Operator
Operator
VEON Ltd. (VEON)
Q3 2016 Earnings Call· Sun, Nov 6, 2016
$50.41
-2.80%
Operator
Operator
Bart Morselt
Management
Yes, Thank you. Good morning and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to our Conference Call on the Third Quarter Results. Today, I'm pleased to be joined on this call by Jean-Yves Charlier, our Chief Executive Officer, and Andrew Davies, our Chief Financial Officer. The structure of the presentation mirrors the previous quarterly results with Jean-Yves presenting the Group's strategic and financial highlights for the Group and Andrew focusing on the countries and the Group's operational and financial performance. He will then close with guidance and thoughts around dividends, and thereafter we will do the usual Q&A session. Before getting started, I would like to draw your attention to the disclaimer. The forward-looking statements made during today's presentations involve certain risks and uncertainties. These statements relate, in part, to the Company's anticipated performance and stated performance targets for future periods, future market developments and trends, expected synergies and timing of pending transactions, including the Italy joint venture, and the Company's strategic initiatives. Certain factors may cause actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements, including the risks detailed in the Company's annual report on Form 20-F, and other recent public filings made by the Company with the SEC. The earnings release and the earnings presentation, each of which includes reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures presented today, can be downloaded from our website. I will now hand over to Jean-Yves, who will run you through the Group highlights and the financial highlights of the third quarter. Jean-Yves.
Jean-Yves Charlier
Management
Thank you, Bart and good afternoon. Let me start by focusing on the highlights for the quarter. We are pleased to report that the third quarter 2016 results are in line with expectations with financial results particularly strong in Pakistan and Ukraine, offset by continued weakness in Algeria. Mobile data revenues continued to grow at a strong pace, by 28% year on year in the quarter. In terms of operating cash flow, the margin was at a healthy 24.5% in the third quarter. As a result, our 2016 guidance is confirmed, abide at the lower end of the range for service revenue and underlying EBITDA margin, as we outlined in August during the second quarter results presentation. We also confirm that the CapEx ratio for the year is trending towards the bottom of the range at 17%, resulting in an expectation of a strong operating cash flow margin for the year. During the quarter, VimpelCom also made progress on its strategic priorities, as we focused on two major in-market consolidation transactions. On the 1st of July, we closed the acquisition of Warid in Pakistan with financials consolidated, starting from this third quarter. We are delivering the first synergies and saw both revenue and EBITDA growing by more than 44% year on year in Pakistan. On the 1st of September, the European Commission cleared the Italian transaction and the Ministry of Economic Development in Italy did the same on the 24th of October. With all the regulatory conditions satisfied, we expect to complete the transaction shortly, and we are planning to update you in more detail on the call that we will organize after the closing. Furthermore, as we are preparing for closing, WIND reported a strong performance in the quarter, returning to mobile service revenue growth of 2% and EBITDA…
Andrew Davies
Management
Thank you, Jean-Yves, and a good afternoon from me as well. This quarter's financial performance is in line with both expectations and the guidance we provided for 2016. Our reported results in the third quarter were still impacted by currency headwinds in many of the countries where the Group operates, although there was -- with a softening trend compared to the last few quarters, as I'll discuss in more detail in a little while. Reported service revenue showed a 3% year on year decline, while on an organic basis it grew by 0.6% year on year, driven by strong performance in Pakistan and Ukraine, which more than compensated for continued weakness in Algeria. Mobile data revenue continued to grow at a double digit pace, posting an organic growth of 28% year on year. Underlying EBITDA also grew organically by 0.6% year on year, leading to a stable margin of 40.6%. Our last twelve month CapEx to revenue ratio for Q3 is 16.7% and the operating cash flow margin was 24.5%, a 1.1% percentage point growth year on year. Finally, as Jean-Yves already mentioned, we've confirmed our guidance for 2016, and I'll also discuss this in more detail at the end of the presentation. Slide 9 has a slightly different summary of our key financials, and here I want to focus on operating cash flow margin, which grew to 23.6% when measured on a rolling last 12 month basis, 1.7 percentage points up compared to the same period last year. This is important as it demonstrates that despite the weakened currencies in our footprint, we are returning to meaningful cash flow generation and I'll discuss this in more detail later in the presentation as well. Moving on to slide 10, as you know, the geographies we operate in expose our financials…
Operator
Operator
Thank you. [Operator Instructions] We will now take our first question from Roman Arbuzov from UBS. Please go ahead.
