Earnings Labs

VEON Ltd. (VEON)

Q3 2021 Earnings Call· Thu, Oct 28, 2021

$50.41

-2.80%

Key Takeaways · AI generated
AI summary not yet generated for this transcript. Generation in progress for older transcripts; check back soon, or browse the full transcript below.

Same-Day

+0.00%

1 Week

-5.21%

1 Month

-14.69%

vs S&P

-17.14%

Transcript

Operator

Operator

Good afternoon and good morning everyone. Welcome to the VEON’s Third Quarter Results presentation for the period ending 30 September. Nik Kershaw here, VEON’s Group Director of Investor Relations. I'm pleased to be joined in the room today by Kaan Terzioglu, our Group CEO, along with our Group CFO, Serkan Okandan and Alex Bolis, Group Head of Corporate Strategy Communications Investor Relations. Our country CEO is on the line with us today as well. Today's presentation will begin with the key highlights and the business update from Kaan. Following this Serkan will discuss the detailed financial results. We will then hand it back to Kaan to discuss our outlook and priorities for the full year 2021. As ever, we will ensure there's ample time for your questions, but we would ask that you save these for the end of the presentation. Before getting started, I would like to remind you that we may make forward-looking statements during today's presentation, which involve certain risks and uncertainties. These statements relate in part to the company's anticipated performance and guidance for 2021 particularly in light of the COVID pandemic, future market developments and trends, operational and network development and network investment and the company's ability to realize its targets and commercial and strategic initiatives including current and future transactions. Certain factors may cause our results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements, including the risks detailed in the company’s Annual Report on Form 20-F and other recent public filings made by the company with the SEC. The earnings release and the earnings presentation, each of which includes reconciliation of non-IFRS financial measures presented today can be downloaded from our website. With that, let me hand over to Kaan.

Kaan Terzioglu

Management

Thank you, Nick. Good morning to all and welcome to the presentation of our third quarter results. Today we are reporting a second consecutive quarter of double digit growth. On a local currency basis in Q3 group revenues grew by 11.2% year-on-year, bringing growth for the first nine months to 9.7% at the top end of our guidance. Local currency EBITDA in Q3 was up by a very solid 9.1% given the ongoing strong focus on cost efficiency. Normalizing for one of items which Serkan will discuss in more detail our EBITDA like-for-like was up 13.6% year-on-year. This strong performance was visible in reported currency as well, where revenues grew by 10.2% and EBITDA increased by 8.6. In this quarter, we started the value crystallization of our infrastructure assets with the announced tower sale in Russia. We accelerated the transformation of our operating companies into digital operators expanding our multi-play and double play 4G base by 38% and we expanded the reach and scope of our digital services including JazzCash and Toffee. Given this better than anticipated performance, we are increasing our full year EBITDA guidance to minimum 8% local currency growth, and maintaining our current revenue guidance at the high single digit local currency. Moving on to slide 6, I want to give you a country by country detail of our local currency performance. This shows revenue growth across all of our markets with double digit growth in five of our countries. These are positive EBITDA trends across all our markets other than in Pakistan, where the growth was impacted by a one off in the prior year. Adjusting for this one off Pakistan EBITDA was up 24.6% year-on-year. Ukraine, Pakistan, Kazakhstan our core growth markets all showed strong double digit underlying growth in both revenue and EBITDA. Russia…

Serkan Okandan

Management

Thanks Kaan. Good morning and good afternoon to all participants. In the coming slides I will elaborate on our financial results for the third quarter in more detail. Before turning to the numbers summarized here on slide 16, it's important to note the number one of items that impact year-over-year comparisons with the third quarter of last year. These are set out in the appendix of this presentation deck. But to summarize, there are some key items to bear in mind. In Q3 Last year, there were two items, both impacting EBITDA. First, reversal of a provision of $52 million in Pakistan, and second, recording a tax provision of $15 million in Uzbekistan. In Q3 this year, there are three items to note. First, we recorded the government grant on radio frequency fees of $6 million above EBITDA in Kazakhstan. Second, triggered by the court decision, our export license in Pakistan is now capitalized as an intangible asset, and is now amortized above EBITDA rather than previously reported as an operating cost above EBITDA. This uncertainty around the accounting for this has now finally been resolved. Lastly, our Algeria business is now accounted for as a discontinued operation given the ongoing sales process. I should explain how these impacts certain reported numbers as we look at revenues and EBITDA in detail in the following slides. However, setting these aside, Q3 was another quarter with strong results for the group. Revenue rose by 10.2% year-over-year on a reported basis, and 11.2% in local currency terms, driven by an acceleration of growth in Russia, and double digit growth rates in all our other key markets. The results overall investment in 4G networks is clear in another strong quarter for data revenue, which grew by 18.8% year-over-year in local currency terms, and supported…

