter overall. But looking into June, we -- the performance improved substantially. It's down to $20 -- it was down to $22. That's what makes us feel highly confident in our ability to deliver within the guidance range of $21.5 to $23 with a strong performance in the second half of the year.

Marcello Spinelli

Analyst · Morgan Stanley. You can open your microphone.

Hi, Carlos, thank you for [Technical Difficulty]

Gustavo Pimenta

Management

I'm going to take here because I think he lost his mic. So, Carlos, we continue to evolve. We don't have yet the final resolution to it. The conversations are, as we've mentioned in some of our market communications, highly advanced. There are certain regulatory procedures that needs to be followed. And so, we are waiting for those to be able to sell. We appreciate it's an important topic for our shareholders. And similar to Mariana, we think it's going to get resolved within the next couple of months.

Operator

Operator

Next question comes from Leonardo Correa with BTG. You can open your microphone.

Leonardo Correa

Analyst · BTG. You can open your microphone.

Yes. So, a couple of questions on my side. The first one on volumes, right? So, there has been relevant progress, right, on iron ore production over the past quarters. 2024 seems to be in the bag, right? As Eduardo mentioned in the introduction, it's -- I mean, at the upper range of the guidance, which is welcome, right? Looking out to 2025, I understand that you guys can't give precise guidance yet. We're going to have to wait for Vale Day, but given that you have Vargem Grande, which is progressing well, it's supposed to add 15 million tons of additional capacity. And also Capanema, which is also another 15 million tons of capacity. Just wanted to hear you on how you think production can shape up 2025, if you have any information, I think, can help because everything of the story, at least in my view, depends on how production evolve can evolve from here. And obviously, that's going to have a big impact on fixed cost dilution, right? So, trying to understand the direction of volume is, I think, essential. The second point, for Gustavo, still on the cash return topic, right, Gustavo, we still haven't spoken about the theme yet in the conversation or I think we spoke less than we have in the past. I mean it was a good surprise to see net debt levels reduced this quarter given the proceeds from base metals. We're now under $15 billion of expanded net debt, which from hearing you over the past several quarters and years, it seems that close to $20 billion, you were uncomfortable and Vale was deviating a bit from the average of the industry, right, which was running below Vale on net debt to EBITDA. Now you're getting closer, you're at the low of the range in terms of target for you. So, my question is, what needs to happen for Vale to move back to paying extraordinary dividends from here? I mean what needs -- what do you need to see? You need to see iron ore prices rebound? Or would you eventually be looking to increase leverage maybe to the middle of the range? Do you still need Samarco, what exactly is weighing on the decision process of Vale not paying the extraordinary? Those are the questions.

Gustavo Pimenta

Management

Thanks, Leo. So, I'll cover both. Yes, look, I think it's fair to say that the trend is upwards, right? So, we are bringing those projects online. I mean we've talked about that at Vale Day, almost 50 million tons, if you sum the three of them. They are progressing super well within the time line that we had defined. So, you should expect us to be able to continue to post a positive trend towards that long-term goal of being between 340 million to 360 million by 2026, right? So that's fair to assume that. And certainly, the details, as we usually do, we'll provide at Vale Day, but the trend is certainly positive in that regard -- in addition to the positive trend in the stability of our own operations, right, which have been performing well lately. So that's a positive news, we think. In terms of the dividend, extraordinary capital allocation, look, we -- you know the way we think about it, and we are always looking for ways to remunerate our shareholders within a very disciplined capital allocation framework. Certainly, there are a few things we want to see first. One is how the second half performs in terms of prices. That's important to see where we're going to land by year-end and also see how especially Mariana evolves. And then as we settle, we want to have that clarity first before making any further commitments. So those are important topics as part of our overall capital allocation framework that we want to see before we commit eventually incremental remuneration to our shareholders.

Operator

Operator

Our next question comes from Caio Ribeiro with Bank of America. You can open your microphone.

Caio Ribeiro

Analyst · Bank of America. You can open your microphone.

So, my first question, and I'm going back to your production guidance for the year, right? Second quarter numbers were quite strong. As you mentioned earlier in the call, your concern of attaining the upper end of the guidance. But it even seems feasible that you could surpass, right, that upper end of the guidance, right? So, my question is, could you revise that guidance of eventually this year? And what are you looking for in terms of factors or things that would give you that confidence to do so? And are these factors, events more market related or operational in nature? And is there a particular timing that you would see as more likely to take this decision or not? And then my second question is a follow-up on the ongoing railroad concession renewal negotiations. The concession renewal process generally involves an upfront payment followed by some commitments to deliver investments in the railroad over time. So, I just wanted to see whether you can provide any color. Once this agreement is struck, if that initial payment would be a single installment or several installments, right, followed by a CapEx commitment on the railroads over time or how we should think about this?