Roman Arbuzov
Analyst
Thank you very much for taking the question. My first one is on Russia. So you sound quite cautious on the Russian business, highlighting increasing competition. I guess your peers would agree with that in terms of the 2016 year as a whole, it has been a pretty tough year. But also your peers are perhaps a little bit more optimistic in terms of the future prospect and in particular, I think your peers would say as that Q3 is the likely trough for the industry in terms of the operations and financials. So I was wondering whether you actually share this view and do you indeed think of Q3 being perhaps some sort of an inflection point for VimpelCom and Russian telecom's industry more broadly perhaps? So some color here would be very helpful. And then secondly, just on the towers, could you please give us an update on where you are in terms of potential tower deals and do you still expect to perhaps close a transaction before the end of the year? Thank you very much.
Jean-Yves Charlier
Management
Okay, thanks Roman I’ll start off with Russia, just giving you our perspective. I think first thing we continue to see a challenging market overall in Russia. We think that our relative performance remains good within that competitive framework. Obviously we'll be able to judge that in the next few weeks when our competitors release their numbers, but that was certainly the case if you're calling Q1 and in Q2. But I would be more prudent than saying that it's all upside from here. So I don't think that we have any signals right now in the business that would allow us to make that statement with a high degree of comfort. Andrew, do you want to add anything to that in terms of color?
Andrew Davies
Management
I think the only thing in terms of color, I think worth noting is that we see the competitive environment as definitely still being pretty intense. Devices and also either increasing data allowances for even at the higher end of the tariff structures going to forms of unlimited Internet traffic. So I think I agree with Jean-Yves that we are right to be somewhat more on the prudent side.
Roman Arbuzov
Analyst
I have a very quick followup on that one. The distribution in Russia in particular seems to be the long awaited source of upside for everybody. I mean do you share this too? Do you think something can be done in the distribution, something significant?
Jean-Yves Charlier
Management
I think that's a fair statement. We are looking at all options of restructuring the distribution structure in Russia. But I think it's too early to comment on the benefit. But certainly I think help improve the conditions and the structural conditions that we see in the Russian marketplace, particularly with the unusually high level of churn that the industry witnesses overall. I think just coming back on towers, nothing to report on this call on towers. We are continuing to work on a number of transactions and as we've always said, we're wanting to ensure that these transactions are truly value creative and it will take the time it will take.
Roman Arbuzov
Analyst
Thank you very much.
Operator
Operator
We will now take our next question from Alex Kazbegi from Renaissance Capital. Please go ahead.
Alex Kazbegi
Analyst
Just I appreciate again that you defined your dividend policy sort of say prudently and I understand you may not be saying much more from here, but just to understand what do you yourself think is a meaningful amount in dividends. Maybe you can comment on that one. Second question is about Italy, the fees which the regulator is talking about additional payments for the frequencies. What is your view on that? Do you need to take that so to say? Or do you think the portion at least, which will be passed to Iliad will be then taken by Iliad. I mean what stage of that is? Then maybe a last quick one. You already answered partial on distribution, but are there discussions on your asset maybe sale or split up going on or it's too premature to discuss those things? Thank you very much.
Jean-Yves Charlier
Management
You want to start off Andrew?
Andrew Davies
Management
Yes, thank you, Alex. I'll take the first part of that three part question. So on dividends, I think you kind of almost answered your own question. I think we've said what we're going to say publicly for now and we're not going to give any kind of color context or informal guidance as to what we would consider to be a more substantive dividend policy for now. I think that would be vastly premature and prejudging clearly a meaningful dialogue that we need to have with the Board on that. So I'm afraid on that one you're just going to have to do your own modeling and math.