Kaan Terzioglu

Management

Thank you, Serkan. Let me close our presentation with a reminder of our priorities for 2021 and our progress to-date. One, we are progressing well on the path to increase our 4G subscriber penetration. With a 10 percentage point increase year-on-year, we have now reached 46%. Our target over the medium term is to reach 70% penetration. Two, we remain focused on delivering growth in Russia as we accelerate the total revenue growth with further progress on subscriber growth, most notably in 4G. Maintaining this is a top priority in the months ahead as we strengthen our market position. Three, Ukraine, Pakistan, Kazakhstan continue to deliver double digit growth. We are also encouraged to see the good revenue trends in Bangladesh a market which offers good structural growth opportunity. Four, our digital operators strategy is being executed through a deepening customer relationship with our subscribers supported by the growth of multi-play base. With the encouraging growth rates in JazzCash and Toffee, crystallization of value for these products remains an important focus. We maintain our discipline in managing our portfolio. Acquisition of minority shares in Georgia and restructuring of the ownership of Beeline Uzbekistan are examples of the quarter. We remain ambitious on costs and continue to improve group's cost efficiency under project optimum, both at the country level and in our headquarters. Finally, we remain committed to realizing the value of our considerable infrastructure portfolio. We announced the sale of Russian towers and we have established separate tower entities in Ukraine and Pakistan. In Bangladesh, we are considering various options to crystallize the value from our infrastructure. On December 7, we will be hosting our capital markets day where we will discuss our strategic priorities and high level financial outlook for 2022. With that, I would like to thank you for your attention and turn the call over to the operator for your questions. Operator?

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] Yes. And your first question comes from the line of Henrik Herbst from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Please ask your question.

Henrik Herbst

Analyst

Great, thanks very much and congratulations on the turnaround in Russia. I was just wondering if I could ask you on Russian questions…

Kaan Terzioglu

Management

Coming from the system? You operator is not operating. Can we get the questions? Yes.

Henrik Herbst

Analyst

Can you hear me? Hello?

Operator

Operator

Henrik Herbst, please continue.

Henrik Herbst

Analyst

Yes. Can you hear me? Hello?

Operator

Operator

Please continue.

Henrik Herbst

Analyst

Can you hear me?

Kaan Terzioglu

Management

We can hear you.

Henrik Herbst

Analyst

Great, thank you very much and congrats, again on strong set of results. Can I ask you about the margin progression in Russia and how we should think about the much slower EBITDA growth, I guess in service revenue growth. I know that you've had sort of prioritized network investments and turning the top line around in Russia. But I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit about what you're investing OpEx at the moment. And as we go into 2022, should we see the gap between service revenue growth and EBITDA growth closing with hopefully EBITDA growth picking up I guess? That was the first question. And then the second question I guess is just if you can talk a little bit around the ARPU growth in Russia as well. It seems like ARPU growth is slow, although you're seeing very impressive taking about 4G, and as you point out the ARPU on 4G customers it's a lot better. So just your thoughts around that, I guess. And then where we are in terms of potentially adjusting prices upwards? Thanks very much.