Gustavo Pimenta

Management

So Caio, thanks for your question, Gustavo here. Yes, I mean, if you look at year-to-date, we are performing well and better than last year. In fact, but we want to see how the next couple of months evolve. And then if there is an opportunity for us to do better, we'll do and we'll certainly up the market as we feel comfortable to update those numbers. But for now, team is highly focused on delivering what we committed. And given everything we've seen performance is super strong. Certainly, top end of the guidance is highly achievable for us. And if there's an opportunity to revisit, we will do in its due course. I think in terms of the details of the concession, I think it's early to say. Those are confidential conversations. We want to keep it within those dialogues. But certainly, we are looking at how any settlement fits into our cash flow projections and having the ability to honor those commitments, right? So that's super important in our conversations, but it is something we are still keeping within the negotiation team.

Operator

Operator

Next question from Marcio Farid with Goldman Sachs. You can open your microphone.

Marcio Farid

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. You can open your microphone.

I have a quick follow-up here. Firstly, I think Spinelli talked a lot about the current situation in China in terms of where premiums and discounts are, but I was trying to understand how should we figure it out in the long term? Or is it clearly upward trend in terms of demand for high-grade products and agglomerates as well? And obviously, Vale is definitely going increase it all in that direction as well, right? I'm just trying to understand from you, I think in longer term, obviously, [indiscernible] coming online in our numbers, for capacity potentially only '27, '28 but still significant high-grade volumes. There is obviously a push for the Australian [indiscernible] to develop their own agglomerate with their own fines as well. So how should we think about the balance for premiums in the long term, given a scenario of growing demand. And maybe on the base metal side, obviously, nickel better quarter from a cost perspective, copper, not so much. How should we think about it? I think it's been volatile from our sourcing perspective and how much third party is being used or not, especially in Canada. But now, if Sossego come back online, Salobo. How should we think about the momentum for cost of the base metal side, please?

Marcello Spinelli

Analyst · Goldman Sachs. You can open your microphone.

Thank you, Marcio, for your question. So, our long-term strategy remained intact. We strongly believe that you're starting to face segmentation of the market, as you mentioned, with high-grade ores, agglomerated products, if you see today, the pellet feed for high-grade ore or direct reduction is -- we may consider that a very strategic material in the world. t's not about copper, but high-grade ore is very rare. And we still see a gap in demand and production in the following years. You mentioned our competitors. They don't have ore that can be concentrated to reach these high-quality ores. So direct reduction is a trend. Natural gas is a trend. So, following this, we see our Mega Hubs strategy going forward. This announcement today about the mega hub in Sohar, actually is the first mega hub, full mega hub already done. So, we are now -- we have to build this capacity to concentrate. But there, we have the port, and we have -- we can handle the products and we can produce the agglomerate. So that's the first mega hub. In the U.S., it's moving fast after the grant that we got in the first half. And so far, other regions like Oman or Abu Dhabi and Saudi is moving really fast. And actually, in a few hours going to receive here the Minister of Saudi to talk about this. Minister of Industry and Mining. So, we're really confident about this trend and remain intact in our strategy.

Operator

Operator

Next question from Yuri Pereira with Santander.

Gustavo Pimenta

Management

No, no, no.

Eduardo Bartolomeo

Management

We still have to answer the other question. Mark Cutifani is going to take the question. Go ahead, Mark, please.

Mark Cutifani

Analyst · Santander.

Yes. You got me now. So, thanks for the question. On nickel, the trend should continue to improve with summary mine volumes continuing to improve. In fact, we're up near 20% increase as we tracked into June. So good news in Sudbury is we've got a lot more mine fleet. So that's a real positive. Just come back from Voisey's Bay, the trends there are very good. We should continue to improve with Onça Puma, getting the second furnace up. So, I think the trends are all positive on the nickel front. We've got to keep working hard at Manitoba, getting the place settled and looking at what we can do to reduce the services that we can probably do from other places. So we're working on all of those fronts. On the copper side, Salobo is the key. It is impacted by grades. If we can open the pit up a bit more and continue to improve our pit productivities, we can probably do a little bit more on the grade front, but that will take a little bit of time. It will depend on our in-pit productivity during the year. And Sossego is about settling post the restart and making sure that we've got the feed mix right during the course of the next 18 months. Thanks.

Operator

Operator

Now next question from Yuri Pereira with Santander.

Yuri Pereira

Analyst · Santander.

Could you talk about depletion, not only for Vale, but also for the industry. I mean, how many tons you think are out of the market per year only from depletion?

Marcello Spinelli

Analyst · Santander.

Thank you, Yuri, for your questions. It's a tough question because this is the business. So, but I can give you color that globally, we have a decrease of quality. And mainly in our competitors, they are facing the increase of alumina. That's a huge impact that will come to the market. In Brazil, I can say from Vale, the depletion is something that we had to overcome after Brumadinho. So, we had to improve our capacity not only to support this decline of the mines, that's a natural thing. But even grow the capacity to establish our level. So globally, if I can give you a number, it's 300 million tons to 400 million tons until 2030. And again, the difficulties to bring back quality puts Vale on a very good level to compete in this new world of green energy.