Jean-Yves Charlier
Management
Okay, on Italy, look, I think that the first point to make at this stage this is all speculation as to what we're going to see in terms of fees and conditions for spectrum renewal in the marketplace. I think I'd add just two comments. First, it is unlikely if the speculations are confirmed, to have much of an impact on the merger or the cost structure of the once merged win 3 Italia, certainly from a P&L point of view. If we need to pay these out up front versus over time or annually as previously, yes, there will be a cash flow impact. But P&L immaterial at this stage. And I just want to remind everyone that we have a binding set of contracts with Iliad for the transaction. The only condition is the closing of the transaction. And as I said, we are expecting this shortly. So I think that's as much as we can say about Italy on distribution. On Russia, as I said, I mean too early to comment. We're exploring all options, including Euroset and when we have something to communicate we'll obviously do that at the appropriate point in time.
Alex Kazbegi
Analyst
Okay, thank you very much.
Operator
Operator
We will now take our next question from Herve Drouet from HSBC. Please go ahead.
Herve Drouet
Analyst
Yes, good afternoon. Coming back on Russia, the fact that you are a bit, let's say, more cautious maybe with some of your peers looking forward, is it because you think if there are some price moves you might be a bit less keen to follow any price move? I mean it looks like in some regions some of your competitors are starting to indicate put and show price increase. I mean is it something that we might see happening in some regions do you think? Or do you believe the current consumer environment is still difficult and therefore of your cautiousness. And just to come back on distributions, what do you think prevent (inaudible) anything to be done on the distribution either a particular criteria or item that makes the current restructuring of the distribution difficult from your point of view?
Jean-Yves Charlier
Management
Okay, maybe I can start. I think, look, on Russia I'm just cautious because I don't know what would be required within the industry to see an improvement in the trading conditions of the three main players in the industry. I mean let's not forget that the biggest challenging dimension right now is just the macroenvironment in Russia and consumer spending. So I'm not seeing any improvement on that front and hence I think that's got to be the main driver of a potential stabilization or further stabilization of the Russian marketplace. So this is why I think we remain prudent. I think that -- and I'm not sure that we see at this stage any improvement in pricing in any one of the regions. I think it's too early. Yes, there are some price movements, but just too early. So look, I just want to remain cautious at this stage and I go back in saying that we think that our relative performance in the third quarter will again have been good. So it's not concerns of our underlying performance. I'm just much more cautious about where the overall market is today and where it's potentially going to go. And until we see I think some improvements at the macro level, I just don't see why this market is going to improve in the telecom sector.
Andrew Davies
Management
Absolutely. And I mean just as a bit of extra color, Herve, I think what we see in Moscow in particular, which you have to remember represents a good 40% of the total country's revenue pool, is one of our primary competitors in particular has been disproportionately impacted by Tele2's entry into that market. And as Jean-Yves mentioned, we actually think in terms of relative market shares that we've had another decent quarter in Russia. And what we do see is one of the primary competitors being more focused on price aggression in order to try to counteract what their experience in Moscow.
Jean-Yves Charlier
Management
So I supposed I'd probably end then just saying I hope I'm wrong and I hope the competition is right in being much more bullish than we are at this stage. Well, we'll see in the next couple of quarters as they unfold. On distribution, I think nothing specific in terms of criteria to change the structure of distribution at this stage. As I said, we're exploring all options, too early. It's obviously complex and I think there's not much more than we can say.
Herve Drouet
Analyst
Okay, thank you.
Operator
Operator
We will now take our next question from Wissam Charbel from Farallon Capital Europe. Please go ahead.
Wissam Charbel
Analyst
Thank you for taking the call. I just had a quick question about your statement surrounding the Uzbekistan cash up streaming. I was just wondering if you could give us a bit more details on is that a going forward statement about future cash flows or is it about the existing cash on balance sheet and what, if any, would be withholding taxes we should factor in?
Jean-Yves Charlier
Management
Andrew, well, talk about Uzbekistan cash up-streaming.