Kaan Terzioglu

Management

Thank you. And I guess Alex, on the top of -- on the call as well. I will give the word to him. And I share my thoughts on. First of all, I'm extremely satisfied with what the team is doing in Russia executing our turn around. It's been really remarkable. And I get your question about the EBITDA and why the EBITDA growth is less. As I have mentioned numerous time over the quarters this year was a critical year for us, our network management functions. And I visited actually our technology campus last week Friday and I saw that this presentation was almost 95% completed with excellent results in terms of the team that you can provide to our customers. Of course, there's an impact cost base. On the second side, that's not as we expand our network and as Serkan mentioned we have allocated almost 60% of our CapEx to Russia is that every single engineering and construction team in Russia is running out to rollout base stations, of course additional impact on the run rate. Now, you also asked about the ARPU growth, the situation in terms of network quality pricing and the NPS where we are coming from. Until late July we have deliberately stayed away from making upward price adjustments which the market actually is quite justified to make for and you will see us more active on that side. May I ask if Torbakhov Alexander is available for taking the calls for providing further color? Can we un-mute Alexandra? Alexander Torbakhov is our General Manager in Russia Beeline.

Serkan Okandan

Management

While waiting for Alexander maybe I comment about margin because you ask about the long term EBITDA trajectory. I would suggest to look at EBITDA in absolute numbers going forward, especially in Russia. Why I'm seeing this because first of all, the revenue composition is transforming in Russia and in each and every revenue bracket we have different marginality. And on top of that, with the closure of this Russia tower deal starting from next year cost structure will also be transformed to a different model. So both of them will impact the EBITDA margin, so probably the margins will not be apple-to-apple comparable next year to this year. So I would suggest in the long term, keep an eye on the EBITDA in absolute terms rather than margins, EBITDA margins specifically for Russia.

Kaan Terzioglu

Management

Again sorry, it looks like we have difficulty in un-muting Alexander. But I want to use this opportunity to congratulate Alexander on a successful rebranding of our operation Beeline with the new logo and customer value proposition saying we are on your side. Thank you Alexandra. Please, let's take the second question.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Cesar Tiron from Bank of America. Your line is open, please ask your question.

Cesar Tiron

Analyst

Yes, hi, everyone. Thanks for the call and for taking my questions. So I'll go with the first one. Going back again to the Russian out-backs. I think there were in the past some different layers that you did mention to improve the efficiency of that business and that would have included, for example, closing down more stores. Is that still on the cart right now?

Kaan Terzioglu

Management

Cesar thanks a lot for the question. We are continuously optimizing our distribution network. We have almost reached 1,000s in terms of store closures in terms of digital optimizations. But as we do that, we really look into the business model as well. And look the ways of how franchising works, how digital channels works and I will note your question, and I will definitely ensure first of all Alexander can talk in the next quarterly call and we will give you further color on these issues as well.

Cesar Tiron

Analyst

Great, thank you so much. I just wanted to ask a second one if that's okay. I wanted to understand on the potential unlock of the balance sheet dramatics, obviously we've seen the Russian tower deal. Are you guys also looking to monetize towers in other countries? And what progress have you made on this team? Thanks.

Kaan Terzioglu

Management

Cesar thanks a lot. As I mentioned numerous times I think there is no telco in the world has the luxury to have exclusive towers. Network sharing is a must and it will of course, start with the passive side of the equation. So our commitment to slides value of our tower assets across our portfolio is remained strong. We have already established standalone entities in Pakistan and Ukraine. In Bangladesh, the regulation doesn't allow us to own our company and we are in various different strategic alternative talks with the independent operators there as well. So this objective continues but please keep in mind that the way we are going to crystallize the value of towers and unlock the value from the balance sheet, this is not only a sales and leaseback transaction. When we look to tower deals, we look to sustainable operational cost reductions, CapEx reductions as well as a healthy portion of future multi tenancy revenues coming our way. That's how we managed to secure a very good deal in Russia. And if you look from an upfront consideration perspective, probably with the new currencies it is now slightly about a billion dollars. But in terms of the net present value that this operation will bring to our company, in terms of CapEx, OpEx savings and the ability to up from share future tendency increases has been remarkable, and we are very satisfied with that.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And our next question comes from the line of Ondrej Cabejšek from UBS. Your line is open. Please ask your question. Ondrej Cabejšek: Hi, thanks for the presentation and congratulations on the good numbers. Just a follow up in terms of Russia, can you breakdown for us the kind of 4G and non 4G ARPU in Russia and how you see the share of the 4G subscribers going forward? I believe you're kind of behind some of the market leaders in terms of the ratio, even though that's growing quite fast. So can you maybe elaborate a bit on what are the structure -- your ratio was a bit lower than the market leaders and how fast you think you can catch up? And then in terms of free cash flow, couple of questions, please. You mentioned on the Pakistan situation. Can you give us maybe some list or risk kind of assessment in terms of one off specifically spectrum going over the next four to six quarters? Then what is the outlook for working capital over the short to medium term? And at what kind of minimum free cash flows equity levels as we get towards the end of the year would you be happy considering proposing a dividend? Thank you.