Operator

Operator

Next question from Ricardo Monegaglia with Safra. You can open your microphone.

Ricardo Monegaglia

Analyst · Safra. You can open your microphone.

I have a couple of quick questions. First on -- regards to the lawsuits in the U.K. and Netherlands. Are there any discussions to include such in some sort in the final agreement from Mariana, is that a possibility? Second question is how much could you -- could Vargem Grande produce in 2024 and how those grades in that operation compare with your most recent figures on quality of content. And maybe if Mark could just give a quick outlook or his latest impressions on nickel and copper markets.

Gustavo Pimenta

Management

Ricardo, Gustavo here. So, I'll do the first two and then Carlos will cover the second and then we can have Mark complementing. So, look, on the lawsuit, they are different, right? So those are different jurisdictions and the U.K. and the Netherlands as compared to Brazil. We continue to believe that the right jurisdiction for this decision to be handled, settled and resolved, this is Brazil, and we are working towards that outcome. As I mentioned in my first answer today, we continue to be optimistic that we'll be able to resolve those conversations and discussions here in Brazil.

Carlos Medeiros

Analyst · Safra. You can open your microphone.

Ricardo, this is Carlos Medeiros speaking. On Vargem Grande, we expect to produce 1 million tons in the remainder part of the year, and should be a normal concentrated product, 62% iron.

Eduardo Bartolomeo

Management

Mark?

Mark Cutifani

Analyst · Safra. You can open your microphone.

Well, good. Look, I think the world, as we know, is short copper demand still looks pretty strong. A little bit of a slowing of EV demand, but I don't think that's significant in the scheme of things. I think all other markets are pretty strong. So, we believe copper will continue to play strongly. And I think the activity we're seeing across the industry in terms of interest in copper assets is really confirming how strong, I think the producers are. We're the same. We've got some opportunities to improve. North Atlantic should also do a little bit better on copper next year, but I think pretty positive. And I think the risk is to the upside.

Operator

Operator

Next question from Amos Fletcher with Barclays. You can open your microphone.

Amos Fletcher

Analyst · Barclays. You can open your microphone.

My first question was just on working capital. I was just wanting to ask about how big of a release we can potentially expect in terms of working capital in H2, as Gustavo was mentioning. And then the second question was on nickel production in the guidance. The bottom end of the guidance implies 40% higher production in H2 versus H1. Just wanted to ask what are the main drivers for delivering that big recovery that we should be expecting.

Gustavo Pimenta

Management

So, Amos, this is Gustavo. Look, on working capital, I think there is a possibility to revert, if not all of it, but most of it, as we highlighted in that chart. So, I think we are looking for a stronger Q3. I think that's what you should be seeing.

Mark Cutifani

Analyst · Barclays. You can open your microphone.

On nickel production, the good news, Amos, is that Sudbury has got quite a bit of ore in front of the mill, something we haven't had for a long time. So that's positive in terms of coming out of the maintenance, so probably 10,000 to 15,000 ton, pickup there. Thompson should do better with a bit of production held back through Long Harbour maintenance. There's probably three there. Voisey's Bay, again, impacted by Long Harbour maintenance. So, there's probably three or four there. And we've got a little bit more that we can square through on the third parties because of the other maintenance that we've had in smelters. So, I think overall, pretty strong. And obviously, Onça Puma should be a stronger contributor, probably at least 10 based on the bringing up of the furnace rebuild. So quite a few positives there. The only negative might be -- what will be the deconsolidation of PTVI. I think there's about two there. So, net-net, we should go from about what was it, 67 to probably a pickup of around 30 in the second half. That's what we're assuming at the moment, that outlooks. We're pretty comfortable with that at the moment.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's question-and-answer session. We would like to hand the floor back to Mr. Eduardo Bartolomeo for the Company's final remarks.

Eduardo Bartolomeo

Management

Okay. Thank you. Well, as I mentioned in my initial remarks, the first half of the year is over. The best is yet to come. I think we are really confident on delivering on our strategic guidance. I think safety is one of the things we're most proud of and we are truly all extremely well on that, as I mentioned before, I think on iron ore cost is going to come to its place where Gustavo mentioned and production, for sure. It's on our hands. The things on direct reduction, as Gustavo mentioned, as a key takeaway, is coming on to reality as penal mentioned, we announced the Oman concentration plant. One thing that makes me very happy is the contract of our new CEO at Base Metals. Shaun is going to do a great job, help Mark do the transformation that is needed there. And as you said, Gustavo, has mentioned in his final remarks, we are always committed to create value. So, I will end, like always, I have never been so optimistic and that's why I'm optimistic. We are delivering on what we are -- how can I say that, promising to the market and that makes us happy. And of course, I'd like to thank our employees, our team for that, okay? And you, of course, for having to interest and talking to us. Until the next call.

Operator

Operator

Vale's conference is now concluded. We thank you for your participation and wish you a nice day.