Andrew Davies
Management
I think it's a little too early at this stage, Wissam, to go into specifics here. But we are looking at fully compliant, let me stress, but indirect ways of up streaming cash from Uzbekistan. So we're not talking here about just a straightforward dividend stream and directly converting Uzbeks into dollars. So one of the things that we'd be looking at is some commodity type trading. And within that, as we've disclosed in the 20-F of quite rigorously and very transparently what we do see in the sense of an indirect market is that the real exchange rate that exists for that kind of transaction is markedly different to the official exchange rate that we use to consolidate the Uzbek operations. So we're not going to be paying withholding tax necessarily, but there would be quite a reasonable haircut that we would take on the indirect translation of some into dollars outside of the country.
Wissam Charbel
Analyst
Thank you, sir.
Operator
Operator
We will now take our next question from Igor Semenov from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Igor Semenov
Analyst
This is just my question you just answered, but maybe a little more broadly, can you talk a little bit about the ability of any other operations to upstream cash to headquarters and at what kind of level? Is it kind of full EBITDA or at what level of cash flow generation would you upstream cash to headquarters from the businesses? Thank you.
Andrew Davies
Management
Yeah, thank you Igor. The upstreaming of cash is a topic that's of immense focus for us right now. I think clearly from a historical perspective we've been too reliant on dividends just coming from Russia. And that's not sustainable going forward as we look towards a more meaningful dividend policy which is why I highlighted a few breakthroughs, if you like, in my discussion earlier. So Algeria, clearly we've got the dividend arrangements with SNI where we can get at least 42.5% of the net income paid out in the form of dividends just by a majority Board vote. But as I highlighted, we actually paid out the dividend in excess of that minimum amount in Q3 and the only reason we kept it at the level we did is that there are some debt maturities and still some overdue foreign vendor payables in the country in the next 12 months. And so the amount of cash that we've paid out in the form of dividend really did kind of fully use up the short-term liquidity that we have in that business. Ukraine, another breakthrough within this quarter. So they fully repaid within by the end of Q2 all of the intercompany debt that we put into the business about a year and a half ago as part of funding the 3G license and the network rollout. And this quarter they've been able to resume a modest dividend flow of $5 million a month. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, we had historically voluntarily blocked, if you will, because the legal entity structure was such that the withholding tax burden on the dividend flows was too much. That's been solved within the last 6 to 12 months, so we now feel able to upstream cash out of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan and just pay a relatively modest amount of withholding tax. And going forward, we expect that from this year onwards that we're going to be able to upstream cash out of Pakistan and Bangladesh as well. So significant improvements across most parts to the footprint, quite candidly, when it comes to the ability to upstream cash.
Igor Semenov
Analyst
Right. Can I just go back to Pakistan and Bangladesh? Then what else did you say? This year or -?
Andrew Davies
Management
I kind of meant within the next 12 months, yes. So it didn't mean necessarily by the end of 2016, just to be clear.
Igor Semenov
Analyst
Okay. And the cash that you will upstream, the main use for that would be repayment of group level debt, of [indiscernible]?
Andrew Davies
Management
I think we've got - yes, if we start upstreaming cash on a regular basis, that then gives us much more confidence that we don't need the significant liquidity cushion to start off with. We've got it at headquarters level, so we can then start using that cash that we've already got at headquarters to repay gross debt. And then also the future cash upstreaming will in part be used to fund what we're hoping is a more meaningful dividend policy going forward.
Igor Semenov
Analyst
Right. Thank you very much.
Operator
Operator
[Operator Instructions] We will now take our next question from Ivan Kim from VTB Capital. Please go ahead.
Ivan Kim
Analyst
Good afternoon. Two questions please. First on, Italy performance, which improved a lot this quarter. I was just wondering the revenue pickup and EBITDA pickup as a result, is it totally related to markets becoming much more benign? And what kind of trends you see there for maybe 2017? So, [indiscernible] shall we see on the standalone kind of organic sort of the basis significant improvement in pricing and the competition? Two questions please. First on Italy performance, which improved a lot this quarter, I was just wondering the revenue pickup and EBITDA pickup as a result, is it totally related to markets becoming much more benign? And what kind of trends you see there for maybe 2017? So [indiscernible], shall we see on the standalone kind of organic sort of the basis significant improvement in pricing and the competition?