Kaan Terzioglu

Management

Ondrej. Thank you very much. Let me take the 4G ARPU question. And I will leave the free cash flow question to Serkan to answer. First of all, the choices that has been made in the past, I don't think it's productive to go back and analyze why we were so late in picking up the 4G penetration so low. I mean, in 24 months, what I can tell you is we move the 4G penetration among our subscriber base from 22 to 46 and the part that I liked the most in the last three months, every single month, we increased this with one full percentage points. So it means actually we are accelerating on catching up with the 70%. Now, this is very critical because if you look to actually presentation page 14, as customers move from being a single play customer, meaning that they only consume one service from us either being data or voice versus a customer being double-play and being double play on 2G or 3G versus 4G there is an incredible ARPU uplift impact. And it is not only visible in the ARPU uplift, but it is also visible in the churn reduction, even visible in minutes of use. So the more smartphones, the more 4G consumed, actually even usage of normal voice services has a positive impact up to two times. So this is why we are critically looking into this. And the other issue, why it is so critical is now that we are at almost 50% in terms of 4G penetration the real accelerated part of our strategy is going to come into play. And that is the digital operators and making sure that we go, we move away from selling number of minutes, number of SMS, number of gigabytes to selling digital life cycle bundles. Every operator who has done this transition has been able to increase their growth rate by further tens. And that's really what we are focused on now that we are in the territory of 4G base getting stronger and stronger you will see us moving into the digital operators strategy at various speeds in different countries. Maybe Serkan to you on the cash flow.

Serkan Okandan

Management

As far as I could follow up you ask three questions like you start with Pakistan EBITDA one offs and then free cash flow and then dividends. So I will try to follow the same sequence. First Pakistan, as I mentioned in the presentation, there are one offs both last year and this year. But I think this year's one off is more important than last year's because last year it was one time. But, this year since we have clarified now the accounting of this renewal of rights expiry license that will be an ongoing positive boost for the EBITDA in Pakistan because going forward amortization of EBITDA, sorry amortization of the license will go below EBITDA than amortization line. So that will give a quarterly boost to Pakistan, EBITDA depending on the FX of course, $5 million to $6 million per quarter. So that that's a permanent advantage that we are going to benefit in Pakistan. Having said that, when I look at the numbers in Q3, in Q3 we generated roughly $60 million EBITDA, sorry, $115 million free cash flow in Pakistan and that's a very strong number. And going forward we believe that despite there are lots of investments coming in Pakistan. We can continue this free cash flow generation in the coming quarters as well. That's about Pakistan. The second one was overall EFCF expectations in Q4 and going forward. Of course, Q3 was remarkably strong in terms of EFCF, we have generated more than $300 million cash in one quarter almost more than $100 million per month. Historically, Q4 is not as strong as Q3, because it's end of the year, everybody's trying to close their accounts and also, vendor payments are probably increased compared to Q3, and also capitalization of projects, CapEx projects…

Serkan Okandan

Management

So, I missed it, in one sentence working capital and I hand over to Kaan for spectrum. Working capital, we see that there are improvement areas in working capital. We can do better working capital management in the coming quarters, but probably Q4 will not be one of those because it's end of the year. But if we take a longer trajectory we can improve our capital further.

Kaan Terzioglu

Management

Thank you Serkan and with regard to the spectrum question, you have probably noticed how disciplined we are when it comes to making spectrum investment decisions. In Pakistan we actually decided not to bid. It was a principal decision. We will never make mistakes of making money in rupees and Rubles and investing in dollars to spectrum. And basically that was the driving force. Now naturally in markets like Pakistan and Bangladesh population and the opportunity that population will bring will always require additional spectrum. We feel very comfortable in Pakistan for the next two years with also some reforming and shutting down to 3G over the time to meet our needs. But of course, if there are changes in regulatory environments allowing local currency tenders we will consider that. Next year we are going to have a renewal of our license as well which we are planning in our financial projections. With regard to Bangladesh, we have acquired additional spectrum this year. We now hold 25% of the spectrum in Bangladesh, and the 25% spectrum compared to our current almost 18% market share shows actually the upside that the country represents to us. And again, looking to the potential we will always be looking for additional opportunities in this area as well.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Ivan Kim from Xtellus Capital. Your line is open. Please ask your question.

Ivan Kim

Analyst

Yes, good afternoon. Two quick questions for me. Firstly on Moscow leasing. Any further thoughts on that? And then secondly, on the Russia growth in 22. So the recovering third quarter is definitely better compared to the second. So there is sequential improvement. But then I'm just wondering, given the current LTE penetration runway what sort of growth we should be expecting ballpark in Russia in 22? Do you think it's going to be a high single digit? So you think it's going to be mid single digits very roughly? Thank you.

Kaan Terzioglu

Management

So Ivan thanks a lot for the questions. Let me start with the Russian 2022 outlook. I think I made this comment in our last quarterly call as well. My desire around this time next year to see high single digit double digit growth in Russia. I made a special disclosure on Q3 announcement giving you a little bit of a glimpse on what happened in September this quarter. And in September, we actually reached a service revenue of 5.3% growth year-on-year for the month, and 10.2% overall. So this indicatively tells you that what I'm saying is not that far off from possibility given the LTE penetration increases and this year, we will see more discipline, inflationary pricing in our ratio operation. In terms of Moscow opening up for trading opportunities, we will keep you updated about the progress. And as we have indicated, that we are very focused on making sure that the expectations of our shareholders are met in terms of wider coverage of different time zones and currencies and hopefully we'll keep you informed over the next couple of weeks of that progresses. Alex do you think you would like to?

Alexander Torbakhov

Analyst

Yes. Absolutely yes. On the general listings point of course, we do appreciate that investor desire to follow us more from relevant local markets where we are active and of course from different time zones. So absolutely whatever we can do to facilitate to encourage it's obviously our priority. So as Kaan mentioned, we'll keep you posted, but we are extremely geared to any opportunity of this kind.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And your next question comes from the line of Alexander Vengranovich from Renaissance Capital. Your line is open. Please ask your question.

Alexander Vengranovich

Analyst

Yes. Good afternoon. Very quick clarification question on equity free cash flow you've generated over the first nine months. So basically, before like last quarter, I think you showed before the deconsolidation of Algeria, you show roughly around $50 million of equity free cash flow which transformed into kind of a zero equity free cash flow after the deconsolidation of Algeria for the first half of 21. So I'm just wondering whether this difference really comes from Algeria? And the second question here, whether you will consider this equity free cash flow generated by Algerian operations when you will be calculating the equity free cash flow eligible for the dividend payments this year? Thank you.

Serkan Okandan

Management

Firstly, the contribution of Algeria to free cash flow is positive. In overall, if you talk about ballpark figures, it's generating roughly $100 million EFCF every year. So we have excluded Algeria in our numbers. So this impressive performance of EFCF in Q3 is not coming from Algeria. Genuinely the EFCF performance in Q3 was much better than the first half of the year. And the second part of the question, whether we will include or exclude Algeria EFCF actually we have received the dividends from Algeria from 2020 results. So we received the cash from Algeria based on our shareholding of course. So, when we assess the dividend distribution, beginning of the year, we will take into consideration the reported EFCF numbers which is 321, year-to-date September. So, we will add Q4 and take that into consideration.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And we do have follow up question from the line of Henrik Herbst from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Please ask your question.