Jean-Yves Charlier
Management
Okay, just maybe starting with the CEO search in Russia, we're evaluating a number of internal candidates, but also completely external candidates. I think we want to appoint the best executive to take on this role. Having said that, there is for us no rush in the sense that with the appointment of Kjell Johnsen, who is the head of the region, is a fluent Russian speaker, we have somebody that knows very well the Russian marketplace and is responsible for the Russia entity ultimately. So I think that the management structure that we now have at VimpelCom allows us to be less reactive and have the right bench strength when these type of situations occur. On Italy, I think that the performance you see in the third quarter is a result of two things. First, I do think that the market is improving in Italy. We are seeing improved trends and that's driving top line mobile service revenue growth. But we also see that the focus on our cost structure and our performance transformation program is yielding results and hence the EBIDTA line moving or growing even further. So I think as we think about 2017, and as we enter into the merger implementation plan, I think that we expect quite good trading conditions overall in the Italian marketplace. Now, I remain cautious about the latter part of 2017 with the entry of Iliad and the impact that that will have on the marketplace. Fundamentally I think there are two indicators to watch. The first is market share gains by Iliad and that I'm less concerned about. And the second I mention is obviously the ARPU impact and that obviously has a much greater impact on our P&L than the market share dimension. But I think overall, we're really pleased to see WIND's performance being very strong at just before closing of the transaction.
Ivan Kim
Analyst
Great. Thank you.
Operator
Operator
We will now take our next question from Igor Goncharov from BCS Global Market. Please go ahead.
Igor Goncharov
Analyst
Yes, thank you very much I just have one small question left. Obviously you made an announcement of the dividend up $0.035 and this time you called it an [indiscernible] dividend, and although you didn't use this language before you just called it a dividend. Is there any reason for using it this way [indiscernible]? Can we expect another dividend for the remainder of the year? Thank you very much.
Andrew Davies
Management
That’s a very good question Igor, thank you. I think I would answer in this way. I think it's a more technically correct way of describing it. I mean you can't possibly declare a final dividend if you're within the financial year that the dividend relates to. So you should always more accurately describe a dividend paid within the year as an interim dividend. Now if you then wanted to join up a couple of other dots, and interpolate to that also means that there may be a final dividend in Uzbek in 2016 then that's up to you. I'm not going to give any further guidance at this stage.
Igor Goncharov
Analyst
Thank you very much.
Operator
Operator
We will take our next question from Stella Cridge from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Stella Cridge
Analyst
Hi, there. I just wanted to ask about the debt maturities in 2017. So you've got $2.8 billion in total. And I was just wondering on two specific points what might the options be with regards to the Alpha Bank loan? Would you like to keep that in place if possible? And on the other dollar debt, do you think you might try to replace that with some local currency debt as part of your strategy or were you thinking about maybe refinancing some of the Eurobonds and the dollar market.
Andrew Davies
Management
Thank you very much Stella. I think we've had a number of discussions over several quarters about how we still need to further optimize our capital structure. So yes, while we've got the leverage ratio broadly in the right ballpark, there is still some work that we need to do on the debt structure with regard to maturities, structural issues, currency mix, et cetera. And I think going forward what we are going to look to do is to move more towards local currency funding, matching the debt structure that we have more evenly with the EBITDA generation, or maybe the operating cash flow generation. We're also going to look to remove all of the structural impediments that we currently have within the structure by which I mean mainly the upstream guarantees. And we are already hard at work on that. So I expect to deal with all of the maturities that you referred to, probably within the next two to three months. And the situation is slightly more acute than you mentioned, because we also have the RCF maturing in the early part of next year as well, which at the moment is completely undrawn. But we remain confident that we're going to be able to refinance all of these things in an away which makes much more sense going forward and which will further optimize the debt structure.
Stella Cridge
Analyst
And no comments specifically on the Alpha Bank loan?
Andrew Davies
Management
We're going to look at that - that's all part of it. I mean, we want to keep that loan in place, but maybe we - or keep certainly a facility in place, but maybe we look at that being part of the old currency matching exercise as well.
Stella Cridge
Analyst
Okay, thank you.