Henrik Herbst

Analyst

Yes. Thanks very much. Sorry, I wasn't I didn't really sort of guess what you mean that the revenue mix is shifting, but your comments around thinking about EBITDA in Russia in absolute terms. But do you mean EBITDA? Does that mean that the revenue mix is worsening and we shouldn't expect much growth or if you can just clarify that. And then I just also wonder when it comes to the tower disposal. Shouldn't that be positive for EBITDA margin if anything I mean I guess I thought you wouldn't be much of a change to EBITDA given that the under IFRS 16 lease costs are going outside of EBITDA. So yes, if you could just sort of clarify what you mean and Kaan maybe when you talk about high single digit web growth next year in Russia. Is that top line or is that EBITDA or both? Thank you very much.

Kaan Terzioglu

Management

Let me start with the question about the double digit growth side. I would expect that these would converge to each other both on mobile service revenue top line. Top line actual is of course, as the revenue combination that Serkan and I will, I think also will clarify. But as we enter into new markets, including more device sales driving our 4G, more system integration type of project, AdTech projects, hosting projects, which we will be entering these will be accretive in terms of nominal EBITDA but it might come with less margins in some areas, and definitely for devices. So that's the clarification I would make.

Serkan Okandan

Management

Actually my comment was there's a kind of couple of developments in Russia which will impact the EBITDA margin, both on the revenue and the cost side. Let me elaborate a little bit more. As Kaan mentioned, we have different revenue streams in Russia. We have traditional core telco revenues. We have device business. We have digital services, and we look at them segment by segment and the growth rates in each and every segment is different from the other. That's number one. The second, the margin, EBITDA margin for each segment is different as well. So there are some segments which we are having high margins, some segments, for example, device segment, which we have single digit margins. So the composition of this revenue will impact the EBITDA margin. The second thing which is specific for Russia that maybe the first part is generic, but the second thing is specific for Russia after closing the tower sale deal, the cost structure of Russia will also change because of this tower deal. So that will also impact the EBITDA from margin perspective if you look at long term perspective, if you look at two to three year’s time. So combination of both you may not see a stable trend in EBITDA margin. And on top of this, of course, we should take into consideration the seasonality as well. So that was what I was trying to explain. But in any case since we don't have any margin business in any case, the trajectory and obsolete amount in EBITDA will give us more stable indication about the growth in the business.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. And we do have also follow up question from the line of Ondrej Cabejšek from UBS. Your line is open. Please ask your question. Ondrej Cabejšek: Yes, thank you. Two follow ups for me, please. In terms of the towers, again, you mentioned some of the impacts on your margin. Do you have a bit more clarity now after some assessments what exactly the impact on your net leverage could or should be once that is closed? And then you also mentioned the potential for active sharing. I'm wondering if this is something that you are already exploring whether this is kind of the next step after you finalize all of the passive deals that you would like to do and whether do you see this currently becoming more of a topical so with your peers in various markets because of the rising energy costs? Thank you.

Kaan Terzioglu

Management

Ondrej first of all, let me answer the parts with the active sharing. We are already inactive sharing agreements in certain regions with more than one of our competitors in Russia. And as I mentioned earlier for me network sharing of all options, passive, active, spectrum sharing, these are always things that we will look from an open mind perspective. And the moment we see opportunities we will engage. In some markets, like Kazakhstan, and especially in Russia, we are already doing this and we look forward to increasing the scope of these activities as well. With regard to the impact of leverage of towers in Russia please Serkan.

Serkan Okandan

Management

For EBITDA at the group level, the impact will be slightly positive at the group level. In leverage, of course, depending on the fixed rates, etc, we believe that we can de-leverage the balance sheet around $350 million. Why it is less than 1 billion because we have to book the lease liabilities in our balance sheet when we close the transaction. So net-net, we believe that we can decrease the leverage by $350 million. Ondrej Cabejšek: Thank you, and in combination with the EBITDA plus, what kind of impact would that have on the net debt to EBITDA? You mentioned, there are two positive effects.

Kaan Terzioglu

Management

You mean leverage multiple you mean. It is? Ondrej Cabejšek: Yes, exactly.

Kaan Terzioglu

Management

0.1, 0.2 times positive.

Operator

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions]

Kaan Terzioglu

Management

No more questions. Thank you very much. We appreciate your time and trust in our company and looking forward to seeing you in London in the upcoming Capital Markets Day. Thank you very much.

Serkan Okandan

Management

Thank you very much.

Kaan Terzioglu

Management

December 7. Thank you so much.